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Author Topic: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection  (Read 7162 times)

Ellenson Family Reunion

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MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« on: October 20, 2019, 06:27:08 AM »
#2 in Big East behind Villanova, with X & SH right behind

BE 2nd strongest conference

Windyplayer

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2019, 06:55:40 AM »
Fantastic. Lot of variables going into the season as well. If most of those work in our favor, top 10 is not crazy.

brewcity77

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2019, 07:25:37 AM »
Going game by game, it has us at 20-8 (12-6) and depending on who we play in Orlando, it would certainly have another win in our second game and a toss-up in the third (Maryland is 16, one ahead of us).

Looking at our schedule, lots of toss-ups. Purdue, Wisconsin, and K-State are all game we are 48-50% to win. I'll admit, I'm surprised how much the computers like Purdue. Top-10 in both offense and defense. Feels like the Edwards effect. Every Big East team is projected in the top-100.

Also, 4 ACC teams in the top-6, yet they are the fourth strongest conference.

shoothoops

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2019, 07:52:16 AM »
NM
« Last Edit: October 20, 2019, 08:37:06 AM by shoothoops »

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2019, 07:57:40 AM »
Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

GB Warrior

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2019, 08:28:04 AM »
 How much does Michigan State drop once Hauser is cleared and playing defense
Nobody says "It's only a game" when their team is winning.

Uncle Rico

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2019, 08:32:51 AM »
Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I always lean towards KenPom but don’t dismiss T-Rank.  T-Rank has some fun features.  But I’ve definitely found KenPom to be the better overall predictor of things to come.  My hunch is given the strength/depth of the Big East this year, all the pre-season stuff will look wildly different by March
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Ellenson Family Reunion

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2019, 08:52:40 AM »
Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

Yeah if anything I'd reverse those, with defense being anywhere from #5-15 and offense being #30-50

If the offense can outperform my expectations, this could be a scary good team. Really hope Markus can stay healthy!

Dr. Blackheart

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2019, 09:18:04 AM »
Bart Tovik is a Badger lawyer who lives in Evanston and Pomeroy is a weather forecaster.  Hard to pick who is more accurate based on that 411.

brewcity77

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2019, 09:32:00 AM »
Offense #17 and Defense #34.  I think MU has a chance to be much higher on D.

Bucky at #45 which puts them 10th in the B1G at 16-14 and 9-11 = Madison Meltdown.

Many of you guys love T-Rank but KPom’s projections seem much more accurate to me, pre-season.

I love T-Rank's customizability (is that a word?) and how you can really zero in on specific time periods. I wish Pomeroy would add a similar tool. It would also be nice if it was easier to look back at snapshots in time of what the rankings were on a given date. You can do it now, but it's incomplete and difficult to get to.

MU82

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2019, 12:13:01 PM »
Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2019, 12:22:06 PM »
17 seems about right. When I ran the numbers myself I came up with 14 for MU. The talent level is unquestionably top 25 level. The questionable piece is if the coaching staff can depart from their system because I don't think we have the pieces to run the same offense we have the past four seasons
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Cheeks

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2019, 12:26:14 PM »
How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I’ll wait...
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Cheeks

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2019, 12:30:44 PM »
Isn't KenPom the one that ranked F%cky #1 for about 5 straight seasons? I hope they are as bad as the service now says, but we'll see.

As for MU, it would be wonderful to see if this rating (or even better) pans out. I'm a bit anxious about how freakin' important non-con is gonna be to this season. I know it's always important but seems moreso this year to me for some reason.

He had them top 5 for a number of years which he acknowledged often.

https://kenpom.com/blog/on-wisconsin-the-faq/
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

tower912

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2019, 12:34:26 PM »
So, according to one measurement, the sky remains aloft.   17 seems about right.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

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Class71

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2019, 12:55:31 PM »
Best news in a long time. Let's see if we can do it.
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Hards_Alumni

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2019, 01:41:45 PM »
How good is this data before even a single game is played? 

I’ll wait...

Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

Cheeks

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2019, 01:51:36 PM »
Let me guess, its a crapshoot!

This time of year...yes
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Marcus92

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2019, 02:23:35 PM »
How good is this data before even a single game is played?

It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.
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tower912

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2019, 02:25:19 PM »
The IU scrimmage bears this out.
Luke 6:45   ...A good man produces goodness from the good in his heart; an evil man produces evil out of his store of evil.   Each man speaks from his heart's abundance...

It is better to be fearless and cheerful than cheerless and fearful.

Cheeks

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2019, 02:56:07 PM »
It's true that the 2019-20 Marquette team hasn't yet played a single game.

But apart from Symir and Dexter, all of Pomeroy's data is based on past in-game performance at the Division I level -- and adjusted for the level of competition. There's 3 seasons worth of data on Markus, Sacar, Ed and Jayce, 2 seasons of data on Koby, Theo and Jamal, and 1 season of data on Brendan and Greg. Those 9 players are projected to account for the vast majority of minutes played this season.

KenPom has proven to be one of the most accurate systems for predicting margin of victory. Like any statistical model, it's a tool for evaluation. The tool will obviously be much less precise at this point. Marquette's ranking 15 games into the season will provide a far better picture.

I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don’t know if pomeroy provides last year’s beginning of season numbers or not.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

MUDPT

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2019, 03:11:01 PM »
I get that part, but with 350 teams, some having massive changes, some only minor changes, there are a lot of variables outside of MU that also influence these ratings....let alone the departure of two key starters from our squad. 

I don’t know if pomeroy provides last year’s beginning of season numbers or not.

He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

PGsHeroes32

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2019, 05:01:57 PM »
Butler at 33???
Lazar picking up where the BIG 3 left off....

brewcity77

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2019, 05:23:35 PM »
Butler at 33???

I'll be honest, I think that's batcrap crazy. I'm not even sure they're an NIT team.

Cheeks

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Re: MU #17 in KenPom 2020 projection
« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2019, 08:13:34 PM »
He does. MU was 29 and ended 33.

Curious where that info is.  I have a subscription to pomeroy but couldn’t find it...thanks in advance.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire