MUScoop

MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: tower912 on November 06, 2019, 05:28:53 PM

Title: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: tower912 on November 06, 2019, 05:28:53 PM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Johnny B on November 06, 2019, 05:38:23 PM
Nobody on here is saying he shouldn't have the ball in his hands alot.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: brewcity77 on November 06, 2019, 05:41:28 PM
I think it's a small portion of Scoop that wants this. I do think there are some analytics that support a lower usage, but when Markus is on, he is like no other player in the sport right now. He is a special player and aside from a vocal minority, I believe most of us are appreciating what he is capable of and enjoying the moment.

Much of this likely stems from Wojo and those that never wanted him at the program in the first place. If Markus fails, Wojo fails, and maybe then the anti-Wojo crowd gets their dream of seeing him leave, whether by choice or force. I suspect there is a reasonable correlation between the two.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Uncle Rico on November 06, 2019, 05:41:39 PM
Nobody on here is saying he shouldn't have the ball in his hands alot.

That’s exactly what some are saying
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: fjm on November 06, 2019, 05:42:38 PM
I am definitely not saying take the ball out of MarKus hands. Dudes a stud. And is amazing. And an amazing human!

Having said that, my concern is, where will the scoring come from when Markus goes 2-10 from 3, and 5-19 total against seton hall in February.

He will have cold nights. And that’s OK! We just need people to step up. And I didn’t see anything too encouraging during last night. (But it was only 1 game).
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: real chili 83 on November 06, 2019, 05:43:49 PM
That’s exactly what some are saying

Let’s keep it in perspective. It is “some”.  That’s all.

Someone doesn’t win an argument because they scream the loudest.

Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: tower912 on November 06, 2019, 05:44:38 PM
Nobody on here is saying he shouldn't have the ball in his hands alot.
ROFL.

Or I would if it weren't so sad.    Brew, you are probably right.   It is a small, vocal minority.   
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Uncle Rico on November 06, 2019, 05:52:39 PM
Let’s keep it in perspective. It is “some”.  That’s all.

Someone doesn’t win an argument because they scream the loudest.

Agree, it is a small, loud minority.  Each win will cause a “sure they won, but” and each loss a “I told you”.

Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: muwarrior69 on November 06, 2019, 06:07:21 PM
Our go to guy, yes; but not our only scoring option. Teams will double even triple team him while the rest of the team struggles to score.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: MuMark on November 06, 2019, 06:16:44 PM
I am definitely not saying take the ball out of MarKus hands. Dudes a stud. And is amazing. And an amazing human!

Having said that, my concern is, where will the scoring come from when Markus goes 2-10 from 3, and 5-19 total against seton hall in February.

He will have cold nights. And that’s OK! We just need people to step up. And I didn’t see anything too encouraging during last night. (But it was only 1 game).

When your best player has a horrible night and you are playing against good teams you are probably going to lose.......unless your defense can hold down the other team and you can win a rock fight.

Stars have to shine to win big games (usually).......we don't have Nova talent with Brunson, Bridges, Spellman, Donte etc.......or Kentucky or Duke.....etc.....

Markus needs help but if plays horribly we are probably going to lose against quality opponents.......this shouldn't be news.



Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Herman Cain on November 06, 2019, 06:26:23 PM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?
I am in the camp that wants the ball in Markus hands as much as possible. My theory going into the season, is we would have better chemistry ,  and because of our athleticism ,Markus would get more and cleaner looks . I much prefer Markus shooting the ball than any one else on this team. Hope he has a season for the ages.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: brewcity77 on November 06, 2019, 06:33:28 PM
Our go to guy, yes; but not our only scoring option. Teams will double even triple team him while the rest of the team struggles to score.

If people want to double or triple Markus and leave Koby, Elliott, or Anim wide open on the perimeter, more power to them. We have proven shot-makers. They may not have the dynamism of Markus, but if opponents double or triple off them, they are going to make hay.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Cheeks on November 06, 2019, 06:35:59 PM
Nobody on here is saying he shouldn't have the ball in his hands alot.

Some say cancerous
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Johnny B on November 06, 2019, 07:01:49 PM
Ok by nobody I mean a tiny fraction that should be irrelevant. :)
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Silent Verbal on November 06, 2019, 07:13:48 PM
If people want to double or triple Markus and leave Koby, Elliott, or Anim wide open on the perimeter, more power to them. We have proven shot-makers. They may not have the dynamism of Markus, but if opponents double or triple off them, they are going to make hay.

I don’t know if I’d call them “proven” shot-makers.  If the guys you mentioned along with Cain and Bailey can all hit 30% or better from beyond the arc this season while not having the Hausers or Rowsey around to distract defenses, I’d call them proven.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: MuMark on November 06, 2019, 07:24:14 PM
I'm not worried about Elliott or Koby shooting better then 30% from 3...... that's a low bar.....no matter who is on the court with them.

