Most likely upsets to happen in first round

[mr.MUskie]

By Neil Greenberg (The Washington Post)

No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Murray State

Chance at upset: 37 percent, DAViD score: 130

Murray State generated 2.1 possessions per game via offensive rebound and turnover differentials, whereas Marquette ceded 2.1 possessions per game to its opponents, a clear indication that Marquette could be in over its head in the first round.

The Racers are also efficient shooters (55 percent effective field goal rate, 22nd best) who convert an above-average rate of shots near the basket (1.2 points per possession, 59 percent field goal rate) and down low in the post (1.1 points per possessions, 87th percentile).

[HowardsWorld]

By Neil Greenberg (The Washington Post)

No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 Murray State

Chance at upset: 37 percent, DAViD score: 130

Murray State generated 2.1 possessions per game via offensive rebound and turnover differentials, whereas Marquette ceded 2.1 possessions per game to its opponents, a clear indication that Marquette could be in over its head in the first round.

The Racers are also efficient shooters (55 percent effective field goal rate, 22nd best) who convert an above-average rate of shots near the basket (1.2 points per possession, 59 percent field goal rate) and down low in the post (1.1 points per possessions, 87th percentile).

I just don't see this happening. I know everyone likes to pick the 12 vs 5 upset but I don't see it. We have far more weapons they then do. Yes they have a top 5 pick in the NBA draft but unless he is hitting from deep its going to be hard to match what MU is doing. 

[NickelDimer]

Much like most of our season this will likely come down to whether we beat ourselves or not. 5 of the last 6 (with some help from the refs) has shown we're not above beating ourselves. Play our game and we'll handle biz

[Goose]

IMO, everyone tries to pick that one upset special and MS seems to be the flavor of the day. I would be extremely disappointed if MU did not have a somewhat convincing W on Thursday. That said, I have only seen highlights of MS and read the reviews. Teams are seeded for a reason and MU should win this game.

[muwarrior69]

IMO, everyone tries to pick that one upset special and MS seems to be the flavor of the day. I would be extremely disappointed if MU did not have a somewhat convincing W on Thursday. That said, I have only seen highlights of MS and read the reviews. Teams are seeded for a reason and MU should win this game.

Since we are the highest seeded 5 is Murray State the lowest seeded 12?

[HowardsWorld]

Since we are the highest seeded 5 is Murray State the lowest seeded 12?

The tournament does not seed on a true S curve anymore so no. The weakest 12 is Oregon.

[PVMagic]

One of the "typical" 12 over 5 upsets is a sliding/middling major power conf team against a stronger mid major... that being said, I think if healthy, MU will be fine (MU has weaknesses, exposed, however I think they are tougher to exploit when he's at full strength... his health is the big question for me going forward).  I think MU can stop Ja, but he's a special talent realty-made for "One Shining Moment" highlights.  I'm confident, but not cocky.

The rest of the country mostly just sees 5 of 6 and Ja Morant.  Before the bracket was announced, I think MU was going to be a popular first round loss, and MSU a first round win.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

KenPom supports this.  We are the least favored 5 in his probabilities.  Also in his S curve we are the last 60%+ probability team for a win with everyone below us either pick-em or not favored.

Interestingly VU sits right above us in his S-Curve and is basically a pick-em for their game.  I thought they would be more favored but in his analysis they got the highest 11 seed in the tourney (by far).

[RushmoreAcademy]

37 percent? That's not far off from the actual 5/12 percentage.

And spring should be here around March 21st.

[Cheeks]

IMO, everyone tries to pick that one upset special and MS seems to be the flavor of the day. I would be extremely disappointed if MU did not have a somewhat convincing W on Thursday. That said, I have only seen highlights of MS and read the reviews. Teams are seeded for a reason and MU should win this game.

I don't care about how or what margin, only that we win.

We barely beat Utah State when they were an 11 seed, we barely beat Davidson when they were an 14.  I'm just fine barely beating MSU as long as it means a win.

[CTWarrior]

37 percent? That's not far off from the actual 5/12 percentage.

And spring should be here around March 21st.

Same with ESPN's prediction.  We are the most likely team to be upset, but they only give Murray State a 34% chance.  So they think we win this game 2 out of 3.  If we play our B game or better, we should take care of business.

