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Author Topic: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run  (Read 5539 times)

Marcus92

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Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« on: December 09, 2019, 02:06:12 PM »
Over the past 5 seasons, 80 teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 (one commonly accepted measure of a "deep tournament run"). Here's a breakdown by seed line:

16 out of 20 1-seed teams (80%) advanced to the Sweet 16
12/20 2-seed teams (60%)
13/20 3-seed teams (65%)
11/20 4-seed teams (55%)
8/20 5-seed teams (40%)
2/20 6-seed teams (10%)
7/20 7-seed teams (35%)
2/20 8-seed teams (10%)
2/20 9-seed teams (10%)
1/20 10-seed teams (5%)
5/20 11-seed teams (25%)
1/20 12-seed teams (5%)

A few notes/comments:

• Teams seeded 1 through 4 accounted for 52/80 Sweet 16 teams (65%)
• Teams seeded 5 through 8 accounted for 19/80 Sweet 16 teams (24%)
• Teams seeded 9th or lower accounted for 9/80 Sweet 16 teams (11%)

This is admittedly a limited sample size. But there seems to be a substantial difference between top 4 seeds and the rest of the field.

Last season, only 2 teams seeded 5th or lower -- 5-seed Auburn and 12-seed Oregon -- made the Sweet 16. In other words, the top 4 seeds claimed 14 of the 16 spots. The top 4 seeds claimed 12 spots in the Sweet 16 in 2017, 10 spots in 2016, and 9 spots in 2015.

The 2018 tournament was a clear exception. Nine teams that made the Sweet 16 were seeded 5 or lower -- outnumbering the 7 teams seeded 1 through 4.

Based on the latest KenPom rankings, Marquette would likely be a 6 seed if the NCAA tournament started today. I think this team still has the potential to improve.

We've seen the makings of a Top 25 defense against quality teams like Purdue and Kansas State. Outside shooting, considered a big question mark before the season, has been encouraging -- with 6 players averaging at least 35% outside the arc and team 3PT% ranked top 10 nationally. Players like Sacar, Jamal and Greg have shown signs they can take on bigger roles offensive roles. MU's free throw rate is also impressive: 42.3%, good for 18th best in the country per KenPom.

A couple big concerns remain. One is turnovers. With a 21.4 TO% (272nd in Division I), this is an area the team has actually gotten worse compared to last season. The second is 2PT%, which has dropped from middle-of-the-road last season to 43.3% (313rd) this year.

Markus has already shown improvement taking care of the ball, with a turnover rate of 17.5%. If the backcourt trio of Sacar (23.2 TO%), Koby (25.3%) and Greg (24.2%) can follow suit, and if Koby can shake his shooting slump, this could be a team worthy of a 4 seed or better -- and a potential Sweet 16 run.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 02:49:51 PM by Marcus92 »
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Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 02:10:52 PM »
How many actual schools in those five years?

I’m going to guess 35, but that could be wildly off.
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 02:13:01 PM »
I was only counting seeds and didn't note the teams. I'll go back and check later tonight when I have more time. Your guess seems like a pretty good one.
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 02:40:57 PM »
By my count, 43 different schools have made the Sweet 16 during the past 5 seasons. Here's the list, organized by number of appearances:

Gonzaga (5)

Duke (4)
Kentucky (4)
North Carolina (4)

Kansas (3)
Michigan (3)
Oregon (3)
Purdue (3)
West Virginia (3)
Wisconsin (3)

Arizona (2)
Florida St. (2)
Michigan St. (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Syracuse (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Texas Tech (2)
UCLA (2)
Villanova (2)
Virginia (2)
Xavier (2)

Auburn (1)
Baylor (1)
Butler (1)
Clemson (1)
Florida (1)
Houston (1)
Indiana (1)
Iowa St. (1)
Kansas St. (1)
Louisville (1)
Loyola-Chicago (1)
LSU (1)
Maryland (1)
Miami, Fl (1)
NC State (1)
Nevada (1)
South Carolina (1)
Tennessee (1)
Utah (1)
Virginia Tech (1)
Wichita St. (1)
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 02:50:14 PM by Marcus92 »
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM »
So it's not a crapshoot, hey?

willie warrior

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2019, 04:07:07 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

TSmith34

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2019, 04:18:03 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.
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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2019, 04:23:47 PM »
By my count, 43 different schools have made the Sweet 16 during the past 5 seasons. Here's the list, organized by number of appearances:

Gonzaga (5)

Duke (4)
Kentucky (4)
North Carolina (4)

Kansas (3)
Michigan (3)
Oregon (3)
Purdue (3)
West Virginia (3)
Wisconsin (3)

Arizona (2)
Florida St. (2)
Michigan St. (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Syracuse (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Texas Tech (2)
UCLA (2)
Villanova (2)
Virginia (2)
Xavier (2)

Auburn (1)
Baylor (1)
Butler (1)
Clemson (1)
Florida (1)
Houston (1)
Indiana (1)
Iowa St. (1)
Kansas St. (1)
Louisville (1)
Loyola-Chicago (1)
LSU (1)
Maryland (1)
Miami, Fl (1)
NC State (1)
Nevada (1)
South Carolina (1)
Tennessee (1)
Utah (1)
Virginia Tech (1)
Wichita St. (1)


So only 5 of the 43 are from non-Power 6 conferences.  Of the five, one is Gonzaga, two are from the American (Wichita and Houston), one from MVC (Loyola) and one from Mountain West (Nevada)

The only one of these to have more than one S16 appearance are the Zags.