Sacar shot 23% as a Sophmore......and 39% as a junior......he probably won't take a ton of them which is fine.

Bailey and Cain are the 2 unknowns .......Cain hit at a high level as frosh so we know he has it in him.

The bigger question is how many attempts guys other then Markus take...... .it will be interesting to find out.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 06, 2019, 08:06:49 PM
Based on the book Scorecasting, a superstar usage rate around 30 is ideal to win...but the team also needed two NBA All-Stars to go with it. On the college level, that would be a Big East HM or higher or future NBA players. 2003, MU had Wade, Diener and Novak. 1977 had Butch, Bo, Whitehead with a little Toone. The formula worked for Jordan whose teams started winning when his usage dropped from 38%. Wade’s usage was about 34% in his F4 year, maybe because Travis and Steve were young yet.

Nevertheless, when usage is high for one player, you get the “Jordan Rules”, the “Wade Rules” by Kansas, and the “Howard Rules” the second time around the Big East last year. It isn’t about taking the ball out your AA’s hands, it’s about creating space in your offense so he and others have room to operate.

Last season, MU had three All BE players. The Hausers either hung on the perimeter or crab dribbled slowly into the paint (predictably) for a slow-developing post up. And Markus was the primary ball handler  (or only as Joe was a dud). The bigs were brought out on the perimeter to wedge for space the three perimeter players but were no threat in the paint. Sacar could occasionally find some dribble drive space in certain match-ups, but he was mostly playing as 2 guard out of position. Opposing teams figured out how clog the offense up. The Hausers transferred to a different system (Swing and PG led B1G style slog). In many ways, MU tried to trey shoot it’s way out of trouble. The transition game was non-existent other than three on the run.

Yesterday’s issue was not Markus’ usage but, other than him, Jamal and Ed, the ridiculously high (>20% plus) turnover rates by the rest of the team. Hard to get higher personal usage when you are turning it over that much. This team’s depth and skill set is more balanced. But, the team needs to step up and not rely on your superstar to always have to bail you out.

And that’s the rub. Easy to blame the superstar who is trying to win, but it is on the coach and team to step up and find the balance. Having Jayce as a threat in the paint offensively really changes things I believe space wise in the offense. Not having him leads to a rerun.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Uncle Rico on November 06, 2019, 08:09:54 PM
Based on the book Scorecasting, a superstar usage rate around 30 is ideal to win...but the team also needed two NBA All-Stars to go with it. On the college level, that would be a Big East HM or higher or future NBA players. 2003, MU had Wade, Diener and Novak. 1977 had Butch, Bo, Whitehead with a little Toone. The formula worked for Jordan whose teams started winning when his usage dropped from 38%. Wade’s usage was about 34% in his F4 year, maybe because Travis and Steve were young yet.

Nevertheless, when usage is high for one player, you get the “Jordan Rules”, the “Wade Rules” by Kansas, and the “Howard Rules” the second type around the Big East last year. It isn’t about taking the ball out your AA’s hands, it’s about creating space in your offense so he and others have room to operate.

Last season, MU had three All BE players. The Hausers either hung on the perimeter or crab dribbled slowly into the paint (predictably) for a slow-developing post up. And Markus was the primary ball handler  (or only as Joe was a dud). The bigs were brought out on the perimeter to wedge for space the three perimeter players but were no threat in the paint. Sacar could occasionally find some dribble drive space in certain match-ups, but he was mostly playing as 2 guard out of position. Opposing teams figured out how clog the offense up. The Hausers transferred to a different system (Swing and PG led B1G style slog). In many ways, MU tried to trey shoot it’s way out of trouble. The transition game was non-existent other than three on the run.

Yesterday’s issue was not Markus’ usage but, other than him, Jamal and Ed, the ridiculously high (>20% plus) turnover rates by the rest of the team. Hard to get higher personal usage when you are turning it over that much. This team’s depth and skill set is more balanced. But, the team needs to step up and not rely on your superstar to always have to bail you out.

And that’s the rub. Easy to blame the superstar who is trying to win, but it is on the coach and team to step up and find the balance. Having Jayce as a threat in the paint offensively really changes things I believe space wise in the offense. Not having him leads to a rerun.

Nicely done.  A good post to bookmark as the season moves forward
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Marcus92 on November 06, 2019, 08:32:16 PM
Great post, Doctor.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: MU82 on November 06, 2019, 09:41:07 PM
Super interesting, Doc.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Class71 on November 06, 2019, 10:23:10 PM
Have we not beat this subject to death yet?

I think as the season goes by it will become clear why we can not rely only on Markus's great shooting ability. Given his height there are taller, fast defenders who will shut him down. If the pros did not feel that way he would already be in the NBA.

