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Author Topic: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run  (Read 4376 times)

Marcus92

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Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« on: December 09, 2019, 02:06:12 PM »
Over the past 5 seasons, 80 teams have advanced to the Sweet 16 (one commonly accepted measure of a "deep tournament run"). Here's a breakdown by seed line:

16 out of 20 1-seed teams (80%) advanced to the Sweet 16
12/20 2-seed teams (60%)
13/20 3-seed teams (65%)
11/20 4-seed teams (55%)
8/20 5-seed teams (40%)
2/20 6-seed teams (10%)
7/20 7-seed teams (35%)
2/20 8-seed teams (10%)
2/20 9-seed teams (10%)
1/20 10-seed teams (5%)
5/20 11-seed teams (25%)
1/20 12-seed teams (5%)

A few notes/comments:

• Teams seeded 1 through 4 accounted for 52/80 Sweet 16 teams (65%)
• Teams seeded 5 through 8 accounted for 19/80 Sweet 16 teams (24%)
• Teams seeded 9th or lower accounted for 9/80 Sweet 16 teams (11%)

This is admittedly a limited sample size. But there seems to be a substantial difference between top 4 seeds and the rest of the field.

Last season, only 2 teams seeded 5th or lower -- 5-seed Auburn and 12-seed Oregon -- made the Sweet 16. In other words, the top 4 seeds claimed 14 of the 16 spots. The top 4 seeds claimed 12 spots in the Sweet 16 in 2017, 10 spots in 2016, and 9 spots in 2015.

The 2018 tournament was a clear exception. Nine teams that made the Sweet 16 were seeded 5 or lower -- outnumbering the 7 teams seeded 1 through 4.

Based on the latest KenPom rankings, Marquette would likely be a 6 seed if the NCAA tournament started today. I think this team still has the potential to improve.

We've seen the makings of a Top 25 defense against quality teams like Purdue and Kansas State. Outside shooting, considered a big question mark before the season, has been encouraging -- with 6 players averaging at least 35% outside the arc and team 3PT% ranked top 10 nationally. Players like Sacar, Jamal and Greg have shown signs they can take on bigger roles offensive roles. MU's free throw rate is also impressive: 42.3%, good for 18th best in the country per KenPom.

A couple big concerns remain. One is turnovers. With a 21.4 TO% (272nd in Division I), this is an area the team has actually gotten worse compared to last season. The second is 2PT%, which has dropped from middle-of-the-road last season to 43.3% (313rd) this year.

Markus has already shown improvement taking care of the ball, with a turnover rate of 17.5%. If the backcourt trio of Sacar (23.2 TO%), Koby (25.3%) and Greg (24.2%) can follow suit, and if Koby can shake his shooting slump, this could be a team worthy of a 4 seed or better -- and a potential Sweet 16 run.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 02:49:51 PM by Marcus92 »
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Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #1 on: December 09, 2019, 02:10:52 PM »
How many actual schools in those five years?

I’m going to guess 35, but that could be wildly off.
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #2 on: December 09, 2019, 02:13:01 PM »
I was only counting seeds and didn't note the teams. I'll go back and check later tonight when I have more time. Your guess seems like a pretty good one.
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #3 on: December 09, 2019, 02:40:57 PM »
By my count, 43 different schools have made the Sweet 16 during the past 5 seasons. Here's the list, organized by number of appearances:

Gonzaga (5)

Duke (4)
Kentucky (4)
North Carolina (4)

Kansas (3)
Michigan (3)
Oregon (3)
Purdue (3)
West Virginia (3)
Wisconsin (3)

Arizona (2)
Florida St. (2)
Michigan St. (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Syracuse (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Texas Tech (2)
UCLA (2)
Villanova (2)
Virginia (2)
Xavier (2)

