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Author Topic: Duke, MSU, Marquette  (Read 4213 times)

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #50 on: November 07, 2019, 08:21:53 PM »
MU needs two offensive schemes, one for opponents who can't guard Marcus, one for opponents who can.

High usage / lower usage.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #51 on: November 07, 2019, 08:55:35 PM »
Lenny, I don't think we are all that far apart.   I don't think either Wojo or Markus are infallible.    And perhaps there are vocal minorities within the Spartan and Duke fanbases that want Cassius to share the ball more and thought Zion was overrated.   I don't spend time on their boards, so it is entirely possible this is actually a universal problem (not appreciating stars) and not just a problem of a small subset on scoop.

All fair, Tower.

Lennys Tap

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #52 on: November 07, 2019, 09:00:10 PM »
Let’s test the Scorecasting hypothesis on Markus:

Q: What’s his average usage and ORat lines in games MU wins and loses?
A: His average usage rate in wins is 29.1 and 33.3 in losses. His average ORat in wins is 119.7 versus 100.7 in losses.

Q: What’s the difference in the stats in usage games of 31 or higher versus lower usage rate games (despite wins or losses)?
A: In higher usage rate games, his average usage is 39.1 and his ORat is 108.8. MU won 52.2% of those games. In the <31 usage rate games, his average usage was 23 and his ORat was 116.0. MU won 72.5% of those games.

Q: Yes, but what does it look like by the level of competition?
A:  In Pomeroy A games, his usage is 32.1 and ORat is 111.1. MU won 42.1% of those games. In B games, his usage is 30.8 and his ORat is 107.7. MU has won 52.2% of those games. In less competitive games, his usage is 29.0 and his ORat is 117.4.  MU has won 91.7% of those games.

Q: What do the numbers look like after “The Letter” game versus Nova?
A: His usage was 41.1 and his ORat was 94.6. MU won 14% of those games.

Q: What are the differences in the average number of assists and turnovers by types of games?
A: Assists are the same by higher and lower usage games (3.1). Turnovers are almost double in higher usage games (3.9 vs. 2.0) as might be expected. Post “The Letter”, assists were up to 3.7 and turnovers were 4.7.

Q: What’s the optimal usage point where his ORat peaks, on average?
A: About 31, again on average, as, with a great player like Markus, he has a lot of outlier games like Loyola and Buffalo. These are special.

I gave my interpretation earlier in the thread. The rest of you, have at it. He is an AA with incredible talent and heart. That also attracts defenses who are sending three defenders to spy on him. “The Howard Rules”.

+1000

lawdog77

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #53 on: November 08, 2019, 07:18:20 AM »
Serious question. Does that staff track advanced stats during the game?

Marcus92

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #54 on: November 08, 2019, 07:38:54 AM »
Don't know for certain. But stats are described as one of the responsibilities for the director of basketball operations.
"Let's get a green drink!" Famous last words

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #55 on: November 08, 2019, 09:12:26 AM »
MU needs two offensive schemes, one for opponents who can't guard Marcus, one for opponents who can.

High usage / lower usage.

You basically just summed up in one sentence what I have been trying to articulate for like 2 years. Well done and you're absolutely right.

Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #56 on: November 08, 2019, 10:14:14 AM »
LOL. "Condemns" is a bit of an exaggeration itself. Irony lost on the one claiming irony lost on some. That's some really sweet irony.

IMO, Tower post wasn't an exaggeration but a misstatement of facts in evidence. My statement on Markus's infallibility was obvious hyperbole, a small joke to make a point. Sorry it went over your head.

But thanks for your 2 cents - really added to the conversation.

Bwaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha!


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mu_hilltopper

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #57 on: November 08, 2019, 10:38:09 AM »
You basically just summed up in one sentence what I have been trying to articulate for like 2 years. Well done and you're absolutely right.

With the right amount of Arby's in your system you can write goodly like me.

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #58 on: November 08, 2019, 11:48:15 AM »
With the right amount of Arby's in your system you can write goodly like me.

If only the Hausers consulted with you.

Henry Sugar

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #59 on: November 08, 2019, 12:26:54 PM »
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2019, 12:31:17 PM by Henry Sugar »
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Shooter McGavin

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #60 on: November 08, 2019, 02:39:34 PM »
Nice post.  Thanks.

rocket surgeon

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #61 on: November 08, 2019, 05:59:06 PM »
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.

who's that masked man?  that's one smokin post right there.  now i've got to read it again to see what's in it :D but 1st impression was winner winner...
i'll take ape tit for $200 alex

Lennys Tap

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #62 on: November 09, 2019, 08:26:25 AM »

Two cents to a conversation is exactly two more than you ever provide.

Ooooooh. Fresh from your "I know you are but what am I?" collection of clever comebacks.

Loved your "logic" in the Memphis/Penny Hardaway thread.

Bwaaaaahahahaha!!!

Carl

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #63 on: November 09, 2019, 09:36:03 AM »
Fantastic post Henry.  Very well articulated.  Hope Wojo reads it to the team

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #64 on: November 09, 2019, 10:15:05 AM »
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.

I think it's way too early to get worried about this. The main thing I look at is that Markus was clearly going for the record. He wanted it at the end of the first half and came out right away in the second and got it. I don't have the game in front of me, but I do have the play-by-play.