At times, when we play a top tier team with a top defender and Markus keeps chucking and missing we need other options. Also there will be times when, like all humans, he will have a bad day. It will be these times when we need a confident second and third scoring option.

I do not blame Markus or Wojo for him taking a lot of shots when he is on. We all can see the obvious talent. Who I do blame is Wojo for not having a Plan B when Markus is not hitting. In the second half last night Wojo had an opportunity to try other options to develop a Plan B after Markus broke the record. Instead Wojo ran up the score and it appeared the Team development was secondary. We already know Markus can score 38, 40 or 50 or more. What we do not know is who is going to score when the shots simply are not dropping for him.

Do we have a team who can win at times when Markus is unable to deliver? What if Markus gets hurt, what if he is sick, what if he stubs his toe, or a thousand other issues what is our plan then? The answer is simple, we don't have one. Wojo has hung the teams success and failure on one player. Wojo is not developing a Team. He is developing a brand called Markus Howard.

Last, I find Wojo's comments that, he hopes Marquette fans appreciate Markus, misleading. Most Marquette fans do very much appreciate his shooting ability. Being the best scorer of all time is very, very special to any reasonable fan. He is appreciated.

What Wojo is missing is some fans are frustrated with Wojo. That is, his strategy last year and so far this year is appears to over rely on Markus.

Wake up Wojo, the objective is to win more games and it takes more than a national player of the year to do that. Markus needs a strong supporting cast that is battle proven. The Team ex-Markus needs to develop confidence that they can carry the load too. I expect they can but playing Markus, the one-man-show routine, does not develop anything. In fact, it makes the Team more reliant on Markus's scoring and could causes doubts about their own skills. How about we give this team a chance to prove themselves without Markus against cupcakes? How about developing a team, not just a player.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: copious1218 on November 06, 2019, 10:41:15 PM
In the second half last night Wojo had an opportunity to try other options to develop a Plan B after Markus broke the record. Instead Wojo ran up the score and it appeared the Team development was secondary.

Say what now?  You and i were watching different games
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Jay Bee on November 06, 2019, 10:47:19 PM
Some very dumb comments in a couple of posts above. Demonstrating ignorance of stats and b-ball

Curse u!!
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Benny B on November 06, 2019, 11:34:07 PM
As I mentioned to my wife at the FiFo last night (as a record was set, mind you) the primary problem last year was with one person on the team who didn’t like the Markus Howard show... fortunately, that one person is no longer on the team.

Go team 19-20.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 07, 2019, 05:54:47 AM
In the second half last night Wojo had an opportunity to try other options to develop a Plan B after Markus broke the record. Instead Wojo ran up the score and it appeared the Team development was secondary.

What game were you watching? Markus only played 7 minutes in the second half and only scored 8/44 points in the second half.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: CTWarrior on November 07, 2019, 07:17:33 AM
What game were you watching? Markus only played 7 minutes in the second half and only scored 8/44 points in the second half.
I really disliked the way we looked in the first half against Loyola.  It really felt like at halftime Wojo talked about ball movement and we tried to involve everybody more in the second half.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: TAMU, Knower of Ball on November 07, 2019, 07:24:33 AM
I really disliked the way we looked in the first half against Loyola.  It really felt like at halftime Wojo talked about ball movement and we tried to involve everybody more in the second half.

So you disliked a game plan that got a 44-15 point lead?
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: dgies9156 on November 07, 2019, 07:26:13 AM
OK, I plead guilty to being one of the people who are concerned about the excessive scoring concentration from Markus. Look, I love the guy and what he means to Marquette. But, if we put all our marbles in the Markus bag, we're going to look like we did when Henry Ellenson was here.

To address earlier commentors' concerns, I want Markus scoring but I'd like to see balance. OK, if the defense gives him 40 points a night, take it. But when we get to the Big 10 portion of our schedule -- Wisconsin and Purdue -- I'm truly hoping Sacar, Koby, Greg, Brendan and even Theo step up as significant contributors. That's the only way we will win.

When Coach McGuire led us, our seniors were our stars and our scoring was balanced.  We had strong scoring from our guards and forwards. At times, even our centers. We have to have that to win consistently.

Hero ball is inconsistent with a Top 10 team!

MAKE MARQUETTE FEARED AGAIN!!!!!
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: CTWarrior on November 07, 2019, 09:19:39 AM
So you disliked a game plan that got a 44-15 point lead?
I did not like that only Markus did anything on the offensive end against a team we would have bludgeoned if he took the night off.  Killing Loyola means nothing to me.  What I liked in the first half was our defense. 