Auburn (1)
Baylor (1)
Butler (1)
Clemson (1)
Florida (1)
Houston (1)
Indiana (1)
Iowa St. (1)
Kansas St. (1)
Louisville (1)
Loyola-Chicago (1)
LSU (1)
Maryland (1)
Miami, Fl (1)
NC State (1)
Nevada (1)
South Carolina (1)
Tennessee (1)
Utah (1)
Virginia Tech (1)
Wichita St. (1)
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 02:50:14 PM by Marcus92 »
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #4 on: December 09, 2019, 03:44:10 PM »
So it's not a crapshoot, hey?

willie warrior

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #5 on: December 09, 2019, 04:07:07 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

TSmith34

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #6 on: December 09, 2019, 04:18:03 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.
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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2019, 04:23:47 PM »
By my count, 43 different schools have made the Sweet 16 during the past 5 seasons. Here's the list, organized by number of appearances:

Gonzaga (5)

Duke (4)
Kentucky (4)
North Carolina (4)

Kansas (3)
Michigan (3)
Oregon (3)
Purdue (3)
West Virginia (3)
Wisconsin (3)

Arizona (2)
Florida St. (2)
Michigan St. (2)
Notre Dame (2)
Oklahoma (2)
Syracuse (2)
Texas A&M (2)
Texas Tech (2)
UCLA (2)
Villanova (2)
Virginia (2)
Xavier (2)

Auburn (1)
Baylor (1)
Butler (1)
Clemson (1)
Florida (1)
Houston (1)
Indiana (1)
Iowa St. (1)
Kansas St. (1)
Louisville (1)
Loyola-Chicago (1)
LSU (1)
Maryland (1)
Miami, Fl (1)
NC State (1)
Nevada (1)
South Carolina (1)
Tennessee (1)
Utah (1)
Virginia Tech (1)
Wichita St. (1)


So only 5 of the 43 are from non-Power 6 conferences.  Of the five, one is Gonzaga, two are from the American (Wichita and Houston), one from MVC (Loyola) and one from Mountain West (Nevada)

The only one of these to have more than one S16 appearance are the Zags.

Really goes to show how concentrated college basketball has become.
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4everDawson

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2019, 04:29:00 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

Maybe because we also have you and all the bad karma that brings.
You actually have a degree from Marquette?

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No...and after reading many many psosts from people on this board that do...I have to say I'm MUCH better off, if this is the type of "intelligence" a degree from MU gets you. It sure is on full display I will say that.

Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #9 on: December 09, 2019, 05:17:24 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them. 

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tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #10 on: December 09, 2019, 05:18:28 PM »
 
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

 ::)   Yawn
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BM1090

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #11 on: December 09, 2019, 05:55:04 PM »
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them.

And it wasn't easy in 2003, 2011 or 2012, either. Could have easily lost to HC or Mizzou. Could have easily lost to Syracuse. Could have easily lost to Murray State. I'm too young to remember 1994.
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Mr. Sand-Knit

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #12 on: December 09, 2019, 06:45:38 PM »
And it wasn't easy in 2003, 2011 or 2012, either. Could have easily lost to HC or Mizzou. Could have easily lost to Syracuse. Could have easily lost to Murray State. I'm too young to remember 1994.

1994 we kicked Kentuckys ass!! Still have the ticket!!
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tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #13 on: December 09, 2019, 07:02:43 PM »
If this team stays healthy and gels as I think it can, I am more optimistic than I was one year ago about the prospect of a sweet 16 run.    I predicted in November of 2018 being on the losing end of a 5-12 upset.     The team needs to clean up turnovers and get a little more consistent.   
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

mileskishnish72

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #14 on: December 09, 2019, 07:26:01 PM »
I don’t think this is a sweet 16 team. Hope I’m wrong but we’ll see.

harryp

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #15 on: December 09, 2019, 07:38:23 PM »
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way

auburnmarquette

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #16 on: December 09, 2019, 07:39:00 PM »
But wait, how come MU has not made it. After all, we have Wojo.

And the coaches before buzz made it twice in 30+ years
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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #17 on: December 09, 2019, 07:46:17 PM »
I don’t think this is a sweet 16 team. Hope I’m wrong but we’ll see.

Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.
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Galway Eagle

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #18 on: December 09, 2019, 08:09:10 PM »
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them.

