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Author Topic: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20  (Read 18897 times)

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2019, 08:01:30 PM »
I think they need one second-tier guy, and then perhaps bring back Ivan Nova to push Lopez for the 5th spot. I say that expecting Kopech to come back healthy and Cease to improve upon last year, both of which seem reasonable. So that means Gio-Keuchel-Kopech-Cease as the top four with Looez, Nova and eventually Rodon rounding things out.

I think Rodon maybe best suited for the bullpen.  His stuff is unquestionable, but he just can't throw the innings.  Maybe being a reliever would work better for him.  I certainly wouldn't count on him in the rotation at all.
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MUDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2019, 08:14:33 PM »
I'm happy to see some positive Sox talk on here, I know Sox fans are the minority here and in Chicago, so I for one enjoy talking about some good Sox news for once. I talked to Sox people a lot in September, and the name I kept hearing was Castellanos, and that they made some inquiries with the Tigers in July about him.

I don't think Calhoun sucks or anything, he certainly benefited last year like everyone else from the ball being juiced. I think at 32, he has the least amount of upside. He's just meh to me.

The guy I'm still enamored with is Adolfo. I stood next to him/Robert/Jimenez last year at SoxFest, and Adolfo is a giant, the guy is a monster physically. He's had terrible injury history, but if he can stay healthy, I think he can mash.

Buck is right though, the Sox farm system is heavy at the top, without much in the middle. Guys like Beard and Dahlquist might be those middle guys by the end of next season. I'd obviously would love Betts, but it might make more sense for them to use whatever assets they have to go after Jon Gray in the trade market.

A trade with the Red Sox I could see happening...Eovaldi, Benintendi, Cash to Chicago for Reynaldo Lopez/minor league pitcher back to Boston. White Sox love Benintendi, and they'd figure out an outfield mix.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2019, 09:02:38 PM »
I'm happy to see some positive Sox talk on here, I know Sox fans are the minority here and in Chicago, so I for one enjoy talking about some good Sox news for once. I talked to Sox people a lot in September, and the name I kept hearing was Castellanos, and that they made some inquiries with the Tigers in July about him.

I don't think Calhoun sucks or anything, he certainly benefited last year like everyone else from the ball being juiced. I think at 32, he has the least amount of upside. He's just meh to me.

The guy I'm still enamored with is Adolfo. I stood next to him/Robert/Jimenez last year at SoxFest, and Adolfo is a giant, the guy is a monster physically. He's had terrible injury history, but if he can stay healthy, I think he can mash.

Buck is right though, the Sox farm system is heavy at the top, without much in the middle. Guys like Beard and Dahlquist might be those middle guys by the end of next season. I'd obviously would love Betts, but it might make more sense for them to use whatever assets they have to go after Jon Gray in the trade market.

A trade with the Red Sox I could see happening...Eovaldi, Benintendi, Cash to Chicago for Reynaldo Lopez/minor league pitcher back to Boston. White Sox love Benintendi, and they'd figure out an outfield mix.

I think this is why someone like Calhoun makes a lot of sense.  The Sox still have quite a few intriguing options for OFers in the system, even if they have lost their luster a little bit.  Adolfo leads the way, but Rutherford, Walker, Gonzalez and Basabe could all fill RF in the not too distant future.  Signing a guy that isn't a great fit (Castellanos/Ozuna) that could clog the position for a few years isn't ideal to me.  I'd think Calhoun would be available on a 1 year deal.
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #28 on: November 21, 2019, 09:21:00 PM »
I think Rodon maybe best suited for the bullpen.  His stuff is unquestionable, but he just can't throw the innings.  Maybe being a reliever would work better for him.  I certainly wouldn't count on him in the rotation at all.

I know I'm likely being overly optimistic with Rodon, but I do think they give him another chance as a starter.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #29 on: November 21, 2019, 10:05:09 PM »
I think they need one second-tier guy, and then perhaps bring back Ivan Nova to push Lopez for the 5th spot. I say that expecting Kopech to come back healthy and Cease to improve upon last year, both of which seem reasonable. So that means Gio-Keuchel-Kopech-Cease as the top four with Looez, Nova and eventually Rodon rounding things out.

I see the same dangers as I saw last winter with the Brewers who were gonna have Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes in the rotation. They got one out of three.

Counting on all three of Gio, Kopech, and Cease is a dangerous proposition. Gio is probably as good a candidate for regression as anybody, and while I think Kopech and Cease will eventually be solid mid-rotation guys or better, counting on them next year could be a problem. That was why I suggested two of the second tier guys - Wheeler & Keuchel or possibly even Ryu on an incentive heavy contract. They can afford it.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #30 on: November 21, 2019, 10:07:54 PM »

A trade with the Red Sox I could see happening...Eovaldi, Benintendi, Cash to Chicago for Reynaldo Lopez/minor league pitcher back to Boston. White Sox love Benintendi, and they'd figure out an outfield mix.