I suspect Markus took twice as many shots as he threw passes of any kind in the first half.  He tried to get a shot off every time he touched the ball and only passed if he was stymied.  I understand how good he is and was in the first half, but I just hate that kind of basketball.  I love watching ball movement.  I get it if people don't agree, especially with a guy with talent like Markus.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Tha Hound on November 07, 2019, 09:53:30 AM
OK, I plead guilty to being one of the people who are concerned about the excessive scoring concentration from Markus. Look, I love the guy and what he means to Marquette. But, if we put all our marbles in the Markus bag, we're going to look like we did when Henry Ellenson was here.

To address earlier commentors' concerns, I want Markus scoring but I'd like to see balance. OK, if the defense gives him 40 points a night, take it. But when we get to the Big 10 portion of our schedule -- Wisconsin and Purdue -- I'm truly hoping Sacar, Koby, Greg, Brendan and even Theo step up as significant contributors. That's the only way we will win.

When Coach McGuire led us, our seniors were our stars and our scoring was balanced.  We had strong scoring from our guards and forwards. At times, even our centers. We have to have that to win consistently.

Hero ball is inconsistent with a Top 10 team!

MAKE MARQUETTE FEARED AGAIN!!!!!


Hard disagree RE: looking like Ellenson's team. The defense and supporting cast is MUCH stronger than that team. Henry had to be the guy every game because everyone else, on O and D, were so much worse. That's just not the case with this team.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: bilsu on November 07, 2019, 10:15:10 AM
I want Markus to take every good open shot he has. I do not want Markus to force up bad shots. I can say that about every player on our team.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Coleman on November 07, 2019, 10:30:52 AM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?

Markus is the best MU player since Wade, and should always be option 1A and 1B. Same with last year. People were pissed because he was turning himself into (or Wojo was turning him into, we'll never really know) option 2 and 3 as well when there were other guys with a lot of talent who should contribute, especially when Markus was having an off night.

I like Markus a lot and there is not another guy in college basketball that I'd rather have in my corner for one shot with a game on the line. But some of the criticism of him was/is legitimate.

If he feeling it and shooting 7/10 from 3PT I have no problem with him putting up 40 or 50 points. Run the hot hand all night. He is your best weapon, use it. It is the off nights where he is cold and everything continued to run entirely through him that was frustrating.  If you recall the Wade years, we made the Final Four because of contributions from Diener, Novak, Jackson and Merritt. Wade was far and away the best player but we had many, many options including 2 other NBA players besides Wade.

There's always shades of grey. Markus is not a villain but he is not above any criticism.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: BM1090 on November 07, 2019, 12:09:01 PM
What game were you watching? Markus only played 7 minutes in the second half and only scored 8/44 points in the second half.

Right. I think Markus took 3 or 4 total shots in the 2nd half.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Its DJOver on November 07, 2019, 12:14:42 PM
Scoring 34 points on 24 shots (both more than 3x anyone else on the team) and your fans are praising you.  What a weird concept.  Don't they know that they can't be a top 10 team with a high volume scorer?

https://northcarolina.forums.rivals.com/threads/the-cole-anthony-show.72925/
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: dgies9156 on November 07, 2019, 12:37:50 PM
Hard disagree RE: looking like Ellenson's team. The defense and supporting cast is MUCH stronger than that team. Henry had to be the guy every game because everyone else, on O and D, were so much worse. That's just not the case with this team.

Prove it.

Distribute the ball. Get distributed scoring.

On defense I agree.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: wadesworld on November 07, 2019, 12:39:39 PM
Senior Markus is a much better college player than freshman Henry was.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Skatastrophy on November 07, 2019, 12:54:21 PM
I want Markus to take every good open shot he has. I do not want Markus to force up bad shots. I can say that about every player on our team.

+1
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: skianth16 on November 07, 2019, 01:03:28 PM
This whole thread is really pretty simple - when teams are winning, people love their star players and coaches and heap praise on them. But when teams are losing, the most visible members of the team (the stars and the coaches) take more flak than others.

So when comparing Duke and MSU to last year's MU team, of course there are more people on the MU side expressing frustration with the star player and how the coach is using him. When fans, myself included, see a strategy continue to fail, they want to see something different. That's all it is.

It doesn't mean they don't appreciate Markus or that they think he's a bad player (or person). It's just frustration. There's nothing more to read more into it than just fans being passionate but disappointed.

Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: injuryBug on November 07, 2019, 03:20:44 PM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?

I started the who else can score thread not to get the ball out of his hands but more as a question as to when Howard goes cold or is taken out of the game by the other team who else will step up on this team and make the plays to win games.  I am all for 20 shots per night by Howard that gives MU a great chance to win each night. 
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 04:52:37 PM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?

This post is a gross misrepresentation of opinions expressed on Scoop  A significant portion want "the ball out of his hands as much as plausible"? Who, and what does that even mean? They think he's a "cancer"? One person's opinion, IIRC. Should have "adapted his game to the departed"? Said nobody.

