[Cracked Sidewalks] Selection Sunday

[brewcity77]

We are just hours from Selection Sunday & it seems Marquette is sandwiched squarely between the 5 & 6 lines depending on the source. With that in mind, I thought I'd take a look the teams on the 12 line that could show up in the bracket later tonight & the quick reaction I'll have if they are the matchup. I also included a couple of 11-seeds, just in case we fall.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2019/03/selection-sunday.html

[Silkk the Shaka]

I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12

[Nukem2]

Palm, Lunardi and USA Today all have MU as a 6 seed this morning.

[HowardsWorld]

I am ok with a 6 seed. Even if 5 we would have been an underdog in the second round. The only issue is that this team if playing to potential is more like a 3 seed so it screws the true 3 seed in the event MU makes the second round. Second round should be a spread of 3 to 4 points anyways. I'll take my chances beating LSU, Houston, Purdue, or FSU.

[GrimmReaper33]

I don't want to see Oregon or St Mary's in the first game.  I also have a hard time seeing MU getting a 5 seed at this point. 

Don't see us being ahead of Nova, Miss St or even Iowa St.  I'd be surprised if we're a 5.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Palm, Lunardi and USA Today all have MU as a 6 seed this morning.

Bracketmatrix has Marquette as a 5 but it is really close.  Here is what they have as of 8 am CDT:

5 Auburn  (5.44 avg)
5 Marquette  (5.48 avg)
5 Villanova  (5.49 avg)
6 Mississippi State  (5.50 avg)

So BM has a virtual tie from 18-21.  It is razor thin between a 5 seed and the first 6 seed.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bracketmatrix has Marquette as a 5 but it is really close.  Here is what they have as of 8 am CDT:

5 Auburn  (5.44 avg)
5 Marquette  (5.48 avg)
5 Villanova  (5.49 avg)
6 Mississippi State  (5.50 avg)

So BM has a virtual tie from 18-21.  It is razor thin between a 5 seed and the first 6 seed.

Nova is going to jump MU for sure...by winning the BE and the BET.  So its MSU or MU and I think location settles it.  Losing 5 of 6 won’t help when subjectivity enters the equation, imo.

[brewcity77]

I don't want to see Oregon or St Mary's in the first game.  I also have a hard time seeing MU getting a 5 seed at this point. 

Don't see us being ahead of Nova, Miss St or even Iowa St.  I'd be surprised if we're a 5.

It will depend on how the Committee treats Championship Week. There's usually less movement this time of the year because a team's resume by now mostly is what it is. I think MU's 10 Q1 wins still carry a ton of weight. Mississippi State & Iowa State have 10, no one else behind us has more than 6.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Interesting. Palm and Lunardi have 3 of 4 the same schools in Dayton.
Arizona State
St. John's
TCU

Split on Ohio State and Temple. Both still as a 11 seed.

[Nukem2]

Whatever the seed, I suspect the talking heads and other “gurus” will have MU as an upset special?

[muguru]

It will depend on how the Committee treats Championship Week. There's usually less movement this time of the year because a team's resume by now mostly is what it is. I think MU's 10 Q1 wins still carry a ton of weight. Mississippi State & Iowa State have 10, no one else behind us has more than 6.

Brew, you do such fantastic work, I don't like to question you..but, I see Mississippi St and Iowa St with only 8 Q1 wins each..It should also be noted for argument's sake, that MU's road record was better then both of those as well.

Q1 wins

Virginia -12
MSU-12(would be 13 with a win today)
Duke-11
Kansas-11
Kentucky- 10
North Carolina-10
UW-10
MU-10

*Both Tennessee and Michigan have 9 but would go to 10 with wins today

And I know you agree with me here and this is just for reference...SJU has NO BUSINESS being in the NCAA tournament...period. I do not want them in, and hopefully they do not get in.

[brewcity77]

Brew, you do such fantastic work, I don't like to question you..but, I see Mississippi St and Iowa St with only 8 Q1 wins each..It should also be noted for argument's sake, that MU's road record was better then both of those as well.

That was just me mistyping. I was staring at the Nitty Gritty report that said 8 for each of them when I wrote that. Just a mistake. 8 for both of them is correct. Especially as my point of MU's 10 Q1 wins being valuable would lose a lot of its merit if I'm citing multiple teams behind them with the same number of Q1 wins.

[brewcity77]

So I'm looking at the bubble...started the day with 18 teams for the final 7 spots.

In the 68-team era, no team has earned an at-large bid with a record less than 4 games over .500 (and that happened just twice, 19-15 Alabama in 2018 & 19-15 Vandy in 2017) which eliminates Texas, Indiana, Alabama, & Xavier from consideration. I then looked at the NET. Personally, I don't think any sub-60 NET teams get in. It was rare with RPI & the Top-16 showed they are largely sticking close to the NET rankings as they mentioned 20 teams that day, all of whom were in the top-21 of the NET at the time. That rules out Arizona State & St. John's. Incidentally, ASU & SJU also have more losses outside Q1 than any other teams I was considering. Finally, I removed Clemson. 1-10 vs Q1 just isn't good enough. I know they had close losses, but there's just not enough actual substance there.

