Real MLB Thread

[Benny B]

I wonder if the Fangraphs system is still overvaluing run differential.  As far as I know, (which is little, admittedly), those calculations don't factor in the loss of any individual player.

That's the only explanation I can think of.   To have the Cubs' odds >2x the Brewers' odds is ridiculous when you consider the remaining schedules (as Glow and Dr. B have outlined)... by the numbers, the Brewers actually control their own destiny to a postseason spot, and what's more, they get to do so against 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the NL.



Not a postseason odds matter, but Brewers also have tie-breakers over Cubs, Mets, Phillies, and Snakes, i.e. game 163 (for WC or division) will be at Miller Park unless it's against the Redbirds.

[TallTitan34]

the Brewers actually control their own destiny to a postseason spot, and what's more, they get to do so against 4 of the bottom 5 teams in the NL.

How do they control their destiny? 

[The Sultan]

How do they control their destiny? 

Because with the Cubs and Cardinals playing one another 7 times, if the Brewers go 13-0, they will pass at least one of the Cubs and Cardinals.  Assuming both the Cubs and Cardinals win the rest of their other games.

Cardinals go 7-0, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 6-1, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 5-2, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and tie the Cardinals
Cubs go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 5-2, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 6-1, they pass the Cardinals and tie the Cubs
Cubs go 7-0, they pass the Cardinals

[Benny B]

Additionally, in any scenario where the Cardinals win the rest of their games, the Brewers would, at worst, tie the Nationals.

Because with the Cubs and Cardinals playing one another 7 times, if the Brewers go 13-0, they will pass at least one of the Cubs and Cardinals.  Assuming both the Cubs and Cardinals win the rest of their other games.

Cardinals go 7-0, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 6-1, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 5-2, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and tie the Cardinals
Cubs go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 5-2, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 6-1, they pass the Cardinals and tie the Cubs
Cubs go 7-0, they pass the Cardinals

[TallTitan34]

Because with the Cubs and Cardinals playing one another 7 times, if the Brewers go 13-0, they will pass at least one of the Cubs and Cardinals.  Assuming both the Cubs and Cardinals win the rest of their other games.

Cardinals go 7-0, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 6-1, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 5-2, they pass the Cubs
Cardinals go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and tie the Cardinals
Cubs go 4-3, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 5-2, they pass the Cubs and the Cardinals
Cubs go 6-1, they pass the Cardinals and tie the Cubs
Cubs go 7-0, they pass the Cardinals

Except the Cubs or Cardinals could win out and no matter what the Brewers do it won't matter.

I know it's unlikely but that's what controlling your destiny means. The Cubs and Cardinals actually control their destiny.

You could have said the Cubs controlled their own destiny last season with the Brewers and Cardinals playing each other at the end of the season but how did that work out?  The Brewers won all of their games.

[The Sultan]

Except the Cubs or Cardinals could win out and no matter what the Brewers do it won't matter.

I know it's unlikely but that's what controlling your destiny means. The Cubs and Cardinals actually control their destiny.

You could have said the Cubs controlled their own destiny last season with the Brewers and Cardinals playing each other at the end of the season but how did that work out?  The Brewers won all of their games.

The Brewers control their own destiny for a playoff spot.  No matter what the Cubs and Cardinals do, if the Brewers finish the season 13-0, they are guaranteed to pass either the Cubs or Cardinals, and at least be the second wild card team.

[buckchuckler]

Except the Cubs or Cardinals could win out and no matter what the Brewers do it won't matter.

They can't actually.  As it has been pointed out they play each other 7 times.  Any possible outcomes in those games give the Brewers a chance if they win out. 

[jsglow]

Except the Cubs or Cardinals could win out and no matter what the Brewers do it won't matter.

I know it's unlikely but that's what controlling your destiny means. The Cubs and Cardinals actually control their destiny.

You could have said the Cubs controlled their own destiny last season with the Brewers and Cardinals playing each other at the end of the season but how did that work out?  The Brewers won all of their games.

Saddling the other with 7 losses.   

The Crew only has to pass one, not both.

Update:  Woody gets the start tomorrow.

[TallTitan34]

Ah good call.

[SaveOD238]

Now the Crew gets to face the Pirates without Felipe Vazquez, as he was arrested on child solicitation and pornography charges.  Absolutely disgusting.  The Pirates could have traded him at the deadline and avoided this mess, but they must have been completely unaware. 

Knowing professional sports though, the Pirates will cut him, he'll get cleared, and then he'll be pitching for the Yankees next year on the cheap.

