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Author Topic: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20  (Read 147935 times)

BLM

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1900 on: October 28, 2020, 10:28:48 AM »
"Betts would have represented the start of Snell’s third trip through the order. Including the playoffs, Snell faced the same hitter a third time in a game only 34 times this season. Against lefties — there were 10 of those — he allowed a .700 OPS. Betts isn’t a lefty, though. Against righties for a third time, Snell allowed a 1.072 OPS.

That sample is small, to be sure. So let’s look at Snell overall for his career. Third time through against lefties: .472 OPS. Against righties: .800. It also should be noted that Betts isn’t just any righty. He is Mookie Betts, whom some consider to be the best player in baseball right now."

https://ftw.usatoday.com/2020/10/dodgers-rays-kevin-cash-blake-snell-world-series-analytics

Enjoy, dolt.

Lol.  "He's Mookie Betts."

Right.  The guy who crushes righties and struggles against lefties.  That Mookie Betts.
Black Lives Matter

MUBurrow

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1901 on: October 28, 2020, 10:32:08 AM »
This is the baseball debate content that I crave. 

Isn't it a fair shot down the middle to say "Cash pulled Snell because the organizational line in the sand that was drawn, based on its analytics, was to not allow their pitchers to face a lineup a third time.  But that was a tunnel vision decision that did not take into account the numbers for the opposing batters.  Had Cash priced in Mookie's reverse splits, he would have come to the conclusion that Snell's "third time through" risk of facing Betts again was less than the risk of bringing in the right handed Anderson to face him.  He was so focused on the analytics as applied to his own pitchers that he neglected to apply the same analysis to the opposing batter."

BLM

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1902 on: October 28, 2020, 10:36:17 AM »
Not exactly. Like I showed. For Betts personally hes worse against lefties so those stats say leave Snell in. But for Snell personally the analystics show hes horrendous the 3rd time through typically especially vs Righties. For example....Betts and Seager got to him in game 2 with a walk and single the 3rd time through.

But the issue everyone(except Mr. "Doesnt watch baseball but knows Analystics" himself) has with the move is it went STRICTLY off Snells past and didn't take 1 game and the eye test into account.

What are you even talking about with "Doesn't watch baseball?"  Lol.

Also, you don't have to watch baseball at all to understand analytics.
Black Lives Matter

shoothoops

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1903 on: October 28, 2020, 10:39:22 AM »
This is the baseball debate content that I crave. 

Isn't it a fair shot down the middle to say "Cash pulled Snell because the organizational line in the sand that was drawn, based on its analytics, was to not allow their pitchers to face a lineup a third time.  But that was a tunnel vision decision that did not take into account the numbers for the opposing batters.  Had Cash priced in Mookie's reverse splits, he would have come to the conclusion that Snell's "third time through" risk of facing Betts again was less than the risk of bringing in the right handed Anderson to face him.  He was so focused on the analytics as applied to his own pitchers that he neglected to apply the same analysis to the opposing batter."

Did the data tell him to bring in a pitcher that had given up runs in 6 straight games and that set a record for 7? He's a good manager. It was a tough decision. It didn't work out. It definitely seemed to be a situational feel of a 1-0 game, Snell thriving. But 3rd time through the order. Also, Mookie Betts slugged righties much better than lefties this year.


Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1904 on: October 28, 2020, 11:07:18 AM »
This is the baseball debate content that I crave. 

Isn't it a fair shot down the middle to say "Cash pulled Snell because the organizational line in the sand that was drawn, based on its analytics, was to not allow their pitchers to face a lineup a third time.  But that was a tunnel vision decision that did not take into account the numbers for the opposing batters.  Had Cash priced in Mookie's reverse splits, he would have come to the conclusion that Snell's "third time through" risk of facing Betts again was less than the risk of bringing in the right handed Anderson to face him.  He was so focused on the analytics as applied to his own pitchers that he neglected to apply the same analysis to the opposing batter."

Great post, Burrow. Especially the “organizational line in the sand” part. This decision was basically made by the “organization” before the game. It is exactly what they have done with Snell every time he has pitched. This group decision is the way the Rays operate.

While I understand that, I also think there is a need to have a manager who can make decisions. He is in the dugout. He sees up close how effective Snell is pitching. If the front office is going to dictate moves, then just have a group of coaches and forego having a manager. Cash is an excellent people person, but as a tactical manager, I don’t see anything special. Most of his decisions are made in conjunction with management in an office before the game.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1905 on: October 28, 2020, 11:09:22 AM »
Lol.  "He's Mookie Betts."

Right.  The guy who crushes righties and struggles against lefties.  That Mookie Betts.

Correct.

And Cash pulled Snell the guy who gets crushed the 3rd time through the order and even more so by righties. That Blake Snell.

Cash himself said and I quote "I did not want him facing Betts or Seager a 3rd time". He went with the analystics. 

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/10/are-analytics-to-blame-for-rays-kevin-cash-pulling-blake-snell-too-early-from-game-6-of-2020-world-series.html

"According to Baseball Reference, Snell made into the sixth inning four times this season. His ERA in the sixth inning: 13.50.

