Jeopardy!

[StillAWarrior]

Is anyone paying attention to the guy who is just crushing it on Jeopardy?  I don't generally watch, but I heard them talking about it on the radio, so I've tuned in the last couple of days.

The guy is a sports bettor from Vegas.  In just 10 days, he's amassed just under $700,000.  Before he started on the show, the highest single-day total ever was $77,000.  This guy has broken that four times in 10 shows, including $131,000 yesterday (and also $110k, $106k and $89k).  Hell, he had $71,000 yesterday before even making his final wager (the competition had around $5,000 each).  He's a machine.

Yes, I know...totally geeky to be watching (much less posting about) Jeopardy!

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Those two other contestants yesterday looked like they wanted out about halfway through the second round.  The middle one looked pissed because he was answering everything.

[StillAWarrior]

Those two other contestants yesterday looked like they wanted out about halfway through the second round.  The middle one looked pissed because he was answering everything.

That really would suck to spend your entire adult life hoping to get on Jeopardy, and then when you get your chance, you're playing against a f'ing machine.

[JWags85]

Is anyone paying attention to the guy who is just crushing it on Jeopardy?  I don't generally watch, but I heard them talking about it on the radio, so I've tuned in the last couple of days.

The guy is a sports bettor from Vegas.  In just 10 days, he's amassed just under $700,000.  Before he started on the show, the highest single-day total ever was $77,000.  This guy has broken that four times in 10 shows, including $131,000 yesterday (and also $110k, $106k and $89k).  Hell, he had $71,000 yesterday before even making his final wager (the competition had around $5,000 each).  He's a machine.

Yes, I know...totally geeky to be watching (much less posting about) Jeopardy!

Dude is fascinating.  Not only is he a great player, he's clearly applying game theory and +EV (very common fundamentals for poker players and gamblers), which shockingly nobody really has before.  Its the difference between him and someone like Ken Jennings who was just a great trivia mind.

670 had him on the other day.  Definitely kind of an awkward dude, but it is fascinating.  Hard to see who can stop him short of a weird board he just doesn't connect on.  If he starts getting into 20-30 win totals, much less approaching Ken Jennings, they might start sweating cause their potential loss is substantial.

[CTWarrior]

Dude is fascinating.  Not only is he a great player, he's clearly applying game theory and +EV (very common fundamentals for poker players and gamblers), which shockingly nobody really has before.  Its the difference between him and someone like Ken Jennings who was just a great trivia mind.

670 had him on the other day.  Definitely kind of an awkward dude, but it is fascinating.  Hard to see who can stop him short of a weird board he just doesn't connect on.  If he starts getting into 20-30 win totals, much less approaching Ken Jennings, they might start sweating cause their potential loss is substantial.

Why is their potential loss substantial? 

The guy is ridiculous.  He is a perfect storm of a Jeopardy player.  He is extremely knowledgeable on a wide range of topics.  He is a gambler and bets large sums when he hits the Double Jeopardys.  But I think the biggest thing is that he has the buzzer timing down.  I would guess about 25-30% of the questions are ones that more than 90% of Jeopardy contestants know, and he gets the lion's share of those.  You can't buzz in until a millisecond after Alex finishes reading the question.  If you buzz early there is a delay before you can buzz in again.  He seems to have that timing down perfectly.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Why is their potential loss substantial? 

The guy is ridiculous.  He is a perfect storm of a Jeopardy player.  He is extremely knowledgeable on a wide range of topics.  He is a gambler and bets large sums when he hits the Double Jeopardys.  But I think the biggest thing is that he has the buzzer timing down.  I would guess about 25-30% of the questions are ones that more than 90% of Jeopardy contestants know, and he gets the lion's share of those.  You can't buzz in until a millisecond after Alex finishes reading the question.  If you buzz early there is a delay before you can buzz in again.  He seems to have that timing down perfectly.

Is there a Ken Jennings Pay Per View event on the horizon?

[JWags85]

Why is their potential loss substantial? 

