MLB Hot Stove 2019-20

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Rolen keeps improving his percentages and is on a path to perhaps get in. He’s ninth all time in Third Base WAR. The first seven are in the HOF, and the eight, Adrian Beltre will be when eligible.

Maybe, but I don’t think so. Last year Rolen was on 35% of ballots. The largest one-year increase ever is 26% (Luis Aparicio in ‘83). I don’t see Rolen showing up on 40% more ballots than last year.

[shoothoops]

Maybe, but I don’t think so. Last year Rolen was on 35% of ballots. The largest one-year increase ever is 26% (Luis Aparicio in ‘83). I don’t see Rolen showing up on 40% more ballots than last year.

Rolen’s public vote jumped to 66.4% last year. He has been moving a positive direction to eventually have a path.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Rolen’s public vote jumped to 66.4% last year. He has been moving a positive direction to eventually have a path.

I legitimately don’t know what the public vote is, but Rolen had the highest increase (17.6%) to get to 52.9% this year. Trending in the right direction, but a long way off.

[cheebs09]

I legitimately don’t know what the public vote is, but Rolen had the hugest increase (17.6%) to get to 52.9% this year. Trending in the right direction, but a long way off.

I believe it’s those that make their ballots public.

[shoothoops]

Rolen went from 35% to 53%. The others remained flat. He keeps his steady climb going.

[MU82]

LaTroy Hawkins got 2 effen votes.

[shoothoops]

After years of back and forth talks (literally), the Cardinals have acquired Nolan Arenado and $50 million from tbe Colorado Rockies for yet to be named prospects. (Ken Rosenthal)

[CreightonWarrior]

Not a fan of seeing Arenado in the NL Central. Let’s hope he channels is 2018 divisional series hitting.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

None of the players traded were among Baseball America’s Top 10 St.Louis prospects. That’s amazing.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

Baseball Reference lists Joc Pedersen as the player most similar to Kyle Schwarber. The Cubs should google “definition of insanity.”

[dgies9156]

Not a fan of seeing Arenado in the NL Central.

Gee, I am!!!

Once again, normalcy is returned to the NL Central. The incredible shrinking Cubby Bear is a shell of his former self, as he goes on an expense diet and looks to finish only ahead of the Paltry Pirate.

The Brewer and the Red will put up a fight, but inevitably will be no match for the ferocious Redbird in 2021. Class of the division -- obviously. Class of the League -- Maybe (lookout little Dodger). World Champions -- Let's hope   

[HutchwasClutch]

None of the players traded were among Baseball America’s Top 10 St.Louis prospects. That’s amazing.

Damn Cardinals. Always seem to pull trades or prospects out of their a$$. Things just always seem to work out to their benefit.  I’d say they live a charmed existence, but have to admit they’re run by damn smart people. 

[Lennys Tap]

Gee, I am!!!

Once again, normalcy is returned to the NL Central. The incredible shrinking Cubby Bear is a shell of his former self, as he goes on an expense diet and looks to finish only ahead of the Paltry Pirate.

The Brewer and the Red will put up a fight, but inevitably will be no match for the ferocious Redbird in 2021. Class of the division -- obviously. Class of the League -- Maybe (lookout little Dodger). World Champions -- Let's hope   

Being the best in the NL Central is a little like being the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper. Of course anything can happen in a short playoff series, but to think the Cardinals are on the same plane as the Dodgers or Padres is fantasy. And if the Mets sign Bauer....

[MUBurrow]

The Arenado deal is pretty much a carbon copy of the Goldschmidt deal.  Both put up awesome numbers in hitting friendly environments (I think Goldschmidt only played one year in AZ with the humidor), Goldschmidt was 31 and Arenado is 30, the Cards extended Goldschmidt for 5 years through age 36 season after the trade and Arenado has 6 years left on his deal through age 36 season.  Both players are high floor guys who project to age pretty well, and the biggest question mark is/was how the power holds up after the trade. 