That leaves 11 teams for 7 spots: Florida, NC State, Furman, Washington, Belmont, Lipscomb, TCU, Creighton, Ohio State, Temple, & UNC-Greensboro.

[Nukem2]

Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.

#donedeal.  The question now is where? I think we can narrow it to west of the Mississippi: Salt Lake, San Jose or Tulsa.

[NickelDimer]

Great stuff Brew. Assuming we’re a 6 which 11 would we most/least want to face and which 3 most/least?

[brewcity77]

Bracket Matrix now has MU as a 6 seed.

I saw that, us and Mississippi State are virtually identical on the 5/6 line. My thought is that everyone is wrong on Auburn. They've moved ahead of us, but when the Selection Committee revealed their top-16, Auburn was the only team in the top-21 of NET not to be mentioned. That tells me the SC doesn't respect their resume as much as the metrics do. They only have 2 wins over certain at-large teams (Tennessee & MSU, both at home) & only 4 Q1 wins. I think they're a 6 at best.

[brewcity77]

Great stuff Brew. Assuming we’re a 6 which 11 would we most/least want to face and which 3 most/least?

It's really, really tough to say because that basically encompasses everyone on the bubble. The 12s will almost certainly all be auto-bids, so it's easier to guess who ends up there.

Personally, I wouldn't want to see Belmont at all. Their offense is tough to prepare for & they can score both inside & out. They also have a NBA talent in Dylan Windler who might not get the attention of Ja Morant but is an absolute terror & matchup nightmare.

I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State or Temple. The Buckeyes haven't played very well all year long & while Holtmann's a good coach, I think he's a year or two away. Temple has the big win over Houston, but that's their only top-40 win per Pomeroy all season long. They would get some points in transition & do have length in the backcourt, but there's nothing they do particularly well that unnerves me.

[MU82]

Even as a 6, we can get where we want to go -- the Final Four.

With apologies to wades for the look-ahead ...

I know that if we were still a 3-seed, we wouldn't be thrilled having to play a second-round game against a talented, balanced, 3-point shooting, good defensive team -- not to mention a team that played very well most of the year before slumping late but was obviously good enough to win all 5 of those late-season games they lost.

Yes, to get where we want to go, we'd likely have to beat a 1 anyway. But I would prefer playing the 2/3 in the S16 round rather than the other way around.

Our route could be similar to 2003 ... except rather than being a 3 playing a 6 in the second round, we'll be a 6 playing a 3.

Regardless of what happens, I'm psyched. And I vow not to complain about the seed (unless it's an 8 or something), because we had plenty of chances to significantly help our seeding.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I can’t believe I am going to write this because I am a stats guy, but I don’t get the Purdue love and haven’t all season. I am glad to see they have dropped to a 4 at least but they don’t pass the eye test for me to be that high.  Their B1G schedule was very favorable.  Yeah, they beat MSU and Bucky but their resume is qualitatively weaker than others.  I think the BE regular and tournament champion (and defending national champion) deserves their slot, for instance.

[SaveOD238]

I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12

Oregon is hot right now, but they're very similar to us.  Led by a diminutive point guard.  Depth, but no outstanding players.  I'd be worried more if they still had Bol Bol, but I don't hate an Oregon matchup.

I'd REALLY like to draw Ohio State.

[muguru]

It's really, really tough to say because that basically encompasses everyone on the bubble. The 12s will almost certainly all be auto-bids, so it's easier to guess who ends up there.

Personally, I wouldn't want to see Belmont at all. Their offense is tough to prepare for & they can score both inside & out. They also have a NBA talent in Dylan Windler who might not get the attention of Ja Morant but is an absolute terror & matchup nightmare.

I wouldn't mind seeing Ohio State or Temple. The Buckeyes haven't played very well all year long & while Holtmann's a good coach, I think he's a year or two away. Temple has the big win over Houston, but that's their only top-40 win per Pomeroy all season long. They would get some points in transition & do have length in the backcourt, but there's nothing they do particularly well that unnerves me.

This is all spot on Brew...Temple doesn't scare me. I mean Shizz Alston is a lot like Markus, in that if he gets rolling he's hard to stop..but they have no inside game to speak of and are lead by their Guards in Alston, Rose, and Nate Pierre-Louis. They do nothing spectacular..Ohio State as well. Same with TCU if it happens to be them...not a lot of depth, their starters play a TON of minugtes and their bigs are foul prone.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I want no part of Oregon, that's my nightmare draw as 5/12

That’s who Palm has us facing in a 6/11 matchup. Pretty much my last choice.

[Silkk the Shaka]

That’s who Palm has us facing in a 6/11 matchup. Pretty much my last choice.

Agree, catching Florida as an 11 if we're a 6 would be lights out for us too, I'd actually hate that more

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Agree, catching Florida as an 11 if we're a 6 would be lights out for us too, I'd actually hate that more

Yah, I suppose Florida is fairly close to the 10/11 cutoff, but man, after this week, Florida should be at worst a 10 IMO.