The guy is ridiculous.  He is a perfect storm of a Jeopardy player.  He is extremely knowledgeable on a wide range of topics.  He is a gambler and bets large sums when he hits the Double Jeopardys.  But I think the biggest thing is that he has the buzzer timing down.  I would guess about 25-30% of the questions are ones that more than 90% of Jeopardy contestants know, and he gets the lion's share of those.  You can't buzz in until a millisecond after Alex finishes reading the question.  If you buzz early there is a delay before you can buzz in again.  He seems to have that timing down perfectly.

Ken Jennings wont $2.5MM over 74 episodes.  Holzhauer has $700K thorough 10 episodes.  At this rate, he'd pass Jennings in the mid 30s and would be over $5MM if he approached his streak, and thats assuming he's not hitting these $100-110K rounds regularly. 

Jeopardy is fine, Trebek makes like $10MM a year, so its not like he'll bankrupt the show, but they will be paying out WAY more money than usual.

[wadesworld]

Ken Jennings wont $2.5MM over 74 episodes.  Holzhauer has $700K thorough 10 episodes.  At this rate, he'd pass Jennings in the mid 30s and would be over $5MM if he approached his streak, and thats assuming he's not hitting these $100-110K rounds regularly. 

Jeopardy is fine, Trebek makes like $10MM a year, so its not like he'll bankrupt the show, but they will be paying out WAY more money than usual.

They will be paying out way more money than usual, but, I assume, they will also be getting a ton more viewers than usual as his streak continues to grow.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

And I'm sure whomever owns Jeopardy has taken the appropriate steps to mitigate any losses.  Like a stop loss insurance policy or something similar. 

[Jockey]

Dude is fascinating.  Not only is he a great player, he's clearly applying game theory and +EV (very common fundamentals for poker players and gamblers), which shockingly nobody really has before.  Its the difference between him and someone like Ken Jennings who was just a great trivia mind.

670 had him on the other day.  Definitely kind of an awkward dude, but it is fascinating.  Hard to see who can stop him short of a weird board he just doesn't connect on.  If he starts getting into 20-30 win totals, much less approaching Ken Jennings, they might start sweating cause their potential loss is substantial.

Beat me to it. Can't imagine why no one has ever done this before. How many times have we seen a guy get the daily double on an $800 dollar question and "risk" only $1000? Almost every contestant is worried about losing money rather than going for it to make money.

[StillAWarrior]

Beat me to it. Can't imagine why no one has ever done this before. How many times have we seen a guy get the daily double on an $800 dollar question and "risk" only $1000? Almost every contestant is worried about losing money rather than going for it to make money.

There are a lot of really smart things that he's doing.  First of all, by hitting the high value clues first, he's getting to those before his competitors are getting comfortable in the game which gives him an immediate advantage.  Also, by hitting those first he's building a substantial bankroll before he hits the daily double -- which allows him to bet a large amount.  The other day he was at $20k or so when the went to the first commercial break.

And the smartest thing he's doing:  answering all the questions correctly.  That's probably his best strategic move.    I heard on the radio this morning that he was 40 for 40 last night.

It's also interesting that sometimes when he has a seemingly insurmountable lead in double jeopardy, he seems to take a break for a while.  I haven't paid that close of attention, but I wonder if it corresponds to when one of the other players is in the negatives.  I wonder if he's giving them a chance to get back above zero to compete for second place.

[Jockey]

There are a lot of really smart things that he's doing.  First of all, by hitting the high value clues first, he's getting to those before his competitors are getting comfortable in the game which gives him an immediate advantage.  Also, by hitting those first he's building a substantial bankroll before he hits the daily double -- which allows him to bet a large amount.  The other day he was at $20k or so when the went to the first commercial break.

And the smartest thing he's doing:  answering all the questions correctly.  That's probably his best strategic move.    I heard on the radio this morning that he was 40 for 40 last night.

It's also interesting that sometimes when he has a seemingly insurmountable lead in double jeopardy, he seems to take a break for a while.  I haven't paid that close of attention, but I wonder if it corresponds to when one of the other players is in the negatives.  I wonder if he's giving them a chance to get back above zero to compete for second place.

Easy to see why he's a professional gambler.

[StillAWarrior]

Easy to see why he's a professional gambler.

