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Author Topic: Pomeroy  (Read 4106 times)

Lennys Tap

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #25 on: December 08, 2019, 06:38:20 PM »
How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.

C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2019, 06:46:41 PM »
C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.

...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times

AZMarqfan

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2019, 09:06:58 PM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

just pointing out that mathematically this isn't possible.  The wins and losses don't add up

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #28 on: December 08, 2019, 10:00:09 PM »
C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.

 I said I think it’s too early, too much movement still, but sure it has some directional usage...it just gets better with more games played.  I agree, not complicated.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2019, 01:43:55 AM by Cheeks »
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

MUDPT

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #29 on: December 08, 2019, 10:03:52 PM »
just pointing out that mathematically this isn't possible.  The wins and losses don't add up

It doesn’t, it’s just the average. By the way, if you look at most similar resume on Trank it’s last year’s MU team. If you look at most similar style it’s also last year’s MU team.

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #30 on: December 08, 2019, 10:05:38 PM »
...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times

I don’t know...there are lots of sources...I suppose we could line up Massey, Sagarin, and the 50+ others that are out there....but how are you going to judge?  What criteria? 

I’m sorry you think this is an issue of density....to answer your question on any given night I have seen Sagarin say a team should win, while Pomeroy says they should lose or win by less.  Because sports are actually played and not done by a computer algorithm, one site can be better in that given game than another in predicting.  Often many of the sites directionally correct (or wrong).  So I don’t know how to answer your question because unless someone is out there examining every game and comparing against all the various systems out there, none of us know what is better.

I like KenPom, use it often.  I like KenPom more in January than in November.   

Good day.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Heisenberg v2.0

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #31 on: December 09, 2019, 12:55:12 AM »
Dec 8 Kenpom standings

He still has the ENTIRE Big East in the top 100
Five (half the conference) in the top 30

13   Butler   
17   Seton Hall   
19   Villanova   
23   Marquette   
27   Xavier   
46   Georgetown
58   Creighton
61   DePaul
68   Providence
96   St. John's

TAMU Garcia

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #32 on: December 09, 2019, 12:57:29 AM »
Up another spot today to #23. Think we hopped over San Diego State who needed a last second three (and well contested one at that) to beat #317 San Jose State at home. They were 29 point favorites.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #33 on: December 10, 2019, 11:07:10 AM »
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion

I’m pleased you’ve back tracked on your comments & really meant, “I believe Pomeroy gets better later in the season, but it may be as good or better than any other source.”

That’s reasonable (albeit obvious that one may believe a predictive model becomes a bit better with more data).

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1202313930850238464
 
https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1203422352177954816

 

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #34 on: December 10, 2019, 02:44:53 PM »
I’m pleased you’ve back tracked on your comments & really meant, “I believe Pomeroy gets better later in the season, but it may be as good or better than any other source.”

That’s reasonable (albeit obvious that one may believe a predictive model becomes a bit better with more data).

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1202313930850238464
 
https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1203422352177954816

JayBee, we've already had this discussion and there is no backtracking.  I said similarly the same thing Nov 25th...and you responded to it.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=59234.msg1175551#msg1175551

Similar things said in the past here.  Really not sure what the trouble is.  I'll restate, I like Ken Pomeroy's stuff, I just like it BETTER after January.  I like a rare steak, but I like a medium-rare steak BETTER.   :)   It's not a matter of which system is better at the moment, though I'm sure there are some that could make the argument, it's simply the lack of data points still this early in the season.  It's what I've said consistently about these rating systems this early in the year...baskteball...football...doesn't matter.




"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #35 on: December 10, 2019, 03:34:03 PM »
JayBee, we've already had this discussion and there is no backtracking.  I said similarly the same thing Nov 25th...and you responded to it.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=59234.msg1175551#msg1175551

Similar things said in the past here.  Really not sure what the trouble is.  I'll restate, I like Ken Pomeroy's stuff, I just like it BETTER after January.  I like a rare steak, but I like a medium-rare steak BETTER.   :)   It's not a matter of which system is better at the moment, though I'm sure there are some that could make the argument, it's simply the lack of data points still this early in the season.  It's what I've said consistently about these rating systems this early in the year...baskteball...football...doesn't matter.

“I like it now but I like it better later” is far different than “it’s too early”. Glad you have recanted!

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #36 on: December 10, 2019, 05:31:56 PM »
“I like it now but I like it better later” is far different than “it’s too early”. Glad you have recanted!

It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Lennys Tap

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #37 on: December 10, 2019, 05:56:16 PM »
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America

Earlier it was simply "too early for Pomeroy". Period. Now it's too early "to put a TON of stock into Pomeroy". The two are not the same. Fact.

THRILLHO

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #38 on: December 10, 2019, 06:05:46 PM »
When you wrestle a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.

leever

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #39 on: December 10, 2019, 06:21:12 PM »
...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times
Chico's is female?  Who knew?

leever

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #40 on: December 10, 2019, 06:46:55 PM »
When you wrestle a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.
'I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.'
Winston Churchill

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #41 on: December 10, 2019, 07:00:55 PM »
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?

g0lden3agle

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #42 on: December 10, 2019, 07:04:50 PM »
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?

Nothing. 

What does It have to do with Cheeks' God given right to be wrong on the internet?  Everything.

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #43 on: December 10, 2019, 07:43:46 PM »
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 

God Bless America

So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)

News: Garcia dreams MU

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #44 on: December 10, 2019, 07:55:37 PM »
So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)
+100

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #45 on: December 10, 2019, 08:43:42 PM »
So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)

No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 


They are not without value now, nor did I say that.  But they are MORE valuable to me later in the season. 

On day one of the season, I think all these ratings have big holes.  That changes a bunch over a number of weeks.  You reach a point by February that the data doesn’t move much for most of the teams. 

Again, I don’t see what your point is.  Some value today...but somewhat limited because too soon...buyer beware...take with grain of salt.  Let it marinate, more data means better output and better informed in my opinion.  Nothing has changed on this from my perspective.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Cheeks

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #46 on: December 10, 2019, 08:46:48 PM »
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?

I often say it instead of cussing...it’s an old trick to avoid the swear jar that an old boss put into place years ago.  It is also something I hope happens....should we inventory all the things on Scoop that have nothing to do with the topic at hand?  Be a very long process.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Jay Bee

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #47 on: December 10, 2019, 08:47:59 PM »
No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 

They are not without value now, nor did I say that.

You literally said, “it’s too early” for kp. But glad you’re changing that now.

PS - you are going to call all these ratings “holistically solid”?? Good grief

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #48 on: December 10, 2019, 10:45:00 PM »
No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 


They are not without value now, nor did I say that.  But they are MORE valuable to me later in the season. 

On day one of the season, I think all these ratings have big holes.  That changes a bunch over a number of weeks.  You reach a point by February that the data doesn’t move much for most of the teams. 

Again, I don’t see what your point is.  Some value today...but somewhat limited because too soon...buyer beware...take with grain of salt.  Let it marinate, more data means better output and better informed in my opinion.  Nothing has changed on this from my perspective.

What did Jerry Palm say at lunch?

Benny B

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Re: Pomeroy
« Reply #49 on: December 10, 2019, 10:59:12 PM »
What did Jerry Palm say at lunch?

“More gravy.”
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.