I agree with your crapshoot mantra but if you stay true to it then wouldn't it not be a miracle that we made it?
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oldwarrior81

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #19 on: December 09, 2019, 08:12:55 PM »
as an aside, all 15 teams that are currently in the ACC, have made a sweet 16 since 2000.  Led by Duke making the sweet 16 in 15 of 20 years.

Big 12:  9 of 10 teams:  Kansas leads with 13 appearances.
BigTen:  9 of 14 teams:  Michigan State with 12.
Big East:  7 of 11:  (including UConn)  UConn and Xavier with 7 years.
Pac 12:  8 of 12 teams:  Arizona 10 appearances.
SEC:   11 of 14 teams:  Kentucky with 12.

based on the current conferences and not the conference they were in when they made the appearance.

tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #20 on: December 09, 2019, 08:13:53 PM »
Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.
I see a team with depth, good guards, size, shooters.   Not perfect and a lot can go wrong, but there are a lot functional pieces.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

BCHoopster

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #21 on: December 09, 2019, 08:20:33 PM »
Based on how they've played through 9 games, I don't think they're a Sweet 16 team, either. Too undisciplined. Too inconsistent.

But I believe Marquette has the talent, experience and depth to become one. There are a lot of players who are either brand new to the team (Koby, Jayce, Symir) or taking on more prominent roles (Sacar, Brendan, Jamal, Greg). Hopefully they can continue to improve as they figure out how to play together.

Teams have figured out how to control Markus, tall physical guards give him real trouble.  Hard to shoot over.  He can still score but has to learn
how to pass better in the box, to much tall timber.  Once he learns how to do that, then it is up to his teammates to hit the shots.  Cain or Bailey have to be on.  I am hoping once Wojo gets thru this cycle of centers, it has been to long, to find a center that can shoot an outside shot.
That would open up the middle for drives, that hurts Markus and any other player driving to the hoop since the center is stuck on the low post all the time.  Secondly, what is the deal with the stupid weave on top all the time, what a waste. Explain what he is trying to do but to waste time off the clock, are we the Globetrotters, is that were he stole that play?

Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2019, 09:07:21 PM »
So it's not a crapshoot, hey?

Seeding counts. Getting a top 4 seed means the committee considers you one of the 16 best teams in Division I. And the higher your seed, the more the matchups are stacked in your favor (at least from a ranking standpoint).

That said, I was somewhat surprised to see that 20% of 1-seeds -- 1 out of every 5 -- failed to make the Sweet 16 over the past 5 seasons. Those are supposed to be the four best teams in college basketball. Their opponents are, at best, a 16-seed and an 8-seed (basically Top 60 and Top 30 teams, respectively). It's not a crapshoot. But a substantial number of even the most heavily favored teams fall earlier than expected.
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Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2019, 09:10:14 PM »
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way

Not sure I agree with that.  Plenty of examples of teams that have destroyed their first two opponents to get to the Sweet 16.  Of course you are correct that many have not gone that way and the games could have gone either way.

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Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2019, 09:29:16 PM »
Not sure I agree with that.  Plenty of examples of teams that have destroyed their first two opponents to get to the Sweet 16.  Of course you are correct that many have not gone that way and the games could have gone either way.

Exhibit A: 2 seed Villanova in 2016.

On their way to the Sweet 16, they beat 15 seed UNC-Asheville by 30 and 7 seed Iowa by 19 -- then crushed 3 seed Miami by 23 to advance to the Elite Eight. That's an average winning margin of 24 points over the first three games.

Even with a 5-point win over Kansas and a 3-point win against UNC in the title game, the Wildcat's average margin of victory throughout the NCAA tournament was 20.7 points per game. Their 44-point win over 2 seed Oklahoma in the Final Four was one of the most dominant performances I've ever seen. Nova scored 1.51 points per possession, shooting 77.4% from 2-point range and 61.1% from beyond the arc. Simply incredible.
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Lennys Tap

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2019, 09:51:05 PM »
In the last 40 years, we have made it that far how many times?  Five?  Miracle we made it that far in one of them.

