MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: MuMark on December 07, 2019, 11:12:41 PM

Title: Pomeroy
Post by: MuMark on December 07, 2019, 11:12:41 PM
MU up to 24 after tonight's win and some positive performances from our schedule.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 07, 2019, 11:13:23 PM
Available without a subscription?
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: brewcity77 on December 07, 2019, 11:14:09 PM
We got as much from non-con as from the win itself. Ranking improved from 30 to 27 thanks to our non-con opponents going 9-1 on Friday & Saturday before tip-off, then jumped from 27 to 24 after the W.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: MuMark on December 07, 2019, 11:15:51 PM
We've played against the 14th toughest defensive SOS so far......our non conference SOS is 22.....it will get worse after the next 3.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: THRILLHO on December 08, 2019, 08:47:41 AM
Offense ranked 37 and defense 29, basically swapped from where they were at the start of the season (I don't recall exactly what it was but we ended last year at 32/45). The offense was so bad to start, I can see a trajectory for this team where the defense ranking stays about there and the offense improves slowly but surely. That could be a top 15 type team if it gets to where wojo teams have been historically.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: brewcity77 on December 08, 2019, 09:02:09 AM
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Uncle Rico on December 08, 2019, 09:05:23 AM
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

Texas Tech entered Big XII play in the 130’s on offense last year.  Thought that would be their undoing.  It gradually got better as Conference play unfolded. 
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: THRILLHO on December 08, 2019, 09:14:33 AM
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

I agree the offense might be overranked given our early games but it does look like it has turned a corner the last few games. Might even be top 20.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: LloydsLegs on December 08, 2019, 09:22:42 AM
Lots of old data still in there. I think the defense is significantly better than is current ranking, but also think the offense is worse. On the upside, I think teams are more likely to improve on the offensive end as the season goes on.

Would the old data be from the end of last year when the O was not so hot?  So maybe the Current O reality is not worse than its current ranking.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: brewcity77 on December 08, 2019, 09:28:14 AM
I agree the offense might be overranked given our early games but it does look like it has turned a corner the last few games. Might even be top 20.

I would love for that to be the case, but against quality opponents this year we have scored 436 points in 437 possessions. USC was the only quality opponent where we were over 1.10 ppp (1.16, next best was Purdue at 1.03).

The limited evidence so far would indicate an offense in the 100-125 range is more likely than top-20.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 08, 2019, 10:16:06 AM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: CountryRoads on December 08, 2019, 10:25:24 AM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

Last night was a big win. Assuming MU holds serve against the cupcakes, 10-8 should be safely in the field as it would be 20 wins.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: THRILLHO on December 08, 2019, 10:58:52 AM
I would love for that to be the case, but against quality opponents this year we have scored 436 points in 437 possessions. USC was the only quality opponent where we were over 1.10 ppp (1.16, next best was Purdue at 1.03).

The limited evidence so far would indicate an offense in the 100-125 range is more likely than top-20.

Kenpom also shows 1.03 against KSU, a pretty good defensive team. Although to make a point against me, I just noticed our PPP was only 1.03 against Jacksonville (would've guessed much higher).
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Mr. Sand-Knit on December 08, 2019, 11:10:14 AM
Simply cutting down on turnovers would send the offense skyrocketing.  Tough ask considering the cast of characters and increasingly difficult schecdule
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: MarquetteDano on December 08, 2019, 11:15:53 AM
Simply cutting down on turnovers would send the offense skyrocketing.  Tough ask considering the cast of characters and increasingly difficult schecdule

Just think what our defensive rating would be without the live ball turnovers. Our half court D is really good.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on December 08, 2019, 12:17:48 PM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

Butler isn't winning the league
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: PJDunn on December 08, 2019, 12:24:40 PM
They have as good a chance as anybody.  This is going to be an entertaining BE season.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: We R Final Four on December 08, 2019, 12:33:37 PM
I think Creighton with a few more wins, and Georgetown with a few less.
But, yes....it will be a dogfight.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 08, 2019, 12:59:38 PM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.

Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: mu03eng on December 08, 2019, 01:06:36 PM
Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?

Cheeks is right in that KenPom doesn't become its fully formed, useful data set until the 2nd week in January. Definitely usable but with a caveat
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 08, 2019, 01:34:10 PM
Too early for what? Is literally any ranking or opinion too early at this point for you... like 5 years to judge... January to judge ?  Or is there another source you’d value much more than kp as of today?

I am going off Ken’s comments himself, the rankings / ratings are more accurate with more data and tend to settle in a bit later.  Not a matter of one being better than another, more that KP and others are still quite fluid at this point in the year.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 08, 2019, 04:20:46 PM
I am going off Ken’s comments himself, the rankings / ratings are more accurate with more data and tend to settle in a bit later.  Not a matter of one being better than another, more that KP and others are still quite fluid at this point in the year.