It will be interesting to see if Arenado makes adjustments that mirror Goldschmidt's. Goldschmidt has seen drops in HR/FB ratio and ground ball rate since the move, and an increased line drive rate. He's trying to drive the ball more than hit HRs, but he's having trouble keeping his hard hit percentages stable.

[dgies9156]

Being the best in the NL Central is a little like being the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper. Of course anything can happen in a short playoff series, but to think the Cardinals are on the same plane as the Dodgers or Padres is fantasy. And if the Mets sign Bauer....

Lenny, I%u2019m pretty optimistic about this one. Arnando is the piece the Cardinals lost when Marcel Ozuna signed with the Atlanta Braves. The middle of the order will be nasty with Arnando, Goldschmidt, Molina and maybe Carpenter.

The challenge they now have is whether Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader can hit for any kind of average. If they hit anywhere near .270, the Cardinals could be very hard to beat. About the only concern I have is mild concern about relief pitching.

This should be a good year for the Cardinals.

[PGsHeroes32]

Lenny, I%u2019m pretty optimistic about this one. Arnando is the piece the Cardinals lost when Marcel Ozuna signed with the Atlanta Braves. The middle of the order will be nasty with Arnando, Goldschmidt, Molina and maybe Carpenter.

The challenge they now have is whether Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader can hit for any kind of average. If they hit anywhere near .270, the Cardinals could be very hard to beat. About the only concern I have is mild concern about relief pitching.

This should be a good year for the Cardinals.

Wouldn't call either of these two nasty middle of the order hitters...Unless nasty is more of a negative.

[JWags85]

Wouldn't call either of these two nasty middle of the order hitters...Unless nasty is more of a negative.

  thank you. Nobody is fearing a 38 year old light hitting Molina who hasn’t even been a top 10 hitter at his position for awhile and hasn’t had more than 45 extra base hits in a season since the early 2010s.  And Carpenter was fearsome...4-5 years ago. He was mediocre in 2019, awful this last year, and on the wrong side of 35, I don’t imagine he suddenly starts ripping 30+ homers and spraying the ball again, unless he doesn’t quarantine with Victor Conte.

They have some really nice pieces are undoubtedly the class of the NL Central with Arenado. But tossing in Molina and Carpenter as reasons to fear that batting order is amusing

[Lennys Tap]

Lenny, I%u2019m pretty optimistic about this one. Arnando is the piece the Cardinals lost when Marcel Ozuna signed with the Atlanta Braves. The middle of the order will be nasty with Arnando, Goldschmidt, Molina and maybe Carpenter.

The challenge they now have is whether Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader can hit for any kind of average. If they hit anywhere near .270, the Cardinals could be very hard to beat. About the only concern I have is mild concern about relief pitching.
This should be a good year for the Cardinals.

Brother dgies,

Last year the Cardinals were bad offensively (23rd or 24th in runs scored). Good news was that the Pirates, Brewers and Reds were worse and the Cubs were barely better. In 2021, none of the Card’s competition will be better on offense and the Cubs and Bucs will be even worse. So a mediocre offense will probably dominate. But when Molina and Carpenter are integral to the offense it ain’t exactly “Murderer’s Row”.

[shoothoops]

Being the best in the NL Central is a little like being the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper. Of course anything can happen in a short playoff series, but to think the Cardinals are on the same plane as the Dodgers or Padres is fantasy. And if the Mets sign Bauer....

How good the Cardinals will or will not be in 2021 remains to be seen. But as you say, anything can happen in a short playoff series, so they don't have to be.

1 in 4 Wildcard teams have won the World Series since the Wildcard was first introduced.

Using your Cardinals example, they had several 100 plus win teams the past twenty years. Those teams were among the best teams in baseball. While very successful in the regular season, and having post season success, none of them, nor some of their other strong teams in that stretch, won the World Series.

The Cardinals did win the World Series with an 83 win team in 2006. They also won the World Series in 2011 with a 90 win Wildcard team.  These teams of course will get more mention than the 100 win teams, or World Series losing teams in 2013, 2004, etc...or NLCS teams.

