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Author Topic: College Football is back  (Read 57287 times)

MU82

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #575 on: December 04, 2019, 10:06:08 AM »
If they take the 4 best teams, it’s Clemson and a clear no-brainer.

I agree, but I also probably would say that Alabama is one of the 4 best teams. They simply were not at their best, for a number of reasons, in a 5-point loss to LSU and a 3-point loss at Auburn. So they won't get to play among the final four, whether or not they are one of the 4 best.

If Clemson somehow loses Saturday, they still might make the playoff ... but if they don't make the playoff, the fault will be 100% their own. (I know you're not saying anything different.)

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Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #576 on: December 04, 2019, 10:06:40 AM »

Not really.  They are sending the message that Wisconsin has no chance, which they shouldn't.  If Georgia wins, they're in.  If they don't, it looks like it could be Utah, or the winner of Oklahoma v. Baylor.  That's it.

Wisconsin would need to beat the doors off Ohio State and have a lot more chaos in front of them and even then, I don’t see a path. 
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Mr. Nielsen

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #577 on: December 04, 2019, 10:07:06 AM »

Not really.  They are sending the message that Wisconsin has no chance, which they shouldn't.  If Georgia wins, they're in.  If they don't, it looks like it could be Utah, or the winner of Oklahoma v. Baylor.  That's it.

OK, I'm fine with a 2 loss Wisconsin having no chance.  Why wouldn't Baylor be ranked ahead of Wisconsin the week before? There is zero reason Baylor should jump Wisconsin, when Baylor beat Kansas and Wisconsin beat Minnesota last week.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2019, 10:08:46 AM by Mr. Nielsen »
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #578 on: December 04, 2019, 10:08:13 AM »
I agree, but I also probably would say that Alabama is one of the 4 best teams.


Yeah, I don't think so.  Not much evidence that's the case at all.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #579 on: December 04, 2019, 10:08:51 AM »
I agree, but I also probably would say that Alabama is one of the 4 best teams. They simply were not at their best, for a number of reasons, in a 5-point loss to LSU and a 3-point loss at Auburn. So they won't get to play among the final four, whether or not they are one of the 4 best.

If Clemson somehow loses Saturday, they still might make the playoff ... but if they don't make the playoff, the fault will be 100% their own. (I know you're not saying anything different.)

I can see that scenario, too, and agree about Alabama.  I think the top 3 are locks.  About all a Clemson loss does is drop them to the 4, I believe and that would probably be worse for the 1-seed
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Fluffy Blue Monster

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #580 on: December 04, 2019, 10:08:56 AM »
OK, I'm fine with a 2 loss Wisconsin have no chance.  Then, why wouldn't Baylor be ranked ahead of Wisconsin the week before? There is zero reason Baylor should jump Wisconsin, when Baylor beat Kansas and Wisconsin beat Minnesota last week.


Because the polls are a PR excercise meant to justify the final four selections and not a logical one.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #581 on: December 04, 2019, 10:10:11 AM »

Yeah, I don't think so.  Not much evidence that's the case at all.

The metrics love Alabama.  LSU is simply better this year and that’s why LSU won. 
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Pakuni

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #582 on: December 04, 2019, 10:14:32 AM »

Yeah, I don't think so.  Not much evidence that's the case at all.

With a healthy Tua, they're definitely a top 4 team.
But they haven't had a healthy Tua for six weeks.

Its DJOver

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #583 on: December 04, 2019, 10:37:50 AM »
Teams with little or no chance to make the playoffs that would have had a reasonable chance to go unbeaten with Clemson's schedule: Baylor, Florida, Penn State, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, maybe even Minnesota.  If you're going to punish UCF for playing an incredibly soft schedule (something I agree with), why would you not treat Clemson the same way?  Wasn't Bama blasted because their SOS was incredibly soft for the first 8 weeks, and they were in the top 4 on reputation alone?   We judging Clemson on 2019, or combined 2018-19?

Now, I think they'll beat UVA and make this all unnecessary, an unbeaten P5 team gets in, but they're going to get either Ohio State, or LSU in the semi's.  How it's going to look if a team that only beat Bama by 5 blows out Clemson?

Pakuni

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #584 on: December 04, 2019, 10:55:09 AM »
Teams with little or no chance to make the playoffs that would have had a reasonable chance to go unbeaten with Clemson's schedule: Baylor, Florida, Penn State, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, maybe even Minnesota.  If you're going to punish UCF for playing an incredibly soft schedule (something I agree with), why would you not treat Clemson the same way?  Wasn't Bama blasted because their SOS was incredibly soft for the first 8 weeks, and they were in the top 4 on reputation alone?   We judging Clemson on 2019, or combined 2018-19?

Now, I think they'll beat UVA and make this all unnecessary, an unbeaten P5 team gets in, but they're going to get either Ohio State, or LSU in the semi's.  How it's going to look if a team that only beat Bama by 5 blows out Clemson?