No, you’re not. “Too early” and “are more accurate later” are completely different. Answer the Q or understand how silly your comment is
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 08, 2019, 04:21:48 PM
Cheeks is right in that KenPom doesn't become its fully formed, useful data set until the 2nd week in January. Definitely usable but with a caveat

So, you’re agreeing with me while saying you agree with Cheeks. Odd
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 08, 2019, 05:27:55 PM
No, you’re not. “Too early” and “are more accurate later” are completely different. Answer the Q or understand how silly your comment is

How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 08, 2019, 06:14:53 PM
How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.

Again, answer the question hey
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Lennys Tap on December 08, 2019, 06:38:20 PM
How are they different?  Too early and THUS less accurate today then what they will be later in the season.

Maybe I am not understanding what you think is silly, but seems pretty clear to me.  Similar comments made by Palm, Sagarin, Massey over the years.

C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 08, 2019, 06:46:41 PM
C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.

...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: AZMarqfan on December 08, 2019, 09:06:58 PM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion, but let's go with the predictions for the Big East.  Very tightly bunched.  Going to be a war.


Butler  11-7
Seton Hall  11-7
Villanova  11-7
Marquette 10-8
Xavier 10-8
Georgetown 8-10
Depaul 8-10
Creighton 8-10
Providence 7-11
St. John's 5-13

just pointing out that mathematically this isn't possible.  The wins and losses don't add up
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 08, 2019, 10:00:09 PM
C'mon, Cheeks. Just because Pomeroy might be MORE accurate later in the season doesn't mean it's TOO EARLY for it to be useful now. Isn't complicated at all, really.

 I said I think it’s too early, too much movement still, but sure it has some directional usage...it just gets better with more games played.  I agree, not complicated.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: MUDPT on December 08, 2019, 10:03:52 PM
just pointing out that mathematically this isn't possible.  The wins and losses don't add up

It doesn’t, it’s just the average. By the way, if you look at most similar resume on Trank it’s last year’s MU team. If you look at most similar style it’s also last year’s MU team.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 08, 2019, 10:05:38 PM
...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times

I don’t know...there are lots of sources...I suppose we could line up Massey, Sagarin, and the 50+ others that are out there....but how are you going to judge?  What criteria? 

I’m sorry you think this is an issue of density....to answer your question on any given night I have seen Sagarin say a team should win, while Pomeroy says they should lose or win by less.  Because sports are actually played and not done by a computer algorithm, one site can be better in that given game than another in predicting.  Often many of the sites directionally correct (or wrong).  So I don’t know how to answer your question because unless someone is out there examining every game and comparing against all the various systems out there, none of us know what is better.

I like KenPom, use it often.  I like KenPom more in January than in November.   

Good day.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Heisenberg v2.0 on December 09, 2019, 12:55:12 AM
Dec 8 Kenpom standings

He still has the ENTIRE Big East in the top 100
Five (half the conference) in the top 30

13   Butler   
17   Seton Hall   
19   Villanova   
23   Marquette   
27   Xavier   
46   Georgetown
58   Creighton
61   DePaul
68   Providence
96   St. John's
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: TAMU Garcia on December 09, 2019, 12:57:29 AM
Up another spot today to #23. Think we hopped over San Diego State who needed a last second three (and well contested one at that) to beat #317 San Jose State at home. They were 29 point favorites.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 10, 2019, 11:07:10 AM
Still too early for Pomeroy in my opinion

I’m pleased you’ve back tracked on your comments & really meant, “I believe Pomeroy gets better later in the season, but it may be as good or better than any other source.”

That’s reasonable (albeit obvious that one may believe a predictive model becomes a bit better with more data).

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1202313930850238464
 
https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1203422352177954816

 
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 02:44:53 PM
I’m pleased you’ve back tracked on your comments & really meant, “I believe Pomeroy gets better later in the season, but it may be as good or better than any other source.”

That’s reasonable (albeit obvious that one may believe a predictive model becomes a bit better with more data).

https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1202313930850238464
 
https://twitter.com/kenpomeroy/status/1203422352177954816

JayBee, we've already had this discussion and there is no backtracking.  I said similarly the same thing Nov 25th...and you responded to it.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=59234.msg1175551#msg1175551

Similar things said in the past here.  Really not sure what the trouble is.  I'll restate, I like Ken Pomeroy's stuff, I just like it BETTER after January.  I like a rare steak, but I like a medium-rare steak BETTER.   :)   It's not a matter of which system is better at the moment, though I'm sure there are some that could make the argument, it's simply the lack of data points still this early in the season.  It's what I've said consistently about these rating systems this early in the year...baskteball...football...doesn't matter.




Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 10, 2019, 03:34:03 PM
JayBee, we've already had this discussion and there is no backtracking.  I said similarly the same thing Nov 25th...and you responded to it.

