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Author Topic: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20  (Read 280181 times)

cheebs09

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #150 on: December 05, 2019, 10:49:52 AM »
It sounds like the Brewers have a highly thought of catching coach. The hope seems to be they can coach him up on the defensive side. Seems like a split with Pina would do well to replace the offense that was lost with Grandal.

wadesworld

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #151 on: December 05, 2019, 10:55:41 AM »

I gotta disagree. He is 27 years old and has has one good season at the plate. He was never even a decent hitter before 2018. In fact, he was a bad hitter.

His OPS was only slightly worse 2 years ago with the White Sox.  He, like just about every hitter in baseball, saw an uptick in his power last year.
Rocket Trigger Warning (wild that saying this would trigger anyone, but it's the world we live in): Black Lives Matter

jsglow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #152 on: December 05, 2019, 11:03:16 AM »
What youz guys need to remember is that his salary ONE SIXTH of Grandal's.  I love Yas and I hope he does well with the Sox.  But the Crew's plan to load the lineup with salary last year didn't work out well enough for a variety of reasons although they still made the playoffs.  And of course they couldn't go multi-year on any of that with those aging players.  Only Cain and Braun have the 'old guy' contracts now.

In Stearns I trust.

GB Warrior

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #153 on: December 05, 2019, 11:34:13 AM »
What youz guys need to remember is that his salary ONE SIXTH of Grandal's.  I love Yas and I hope he does well with the Sox.  But the Crew's plan to load the lineup with salary last year didn't work out well enough for a variety of reasons although they still made the playoffs.  And of course they couldn't go multi-year on any of that with those aging players.  Only Cain and Braun have the 'old guy' contracts now.

In Stearns I trust.

Long road ahead of us, but spending at same levels of last year still feels appropriate given Braun is off the books after this year.

jsglow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #154 on: December 05, 2019, 11:51:31 AM »
Long road ahead of us, but spending at same levels of last year still feels appropriate given Braun is off the books after this year.

Agreed. So is Stearns angling to do the Yeli lifetime deal in the next 12 months?
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 02:31:04 PM by jsglow »

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #155 on: December 05, 2019, 11:53:36 AM »
His OPS was only slightly worse 2 years ago with the White Sox.  He, like just about every hitter in baseball, saw an uptick in his power last year.

Again, I always liked Narvaez, especially as a hitter.  I certainly wouldn't say he is a bad hitter.  Always had good ABs, doesn't swing at junk, he will take is walks.  That's how he was with the Sox, and that's how he was in the minors. 

I was pretty shocked by his power last season.  As a member of the Sox, he was good hitter, but didn't hit with much authority.  Maybe he made an adjustment, I don't really know, didn't see much of the M's last year.  Maybe it was mostly the ball, maybe it was more ABs.  I'd guess in general though, the Brewers will be happy with how he hits from the C position.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #156 on: December 05, 2019, 02:41:09 PM »
What youz guys need to remember is that his salary ONE SIXTH of Grandal's.  I love Yas and I hope he does well with the Sox.  But the Crew's plan to load the lineup with salary last year didn't work out well enough for a variety of reasons although they still made the playoffs.  And of course they couldn't go multi-year on any of that with those aging players.  Only Cain and Braun have the 'old guy' contracts now.

In Stearns I trust.

I completely agree. I wasn’t knocking the move, but just pointing out that he was never a good hitter in the minors.

I would rather have them spend the money on 2 quality bullpen guys and one or two offensive guys who aren’t highly valued.

Would also love to see them sign Ryu to an incentive laden contract. Two years at $6 mil each with incentives that could raise it to $20 mil per if he starts 30 games.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #157 on: December 05, 2019, 03:12:49 PM »
I completely agree. I wasn’t knocking the move, but just pointing out that he was never a good hitter in the minors.

I would rather have them spend the money on 2 quality bullpen guys and one or two offensive guys who aren’t highly valued.

Would also love to see them sign Ryu to an incentive laden contract. Two years at $6 mil each with incentives that could raise it to $20 mil per if he starts 30 games.


I would bet Ryu would command quite a bit more than that.  He was 2nd in Cy Young voting last year and his last 2 years are downright dominant.  His track record of injuries and his age will suppress his market, but I'd be shocked if he isn't at least at 3/60 or so.

Not to mention his agent...

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #158 on: December 05, 2019, 03:23:46 PM »
I think I'd like the Sox to take that money that was earmarked for Wheeler and give some to Ryu or Keuchel, then sign Betances and Treinen. 

DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #159 on: December 05, 2019, 03:25:59 PM »
I completely agree. I wasn’t knocking the move, but just pointing out that he was never a good hitter in the minors.

I would rather have them spend the money on 2 quality bullpen guys and one or two offensive guys who aren’t highly valued.

Would also love to see them sign Ryu to an incentive laden contract. Two years at $6 mil each with incentives that could raise it to $20 mil per if he starts 30 games.

There's no way Ryu is signing that deal. He's going to get at least Hamels money without incentives tied to it. I'd be shocked if he got less than $18 mil a year.

jficke13

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #160 on: December 05, 2019, 05:08:39 PM »
Agreed. So is Stearns angling to do the Yeli lifetime deal in the next 12 months?

I bet he offers the max Milwaukee can offer, and then I bet Yeli gets more from HOU/NYY/LAD/ETC. I won't begrudge him for taking it either. He's been a helluva lot of fun to watch and I'm going to enjoy it while I can.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #161 on: December 05, 2019, 05:26:53 PM »

I would bet Ryu would command quite a bit more than that.  He was 2nd in Cy Young voting last year and his last 2 years are downright dominant.  His track record of injuries and his age will suppress his market, but I'd be shocked if he isn't at least at 3/60 or so.