Really goes to show how concentrated college basketball has become.
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4everDawson

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 04:29:00 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

Maybe because we also have you and all the bad karma that brings.
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

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No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2019, 05:17:24 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them. 

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2019, 05:18:28 PM »
 
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

 ::)   Yawn
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BM1090

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2019, 05:55:04 PM »
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them.

And it wasn't easy in 2003, 2011 or 2012, either. Could have easily lost to HC or Mizzou. Could have easily lost to Syracuse. Could have easily lost to Murray State. I'm too young to remember 1994.

Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2019, 06:45:38 PM »
And it wasn't easy in 2003, 2011 or 2012, either. Could have easily lost to HC or Mizzou. Could have easily lost to Syracuse. Could have easily lost to Murray State. I'm too young to remember 1994.

1994 we kicked Kentuckys ass!! Still have the ticket!!
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tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2019, 07:02:43 PM »
If this team stays healthy and gels as I think it can, I am more optimistic than I was one year ago about the prospect of a sweet 16 run.    I predicted in November of 2018 being on the losing end of a 5-12 upset.     The team needs to clean up turnovers and get a little more consistent.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mileskishnish72

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 07:26:01 PM »
I don’t think this is a sweet 16 team. Hope I’m wrong but we’ll see.

harryp

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 07:38:23 PM »
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way

auburnmarquette

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 07:39:00 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

And the coaches before buzz made it twice in 30+ years
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
I don’t think this is a sweet 16 team. Hope I’m wrong but we’ll see.

Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2019, 08:09:10 PM »
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them.

I agree with your crapshoot mantra but if you stay true to it then wouldn't it not be a miracle that we made it?

oldwarrior81

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2019, 08:12:55 PM »
as an aside, all 15 teams that are currently in the ACC, have made a sweet 16 since 2000.  Led by Duke making the sweet 16 in 15 of 20 years.

Big 12:  9 of 10 teams:  Kansas leads with 13 appearances.
BigTen:  9 of 14 teams:  Michigan State with 12.
Big East:  7 of 11:  (including UConn)  UConn and Xavier with 7 years.
Pac 12:  8 of 12 teams:  Arizona 10 appearances.
SEC:   11 of 14 teams:  Kentucky with 12.

based on the current conferences and not the conference they were in when they made the appearance.

tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2019, 08:13:53 PM »
Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.
I see a team with depth, good guards, size, shooters.   Not perfect and a lot can go wrong, but there are a lot functional pieces.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

BCHoopster

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2019, 08:20:33 PM »
Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.

Teams have figured out how to control Markus, tall physical guards give him real trouble.  Hard to shoot over.  He can still score but has to learn
how to pass better in the box, to much tall timber.  Once he learns how to do that, then it is up to his teammates to hit the shots.  Cain or Bailey have to be on.  I am hoping once Wojo gets thru this cycle of centers, it has been to long, to find a center that can shoot an outside shot.
That would open up the middle for drives, that hurts Markus and any other player driving to the hoop since the center is stuck on the low post all the time.  Secondly, what is the deal with the stupid weave on top all the time, what a waste. Explain what he is trying to do but to waste time off the clock, are we the Globetrotters, is that were he stole that play?

Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2019, 09:07:21 PM »
So it's not a crapshoot, hey?

Seeding counts. Getting a top 4 seed means the committee considers you one of the 16 best teams in Division I. And the higher your seed, the more the matchups are stacked in your favor (at least from a ranking standpoint).

That said, I was somewhat surprised to see that 20% of 1-seeds -- 1 out of every 5 -- failed to make the Sweet 16 over the past 5 seasons. Those are supposed to be the four best teams in college basketball. Their opponents are, at best, a 16-seed and an 8-seed (basically Top 60 and Top 30 teams, respectively). It's not a crapshoot. But a substantial number of even the most heavily favored teams fall earlier than expected.
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Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2019, 09:10:14 PM »
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way

Not sure I agree with that.  Plenty of examples of teams that have destroyed their first two opponents to get to the Sweet 16.  Of course you are correct that many have not gone that way and the games could have gone either way.

"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2019, 09:29:16 PM »
Not sure I agree with that.  Plenty of examples of teams that have destroyed their first two opponents to get to the Sweet 16.  Of course you are correct that many have not gone that way and the games could have gone either way.

Exhibit A: 2 seed Villanova in 2016.

On their way to the Sweet 16, they beat 15 seed UNC-Asheville by 30 and 7 seed Iowa by 19 -- then crushed 3 seed Miami by 23 to advance to the Elite Eight. That's an average winning margin of 24 points over the first three games.

Even with a 5-point win over Kansas and a 3-point win against UNC in the title game, the Wildcat's average margin of victory throughout the NCAA tournament was 20.7 points per game. Their 44-point win over 2 seed Oklahoma in the Final Four was one of the most dominant performances I've ever seen. Nova scored 1.51 points per possession, shooting 77.4% from 2-point range and 61.1% from beyond the arc. Simply incredible.
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