Howard broke the record at the 19:07 mark of the second half. Howard's final logged event on the ESPN play-by-play was at 9:26 and the next dead ball after that was at 8:10. It's close enough to accurate to assume that Markus checked out at that point. If it's off, it's only by a possession or two. Here are the possessions in that stretch:

18:28 Anim made layup, assisted by Bailey
17:36 McEwen missed jumper
17:21 Anim turnover
16:30 Cain missed three
15:51 Anim missed jumper
15:03 Cain missed dunk
14:36 Anim turnover
14:02 Elliott made three, assisted by Howard
13:22 McEwen made three, assisted by Bailey
12:44 Bailey missed three
12:16 Howard made two FTs
11:57 Anim made dunk, assisted by Howard
11:18 John made dunk, assisted by Bailey
10:57 Howard made layup, plus one FT
10:16 John made dunk, assisted by McEwen
9:26 Torrence turnover
8:45 Anim made layup, assisted by Torrence
8:13 McEwen Turnover

In that stretch, Howard had 2 of 18 possessions used, assuming he played the entire time. He had as many assists as he did possessions used. He had one additional shot he took that did not end a possession (the Torrence turnover) but in that stretch, he only took two shots from the field. We had 17 shots taken during that period of time. Again, just 2 by Howard.

I think he was pressing to get the record, but after he did, he took his foot off the gas. Even if he was only on the court for half of those possessions, that's only a 22% usage rate and about the same percentage of shots taken.

One other quibble...you cite four possibilities with high usage. I feel like blowout wins and upset victories are both positive outcomes. Both improve your advanced metrics more than the expected result would.

Either way, the sample size is far too small to really evaluate fairly at this point. What we do know is that once Howard got the record, in the subsequent 18 possessions, Howard's usage rate was equal or lower than Anim, McEwen, Cain, and John.

To address the specific examples, I would offer the following:

Howard didn't need to take half the shots, but he only employed that strategy until the record was broken. After that, his assist rate appears to have been as high as his usage rate.

Against better opponents, it's too early to say. I would agree it was a problem down the stretch last year.

In the tournament and the other examples, I think they all have to be determined circumstantially. But we need to see what McEwen, Anim, Bailey, and the rest will provide on a regular basis. We also need to see if the high usage will continue. Again, just too early to say.

To the summary, the end run last year was mishandled. Wojo has acknowledged as much. Howard was not himself after the Butler game. He probably should've been held out or restrained. But we were going for a league title, and frankly, the Hausers didn't show any real consistency in that stretch either.

I think Howard having a usage around 30-32% is probably ideal, fluctuating up when he's on and down when he's off. It's certainly a discussion worth having, but I think we'll have better perspective on it after Orlando.

milwaukee ex-pat

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #65 on: November 09, 2019, 10:27:56 AM »
For me its not the number of shots Markus takes - its whether we run our offense or not.  Any time Markus dribbles ball up - holds it the entire time until he gets some room and shoots - its a bad possession IMHO - regardless of whether he makes shot or not.  I was a big fan of Buzz's philosophy of getting at least one paint touch every possession.  I would be happy if Markus takes 75% of shots as long as he does it within offense.  With the talent on the team he should get plenty of GOOD shots by running our offense.  Running our offense allows us to have a much stronger identity on offense rather than Markus going one vs D - even if he is making alot of shots.  JM2C..

PGsHeroes32

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #66 on: November 09, 2019, 12:26:01 PM »

In the second half last night Wojo had an opportunity to try other options to develop a Plan B after Markus broke the record. Instead Wojo ran up the score and it appeared the Team development was secondary. We already know Markus can score 38, 40 or 50 or more. What we do not know is who is going to score when the shots simply are not dropping for him.

You stupid or trolling??

We literally had 3 walk ons in for the last like 4 minutes.

Markus didnt play at all in the final 9 minutes.

Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

MUEng92

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #67 on: November 09, 2019, 12:54:45 PM »
Do any of you stat geeks have the number of possessions that Markus shot the ball without passing in the first game?  I can remember 1, maybe 2 that he had an open shot in transition before trailers got up the court.  I'm getting old but I don't remember others.

NCMUFan

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #68 on: November 10, 2019, 08:01:43 AM »
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?

Excellent blinders you have on.  It appeared last year, with the ball in Markus's hands, a shot was going up whether good, bad or ugly.  Markus is no Ja Morant with the ball in his hands.  If the shot has a good probability of going in with the ball in Markus's hands, then by all means get it to him.  Let's see how the season plays out.

Uncle Rico

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #69 on: November 10, 2019, 08:16:27 AM »
Excellent blinders you have on.  It appeared last year, with the ball in Markus's hands, a shot was going up whether good, bad or ugly.  Markus is no Ja Morant with the ball in his hands.  If the shot has a good probability of going in with the ball in Markus's hands, then by all means get it to him.  Let's see how the season plays out.

He had an assist rate of 27.2 last year.  Yes, I know he had a high usage rate but let’s pump the brakes on the notion the ball doesn’t move with him on the court.
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #70 on: November 13, 2019, 11:52:05 PM »
For the record, Markus was at a 25 usage rate tonight versus Purdue.

MU82

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #71 on: November 13, 2019, 11:54:09 PM »
For the record, Markus was at a 25 usage rate tonight versus Purdue.

Yep. He and Koby had almost the same number.
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Dr. Blackheart

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Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
« Reply #72 on: November 13, 2019, 11:55:42 PM »
Yep. He and Koby had almost the same number.

And not too far off Cain, Greg and Sacar.