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=59234.msg1175551#msg1175551

Similar things said in the past here.  Really not sure what the trouble is.  I'll restate, I like Ken Pomeroy's stuff, I just like it BETTER after January.  I like a rare steak, but I like a medium-rare steak BETTER.   :)   It's not a matter of which system is better at the moment, though I'm sure there are some that could make the argument, it's simply the lack of data points still this early in the season.  It's what I've said consistently about these rating systems this early in the year...baskteball...football...doesn't matter.

“I like it now but I like it better later” is far different than “it’s too early”. Glad you have recanted!
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 05:31:56 PM
“I like it now but I like it better later” is far different than “it’s too early”. Glad you have recanted!

It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Lennys Tap on December 10, 2019, 05:56:16 PM
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America

Earlier it was simply "too early for Pomeroy". Period. Now it's too early "to put a TON of stock into Pomeroy". The two are not the same. Fact.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: THRILLHO on December 10, 2019, 06:05:46 PM
When you wrestle a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: leever on December 10, 2019, 06:21:12 PM
...and I’m asking him what source is better. It’s amazing how dense she can be at times
Chico's is female?  Who knew?
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: leever on December 10, 2019, 06:46:55 PM
When you wrestle a pig, you both get dirty, but the pig likes it.
'I am fond of pigs. Dogs look up to us. Cats look down on us. Pigs treat us as equals.'
Winston Churchill
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: News: Garcia dreams MU on December 10, 2019, 07:00:55 PM
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 


God Bless America
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: g0lden3agle on December 10, 2019, 07:04:50 PM
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?

Nothing. 

What does It have to do with Cheeks' God given right to be wrong on the internet?  Everything.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 10, 2019, 07:43:46 PM
It’s too early to put a ton of stock into it, as the data points are sparse.  No recanting, no need to. 

God Bless America

So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: News: Garcia dreams MU on December 10, 2019, 07:55:37 PM
So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)
+100
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 08:43:42 PM
So you put stock into NOTHING, or is there some secret great source? AP certainly isn’t it.

Are you saying you don’t know much of anything until January at least, but kp might be as good as anything? That’s fine. (Just not “too soon”)

No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 


They are not without value now, nor did I say that.  But they are MORE valuable to me later in the season. 

On day one of the season, I think all these ratings have big holes.  That changes a bunch over a number of weeks.  You reach a point by February that the data doesn’t move much for most of the teams. 

Again, I don’t see what your point is.  Some value today...but somewhat limited because too soon...buyer beware...take with grain of salt.  Let it marinate, more data means better output and better informed in my opinion.  Nothing has changed on this from my perspective.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 08:46:48 PM
What does America have to do with Pomery or basketball data?

I often say it instead of cussing...it’s an old trick to avoid the swear jar that an old boss put into place years ago.  It is also something I hope happens....should we inventory all the things on Scoop that have nothing to do with the topic at hand?  Be a very long process.
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Jay Bee on December 10, 2019, 08:47:59 PM
No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 

They are not without value now, nor did I say that.

You literally said, “it’s too early” for kp. But glad you’re changing that now.

PS - you are going to call all these ratings “holistically solid”?? Good grief
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on December 10, 2019, 10:45:00 PM
No, I put less stock into something not fully baked like Pomeroy, Sagarin, etc, etc, as more data makes the ratings stronger and more holistically solid. 


They are not without value now, nor did I say that.  But they are MORE valuable to me later in the season. 

On day one of the season, I think all these ratings have big holes.  That changes a bunch over a number of weeks.  You reach a point by February that the data doesn’t move much for most of the teams. 

Again, I don’t see what your point is.  Some value today...but somewhat limited because too soon...buyer beware...take with grain of salt.  Let it marinate, more data means better output and better informed in my opinion.  Nothing has changed on this from my perspective.

What did Jerry Palm say at lunch?
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Benny B on December 10, 2019, 10:59:12 PM
What did Jerry Palm say at lunch?

“More gravy.”
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 11:30:53 PM
You literally said, “it’s too early” for kp. But glad you’re changing that now.

PS - you are going to call all these ratings “holistically solid”?? Good grief

Yes, too early to put as much stock in them now vs later.  Do you judge how a player is going to be after only a few games?  Will teams change their positions in KP and others more Nov to Jan, or Jan to Mar?

No, I don’t think they make ALL these ratings are solid.  The ones I use, without listing them all (which is why I said etc)...yes.  I tend to look at about 5 to 10 of them....there are more than 40 last time I looked, probably many more....I have no idea if ALL of them are holistically solid. 
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: Cheeks on December 10, 2019, 11:33:06 PM
Earlier it was simply "too early for Pomeroy". Period. Now it's too early "to put a TON of stock into Pomeroy". The two are not the same. Fact.

With your intelligence and the ability to tie other comments I have made in context I was thinking it wouldn’t be that difficult. But alas....
Title: Re: Pomeroy
Post by: TAMU Garcia on December 11, 2019, 12:54:08 AM
Back down to 25 after big wins by Texas Tech and Penn State leapfrogged them over us.