Markus is an elite scorer who can literally carry a team when he's hitting on all cylinders. But, contrary to your view, he's not infallible. So some fans think our team would have been better off if Markus had a usage % of 26.8 (Cassius Winston and Zion Williamson last year) or 30.9 (Myles Powell last year) instead of his off the charts 37.4%. That doesn't make them haters.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on November 07, 2019, 05:02:58 PM
This post is a gross misrepresentation of opinions expressed on Scoop  A significant portion want "the ball out of his hands as much as plausible"? Who, and what does that even mean? They think he's a "cancer"? One person's opinion, IIRC. Should have "adapted his game to the departed"? Said nobody.

Markus is an elite scorer who can literally carry a team when he's hitting on all cylinders. But, contrary to your view, he's not infallible. So some fans think our team would have been better off if Markus had a usage % of 26.8 (Cassius Winston and Zion Williamson last year) or 30.9 (Myles Powell last year) instead of his off the charts 37.4%. That doesn't make them haters.

Lol. Condemns post for exaggerating. Also exaggerates by claiming author said Markus was “infallible.”

Irony is just lost on some.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: tower912 on November 07, 2019, 05:04:32 PM
Irony not lost.   But pleased by the discussion
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 05:29:11 PM
Lol. Condemns post for exaggerating. Also exaggerates by claiming author said Markus was “infallible.”

Irony is just lost on some.

LOL. "Condemns" is a bit of an exaggeration itself. Irony lost on the one claiming irony lost on some. That's some really sweet irony.

IMO, Tower post wasn't an exaggeration but a misstatement of facts in evidence. My statement on Markus's infallibility was obvious hyperbole, a small joke to make a point. Sorry it went over your head.

But thanks for your 2 cents - really added to the conversation.

Bwaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha!
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Its DJOver on November 07, 2019, 05:54:56 PM
I don't recall anyone ever saying that Markus is "infallible".  In the Loyola game thread though I did see: "This is abysmal", "Terrible shooting", "We are absolutely going to suck this year", and "were Dayton bound", all by different posters.  This was a game where we never trailed, and our lead was never less than 20 after the first 10 minutes, and people were still complaining.  Believe it or not, most teams don't play their best basketball in their opener.  The number of TOs even considering the sample size is concerning, but when someone scores 38 points in 26 minutes, and we shoot above 60% from three as a team, I can certainly understand the frustration of some posters that others are already complaining.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 06:52:52 PM
I don't recall anyone ever saying that Markus is "infallible".  In the Loyola game thread though I did see: "This is abysmal", "Terrible shooting", "We are absolutely going to suck this year", and "were Dayton bound", all by different posters.  This was a game where we never trailed, and our lead was never less than 20 after the first 10 minutes, and people were still complaining.  Believe it or not, most teams don't play their best basketball in their opener.  The number of TOs even considering the sample size is concerning, but when someone scores 38 points in 26 minutes, and we shoot above 60% from three as a team, I can certainly understand the frustration of some posters that others are already complaining.

In game threads are generally (even when we play really well) filled with frustrated rants. I avoid them - maybe you should too.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Its DJOver on November 07, 2019, 06:57:50 PM
In game threads are generally (even when we play really well) filled with frustrated rants. I avoid them - maybe you should too.

I'm usually too invested in the game to keep up with them, but I go back afterwards and give them a read.

Just providing evidence to support the idea that no amount of success will cause the complaining to stop. 
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: real chili 83 on November 07, 2019, 07:04:23 PM
Markus in the Loyola game was intentional. Period.

BTW, Jayce working super hard to be ready for Purdue game.  Hope it happens for him.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 07:06:54 PM
I'm usually too invested in the game to keep up with them, but I go back afterwards and give them a read.

Just providing evidence to support the idea that no amount of success will cause the complaining to stop.

OK, but I think there's a big difference between in game frustrations and more dispassionate, after the fact honest conversation about our team's strengths and weaknesses.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: tower912 on November 07, 2019, 07:19:12 PM
OK, but I think there's a big difference between in game frustrations and more dispassionate, after the fact honest conversation about our team's strengths and weaknesses.

Lenny, I don't think we are all that far apart.   I don't think either Wojo or Markus are infallible.    And perhaps there are vocal minorities within the Spartan and Duke fanbases that want Cassius to share the ball more and thought Zion was overrated.   I don't spend time on their boards, so it is entirely possible this is actually a universal problem (not appreciating stars) and not just a problem of a small subset on scoop.   

Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 07, 2019, 08:21:11 PM
Let’s test the Scorecasting hypothesis on Markus:

Q: What’s his average usage and ORat lines in games MU wins and loses?
A: His average usage rate in wins is 29.1 and 33.3 in losses. His average ORat in wins is 119.7 versus 100.7 in losses.