I think you are way overrating Lopez.

MUDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #31 on: November 21, 2019, 10:47:23 PM »

I think you are way overrating Lopez.

The price to get Benintendi isn’t Lopez, it’s taking on Eovaldi’s contract. Boston is going to have to dump a good player with either Eovaldi or Price.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #32 on: November 21, 2019, 11:01:07 PM »
The price to get Benintendi isn’t Lopez, it’s taking on Eovaldi’s contract. Boston is going to have to dump a good player with either Eovaldi or Price.

Eovaldi became a complete albatross in 3 months.
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #33 on: November 21, 2019, 11:08:26 PM »
I see the same dangers as I saw last winter with the Brewers who were gonna have Woodruff, Peralta, and Burnes in the rotation. They got one out of three.

Counting on all three of Gio, Kopech, and Cease is a dangerous proposition. Gio is probably as good a candidate for regression as anybody, and while I think Kopech and Cease will eventually be solid mid-rotation guys or better, counting on them next year could be a problem. That was why I suggested two of the second tier guys - Wheeler & Keuchel or possibly even Ryu on an incentive heavy contract. They can afford it.

I'm not sure what you mean by "counting on" in regards to Kopech and Cease, but barring injury or disaster, both will be in the rotation next year.  As much as they say they're ready to compete in 2020, the team is not going  to stall either of those guys' development by sending them back to AAA.
As for Gio, I'm not worried about significant regression from him. He changed so much about his game from 2018 to 2019, that I don't think regression analysis really applies. A similar performance to 2019 would not be terribly surprising.

jsglow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #34 on: November 22, 2019, 10:16:12 AM »
Two whole pages of Sox discussions!  Way to go boys.  I sincerely hope they have a damn solid year.

Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #35 on: November 22, 2019, 10:59:40 AM »
Staying on topic... White Sox sign Jose Abreu for 3 years/$50 million.
Under normal circumstances I wouldn't be a big fan of that third year, but in Jose's case it's just reward.

MUDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #36 on: November 22, 2019, 11:08:00 AM »
Staying on topic... White Sox sign Jose Abreu for 3 years/$50 million.
Under normal circumstances I wouldn't be a big fan of that third year, but in Jose's case it's just reward.

This extension makes zero sense. Why not at most give him 2 years? Andrew Vaughn isn’t playing anywhere but first. I like Abreu, but hate this deal.
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MUBurrow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #37 on: November 22, 2019, 11:28:36 AM »
Staying on topic... White Sox sign Jose Abreu for 3 years/$50 million.
Under normal circumstances I wouldn't be a big fan of that third year, but in Jose's case it's just reward.

Totally - Reinsdorf envisions the third year being Abreu's Ryan Zimmerman victory lap while the Sox play for the pennant.

buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #38 on: November 22, 2019, 11:29:38 AM »
This extension makes zero sense. Why not at most give him 2 years? Andrew Vaughn isn’t playing anywhere but first. I like Abreu, but hate this deal.

None of that is wrong, and with that said, this is very predictable. 

Someone commented in the other thread (probably one of the locked ones???) about loyalty in sports in regards to a Pujols post, Jerry Reisndorf is the loyalty in sports. 
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #39 on: November 22, 2019, 12:36:27 PM »
This extension makes zero sense. Why not at most give him 2 years? Andrew Vaughn isn’t playing anywhere but first. I like Abreu, but hate this deal.

It's fine.
It's a huge leap of faith to assume Andrew Vaughn is the starting first baseman for what ought to be a contending team in 2021, given that he has yet to take a swing above A ball. A Madrigal/Robert-like ascension through the system is hardly assured.
And when Vaughn is ready - and he ought to be by 2022, for sure - Abreu is your DH.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #40 on: November 22, 2019, 12:54:43 PM »
This extension makes zero sense. Why not at most give him 2 years? Andrew Vaughn isn’t playing anywhere but first. I like Abreu, but hate this deal.

Especially in the context of signing Grandal who will log time at 1B and DH.

MUDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #41 on: November 22, 2019, 12:55:56 PM »
It's fine.
It's a huge leap of faith to assume Andrew Vaughn is the starting first baseman for what ought to be a contending team in 2021, given that he has yet to take a swing above A ball. A Madrigal/Robert-like ascension through the system is hardly assured.
And when Vaughn is ready - and he ought to be by 2022, for sure - Abreu is your DH.