It's a bit silly, though, to judge a team solely or primarily by its strength of schedule. Clemson can't control the fact that the ACC is trash right now, thanks largely to the demise of Florida State and Miami. At some point, don't you have to judge the quality of a team by how it performs, rather than just who it performs against? SOS definitely ought to be a factor, but it shouldn't be used to exclude a team that checks all the other boxes.

MU82

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #585 on: December 04, 2019, 11:00:49 AM »

Because the polls are a PR excercise meant to justify the final four selections and not a logical one.

The polls might or might not be "a PR exercise" -- if that is your opinion, cool. But the AP poll pre-dates the final four selections by eight decades.

So if anything, the playoff system was instituted to "justify" the polls.
“None of these steps we’re asking people to take are political statements. Every one of them is based on science, real science. ... I know the country has grown weary of the fight. We need to remember we’re at war with the virus, not with one another.”

-- President Joe Biden

MU82

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #586 on: December 04, 2019, 11:01:54 AM »
With a healthy Tua, they're definitely a top 4 team.
But they haven't had a healthy Tua for six weeks.

True dat.
“None of these steps we’re asking people to take are political statements. Every one of them is based on science, real science. ... I know the country has grown weary of the fight. We need to remember we’re at war with the virus, not with one another.”

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Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #587 on: December 04, 2019, 11:06:31 AM »
Teams with little or no chance to make the playoffs that would have had a reasonable chance to go unbeaten with Clemson's schedule: Baylor, Florida, Penn State, Auburn, Alabama, Michigan, Notre Dame, maybe even Minnesota.  If you're going to punish UCF for playing an incredibly soft schedule (something I agree with), why would you not treat Clemson the same way?  Wasn't Bama blasted because their SOS was incredibly soft for the first 8 weeks, and they were in the top 4 on reputation alone?   We judging Clemson on 2019, or combined 2018-19?

Now, I think they'll beat UVA and make this all unnecessary, an unbeaten P5 team gets in, but they're going to get either Ohio State, or LSU in the semi's.  How it's going to look if a team that only beat Bama by 5 blows out Clemson?

All things aren’t equal.  That’s why I dismiss arguments about fairness when it comes to players earning off their NLI.  There are haves and have nots.

Is that fair to UCF?  Nope.  My argument here will be using computer numbers.  Not many computers, if any, had UCF in the top 4 or top 8 for that matter.  Clemson has been a top 4 team all year.

I also add, blowouts in the semi-finals aren’t that rare and probably means the team that does the blowing out is that much better
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Its DJOver

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #588 on: December 04, 2019, 11:08:11 AM »
It's a bit silly, though, to judge a team solely or primarily by its strength of schedule. Clemson can't control the fact that the ACC is trash right now, thanks largely to the demise of Florida State and Miami. At some point, don't you have to judge the quality of a team by how it performs, rather than just who it performs against? SOS definitely ought to be a factor, but it shouldn't be used to exclude a team that checks all the other boxes.


Agree that its not Clemson's fault, same way it wasn't UCF fault, but when you're hanging you hat on a Texas A&M team that hasn't beaten a team over .500 this year, I think it warrants a little more scrutiny.   Florida's best win (Auburn) is exponentially better, but they're done because they lost to UGA and LSU (two current top 4 teams).  Auburn beat that same A&M team, plus has wins over Oregon and Bama, yet they're done because they lost to UFA, LSU, and UGA.  Bama won on the road @A&M by a larger margin that Clemson won by at home, plus has proven its ability to pound inferior teams and look great doing it.  The "eye test" has it's merits at times, but at some point, you have to beat someone.

Its DJOver

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #589 on: December 04, 2019, 11:15:19 AM »
All things aren’t equal.  That’s why I dismiss arguments about fairness when it comes to players earning off their NLI.  There are haves and have nots.

Is that fair to UCF?  Nope.  My argument here will be using computer numbers.  Not many computers, if any, had UCF in the top 4 or top 8 for that matter.  Clemson has been a top 4 team all year.

I also add, blowouts in the semi-finals aren’t that rare and probably means the team that does the blowing out is that much better

Clemson's in the top 4 because of their success last year, their ability to beat an A&M team in early September (who was not as good as the #12 ranking they had at the time), and their ability to not screw up and beat inferior opponents.  Beating Georgia Tech 52-14 may look good, but then you look and see that GT also lost to the Citadel, and scored 2 whole points against Temple, and it becomes very meh.

Full disclosure, with the implementation of the CFP, I've upped my CFB games watched per year from 1 to 3, so not exactly in my element, but if we're going to start using computer numbers again, why not just go back to BCS rankings? 

Mr. Nielsen

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #590 on: December 04, 2019, 11:24:41 AM »
With a healthy Tua, they're definitely a top 4 team.
But they haven't had a healthy Tua for six weeks.

