Program trajectory and wojo

[RJax55]

I think everyone agrees with this.

Honestly, I'm not so sure. Coaches only have so long to make an impact. I see the opportunity missed as a very significant moment for both Wojo and the program.

Short-term: I worry if the rumors of Markus leaving are true, how does this upward trend talking point continue? Most teams don't improve after losing their conference's player of the year.

Long-term: I think we both agree that MU is not the easiest job to recruit to. Even given the history, resources, etc. Without significant accomplishments to point to after five years, I'm concerned how Wojo sells his program.

[79Warrior]

Not ready to do that yet.  It will just put us back starting all over again in my view.

I agree. He should get another year. Not sure why the wheels fell off down the stretch, but a coaching change now sets MU back again. Assuming everyone returns, the team will be solid next season. If he cannot get it done next year, then it will be time to start over.

As far as UNLV, no way he is interested in that gig. That is rumor central at its best. Wojo has not given the slightest indication he is unhappy. The dude is a competitor, he is not leaving for a mid major program.

[jesmu84]

If I were to plot out Wojo's tenure from Day 1 there would be upward slope until this past February when the trend is now decidedly negative.

So, the trend line is negative. This fact is indisputable.

Season over season improvement. That's all I'm looking for. You're entitled to a different opinion.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why are peeps so willin' ta extend another year. Watt's gonna change? Rip da bandage off and let's get started, hey?

Who was the last coach to get fired after leading a team to a top 5 seed with no off the court issues?

[Jon]

Who was the last coach to get fired after leading a team to a top 5 seed with no off the court issues?

Larry Brown. He "left" KU after winning a Natty. He landed with the Spurs. But he didn't want to leave KU.

The Panty Dropper can fill in the details.


Bob Huggins. He was canned by the new UC Prez who really didn't like the man. There were no crimes committed. There were no NCAA violations. She didn't like Huggins' drinking and the fact that his guys left early to play pro ball. Personality conflict.


Frank Martin. Did he really 'choose to leave' Manhattan, KS?

[Pakuni]

Bob Huggins. He was canned by the new UC Prez who really didn't like the man. There were no crimes committed. There were no NCAA violations. She didn't like Huggins' drinking and the fact that his guys left early to play pro ball. Personality conflict.

Cincy was a 7 seed the year Huggins got the boot.

Frank Martin. Did he really 'choose to leave' Manhattan, KS?

Yes.
Also, K-State was an 8 seed the year Martin left.

[Cheeks]

Larry Brown. He "left" KU after winning a Natty. He landed with the Spurs. But he didn't want to leave KU.

The Panty Dropper can fill in the details.


Bob Huggins. He was canned by the new UC Prez who really didn't like the man. There were no crimes committed. There were no NCAA violations. She didn't like Huggins' drinking and the fact that his guys left early to play pro ball. Personality conflict.


Frank Martin. Did he really 'choose to leave' Manhattan, KS?

Nope, these are all wrong.

Larry Brown's KU team went on probation for 3 years a few short months after he left.  In today's age, KU would have been stripped of the title.  He knew he was going down hard with the ship, so he went to the Spurs.  Whether he would have been canned is speculative, but KU got thrown into NCAA jail.

Bob Huggins was a 7 seed, not top 5 as TAMU stated, when he was pushed out.

Frank Martin was a 8 seed at K State, not a top 5 seed as TAMU stated.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Larry Brown. He "left" KU after winning a Natty. He landed with the Spurs. But he didn't want to leave KU.

The Panty Dropper can fill in the details.


Bob Huggins. He was canned by the new UC Prez who really didn't like the man. There were no crimes committed. There were no NCAA violations. She didn't like Huggins' drinking and the fact that his guys left early to play pro ball. Personality conflict.


Frank Martin. Did he really 'choose to leave' Manhattan, KS?

There were off the court issues in all of these situations and only Larry Brown was a top 5 seed. Also, only one of them was fired.

