737 Max

[mu03eng]

Seems as good a time as any to use my favorite "line" of my fathers....I told Orville, I told Wilber, and now I'm telling you, that sumbitch is never gonna fly

[Benny B]

Could not agree with you more.

Inherently, I believe Boeing will do the right thing, whatever it is. There's too much at risk not to.

I'm reminded of the DC-10 cargo door incident back in the 1970s. The DC-10 had a cargo door that worked, as long as the cargo personnel managed the process of closing the door properly. There was a peep hole and if the pins were aligned correctly, you saw them in a certain position.

When the pins weren't aligned properly, the door wasn't latched. An American DC-10 flying to Detroit one night lost its cargo door over Ontario, blowing a huge hole in the fuselage because the door wasn't latched. An Airworthiness Directive went out to fix the door but the folks at what is now Turkish Airlines (THY) were new operators of the DC-10 and didn't act quickly enough. A fully loaded DC-10 took off at Paris, the door blew out and 346 people were killed.

Between that and the disposable engine problem (which again, was not following maintenance procedures coupled with bad flight manuals), the DC-10 was killed in the market.

Was there a design flaw? Probably not, but McDonnell Douglas kinda figured people would follow instructions.

We'll see if Boeing thought the same thing!

Actually, the truth is that THY had already installed the peep holes in the wake of AAL 96.

Incidentally, THY tried to blame it on MD saying the warning placard that shipped to them (that was supposed to warn against improper closure) wasn't readable by their employees, despite it being printed in English and Turkish.

[drewm88]

Asians are nasty

You have no business being a doctor. Or a Marquette alum.

[MU82]

That's how I view it. Kinda like FB during its privacy thing. It was a good deal when it dropped, but it wasn't a "get rich quick" steal either. It just made a solid stock stock just a little more affordable.

BA has been on my watchlist for a little while, and I might pull the trigger soon. Whether I buy or not, I suspect it will continue to be a solid long-term holding for those who own it.

In 2016, BA went under SEC investigation for an "accounting irregularity." The price dropped like a rock. I bought at 110. It turned out to be my single best investment during that time span, as the investigation turned up nothing of note. I've had my share of clunkers -- every investor has -- but BA sure hasn't been one of them!

[Bad_Reporter]

The United Kingdom just grounded 'em.  Senators from both sides of the aisle calling for the same.  And without mentioning them specifically by name, I'd say the FAA might want to pay attention to the  President's tweet.

MUpilot.  Talk to us brother.

Sorry for the delay glow.

The only thing I've heard is it's more then likely a "computer" issue. 

All newer jets now are "fly by wire" meaning there is no actual pulley and crank systems, but all operated by sensors and actuators.  I know the Boeing 777 is fly by wire but also has manual backup controls

It will be very Interesting to see what was discovered. 

It could also be faulty information given to the pilots. I recall before the lion air crash, the pilots were saying the AOA gauge (angle of attack) was faulty.  If this happens, the plane would automatically try to correct itself because the computer is telling it (hey dummy, the plane is about to stall). So the plane will then try to trim the nose down so the aircraft will gain airspeed.  The autopilot could also automatically disconnect because the airplane is thinking it's about to stall, so it gives all control inputs to the pilot at that point.  (I'm not sure how the 737 works, but most aircraft are like that).  The problem with eronious information is the plane is thinking it's stalling, trims the nose down, automatically disengages the autopilot, and the pilots maybe caught off guard by the event that's taking place

Those are really my only thoughts, I've never flown a 737 and I'm not sure on the systems on that plane.  If I hear anything from some friends who do fly them, I'll let you know

I don't want to Monday morning quarterback the pilots, Boeing, etc. the engineers at Boeing are much smarter then I could ever dream to be.  I do think American pilots are the most knowledgeable, and best trained you can get in the world though.  (Not at all including myself in that statement)

[jsglow]

Thanks pilot!  I think between you and Eng we can get proper interpretations of the facts as they present themselves.

I will comment on one thing that I find universally annoying; the media's obsession with hyperventilating over EVERYTHING.  Obviously we see our political discourse every day.  No need to use that example.  So lets try this topic.

Channel 5 Chicago was out at Midway reporting on the story.  They breathlessly mentioned that ALL SWA MAX-8 planes were grounded and that 140 flights nationwide were ALREADY canceled today and to call ahead!  The clear implication was that the overall airline system is about to crater.