The San Francisco Giants won 3 WS Titles with high 80's to low 90's win teams. The L.A. Dodgers won their first WS Title in 42 years with a 43 win COVID-19 shortened season team, not their 106 or 104 win teams etc...they even lost some playoff series to the Cardinals in that drought.

What the Cardinals are good at, is being competitive. They have had one losing record in the past two decades. They spend top 10. They will never spend the most or least. They try to make team enhancing trades, sign free agents, and develop players. They have had more success and emphasis developing pitchers, but they have concentrated more on field players in recent years.

This past season, the Cardinals had a four run lead twice in what would have been a series clinching playoff game v San Diego, and lost a close game. That's how close it can go. It's the first time they have ever lost in the wildcard round. It's pobably a pretty good chance they will be competitive and in the mix in 2021 as they continue to define their roster. We'll see.

[CreightonWarrior]

Man, seeing a GM trade a possibly first ballot HOF-we and a a briefcase with $50mm in it for not even anyone in the cardinal’s too 4 prospects makes me question my Jesuit high school education. It’s like they were trying to get rid of Arenado

[dgies9156]

Wouldn't call either of these two nasty middle of the order hitters...Unless nasty is more of a negative.

Carpenter has been in a late-career downturn, I’ll acknowledge. I am a bit more excited because he’s got someone hitting around him who is feared. Pitchers don’t challenge Carpenter when the guy behind him is a.220 hitter.

Molina is just a good clutch hitter. He may not start something but he sure finishes it.

[Jockey]

Man, seeing a GM trade a possibly first ballot HOF-we and a a briefcase with $50mm in it for not even anyone in the cardinal’s too 4 prospects makes me question my Jesuit high school education. It’s like they were trying to get rid of Arenado

They were. Simply a money dump - same as Darvish trade. It also probably loses Story for them after this season as well.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

The L.A. Dodgers won their first WS Title in 42 years with a 43 win COVID-19 shortened season team, not their 106 or 104 win teams etc...they even lost some playoff series to the Cardinals in that drought.

1988 was 32 years ago, and Dodgers broke that drought with a .717 regular season winning percentage, which would’ve tied the most victories in a 162 game season.

[shoothoops]

1988 was 32 years ago, and Dodgers broke that drought with a .717 regular season winning percentage, which would’ve tied the most victories in a 162 game season.

Not sure how that changes the point. If your point is it takes a.717 win percentage to win the World Series, obviously that's not the case.  The Dodgers have had eleven 90 win or more teams in that decades long span that didn't win the World Series, including a few 100 plus win teams.

Only 14 times in the past 51 years has the team with the best record won the World Series. (I included the shortened season Dodgers of 2020).

Go back to the original point. Teams don't have to have the best records to win the World Series. It's nice, and it can and does happen 22% of the time. Wilcard teams winning the World Series have a higher winning percentage than the the overall best record team.

In order to have a decent chance to win the World Series, you have to be good enough to get into the playoffs. One doesn't have to spend the most money or have the best record. The playoffs are a different entity altogether.

[wadesworld]

Not sure how that changes the point. If your point is it takes a.717 win percentage to win the World Series, obviously that's not the case.  The Dodgers have had eleven 90 win or more teams in that decades long span that didn't win the World Series, including a few 100 plus win teams.

Only 14 times in the past 51 years has the team with the best record won the World Series. (I included the shortened season Dodgers of 2020).

Go back to the original point. Teams don't have to have the best records to win the World Series. It's nice, and it can and does happen 22% of the time. Wilcard teams winning the World Series have a higher winning percentage than the the overall best record team.

In order to have a decent chance to win the World Series, you have to be good enough to get into the playoffs. One doesn't have to spend the most money or have the best record. The playoffs are a different entity altogether.

I’d argue you need to be good enough to make the Playoffs to have ANY chance of winning the World Series.