Six times this season Snell had to face an opposing lineup for the third time in a single game. Teams hit .304 with a .609 OBP and .913 OPS on their third look at Snell."

The rays have an analytical philosophy that they blindly followed all year long. The issue is they leave no room for the eye test or feeling out a game on a game by game basis.

You are still the only person in America too stupid to grasp this.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1906 on: October 28, 2020, 11:10:22 AM »
Incidentally, the next 3 batters Snell would have faced were 0-6 with 6 Ks. Sometimes a baseball decision needs to trump an analytics decision.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1907 on: October 28, 2020, 11:10:40 AM »
What are you even talking about with "Doesn't watch baseball?"  Lol.

Also, you don't have to watch baseball at all to understand analytics.

As you are proving, apparently you do.
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

BLM

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1908 on: October 28, 2020, 11:50:58 AM »
The analytics show Snell sucks after the 3rd and that Betts crushes righties. The Rays went the opposite way of the analytics and left Snell in well past the 3rd and brought in a lefty to face Betts.
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Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1909 on: October 28, 2020, 11:51:27 AM »
Loved "Rudy Gobert" going back on the field and celebrating with his Dodger teammates after being told he tested positive for Covid.

Very trumpian of him.

JWags85

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1910 on: October 28, 2020, 03:14:59 PM »
Loved "Rudy Gobert" going back on the field and celebrating with his Dodger teammates after being told he tested positive for Covid.

Very trumpian of him.


Devils advocate...the entire team knows about the test, and thats why he was pulled and out there with a mask initially.  Roberts as much as anyone.  Team officials say "if Turner comes back out maskless, you all have to quarantine for 14 days" and the team and Roberts go "we just won the WS, thats fine, bring him out here"

I'm no fan of Justin Turner, but people painting it as some renegade decision that is aggrieving his teammates (and even stupider I saw people on Twitter complaining about fans being endangered) are jumping to conclusions.  I'm not going to comment on MLB's handling of things, just what I saw from the team-centric postgame activities.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1911 on: October 28, 2020, 05:06:16 PM »

I'm no fan of Justin Turner, but people painting it as some renegade decision that is aggrieving his teammates (and even stupider I saw people on Twitter complaining about fans being endangered) are jumping to conclusions.  I'm not going to comment on MLB's handling of things, just what I saw from the team-centric postgame activities.


Major League Baseball said in a statement Wednesday that it is "beginning a full investigation" into Justin Turner's postgame actions on Tuesday night.

Turner was pulled from the Dodgers' World Series clincher after seven innings once the team was alerted that he had tested positive for COVID-19, but the veteran third baseman decided to take part in portions of the on-field celebration anyway, at one point removing his mask for a team photo. Turner "chose to disregard the agreed-upon joint protocols and the instructions he was given regarding the safety and protection of others," reads the statement. "While a desire to celebrate is understandable, Turner’s decision to leave isolation and enter the field was wrong and put everyone he came in contact with at risk. When MLB Security raised the matter of being on the field with Turner, he emphatically refused to comply. The Commissioner's Office is beginning a full investigation into this matter and will consult with the Players Association within the parameters of the joint 2020 Operations Manual." It's possible Turner could be facing some sort of fine or suspension.

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1912 on: October 28, 2020, 05:24:43 PM »
Rotoworld:
According to Bruce Levine of Chicago's 670 The Score, Tony La Russa "has talked to close associates about possible coaching and baseball support system positions if he is named the White Sox manager."

This latest report from Levine serves as a good indication that La Russa is a serious candidate for the job, and quite possibly the current favorite. There's also talk that the White Sox are considering former Diamondbacks and Astros manager A.J. Hinch, whose one-year suspension from baseball officially ended with the conclusion of the 2020 World Series on Tuesday night. White Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf will likely have the final say in the end, and he has a close relationship with La Russa that dates back to the late 1970s.

MU82

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1913 on: October 28, 2020, 05:33:08 PM »
If Cash leaves Snell in and Snell gets his brains bashed in, he opens himself to tremendous second-guessing. The Rays considered their bullpen the strength of their team, and today's starting pitchers are geared toward going only 5-6 innings. You leave Snell in and you lose, and everybody from fans all the way up to his bosses would complain he was trying to "reinvent the wheel."

You pull Snell and turn the ball over to the relievers, and they blow it, yes, you have fans and folks like us second-guessing you. But Cash can say to his bosses, "This is the team we have built -- the team you put together for me to manage -- and this is the strategy we have used to win all season, including the playoffs."

I admittedly don't do deep dives into analytics, and I was saying, "Leave Snell in there." But I understand that pulling Snell gives Cash "plausible deniability."
"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. These two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death."

-- George Carlin

Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1914 on: October 28, 2020, 06:23:19 PM »
If Cash leaves Snell in and Snell gets his brains bashed in, he opens himself to tremendous second-guessing. The Rays considered their bullpen the strength of their team, and today's starting pitchers are geared toward going only 5-6 innings. You leave Snell in and you lose, and everybody from fans all the way up to his bosses would complain he was trying to "reinvent the wheel."