Q: What’s the difference in the stats in usage games of 31 or higher versus lower usage rate games (despite wins or losses)?
A: In higher usage rate games, his average usage is 39.1 and his ORat is 108.8. MU won 52.2% of those games. In the <31 usage rate games, his average usage was 23 and his ORat was 116.0. MU won 72.5% of those games.

Q: Yes, but what does it look like by the level of competition?
A:  In Pomeroy A games, his usage is 32.1 and ORat is 111.1. MU won 42.1% of those games. In B games, his usage is 30.8 and his ORat is 107.7. MU has won 52.2% of those games. In less competitive games, his usage is 29.0 and his ORat is 117.4.  MU has won 91.7% of those games.

Q: What do the numbers look like after “The Letter” game versus Nova?
A: His usage was 41.1 and his ORat was 94.6. MU won 14% of those games.

Q: What are the differences in the average number of assists and turnovers by types of games?
A: Assists are the same by higher and lower usage games (3.1). Turnovers are almost double in higher usage games (3.9 vs. 2.0) as might be expected. Post “The Letter”, assists were up to 3.7 and turnovers were 4.7.

Q: What’s the optimal usage point where his ORat peaks, on average?
A: About 31, again on average, as, with a great player like Markus, he has a lot of outlier games like Loyola and Buffalo. These are special.

I gave my interpretation earlier in the thread. The rest of you, have at it. He is an AA with incredible talent and heart. That also attracts defenses who are sending three defenders to spy on him. “The Howard Rules”.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: mu_hilltopper on November 07, 2019, 08:21:53 PM
MU needs two offensive schemes, one for opponents who can't guard Marcus, one for opponents who can.

High usage / lower usage.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 08:55:35 PM
Lenny, I don't think we are all that far apart.   I don't think either Wojo or Markus are infallible.    And perhaps there are vocal minorities within the Spartan and Duke fanbases that want Cassius to share the ball more and thought Zion was overrated.   I don't spend time on their boards, so it is entirely possible this is actually a universal problem (not appreciating stars) and not just a problem of a small subset on scoop.

All fair, Tower.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 07, 2019, 09:00:10 PM
Let’s test the Scorecasting hypothesis on Markus:

Q: What’s his average usage and ORat lines in games MU wins and loses?
A: His average usage rate in wins is 29.1 and 33.3 in losses. His average ORat in wins is 119.7 versus 100.7 in losses.

Q: What’s the difference in the stats in usage games of 31 or higher versus lower usage rate games (despite wins or losses)?
A: In higher usage rate games, his average usage is 39.1 and his ORat is 108.8. MU won 52.2% of those games. In the <31 usage rate games, his average usage was 23 and his ORat was 116.0. MU won 72.5% of those games.

Q: Yes, but what does it look like by the level of competition?
A:  In Pomeroy A games, his usage is 32.1 and ORat is 111.1. MU won 42.1% of those games. In B games, his usage is 30.8 and his ORat is 107.7. MU has won 52.2% of those games. In less competitive games, his usage is 29.0 and his ORat is 117.4.  MU has won 91.7% of those games.

Q: What do the numbers look like after “The Letter” game versus Nova?
A: His usage was 41.1 and his ORat was 94.6. MU won 14% of those games.

Q: What are the differences in the average number of assists and turnovers by types of games?
A: Assists are the same by higher and lower usage games (3.1). Turnovers are almost double in higher usage games (3.9 vs. 2.0) as might be expected. Post “The Letter”, assists were up to 3.7 and turnovers were 4.7.

Q: What’s the optimal usage point where his ORat peaks, on average?
A: About 31, again on average, as, with a great player like Markus, he has a lot of outlier games like Loyola and Buffalo. These are special.

I gave my interpretation earlier in the thread. The rest of you, have at it. He is an AA with incredible talent and heart. That also attracts defenses who are sending three defenders to spy on him. “The Howard Rules”.

+1000
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: lawdog77 on November 08, 2019, 07:18:20 AM
Serious question. Does that staff track advanced stats during the game?
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Marcus92 on November 08, 2019, 07:38:54 AM
Don't know for certain. But stats are described as one of the responsibilities for the director of basketball operations.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Coleman on November 08, 2019, 09:12:26 AM
MU needs two offensive schemes, one for opponents who can't guard Marcus, one for opponents who can.

High usage / lower usage.

You basically just summed up in one sentence what I have been trying to articulate for like 2 years. Well done and you're absolutely right.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: The Sultan of Semantics on November 08, 2019, 10:14:14 AM
LOL. "Condemns" is a bit of an exaggeration itself. Irony lost on the one claiming irony lost on some. That's some really sweet irony.

IMO, Tower post wasn't an exaggeration but a misstatement of facts in evidence. My statement on Markus's infallibility was obvious hyperbole, a small joke to make a point. Sorry it went over your head.