I read an interview with him and he was asked about the strangest bet he'd made (or something like that).  He said that a casino let him bet $75,000 that Ken Griffey, Jr. would get more than 75% of the HoF ballots.  Who in the hell took that bet?  I can only guess that it was some now-bankrupt casino.

[LloydsLegs]

Article on The Ringer today goes into great detail on what is his greatest advantage:  beating his opponents to the buzzer.  Jeopardy is not like scholastic bowl etc where you can buzz in at any point--bc they want the viewers to hear the entire question, you are not allowed to buzz in until Alex finishes the Q, and a producer then triggers a light.  If you go early, you cannot hit again for .25 seconds.  He trained on quick reaction time etc. (and then of course all of what you guys note above can kick in - get questions right, big bets early, control the board, DD...)

https://www.theringer.com/tv/2019/4/18/18456756/james-holzhauer-jeopardy-winner-alex-trebek-ken-jennings

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Beat me to it. Can't imagine why no one has ever done this before. How many times have we seen a guy get the daily double on an $800 dollar question and "risk" only $1000? Almost every contestant is worried about losing money rather than going for it to make money.

The whole dynamic of positioning yourself well for Final Jeopardy is why you usually don't see big bets.  If you are losing, making a big bet that risks you going underneath the 50% threshold where you can't win is a losing play.

OTOH, the only time it makes sense to make big bets when you leading, is when you are WAY out in front.  Like he usually is. 

So the reason he can afford to make big bets is because he is generally way out in front.  There have been times late in the game where he makes small bets to make sure he stays at least double to the second place person to ensure a win.

And the smartest thing he's doing:  answering all the questions correctly.  That's probably his best strategic move.    I heard on the radio this morning that he was 40 for 40 last night.

What's smart is that he's not guessing.  Ringing in a guess is what gets a lot of contestants in trouble.  Only ring in when you are reasonably sure you know the answer - or at least can figure it out in the few seconds you have.

[StillAWarrior]

It also helps if you don't have knowledge gaps.

[JWags85]

It also helps if you don't have knowledge gaps.

Trebek is at his best when he is snarky, dismissive, or flat out annoyed by the contestants.  That was great

[Jockey]

The whole dynamic of positioning yourself well for Final Jeopardy is why you usually don't see big bets.  If you are losing, making a big bet that risks you going underneath the 50% threshold where you can't win is a losing play.

OTOH, the only time it makes sense to make big bets when you leading, is when you are WAY out in front.  Like he usually is. 

So the reason he can afford to make big bets is because he is generally way out in front.  There have been times late in the game where he makes small bets to make sure he stays at least double to the second place person to ensure a win.




What's smart is that he's not guessing.  Ringing in a guess is what gets a lot of contestants in trouble.  Only ring in when you are reasonably sure you know the answer - or at least can figure it out in the few seconds you have.

I had a friend who was on the show and he said the same thing. Most of the contestants know the majority of answers, but it is all about the timing on the buzzer.

[StillAWarrior]

11 days and $771,920...and counting

[CTWarrior]

They will be paying out way more money than usual, but, I assume, they will also be getting a ton more viewers than usual as his streak continues to grow.

You are probably right, but I find the show less interesting with the games over at the first commercial break.

[NorthernDancerColt]

That really would suck to spend your entire adult life hoping to get on Jeopardy, and then when you get your chance, you're playing against a f'ing machine.

Now we know how Sam feels in an offense run for Markus, el maquina.

[Lennys Tap]

Trebek is at his best when he is snarky, dismissive, or flat out annoyed by the contestants.  That was great

Best game show host ever. Did I read/hear that he is suffering from pancreatic cancer?

[jsglow]

Best game show host ever. Did I read/hear that he is suffering from pancreatic cancer?

Yes.

[Bad_Reporter]

Best game show host ever. Did I read/hear that he is suffering from pancreatic cancer?

Stage 4 too I believe.  Was really upset when I heard him talk about it at the end of a show. Pulling for you, Alex!

[StillAWarrior]

Friday's show was interesting.  He seemed "off his game" and the other two contestants were hanging around.  At the end of first round, he only had around $5k or so, and the others were fairly close.

Of course, he finished with $80k plus.  Even with what seemed like an "off" game he managed to post a score higher than any other player has ever gotten.  Crazy.