Who are the Sox bidding against to pay Abreu in his mid 30’s, $18 mil in 2022? If they wanted to go two years, club option, I can semi see that. But this is foolish money to throw around for what will be a declining 1B/DH. There’s zero chance in the open market Abreu is getting that future cash.
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buckchuckler

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #42 on: November 22, 2019, 01:01:43 PM »
The Sox are clearly a better team with Abreu in the lineup this year.  And barring a catastrophic collapse, next year as well. 

The third year is debatable, but I fully see that as a loyalty/mentor bonus for a very well respected and productive member of the team.  This will impact Vaughn/Collins, but in 3 years.  They still haven't earned the right to be considered for playing time yet.  I'm completely fine with it.  A bit of an overpay perhaps, but 4 million is deferred as well.
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Pakuni

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #43 on: November 22, 2019, 02:23:02 PM »
Who are the Sox bidding against to pay Abreu in his mid 30’s, $18 mil in 2022? If they wanted to go two years, club option, I can semi see that. But this is foolish money to throw around for what will be a declining 1B/DH. There’s zero chance in the open market Abreu is getting that future cash.

So can we now say your issue is with 2022 and not the entire deal?
As I already said, I don't necessarily love the third year either, but I understand them wanting to reward Jose's loyalty to the franchise, willingness to play mentor through a few lean years and the fact he's been woefully underpaid throughout his tenure with the team.

MUDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #44 on: November 22, 2019, 04:32:29 PM »
So can we now say your issue is with 2022 and not the entire deal?
As I already said, I don't necessarily love the third year either, but I understand them wanting to reward Jose's loyalty to the franchise, willingness to play mentor through a few lean years and the fact he's been woefully underpaid throughout his tenure with the team.

Yeah, I guess that's fair to say.

I like Jose, he's fantastic in the community, and it'd be well deserved to see him be in a playoff game for the Sox.

My issue is for a team that has a hard internal spending limit, when 2022 comes around and they should be contending, the $18 mil in 2022 seems rough. I'd have thought if they wanted Abreu for three years, front load the contract. I don't want to be on this board in July 2022 with the Sox half game up on the Indians, and they can't go out and trade for a middle reliever because they're not going to spend any more cash, when they could have had Abreu back for $9-$11 million in 2022, instead of $18 million.
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Lennys Tap

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #45 on: November 22, 2019, 05:16:07 PM »
So can we now say your issue is with 2022 and not the entire deal?
As I already said, I don't necessarily love the third year either, but I understand them wanting to reward Jose's loyalty to the franchise, willingness to play mentor through a few lean years and the fact he's been woefully underpaid throughout his tenure with the team.

I'm totally OK with an overpay to Jose but I don't want to hear "We can't afford X or Y because we paid Jose".

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #46 on: November 22, 2019, 05:53:31 PM »
I'm totally OK with an overpay to Jose but I don't want to hear "We can't afford X or Y because we paid Jose".

Lenny, did you grow up in Chicago? Just wondering why you’re a White Sox fan.

MUEng92

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #47 on: November 22, 2019, 10:53:29 PM »
Two whole pages of Sox discussions!  Way to go boys.  I sincerely hope they have a damn solid year.
Crazy isn't it.  Who knew 45% of all White Dox fans posted on MU Scoop Superbar.  😬

dgies9156

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #48 on: November 23, 2019, 05:19:25 AM »
I have mixed emotions about Grandal. A greater catcher makes a huge difference on a pitching staff and can be the difference between a good and great team. Peoples Exhibit 1 would people like Yadi Molina down in St. Louis.

By the same token, the Sox just spent a lot of money on a 31-year-old catcher. Sabermetrics tells us 32-years of age is the break point in value between a good and mediocre value to a baseball team. And unlike the NFL, these are real contracts!

Yeah, all you who know me as a Cardinal fan will note that the Cardinals have spent a lot of money on an over-the-hill Molina. Not only do I agree but I would note the Cardinals have a very good catcher at AAA for whom Molina's contract will create problems. I suspect in the White Sox case, there's probably not much at Birmingham!

Lennys Tap

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #49 on: November 23, 2019, 10:18:05 AM »
Lenny, did you grow up in Chicago? Just wondering why you’re a White Sox fan.

I actually grew up in the northern suburbs (Palatine, then Northbrook). But my Dad (who had grown up in northwest Indiana) was a Sox fan - so Comiskey Park under the lights became my field of dreams.

Friends would ask how a kid from the northside became a Sox fan. I'd tell them that my Dad had a "situation" that precluded him from taking my brothers and me to Wrigley Field (where they played only day games) - a job.