You pull Snell and turn the ball over to the relievers, and they blow it, yes, you have fans and folks like us second-guessing you. But Cash can say to his bosses, "This is the team we have built -- the team you put together for me to manage -- and this is the strategy we have used to win all season, including the playoffs."

I admittedly don't do deep dives into analytics, and I was saying, "Leave Snell in there." But I understand that pulling Snell gives Cash "plausible deniability."

Except the bullpen was dog tired from over usage during a year when the playoff schedule was shortened with fewer days off.

I agree, in principle, with what you are saying, but a good manager will adjust for circumstances.

Retire0

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1915 on: October 29, 2020, 06:24:17 AM »
Can’t believe it’s LaRussa.
New TallTitan bold prediction: Sacar Anim will play in more NBA games than Markus Howard.

TallTitan's bold prediction of Davante Gardner being drafted in 2014.

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=27259.msg310060;topicseen#new

#UnleashDiener

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1916 on: October 29, 2020, 08:52:47 AM »
If Cash leaves Snell in and Snell gets his brains bashed in, he opens himself to tremendous second-guessing. The Rays considered their bullpen the strength of their team, and today's starting pitchers are geared toward going only 5-6 innings. You leave Snell in and you lose, and everybody from fans all the way up to his bosses would complain he was trying to "reinvent the wheel."

You pull Snell and turn the ball over to the relievers, and they blow it, yes, you have fans and folks like us second-guessing you. But Cash can say to his bosses, "This is the team we have built -- the team you put together for me to manage -- and this is the strategy we have used to win all season, including the playoffs."

I admittedly don't do deep dives into analytics, and I was saying, "Leave Snell in there." But I understand that pulling Snell gives Cash "plausible deniability."

This is true, had snell remained in and he gave up the runs scoop would have crucified Cash as the next Dusty Baker.

MU82

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1917 on: October 29, 2020, 10:24:38 AM »
I feel happy for Kershaw. He pitched well in the World Series -- actually quite well in 4 of 5 postseason starts -- and finally won a title.

It never seems right to me when great players who also seem like good guys are labeled as "chokers" or "losers." Glad Kershaw's labels now are "champion" and "future Hall of Famer." (Obviously, he was Hall-bound either way, but it's better to go in as a champ.)
"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. These two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death."

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DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1918 on: October 29, 2020, 11:44:48 AM »
I don’t think Rick Hahn is going to be the GM much longer.
“Always In Before The Lock”
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Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1919 on: October 29, 2020, 11:50:39 AM »
I don’t think Rick Hahn is going to be the GM much longer.

Tweets from FA Marcus Stroman indicate he would never sign with the Sox if LaRussa is the manager.

My guess is that Bauer would be out too. Bauer doesn't exactly follow the unwritten rules or play the Cardinal way.

DegenerateDish

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1920 on: October 29, 2020, 11:54:48 AM »
Tweets from FA Marcus Stroman indicate he would never sign with the Sox if LaRussa is the manager.

My guess is that Bauer would be out too. Bauer doesn't exactly follow the unwritten rules or play the Cardinal way.

I’m very torn right now. After MU, there isn’t a team I love more than the Sox. If LaRussa is hired, I don’t know how I can root for them. It would be such an epically poor decision on so many levels.

Not feeling good at all. Hopefully common sense prevails here.
“Always In Before The Lock”
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ChitownSpaceForRent

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1921 on: October 29, 2020, 12:08:51 PM »
I don’t think Rick Hahn is going to be the GM much longer.

Yea, get that same vibe if LaRussa is hired. No way in hell thats Hahn’s guy.

WI inferiority Complexes

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1922 on: October 29, 2020, 12:12:29 PM »
I’m very torn right now. After MU, there isn’t a team I love more than the Sox. If LaRussa is hired, I don’t know how I can root for them. It would be such an epically poor decision on so many levels.

Not feeling good at all. Hopefully common sense prevails here.

Jerry always gets his man (eventually). Doesn’t matter if it’s Danny Tartabull in 1996, Griffey in ‘08, or LaRussa in ‘21.

I’m half expecting for the Sox to still sign Chone Figgins.

MU82

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1923 on: October 29, 2020, 12:23:32 PM »
Jerry always gets his man (eventually). Doesn’t matter if it’s Danny Tartabull in 1996, Griffey in ‘08, or LaRussa in ‘21.

I’m half expecting for the Sox to still sign Chone Figgins.

And A-Rod.
"I'm completely in favor of the separation of Church and State. These two institutions screw us up enough on their own, so both of them together is certain death."

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Jockey

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Re: MLB Hot Stove 2019-20
« Reply #1924 on: October 29, 2020, 12:34:47 PM »
I’m very torn right now. After MU, there isn’t a team I love more than the Sox. If LaRussa is hired, I don’t know how I can root for them. It would be such an epically poor decision on so many levels.

Not feeling good at all. Hopefully common sense prevails here.

I am a Brewer fan, first anf foremost.

In the AL, I root for the sox. That ends if LaRussa is hired.