True, but in the 4 years before Wojo got here we made it 3 times.

Cheeks

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2019, 09:57:38 PM »
True, but in the 4 years before Wojo got here we made it 3 times.

Yup, and on the front pages of the Tribune and all kinds of other things, too.

Just win
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Lennys Tap

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2019, 10:15:10 PM »
Yup, and on the front pages of the Tribune and all kinds of other things, too.

Just win

Jaimie Huffman (MSU) was dubbed "Shoes" by Al McGuire when he lost one in an NCAA game.

Our very own Jaimie (sic) became "Other Shoes" when he lied about new and damning info that would come out about Marquette's best coach not named Al McGuire.

No more Chico, Cheeks, Hoopaloop, Warrior Dad, etc.. From this day forward you'll be "Other Shoes".

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« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 10:36:28 PM by Lennys Tap »

79Warrior

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2019, 12:00:59 AM »
Yup, and on the front pages of the Tribune and all kinds of other things, too.

Just win

No kidding.

The Hamberdler

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #29 on: December 10, 2019, 03:27:20 AM »
Seeding counts. Getting a top 4 seed means the committee considers you one of the 16 best teams in Division I. And the higher your seed, the more the matchups are stacked in your favor (at least from a ranking standpoint).

Thank you very much for doing this analysis, it's great food for thought. Yum.

As we all know, being a top 4 seed practically guarantees a matchup in the 1st round with a low/mid major team. These are teams that qualified by beating other teams in a bad conference, and not just on their own merits. Getting a game like that on its own significantly increases the odds of a Sweet 16 run even if the round of 32 game is a coin flip.

Anecdotally, my opinion is that there is a significant drop-off in quality between an 11/12 seed and a 13/14 seed. Gotta be the biggest drop-off in any point in the seeding. IMO, that cliff is a (perhaps the) primary driver of what your analysis found.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2019, 03:29:13 AM by The Hamberdler »

Elonsmusk

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #30 on: December 10, 2019, 10:21:51 AM »
I see a team with depth, good guards, size, shooters.   Not perfect and a lot can go wrong, but there are a lot functional pieces.

Team is performing better than I anticipated going into the season.  Wojo showing some signs of improvement as coach - loved that he didn't yank Cain against K-State early after the two missed shots, one of which was the dunk attempt that flew out of his hands.  Historically that would have led to the bench for Jamal.

Team does play hard across the board, and that a credit to coaching staff as well.

Never would have thought going into the season this could be a Sweet 16 team, yet given the state of college basketball this year, and what we've shown thus far - maybe this is the year we finally win an NCAA tournament game under Wojo.


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tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #31 on: December 10, 2019, 10:25:41 AM »
Once we Symir reclassified and Wojo landed Jayce, I started thinking this team could be better than last year.   Still a long way to go, though.   Lots can still go wrong.
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It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

4everwarriors

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #32 on: December 10, 2019, 10:44:08 AM »
Lotsa golf left ta bee played yet, aina?
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tower912

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #33 on: December 10, 2019, 11:03:12 AM »
After running it through the translator, I think that is what I said in my last sentence. 
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

DoctorV

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #34 on: December 10, 2019, 12:19:23 PM »
Nice data Marcus.

I swear I’m over last season, but this is precisely why blowing all those under 4 min TO leads and losing all those close games last year really crushed MU.

Holding off Nova and splitting the Conf title, or even winning the last game at home, or even beating SH at the garden and then winning conf tourney (I understand no guarantee we win the final) would have likely giving MU a 4 seed because the overall resume was very strong.

With a 4 seed the season would’ve ended with much less pain imo. There would’ve been a conference title to hang the hat on (or possibly a conf tourney title) and IMO MU would’ve lost game 2 or later in the dance rather than the MURRAY St debacle.

I’m not saying getting a 4 seed or better would have avoided all the turmoil w the brothers, but it still would have left the season on a much more positive note and the team wouldn’t have the added stress it will have this March to win a game in the NCAA tournament under Wojo/Markus regime.