[CTWarrior]

I recognize the program Wojo inherited. Here's the reality, for the past 40 years, getting a 5 seed and losing in the first round has been an above average season for Marquette. We are not a program that regularly grabs high seeds and makes deep tournament runs. Buzz had an improbable sweet 16 run as a team that barely made the tournament, grabbed two three seeds and made two second weekend appearances and then nosedived. Unfortunate truth is that we had an upward trend and then it crashed to Earth during Buzz' last year and departure. That is the program Wojo inherited and need to build back up.

I know we got a 5 seed, but that was because the NCAA really has unusual reasoning to say the least this year.  By any objective computer measure (including the NCAA's own NET ranking) we deserved a 7 seed or worse.  We got the 5 because we were 10-5 in Quad 1 games and had a pretty good road/neutral record (8-6).   Swap our splits with Georgetown and Creighton to home wins instead of road wins, and we have a team that is now 8-7 in Quad 1 games and 6-8 in road/neutral games and are probably a 7 seed despite having an identical season.  Also it appears that the old late season record test they used to use is out the window as well (although I agree with that, as I believe the NCAA tournament entry and seeding should be based on the totally of your resume without favoring later games over earlier ones) or we may have done even worse using old criteria.

Does anybody here really think we were the 17th best team in the country on selection Sunday? 

I don't know where a 7 seed would rank in the last 40 years, but I expect it would still be really high up there.

[CTWarrior]

Davidson was 14 of 22 from the free throw line, 64%.  As a team they shot 80% that year, they choked hard that game from the line...it was due to our free throw defense apparently.  They were the number one free throw shooting team in the country that year.

And they threw the ball away to win the game.  It was a gift.

We got damn lucky, which is exactly what Buzzard said.  On that day, it was better be lucky than good...thankfully.

In order to capitalize on that gift we had to hit three consecutive late threes and score inbounding the ball with less than 10 seconds on the clock to win the game.  They missed one FT and turned the ball over once (we were pressing, which is trying to get turnovers, BTW) during the end game.  Sure they weren't perfect down the stretch, but we were, and that is the point.  We played fantastically well at the end of that game, which is what "clutch" teams do.

[Cheeks]

In order to capitalize on that gift we had to hit three consecutive late threes and score inbounding the ball with less than 10 seconds on the clock to win the game.  They missed one FT and turned the ball over once (we were pressing, which is trying to get turnovers, BTW) during the end game.  Sure they weren't perfect down the stretch, but we were, and that is the point.  We played fantastically well at the end of that game, which is what "clutch" teams do.

Also true, but it was a gift and we were lucky....as Buzz said.  That's how close a first round exit happens vs an Elite 8 run. One free throw or one bad pass, and all of a sudden the entire narrative is turned.  As much as we were hitting those 3's, Davidson was bricking a lot of free throws during the game which they had made at 80% during the year.  That's luck, for some reason Nickle says luck doesn't exist in sports which blows my mind.  This is why I hate it when people put all of it on what happens in March.  40 minutes, on in some cases, 2 seconds, should not define a year, but I know it does for some people. I will agree with Mark Few on that one. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I know we got a 5 seed, but that was because the NCAA really has unusual reasoning to say the least this year.  By any objective computer measure (including the NCAA's own NET ranking) we deserved a 7 seed or worse.  We got the 5 because we were 10-5 in Quad 1 games and had a pretty good road/neutral record (8-6).   Swap our splits with Georgetown and Creighton to home wins instead of road wins, and we have a team that is now 8-7 in Quad 1 games and 6-8 in road/neutral games and are probably a 7 seed despite having an identical season.  Also it appears that the old late season record test they used to use is out the window as well (although I agree with that, as I believe the NCAA tournament entry and seeding should be based on the totally of your resume without favoring later games over earlier ones) or we may have done even worse using old criteria.

Does anybody here really think we were the 17th best team in the country on selection Sunday? 

I don't know where a 7 seed would rank in the last 40 years, but I expect it would still be really high up there.

17th best team in the country? No. 17th best resume? Yes. To me that either means the team was pretty good or the coach got them to punch above their weight class.

[CTWarrior]

17th best team in the country? No. 17th best resume? Yes. To me that either means the team was pretty good or the coach got them to punch above their weight class.

I don't think it was the 17th best resume for reasons mentioned in the earlier post.  We got wins against teams in the lower portion of the top 75 on the road (Butler, Xavier, Creighton and Georgetown) that made our resume look better than it was.  Then we lost to a couple of them at home and they didn't count as Quad 1 losses at home that made our Quad 1 record look better than it really was.  I think the NCAA's criteria was different this year than usual and that it went in our favor. 

But I get what you're saying.

[Dr. Blackheart]

17th best team in the country? No. 17th best resume? Yes. To me that either means the team was pretty good or the coach got them to punch above their weight class.

Judging from all these blowouts...it looks like most of CBB is down this season.  Lots of upsets and unexpected blow outs.  Very fine lines between good and bad.

[curbina]

If I were to plot out Wojo's tenure from Day 1 there would be upward slope until this past February when the trend is now decidedly negative.

So, the trend line is negative. This fact is indisputable.

Jon is correct. A Linear regression line can be used to determine the slope of a line. The trend line is negative.

If  a stock is rising in value from Dec to Feb and rolls over late Feb and Mar, would you buy or sell the stock in question?

[cheebs09]

Judging from all these blowouts...it looks like most of CBB is down this season.  Lots of upsets and unexpected blow outs.  Very fine lines between good and bad.

I think the gap between the top 4 seed lines and the rest is pretty big.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I think the gap between the top 4 seed lines and the rest is pretty big.

+1

[Cheeks]

Jon is correct. A Linear regression line can be used to determine the slope of a line. The trend line is negative.

If  a stock is rising in value from Dec to Feb and rolls over late Feb and Mar, would you buy or sell the stock in question?

This is season long trend from year to year.  In this case, trend line down is a good thing because it is tied to the rating of the team.  Better than Buzz's last year by a bunch, slightly worse than Buzz's second to last year.

[muguru]

This is season long trend from year to year.  In this case, trend line down is a good thing because it is tied to the rating of the team.  Better than Buzz's last year by a bunch, slightly worse than Buzz's second to last year.

Talk trends all you want...let's talk about the on court results...like the commercial says "just ok...is NOT ok". Or at least it shouldn't be. I think for the admin it is though.

[Cheeks]

Talk trends all you want...let's talk about the on court results...like the commercial says "just ok...is NOT ok". Or at least it shouldn't be. I think for the admin it is though.

That data is based 100% on the ON COURT results. 

[muguru]

That data is based 100% on the ON COURT results.

Fine, but what i'm telling you is...the 5 years Wojo has been here have NOT by any stretch met MY expectations. I have season tickets(15 years now), I donate every year to the B&G fund..I expect more. That's my right.

[Cheeks]

Fine, but what i'm telling you is...the 5 years Wojo has been here have NOT by any stretch met MY expectations. I have season tickets(15 years now), I donate every year to the B&G fund..I expect more. That's my right.

That's nice.  And like I said, you have every right to feel that way. I also think you are going to be disappointed to no end then, and perhaps should spend money elsewhere.  Your choice, spend anyway you want.

Look, I hope we win it all, become a powerhouse again.  I'm pragmatic, think we can become really really good again, the process is slow and too slow for some...clearly.  But that doesn't change the FACTS (not emotions) that we are trending the right way.  Leave emotion out of it.  Leave your expectations out of it for a second, it is factual to say we are trending the right way under any objective measurement.  Those that say no, are either ignorant or lying.  No other answer.

Now, you may wish to say we aren't trending better quickly enough...fine...but that doesn't change that over the last 6 years (including Buzz), we are trending upward and nearly back to where he was his second to last year, and better than his last year.  PURE FACTS.

[curbina]

Trend lines must be drawn w.r.t time, you're using a 6 year time frame that includes one year of buzz data. Your trend line is just BS!

[curbina]

W.r.t trend lines, data used must be actual data NOT data from talking heads!

[Cheeks]

Trend lines must be drawn w.r.t., you're using a 6 year time frame that includes one year of buzz data. Your trend line is just BS!

Here's the trend line for only Wojo, still trending the right way.  Just facts.  Trend line even better.  Sorry the data doesn't fit your agenda.  Apologize when you are ready.

Note:  2019 are not final numbers as tournament still playing.  I will post final numbers when the tournament is done.