But thanks for your 2 cents - really added to the conversation.

Bwaaaaaaaaaahahahahahahahaha!


Two cents to a conversation is exactly two more than you ever provide. 
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: mu_hilltopper on November 08, 2019, 10:38:09 AM
You basically just summed up in one sentence what I have been trying to articulate for like 2 years. Well done and you're absolutely right.

With the right amount of Arby's in your system you can write goodly like me.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 08, 2019, 11:48:15 AM
With the right amount of Arby's in your system you can write goodly like me.

If only the Hausers consulted with you.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Henry Sugar on November 08, 2019, 12:26:54 PM
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Shooter McGavin on November 08, 2019, 02:39:34 PM
Nice post.  Thanks.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: rocket surgeon on November 08, 2019, 05:59:06 PM
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.

who's that masked man?  that's one smokin post right there.  now i've got to read it again to see what's in it :D but 1st impression was winner winner...
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Lennys Tap on November 09, 2019, 08:26:25 AM

Two cents to a conversation is exactly two more than you ever provide.

Ooooooh. Fresh from your "I know you are but what am I?" collection of clever comebacks.

Loved your "logic" in the Memphis/Penny Hardaway thread.

Bwaaaaahahahaha!!!
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Carl on November 09, 2019, 09:36:03 AM
Fantastic post Henry.  Very well articulated.  Hope Wojo reads it to the team
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: brewcity77 on November 09, 2019, 10:15:05 AM
Hi there. Member of the small but vocal minority regarding Howard's usage here and on twitter.

1. Overloading usage is a higher risk strategy. 
2. The higher risk results happen because a higher percentage of possessions increases the variability of results according to that player. If Howard has 40% of the possessions on 18/25, that's different than 40% of the possessions on 7/25.
3. Higher risk strategies can lead to larger margins of victories, both positive and negative. This means more blowout wins, upset victories, upset losses, and blowout losses. Only 1/4 of these outcomes is desirable. Higher risk strategies increase undesirable outcomes.
4. There are diminishing returns as usage increases. In other words, efficiency decreases with more shots.
5. Good / elite teams want to minimize the variability of results. If you are good, then you want to consistently be good.
6. In general, teams that overload usage are not good or elite teams. There are exceptions.
7. Overloading usage (or other high risk strategies) can be effective for situations that require higher variability. If you are already losing, an underdog, and/or the circumstance is must-win, then a risky strategy can be the best approach.
8. Overloading usage is a bad strategy when the team is winning big, already favored to win, or over a sustained period of time.

Let's look at some specific examples

Does Markus need to take half the shots to defeat Loyola Maryland? Logic indicates a bad strategy and an unnecessary risk. I will accept that the scoring record was obtainable and broken, so no big deal.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots vs Purdue and UW-Madison? In game decision. Both those games are coin flips. Minimize the variance and try not to overload. If Howard is hot, it's crunch time, or MU starts to lose, then fire away.

Should Markus take a higher percentage of shots in the tournament? Depends. Is MU favored or not? Winning big or not? Crunch time?

Summary
High Usage is risky, but it isn't binary. It's good to take calculated risks, but if you take risks at the wrong times then you're doing it wrong.

I think it's way too early to get worried about this. The main thing I look at is that Markus was clearly going for the record. He wanted it at the end of the first half and came out right away in the second and got it. I don't have the game in front of me, but I do have the play-by-play.

Howard broke the record at the 19:07 mark of the second half. Howard's final logged event on the ESPN play-by-play was at 9:26 and the next dead ball after that was at 8:10. It's close enough to accurate to assume that Markus checked out at that point. If it's off, it's only by a possession or two. Here are the possessions in that stretch:

18:28 Anim made layup, assisted by Bailey
17:36 McEwen missed jumper
17:21 Anim turnover
16:30 Cain missed three
15:51 Anim missed jumper
15:03 Cain missed dunk
14:36 Anim turnover
14:02 Elliott made three, assisted by Howard
13:22 McEwen made three, assisted by Bailey
12:44 Bailey missed three
12:16 Howard made two FTs
11:57 Anim made dunk, assisted by Howard
11:18 John made dunk, assisted by Bailey
10:57 Howard made layup, plus one FT
10:16 John made dunk, assisted by McEwen
9:26 Torrence turnover
8:45 Anim made layup, assisted by Torrence
8:13 McEwen Turnover

In that stretch, Howard had 2 of 18 possessions used, assuming he played the entire time. He had as many assists as he did possessions used. He had one additional shot he took that did not end a possession (the Torrence turnover) but in that stretch, he only took two shots from the field. We had 17 shots taken during that period of time. Again, just 2 by Howard.