As for this year, a 4 seed or better would be spectacular. The conference is really strong so it won’t be an easy task, 5-8 seed would seem more likely at this point imo. That said, the foundation is there for a top 2/3 BE finish that would earn the top 4 seed

brewcity77

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2019, 12:30:57 PM »
Nice data Marcus.

I swear I’m over last season, but this is precisely why blowing all those under 4 min TO leads and losing all those close games last year really crushed MU.

Holding off Nova and splitting the Conf title, or even winning the last game at home, or even beating SH at the garden and then winning conf tourney (I understand no guarantee we win the final) would have likely giving MU a 4 seed because the overall resume was very strong.

With a 4 seed the season would’ve ended with much less pain imo. There would’ve been a conference title to hang the hat on (or possibly a conf tourney title) and IMO MU would’ve lost game 2 or later in the dance rather than the MURRAY St debacle.

I’m not saying getting a 4 seed or better would have avoided all the turmoil w the brothers, but it still would have left the season on a much more positive note and the team wouldn’t have the added stress it will have this March to win a game in the NCAA tournament under Wojo/Markus regime.

As for this year, a 4 seed or better would be spectacular. The conference is really strong so it won’t be an easy task, 5-8 seed would seem more likely at this point imo. That said, the foundation is there for a top 2/3 BE finish that would earn the top 4 seed
[/quote

The way last year ended was brutal. Holding on in just 1 or 2 of those games would've likely had us a line higher, where 75% of the teams went to the Sweet 16 (as opposed to the 5-line, where 75% lost day one).

Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2019, 02:54:12 PM »
Anecdotally, my opinion is that there is a significant drop-off in quality between an 11/12 seed and a 13/14 seed. Gotta be the biggest drop-off in any point in the seeding. IMO, that cliff is a (perhaps the) primary driver of what your analysis found.

I don't think this is merely opinion.

Here are the individual and average KenPom rankings for teams at each seed line in the 2019 NCAA tournament:

11 seed
Saint Mary's (31)
Ohio St. (44)
Belmont (49)
Arizona St. (57)
Temple (69)
St. John's (88)
Avg. KenPom rank: 56.4

12 seed
Oregon (28)
Murray St. (51)
New Mexico St. (53)
Liberty (58)
Avg. KenPom rank: 47.5

13 seed
UC Irvine (73)
Vermont (76)
Northeastern (89)
St. Louis (106)
Avg. KenPom rank: 86.0

14 seed
Yale (77)
Northern Kentucky (96)
Old Dominion (113)
Georgia St. (124)
Avg. KenPom rank: 102.5

Even in a year where the 11 seeds were weaker than usual (ideally, their average KenPom ranking should be somewhere around 42), there's a big drop-off in team quality starting at the 13 seed line.

For comparison, the 86th ranked KenPom team was BYU, which didn't win a single Top 50 game and missed the postseason altogether.

The 102nd ranked KenPom team was UCLA, which racked up 16 losses -- including 7 out of 10 during one stretch. That run was punctuated by a home loss to #109 Utah and a 24-point road drubbing by #112 Stanford.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2019, 02:56:42 PM by Marcus92 »
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brewcity77

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2019, 03:42:39 PM »
The 11-seeds were also skewed by putting all the play in teams on those lines. Still kind of bewildering that teams like Temple, ASU, & St John's, who were all sub-60 going into the tournament, got bids.

Eldon

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2019, 03:50:33 PM »
The 11-seeds were also skewed by putting all the play in teams on those lines. Still kind of bewildering that teams like Temple, ASU, & St John's, who were all sub-60 going into the tournament, got bids.

IIRC, the committee said that they valued these teams' SOS.  The Johnnies, for instance, beat #1 Duke that year.  (And maybe had some other marquee win...I'm forgetting at the moment)

brewcity77

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2019, 04:33:08 PM »
IIRC, the committee said that they valued these teams' SOS.  The Johnnies, for instance, beat #1 Duke that year.  (And maybe had some other marquee win...I'm forgetting at the moment)

I think the committee valued them being high majors. St John's scheduled horribly (#330 NCSOS per kenpom) & got blown out by Duke.