[CTWarrior]

I don't care about how or what margin, only that we win.

We barely beat Utah State when they were an 11 seed, we barely beat Davidson when they were an 11.  I'm just fine barely beating MSU as long as it means a win.

I agree, but I'm getting older and my heart prefers it when we are up 10 or more late in the game and we cruise to the finish line.

[Lennys Tap]

I don't care about how or what margin, only that we win.

We barely beat Utah State when they were an 11 seed, we barely beat Davidson when they were an 11.  I'm just fine barely beating MSU as long as it means a win.

Barely beat Holy Cross when they were a 14 seed. Lost to Tulsa when they were a 12 and Washington when they were an 11.

[MU82]

I don't care about how or what margin, only that we win.

We barely beat Utah State when they were an 11 seed, we barely beat Davidson when they were an 11.  I'm just fine barely beating MSU as long as it means a win.

Just for clarification sake ... Davidson was a 14 and we were a 3 that year (2013).

Whenever I am feeling a little down about MU (or life), I'll watch the video of those last 75 seconds. Heck, I feel great today and I just watched it now before hitting the Post button on this!!!

[79Warrior]

Much like most of our season this will likely come down to whether we beat ourselves or not. 5 of the last 6 (with some help from the refs) has shown we're not above beating ourselves. Play our game and we'll handle biz

For sure. If this was January/early Feb I say we beat them easy. Not feeling the same way right now. I think many people will pick MS. We had a horrible close to the season. I will not be surprised if we lose this game. The team is just not in synch.

[MU82]

For sure. I this was January/early Feb I say we beat them easy. Not feeling the same way right now. I think many people will pick MS. We had a horrible close to the season. I will not be surprised if we lose this game. The team is just not in synch.

Well, there are no real surprises. MS has to be at least as good as half the BEast teams, and we could lose to or beat any of them on any night. Of course, we also could beat F%cky, K-State, Buffalo, 'Ville, Nova, hang with full-strength Kansas, etc.

We are the better team and I have the same "we're gonna play great" feeling I did before the most recent StJ game.

[Cheeks]

Barely beat Holy Cross when they were a 14 seed. Lost to Tulsa when they were a 12 and Washington when they were an 11.

Exactly.  Just win, all these games are going to be tough. 

[Cheeks]

Just for clarification sake ... Davidson was a 14 and we were a 3 that year (2013).

Whenever I am feeling a little down about MU (or life), I'll watch the video of those last 75 seconds. Heck, I feel great today and I just watched it now before hitting the Post button on this!!!

You are correct, I will edit.

[RushmoreAcademy]

I agree, but I'm getting older and my heart prefers it when we are up 10 or more late in the game and we cruise to the finish line.

Nothing on the internet surrounding the tournament has made more sense than this.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Just for clarification sake ... Davidson was a 14 and we were a 3 that year (2013).

Whenever I am feeling a little down about MU (or life), I'll watch the video of those last 75 seconds. Heck, I feel great today and I just watched it now before hitting the Post button on this!!!

Wasn't there something with that DU seed though and a play-in team that year?  That Davidson was higher and had to be moved back due to a conflict?  I seem to remember something goofy.

[MUfan12]

Wasn't there something with that DU seed though and a play-in team that year?  That Davidson was higher and had to be moved back due to a conflict?  I seem to remember something goofy.

I thought it was 2012 when BYU was bumped down a line to accommodate a Th/Sat schedule.

[Bocephys]

Wasn't there something with that DU seed though and a play-in team that year?  That Davidson was higher and had to be moved back due to a conflict?  I seem to remember something goofy.

I think that was just Buzz lying to the media during his aw-shucks post-game routine.

[Billy Hoyle]

I thought it was 2012 when BYU was bumped down a line to accommodate a Th/Sat schedule.

That is correct - it was BYU in 2012.  BYU had a monster comeback against Iona from 25 down to win by 6. 

Anyone remember MU's next opponent after BYU?

[Sir Lawrence]

Anyone remember MU's next opponent after BYU?

Murray State.  MU won. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Murray State.  MU won.

In Kentucky no less. So much for that protected seed...