Real MLB Thread

[jsglow]

#Crew

[cheebs09]

Our post season runs typically have some memorable Braun homers.

[MU82]

Padres ... Pirates ... Reds ... Rockies ... that's who the Brew Crew get to finish with.

Pirates really put up quite the fight against the Cubbies, who I believe just hit another 3-run HR.

Could be a wild finish. Let's see if Brewers can take advantage of Cubbies and Cards having to beat up on each other.

[jsglow]

An important part of the Crew's winning 2-3 is that the Cards continue to have to play serious ball.  No coasting the rest of the way.  7 games with the Cubs is a ton.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Brewers have to get it done without Yelich against an easier schedule. Cubs have to get it done without Baez and now potentially Rizzo against a tougher (but not insane) schedule. Cards have the toughest schedule remaining. Should be an interesting two weeks.

[withoutbias]

Brewers have to get it done without Yelich against an easier schedule. Cubs have to get it done without Baez and now potentially Rizzo against a tougher (but not insane) schedule. Cards have the toughest schedule remaining. Should be an interesting two weeks.

and have had to do it without their best pitcher and second best hitter for a while now.

any word on when or if keston or woodruff return this year?

[jsglow]

and have had to do it without their best pitcher and second best hitter for a while now.

any word on when or if keston or woodruff return this year?

I'd expect both this week.  Keston will initially PH.  Woody they are deciding how to maximize him down the stretch.  Threw 25 simulated day or two ago.

[The Sultan]

Keston pinch hit today and singled.

[Cheeks]

Hope he can bounce back quickly. Looks like Rizzo just badly sprained his ankle. Bummer seeing all these stars hurt at the end of the year.

Yup, big bummer. 

[wadesworld]

The best fans in baseball cleared out VERY quickly with 4 outs left in the game today. And they had a chance to tie it up too. Would've been a very quiet celebration for a home game in a pennant race had they completed the comeback in the bottom of the ninth.

[cheebs09]

The best fans in baseball cleared out VERY quickly with 4 outs left in the game today. And they had a chance to tie it up too. Would've been a very quiet celebration for a home game in a pennant race had they completed the comeback in the bottom of the ninth.

It's the team's fault for not living up to fan expectations. They really had no choice but to leave.

[jsglow]

These next two weeks are going to be very interesting.  Frankly, if the Crew simply does their job they'll be in the post season.  The Cubs and the Cards play a combined 26 games.  And in those 26 exactly 7 are guaranteed to be a loss.  The very best the combined tandem can go is 19-7 and obviously both will lose other games as well.  So it's not unrealistic at all that one or the other could play sub .500 ball down the stretch.  St Louis has a particularly challenging schedule.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go from the division lead to out by the time this is over.  Yesterday was huge for the Crew.  And the Cubs should be thanking their northern neighbors as well.

[Dr. Blackheart]

These next two weeks are going to be very interesting.  Frankly, if the Crew simply does their job they'll be in the post season.  The Cubs and the Cards play a combined 26 games.  And in those 26 exactly 7 are guaranteed to be a loss.  The very best the combined tandem can go is 19-7 and obviously both will lose other games as well.  So it's not unrealistic at all that one or the other could play sub .500 ball down the stretch.  St Louis has a particularly challenging schedule.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go from the division lead to out by the time this is over.  Yesterday was huge for the Crew.  And the Cubs should be thanking their northern neighbors as well.

Let's not forget the Nats in this. Only a 1.5 game wildcard lead over the Cubs, 2.5 over the Brewers.  Three games upcoming versus the Cards. 

[The Sultan]

So I am playing around on Fan Graphs this morning, and was surprised to see that they have the playoff odds like this:

Cardinals: 86.3%
Cubs: 72.7%
Brewers: 36.1%

They have the Brewers and Cubs going 7-6 the rest of the way, and the Cardinals 6-7.  This is despite the Brewers having the easiest of the three schedules.  Are they evaluating the Brewers without Yelich?  Is it because of their negative run differential, saying that they have been playing inordinately "lucky" lately?

[#UnleashSean]

And the Cubs should be thanking their northern neighbors as well.