ManeCity83

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2019, 04:49:50 PM »
No one gets to the Sweet 16 without winning some that could go either way

No one?  It seems that when UW-Madison gets to the Sweet 16, it's commonly by getting a decent seed, winning a first round game against an inferior team, then taking advantage in the second round of an even easier matchup caused by a 13-4 or 14-3 upset in the first round.   Uncanny how they get those matchups.
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oldwarrior81

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2019, 05:21:43 PM »
From 2000 (the Final Four team under Bennett) the Badgers had a streak of beating the lower seeded teams and not doing so well against the better seeds.

against teams seeded 1-8:  they were 1-7
against teams 9-16:  they were 10-3

2010   W-13, L-12
2009   W-5, L4
2008   W-14, W-11, L-10
2007   W-15, L-7
2006   L-8
2005   W-11, W-14, W-10, L-1
2004   W-11, L-3
2003   W-12, W-13, L-1
2002   W-9, L-1
2001   L-11

WarriorFan

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2019, 05:35:50 PM »
This team needs to prove two things to make a S16 run:

1.  It's more than Markus.  No problems when Markus goes off for 25 or 30, but there needs to be another 2-3 guys in double figures and playing well at the same time.  When Markus + Sacar + Cain or BB or ??? are "on" this team will be very difficult to stop.

2.  Coaching adjustments.  There have been a few (like the surprise zone) but to make the S16 there need to be adjustments that positively impact the game.  Traps, pressing for more than just shot clock, zone, running an actual offense, etc.  One I'd like to see is BB and Cain as the "bigs" along with Markus +2 of either Sacar/Greg/Koby.  That would create a lot of space.

Its DJOver

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2019, 05:53:39 PM »
Just because an adjustment isn't so drastic that everyone notices it (zone, press, dramatically different offensive style) does not mean that it can't be incredibly effective.  There was no major halftime adjustment in the Purdue game, we just had better intensity and execution in the second half.  Throwing something completely different out there may work for a possession or two, but there's a reason that we start out in the system that we do; because it's going to be the most effective in the long term.

Marcus92

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2019, 07:21:29 PM »
Since the tournament committee began seeding teams in 1979, Marquette has earned 20 NCAA bids. Here's how MU's seeds break down:

3 seed (1979, 2003, 2012, 2013)
4 seed (1996)
5 seed (2002, 2019)
6 seed (1994, 2008, 2009, 2010)
7 seed (1982, 1997, 2006)
8 seed (2007)
9 seed (1980, 1983)
10 seed (2017)
11 seed (2011)
12 seed (1993)

In the 5 NCAA tournaments where Marquette received a 4 seed or better, they've reached the Sweet 16 4 times (1979, 2003, 2012, 2013). MU's combined record in those games is 11-5, a winning percentage of 68.8%.

In the 15 other NCAA tournaments where Marquette was seeded 5 or lower, they've reached the Sweet 16 just twice (1994 and 2011). MU's combined record in those games is 7-15, a winning percentage of 31.8%.

Seeding matters.
« Last Edit: December 10, 2019, 07:31:11 PM by Marcus92 »
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Coleman

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2019, 11:15:07 AM »
I feel the same about this team now as I did at the beginning of the season, and how I have felt basically ever since the Hausers left.

We are a probably a 7 or 8 seed.  I think a realistic expectation is one NCAA tournament win. Sure, we could get lucky, pull a 6 seed and get the upset winner of a 14 vs 3 upset, and somehow make it into the Sweet 16, but it is unlikely.

This is not a top 25 team. I do think it is almost certainly an NCAA tournament team. Which means we are probably bound for a typical MU posteason, one and done in the tourney or round of 32.

Somewhat depressing. Not as depressing as missing the tournament. But it is reality.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2019, 11:19:10 AM by Coleman »

Tha Hound

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2019, 11:43:45 AM »
I feel the same about this team now as I did at the beginning of the season, and how I have felt basically ever since the Hausers left.