Who is their best win? @ Texas A&M. Alabama's defense is very poor.
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Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #591 on: December 04, 2019, 11:27:09 AM »
Clemson's in the top 4 because of their success last year, their ability to beat an A&M team in early September (who was not as good as the #12 ranking they had at the time), and their ability to not screw up and beat inferior opponents.  Beating Georgia Tech 52-14 may look good, but then you look and see that GT also lost to the Citadel, and scored 2 whole points against Temple, and it becomes very meh.

Full disclosure, with the implementation of the CFP, I've upped my CFB games watched per year from 1 to 3, so not exactly in my element, but if we're going to start using computer numbers again, why not just go back to BCS rankings?

They’re also undefeated.  A 1-loss Clemson would be scrambling for the last spot with OU, Baylor, Utah and Georgia and have no room for error Saturday.

I’d be fine if the committee used metrics as a barometer for a teams worth
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Its DJOver

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #592 on: December 04, 2019, 11:36:00 AM »
They’re also undefeated.  A 1-loss Clemson would be scrambling for the last spot with OU, Baylor, Utah and Georgia and have no room for error Saturday.

I’d be fine if the committee used metrics as a barometer for a teams worth

I've already stated that I think it'll be unnecessary because I think that they'll beat UVA and and undefeated P5 team should get in.  My hypothetical is if they lose to UVA. 

There is certainly an argument to take a two loss team that has marquee wins (Florida, or Penn State for example), over a 1 loss team with no good wins.  Just look at Auburn's schedule; Oregon (neutral site), @Florida, @LSU, Georgia, and Bama.  That's three top 10 teams and an additional 2 top 15 (not to mention beating the same A&M team that is Clemson's best win).  If they had found a way to turn one of their three L's into W's, I would certainly take a two loss Auburn over a 1 loss Clemson.

Pakuni

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #593 on: December 04, 2019, 11:41:00 AM »
Who is their best win? @ Texas A&M. Alabama's defense is very poor.

They don't lose to Auburn with a healthy Tua, and maybe even beat LSU.

And, again, it's lazy and over simplistic to judge teams only by who they've beaten. It's not irrelevant, but it's far from comprehensive.

Uncle Rico

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #594 on: December 04, 2019, 11:46:01 AM »
I've already stated that I think it'll be unnecessary because I think that they'll beat UVA and and undefeated P5 team should get in.  My hypothetical is if they lose to UVA. 

There is certainly an argument to take a two loss team that has marquee wins (Florida, or Penn State for example), over a 1 loss team with no good wins.  Just look at Auburn's schedule; Oregon (neutral site), @Florida, @LSU, Georgia, and Bama.  That's three top 10 teams and an additional 2 top 15 (not to mention beating the same A&M team that is Clemson's best win).  If they had found a way to turn one of their three L's into W's, I would certainly take a two loss Auburn over a 1 loss Clemson.

I understand your argument and politely disagree if that’s ok in scoop.  I simply think Clemson would beat all the teams you list, including Auburn
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Its DJOver

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #595 on: December 04, 2019, 11:52:06 AM »
I understand your argument and politely disagree if that’s ok in scoop.  I simply think Clemson would beat all the teams you list, including Auburn

Perfectly fine to disagree, I'm just laying out the argument against Clemson. 

I know that schedules get made years in advance, but I would hope that Clemson put together a better non-conference next year to avoid all this, because even with a Oregon, or Iowa caliber win on their resume, I think they could lose a game and be in no problem.  Hell, go beat the crap out of Bucky.  If Clemson is as good as some think, it should be no problem, and it's always fun to see Bucky get stomped by an actual contender.

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #596 on: December 04, 2019, 01:06:37 PM »
With a healthy Tua, they're definitely a top 4 team.
But they haven't had a healthy Tua for six weeks.


And that's not really relevant.
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Mr. Nielsen

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #597 on: December 04, 2019, 01:44:37 PM »
They don't lose to Auburn with a healthy Tua, and maybe even beat LSU.

And, again, it's lazy and over simplistic to judge teams only by who they've beaten. It's not irrelevant, but it's far from comprehensive.

Ok, I'll give you Auburn with two pick six in that game that hurt Bama. Yet, LSU. Tua played in that game and played well. Alabama never lead in that game. There defense was bad.
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Cheeks

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #598 on: December 06, 2019, 09:01:41 AM »
Ooopsie....I'm sorry, so sorry, so so sorry

SI reporter apologizes for f'ing up about Clay Helton 4 days later.   https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/12/04/new-sports-illustrated-sports-illustrated-can-dispute-its-own-reporting/

https://youtu.be/r-TkjEdB1kE
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Pakuni

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Re: College Football is back
« Reply #599 on: December 06, 2019, 09:53:18 AM »
Ooopsie....I'm sorry, so sorry, so so sorry

When will you apologize for posting the same false info here?

 

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