Not to mention his agent...

Last year was dominant.

In the previous 4 years he pitched in only 41 games. I'll be surprised if he is even anywhere close to what you predict. Now, he may be able to earn that much, but it will be a heavily incentive-laden contract with a much smaller base salary & guarantee. $5 - $8 mil a year with heavy incentives sounds right.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #162 on: December 05, 2019, 05:32:57 PM »
There's no way Ryu is signing that deal. He's going to get at least Hamels money without incentives tied to it. I'd be shocked if he got less than $18 mil a year.

Based on skill, yes. But teams are not giving a long term contract to a guy who is on the DL every year. Hamels has 10 different years where he started more games than Ryu has started in a year ever.

We'll see who guesses right, but I think it will be a much smaller base salary than Hamels - unless he opts for a one year deal (not smart with his annual injury history).
« Last Edit: December 05, 2019, 05:41:04 PM by Jockey »

DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #163 on: December 05, 2019, 05:38:58 PM »
Based on skill, yes. But teams are giving a long term contract to a guy who is on the DL every year. Hamels has 10 different years where he started more games than Ryu has started in a year ever.

We'll see who guesses right, but I think it will be a much smaller base salary than Hamels - unless he opts for a one year deal (not smart with his annual injury history).

Trust me, if the Sox can get Ryu for $8 mil, I'd jump at that chance. I think this market for pitching is red hot, and the Hamels and Wheeler deals yesterday seem to suggest there's a premium out there.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #164 on: December 05, 2019, 05:40:45 PM »
Trust me, if the Sox can get Ryu for $8 mil, I'd jump at that chance. I think this market for pitching is red hot, and the Hamels and Wheeler deals yesterday seem to suggest there's a premium out there.

So would I for Milwaukee. But, remember, it will be $8 mil with another $10-$15 mil in incentives for games pitched.

Lennys Tap

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #165 on: December 05, 2019, 08:46:59 PM »
So would I for Milwaukee. But, remember, it will be $8 mil with another $10-$15 mil in incentives for games pitched.

Jockey,

IMO 30 starts would make Ryu worth well north of 25 million.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #166 on: December 05, 2019, 09:34:17 PM »
Jockey,

IMO 30 starts would make Ryu worth well north of 25 million.

That's where the incentives come in. He probably is worth $25 IF he starts 30 games. But, don't forget, he started exactly 30 games in his rookie year and has not done it since. He also never started over 30 games even once in the Korean Leagues. You gotta be pretty far out on the limb to think he will get healthier as he gets older.

I don't dispute what you value him as. I just don't think any team will be dumb enough to give him that kind of money without regard of how many starts he might make.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #167 on: December 05, 2019, 10:26:40 PM »
Last year was the first time Zack Wheeler ever made 30 starts.  And he has never thrown 200 innings.  He is a bit younger, and it makes sense with the years,  but Ryu's results have been better. 

DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #168 on: December 05, 2019, 10:45:45 PM »
Pham to Padres, Renfroe and top prospect Xavier Edwards to Tampa.

GB Warrior

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #169 on: December 05, 2019, 10:49:30 PM »
That's where the incentives come in. He probably is worth $25 IF he starts 30 games. But, don't forget, he started exactly 30 games in his rookie year and has not done it since. He also never started over 30 games even once in the Korean Leagues. You gotta be pretty far out on the limb to think he will get healthier as he gets older.

I don't dispute what you value him as. I just don't think any team will be dumb enough to give him that kind of money without regard of how many starts he might make.

I'm trying to think of what other significant contracts in recent MLB history were heavily incentive-laden

WI inferiority Complexes

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #170 on: December 06, 2019, 11:29:53 AM »
I'm trying to think of what other significant contracts in recent MLB history were heavily incentive-laden

I believe Kenta Maeda has a big innings pitched clause.

Lennys Tap

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #171 on: December 07, 2019, 09:30:12 PM »
White Sox rumored to be signing Marcel Ozuna on Monday. No details. Love his bat but a) he's right handed and the Sox are already more right handed than I'd like and b) his arm is awful. How does he figure in RF?

Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #172 on: December 08, 2019, 09:46:54 AM »
White Sox rumored to be signing Marcel Ozuna on Monday. No details. Love his bat but a) he's right handed and the Sox are already more right handed than I'd like and b) his arm is awful. How does he figure in RF?

Just a thought, but maybe just get an early start on Eloy's inevitable move to DH, plug Ozuna in left and go get a right fielder.

WI inferiority Complexes

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #173 on: December 08, 2019, 10:43:39 AM »
Just a thought, but maybe just get an early start on Eloy's inevitable move to DH, plug Ozuna in left and go get a right fielder.
I'd assume they'll play Ozuna in RF.

Unless they're planning on signing Castellanos, Ozuna, and Grandal.  At that point, I'd worry about Jerry's health.

Lennys Tap

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #174 on: December 08, 2019, 10:59:45 AM »
Just a thought, but maybe just get an early start on Eloy's inevitable move to DH, plug Ozuna in left and go get a right fielder.

Frankly, I would love it if they went out and got a relatively cheap left handed bat to play RF. Corey Dickerson would fit the bill. with Eloy at DH and Robert in CF the outfield defense would be pretty good.

 

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