[GB Warrior]

Now the Crew gets to face the Pirates without Felipe Vazquez, as he was arrested on child solicitation and pornography charges.  Absolutely disgusting.  The Pirates could have traded him at the deadline and avoided this mess, but they must have been completely unaware. 

Knowing professional sports though, the Pirates will cut him, he'll get cleared, and then he'll be pitching for the Yankees next year on the cheap.

They should cut him now so the Cubs can say some strong words and plug him into their bullpen

[cheebs09]

They should cut him now so the Cubs can say some strong words and plug him into their bullpen

Or the Patriots will pick him up.

[Jockey]

Why is Matt Albers pitching in a pennant race?

[jsglow]

Why is Matt Albers pitching in a pennant race?

He's actually had a pretty solid year.  Unlike last year in the second half.

Crew wins again putting the pressure on.  Couns has to be thrilled with what Woody gave him for 37 pitches.

[Benny B]

Keep climbing the ladder, Crew. 

[Jockey]

He's actually had a pretty solid year.  Unlike last year in the second half.

Crew wins again putting the pressure on.  Couns has to be thrilled with what Woody gave him for 37 pitches.

An ERA around 5 is terrible for a 7th - 8th inning guy.

Love what Woody did tonight. Stretch him out to 4-5 innings next time.

[MU82]

Cubs, at home, can't beat a bad Reds team in a critical game.

That's why I say "Kudos to the teams who win the games they're supposed to win." It's not as easy as it sounds.

So right now, the Cubs and Brewers are tied for 2nd, 2 games behind the Cards. They also are tied for the 2nd wild-card spot, 1.5 games behind the Nats.

Fun stuff!

[Bad_Reporter]

You get those sick tix from the players' families?

Players families?  Who said I'm not family, big Chief?   

For being a big brewers fan, I don't see why you don't accept my offer.  I think I can figure out the real reason though.  Keep it real behind the keyboard, warrior.

[SaveOD238]

An ERA around 5 is terrible for a 7th - 8th inning guy.

Love what Woody did tonight. Stretch him out to 4-5 innings next time.

The Albers hate in Brewer fandom is insane.  The guy has the occasional blowup game, usually in games we were already losing (like the first Cubs game two weeks ago), but between those he goes 5, 6, 7 games in a row without allowing any runs.

[wadesworld]

Players families?  Who said I'm not family, big Chief?   

For being a big brewers fan, I don't see why you don't accept my offer.  I think I can figure out the real reason though.  Keep it real behind the keyboard, warrior.

I have posted who I am many times here. There's never been any hiding. I don't need to disable social media accounts because I got called out on MUScoop. I'll leave you to that.

[jsglow]

The Albers hate in Brewer fandom is insane.  The guy has the occasional blowup game, usually in games we were already losing (like the first Cubs game two weeks ago), but between those he goes 5, 6, 7 games in a row without allowing any runs.

Right. He's been fine this year.  All star, of course not.

Changing the subject.  Remember all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Stearns' trade deadline acquisitions?  Yeah, he's damn good.

[jficke13]

Right. He's been fine this year.  All star, of course not.

Changing the subject.  Remember all the wailing and gnashing of teeth over Stearns' trade deadline acquisitions?  Yeah, he's damn good.

Yeah, Pomeranz was filthy last night. Quietly an extraordinary pick up.

[Jockey]

The Albers hate in Brewer fandom is insane.  The guy has the occasional blowup game, usually in games we were already losing (like the first Cubs game two weeks ago), but between those he goes 5, 6, 7 games in a row without allowing any runs.

I don't hate the guy. I just don't want him in a close game. Since the all-star break his ERA is awful. Also walking almost a batter per inning.

[drewm88]

Cubs, at home, can't beat a bad Reds team in a critical game.

That's why I say "Kudos to the teams who win the games they're supposed to win." It's not as easy as it sounds.

So right now, the Cubs and Brewers are tied for 2nd, 2 games behind the Cards. They also are tied for the 2nd wild-card spot, 1.5 games behind the Nats.

Fun stuff!

To be fair, they'd just won 5 straight against bad teams. Sucks in the moment, but I'll take 5 out of 6. No Rizzo, no Javy, and KB has never been able to figure out Sonny Gray.

[buckchuckler]

To be fair, they'd just won 5 straight against bad teams. Sucks in the moment, but I'll take 5 out of 6. No Rizzo, no Javy, and KB has never been able to figure out Sonny Gray.

Gray has had a very good season.  A great bounce back.  The Reds look good in that trade/ extension.