We are a probably a 7 or 8 seed.  I think a realistic expectation is one NCAA tournament win. Sure, we could get lucky, pull a 6 seed and get the upset winner of a 14 vs 3 upset, and somehow make it into the Sweet 16, but it is unlikely.

This is not a top 25 team. I do think it is almost certainly an NCAA tournament team. Which means we are probably bound for a typical MU posteason, one and done in the tourney or round of 32.

Somewhat depressing. Not as depressing as missing the tournament. But it is reality.

Or, you can look at it like Kenpom does (#23 team in the nation), or that we've had a succesfull non-conference start to the season, or that we have quite literally the best player in the country, a guy whos capable of putting up 40 on any given night.

It's not all doom and gloom everyone. I believe this team is better than what many of the debbie downers on this board think it is. I know Wojo hasn't had that success yet. But all it takes to change the narrative are a few late season W's.

Coleman

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #47 on: December 11, 2019, 11:51:49 AM »
Or, you can look at it like Kenpom does (#23 team in the nation), or that we've had a succesfull non-conference start to the season, or that we have quite literally the best player in the country, a guy whos capable of putting up 40 on any given night.

It's not all doom and gloom everyone. I believe this team is better than what many of the debbie downers on this board think it is. I know Wojo hasn't had that success yet. But all it takes to change the narrative are a few late season W's.

I honestly didn't think a 7 seed and a win in the NCAA tournament was "doom and gloom." Historically, that is an average to above average year for Marquette. It just gets old after a while, we all want to be playing on the second weekend more often.

rocky_warrior

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #48 on: December 11, 2019, 10:53:20 PM »
I believe this team is better than what many of the debbie downers on this board think it is.

I noticed a lot of them have been quiet since a relatively successful Orlando trip, and solid road win over Kansas St.

Goose

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2019, 12:59:29 AM »
I guess I fall into the Debbie downer camp and have been quiet based off a long layoff before they play a meaningful game. I stated earlier that they had one real tier one D1 player (play meaningful minutes at top ten program) and believe that more than when first stated.

Very happy to see some guys step up and play a big game, but need to see BB or others do it more than one game. Do not see any real reason to believe this team is better than a 7 or 8, and think that may be reach.

All that said, looking forward to see if Wojo can coach the guys up in BE play. IMO, success or failure will come down to Koby and Johnson and how they play. They remain the two guys that might be difference makers for this team.

MUDPT

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #50 on: December 12, 2019, 06:10:20 AM »
Mentioned this in a different thread, but Trank has a stat that compares a team’s profile and resume with other historical teams.

Last year’s MU team is on the list for most similar resume (as projected to the end of the season).  Last year’s team is the most similar efficiency profile to this year’s team. In my opinion, the loss of the bros made MU not as good, but they aren’t worse then they were last year.

If they go 12-6 again with their close wins/ losses sprinkled throughout the season, instead of concentrated in the calendar, they will likely be a 5 seed again. With way less consternation then a year ago.

4everwarriors

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #51 on: December 12, 2019, 10:31:22 AM »
Tyme ta wynn game won in da Tourney furst. Woj has nice skool spirted xmas lights doe, aina?
« Last Edit: December 12, 2019, 12:48:56 PM by 4everwarriors »
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79Warrior

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Re: Prospects for a Sweet 16 run
« Reply #52 on: December 12, 2019, 10:58:54 AM »
I guess I fall into the Debbie downer camp and have been quiet based off a long layoff before they play a meaningful game. I stated earlier that they had one real tier one D1 player (play meaningful minutes at top ten program) and believe that more than when first stated.

Very happy to see some guys step up and play a big game, but need to see BB or others do it more than one game. Do not see any real reason to believe this team is better than a 7 or 8, and think that may be reach.

All that said, looking forward to see if Wojo can coach the guys up in BE play. IMO, success or failure will come down to Koby and Johnson and how they play. They remain the two guys that might be difference makers for this team.

I think solid contributions from BB can help this team big time.