I think he was pressing to get the record, but after he did, he took his foot off the gas. Even if he was only on the court for half of those possessions, that's only a 22% usage rate and about the same percentage of shots taken.

One other quibble...you cite four possibilities with high usage. I feel like blowout wins and upset victories are both positive outcomes. Both improve your advanced metrics more than the expected result would.

Either way, the sample size is far too small to really evaluate fairly at this point. What we do know is that once Howard got the record, in the subsequent 18 possessions, Howard's usage rate was equal or lower than Anim, McEwen, Cain, and John.

To address the specific examples, I would offer the following:

Howard didn't need to take half the shots, but he only employed that strategy until the record was broken. After that, his assist rate appears to have been as high as his usage rate.

Against better opponents, it's too early to say. I would agree it was a problem down the stretch last year.

In the tournament and the other examples, I think they all have to be determined circumstantially. But we need to see what McEwen, Anim, Bailey, and the rest will provide on a regular basis. We also need to see if the high usage will continue. Again, just too early to say.

To the summary, the end run last year was mishandled. Wojo has acknowledged as much. Howard was not himself after the Butler game. He probably should've been held out or restrained. But we were going for a league title, and frankly, the Hausers didn't show any real consistency in that stretch either.

I think Howard having a usage around 30-32% is probably ideal, fluctuating up when he's on and down when he's off. It's certainly a discussion worth having, but I think we'll have better perspective on it after Orlando.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: milwaukee ex-pat on November 09, 2019, 10:27:56 AM
For me its not the number of shots Markus takes - its whether we run our offense or not.  Any time Markus dribbles ball up - holds it the entire time until he gets some room and shoots - its a bad possession IMHO - regardless of whether he makes shot or not.  I was a big fan of Buzz's philosophy of getting at least one paint touch every possession.  I would be happy if Markus takes 75% of shots as long as he does it within offense.  With the talent on the team he should get plenty of GOOD shots by running our offense.  Running our offense allows us to have a much stronger identity on offense rather than Markus going one vs D - even if he is making alot of shots.  JM2C..
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: PGsHeroes32 on November 09, 2019, 12:26:01 PM

In the second half last night Wojo had an opportunity to try other options to develop a Plan B after Markus broke the record. Instead Wojo ran up the score and it appeared the Team development was secondary. We already know Markus can score 38, 40 or 50 or more. What we do not know is who is going to score when the shots simply are not dropping for him.

You stupid or trolling??

We literally had 3 walk ons in for the last like 4 minutes.

Markus didnt play at all in the final 9 minutes.

Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: MUEng92 on November 09, 2019, 12:54:45 PM
Do any of you stat geeks have the number of possessions that Markus shot the ball without passing in the first game?  I can remember 1, maybe 2 that he had an open shot in transition before trailers got up the court.  I'm getting old but I don't remember others.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: NCMUFan on November 10, 2019, 08:01:43 AM
I had the pleasure of sitting in the nosebleed seats at the MSU Duke elite eight game last spring.
      Duke fans around me were mad at K for not working harder to get the ball to Zion.
    Spartan fans despaired when Cassius was out of the game and implored Izzo to put the ball in his hands and let him work.
   A significant portion of MU fans on this board want the ball taken out of Markus's hands as much as plausible.  A cancer.  Should have adapted his game to the departed.

Why do fans of other schools want the ball in the hands of their best players whereas MU fans disparage their all time leading scorer, model citizen, reigning BEPOY, and preseason first team all American?

Do Seton Hall fans want Powell to have the ball in his hands less?

Excellent blinders you have on.  It appeared last year, with the ball in Markus's hands, a shot was going up whether good, bad or ugly.  Markus is no Ja Morant with the ball in his hands.  If the shot has a good probability of going in with the ball in Markus's hands, then by all means get it to him.  Let's see how the season plays out.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Uncle Rico on November 10, 2019, 08:16:27 AM
Excellent blinders you have on.  It appeared last year, with the ball in Markus's hands, a shot was going up whether good, bad or ugly.  Markus is no Ja Morant with the ball in his hands.  If the shot has a good probability of going in with the ball in Markus's hands, then by all means get it to him.  Let's see how the season plays out.

He had an assist rate of 27.2 last year.  Yes, I know he had a high usage rate but let’s pump the brakes on the notion the ball doesn’t move with him on the court.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 13, 2019, 11:52:05 PM
For the record, Markus was at a 25 usage rate tonight versus Purdue.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: MU82 on November 13, 2019, 11:54:09 PM
For the record, Markus was at a 25 usage rate tonight versus Purdue.

Yep. He and Koby had almost the same number.
Title: Re: Duke, MSU, Marquette
Post by: Dr. Blackheart on November 13, 2019, 11:55:42 PM
Yep. He and Koby had almost the same number.

And not too far off Cain, Greg and Sacar.