If the cubs had a choice between the brewers missing the playoffs or the cards losing their 100 game. We'd choose the cards losing 100

[wadesworld]

The Brewers had a very difficult first month and a half of the season and then the schedule lightened up quite a bit.  I think they had a stretch of something like 26 straight games or maybe 26 of 29 games against sub .500 teams.  The thinking was if they're .500 after the first month and a half they'll be in great position.  They were 10 games over .500 at that point and then went something like 9-17 against the sub .500 teams.

This still isn't last year's team, especially without Yelich.  When the Brewers won a couple series against the Cubs and then the schedule really opened up to end the season last year you knew they were going to make their run.  This year?  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers went 6-7 down the stretch despite the weak schedule.

[cheebs09]

The Brewers had a very difficult first month and a half of the season and then the schedule lightened up quite a bit.  I think they had a stretch of something like 26 straight games or maybe 26 of 29 games against sub .500 teams.  The thinking was if they're .500 after the first month and a half they'll be in great position.  They were 10 games over .500 at that point and then went something like 9-17 against the sub .500 teams.

This still isn't last year's team, especially without Yelich.  When the Brewers won a couple series against the Cubs and then the schedule really opened up to end the season last year you knew they were going to make their run.  This year?  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Brewers went 6-7 down the stretch despite the weak schedule.

The good news is they've already started taking care of business against Miami. True, they could still lay an egg the rest of the month.

I think this will be different than earlier in the year since Counsell is so good at using a September roster. He has more flexibility in the bullpen and can pull the starter or reliever a lot quicker.

[#UnleashSean]

For some reason I keep forgetting they still expanded rosters this year. It's next year they go down to 26.

[WI inferiority Complexes]

So I am playing around on Fan Graphs this morning, and was surprised to see that they have the playoff odds like this:

Cardinals: 86.3%
Cubs: 72.7%
Brewers: 36.1%

They have the Brewers and Cubs going 7-6 the rest of the way, and the Cardinals 6-7.  This is despite the Brewers having the easiest of the three schedules.  Are they evaluating the Brewers without Yelich?  Is it because of their negative run differential, saying that they have been playing inordinately "lucky" lately?

I wonder if the Fangraphs system is still overvaluing run differential.  As far as I know, (which is little, admittedly), those calculations don't factor in the loss of any individual player.

[jsglow]

The Crew absolutely had a bad run in June when they shoulda made some hay.  But the reality is they are 11-3 here in September with fully 10 of those games against playoff teams and are playing inspired ball.  Moreover, every man on the roster knows that they are absolutely capable because, well, they did the exact same thing last year.  They MUST avoid any letdowns but a prediction of .500 ball the rest of the way out is a bet anyone would take today.  The run differential stinks, no doubt. 

Fivethirtyeight has them at 48%.  That feels about right.

[#UnleashSean]

This race should be a close one. Nico may be a Savior for the Cubs.

[JWags85]

Let's not forget the Nats in this. Only a 1.5 game wildcard lead over the Cubs, 2.5 over the Brewers.  Three games upcoming versus the Cards.

Yep.  Especially with the inanity of Dave Martinez' decision making.  Was watching some of their game on Saturday due to the WC implications.  Brings Suero in during the 6th for relief, holding a 1-0 lead.  He promptly gives up 2 hits and the tying run.  Leaves him in to start the 7th where he walks the next 2 guys on I think 9 pitches total.  Then brings in Rodney with 2 on.  Now you have base runners for Acuna and Albies with only 1 out and naturally they feast and the Nats get blown out.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

The best fans in baseball cleared out VERY quickly with 4 outs left in the game today. And they had a chance to tie it up too. Would've been a very quiet celebration for a home game in a pennant race had they completed the comeback in the bottom of the ninth.

Lots of red seats at the end of Saturday's game too. 

Must have to beat the world's best traffic.

[TallTitan34]

See attached.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yep.  Especially with the inanity of Dave Martinez' decision making.  Was watching some of their game on Saturday due to the WC implications.  Brings Suero in during the 6th for relief, holding a 1-0 lead.  He promptly gives up 2 hits and the tying run.  Leaves him in to start the 7th where he walks the next 2 guys on I think 9 pitches total.  Then brings in Rodney with 2 on.  Now you have base runners for Acuna and Albies with only 1 out and naturally they feast and the Nats get blown out.

He learned all that with his years as Joe's right hand man.