Obviously that's ridiculous.  SWA has 34 of these planes out of a fleet of over 750, representing about 5% of their overall service but none of that was even mentioned so the public gets easily misled.  They also didn't mention that SWA has already flown 41,000 flights without incident to give the traveling public some context about this.  Nope, just more #fakenews narrative to drive eyeballs.

[Galway Eagle]

Asians are nasty

Comments like this would put you into that category as well.

[mu03eng]

Thanks pilot!  I think between you and Eng we can get proper interpretations of the facts as they present themselves.

I will comment on one thing that I find universally annoying; the media's obsession with hyperventilating over EVERYTHING.  Obviously we see our political discourse every day.  No need to use that example.  So lets try this topic.

Channel 5 Chicago was out at Midway reporting on the story.  They breathlessly mentioned that ALL SWA MAX-8 planes were grounded and that 140 flights nationwide were ALREADY canceled today and to call ahead!  The clear implication was that the overall airline system is about to crater.

Obviously that's ridiculous.  SWA has 34 of these planes out of a fleet of over 750, representing about 5% of their overall service but none of that was even mentioned so the public gets easily misled.  They also didn't mention that SWA has already flown 41,000 flights without incident to give the traveling public some context about this.  Nope, just more #fakenews narrative to drive eyeballs.

And I'm guessing no context that some of those cancelled flights had to do with weather and not the Max 8

[jficke13]

[...]  I do think American pilots are the most knowledgeable, and best trained you can get in the world though.  (Not at all including myself in that statement)

I've heard extremely high praise of Australian and Australian-trained pilots as well.

[jsglow]

And I'm guessing no context that some of those cancelled flights had to do with weather and not the Max 8

Of course not.  Moreover, I wonder how many folks out there genuinely think that every (or the vast majority) of 737s are impacted?  I mean seriously through no fault of their own in casual consumption of the news. 

Journalism today is simply horrible.   I know, different thread.  But I think this can be instructive for all of us on a completely apolitical topic.

[dgies9156]

Channel 5 Chicago was out at Midway reporting on the story.  They breathlessly mentioned that ALL SWA MAX-8 planes were grounded and that 140 flights nationwide were ALREADY canceled today and to call ahead!  The clear implication was that the overall airline system is about to crater.

Obviously that's ridiculous.  SWA has 34 of these planes out of a fleet of over 750, representing about 5% of their overall service but none of that was even mentioned so the public gets easily misled.  They also didn't mention that SWA has already flown 41,000 flights without incident to give the traveling public some context about this.  Nope, just more #fakenews narrative to drive eyeballs.

Brother Glow, do you believe that any "news" show anchored by Allison Rosati is "news?"

Channel 5 news is sensationalism to the max. On any given night, a 13-15 minute news hole will have 10-12 minutes of "public safety" news -- shootings, fires, traffic accidents, weather problems etc. To get viewers, they need attractive people sensationalizing to the extreme. The remaining news will be some type of "soft" story about cute puppies, sad babies etc.

Look at their field reporters. Do any of them have any intellectual capability whatsoever to explain to Chicago and the Midwest what's happening with the 737 Max? The only thing any of them seem to know how to do is stick a microphone in someone's face and ask, "how does it feel?"

Under these circumstances, of course they're going to get it wrong.

[Bocephys]

Unless they think they can get away with it.

Looks like they may have ignored some complaints: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/new-software-in-boeing-737-max-planes-under-scrutinty-after-second-crash/2019/03/13/06716fda-45c7-11e9-90f0-0ccfeec87a61_story.html?utm_term=.53c0ae357332

[jsglow]

Brother Glow, do you believe that any "news" show anchored by Allison Rosati is "news?"

Channel 5 news is sensationalism to the max. On any given night, a 13-15 minute news hole will have 10-12 minutes of "public safety" news -- shootings, fires, traffic accidents, weather problems etc. To get viewers, they need attractive people sensationalizing to the extreme. The remaining news will be some type of "soft" story about cute puppies, sad babies etc.

Look at their field reporters. Do any of them have any intellectual capability whatsoever to explain to Chicago and the Midwest what's happening with the 737 Max? The only thing any of them seem to know how to do is stick a microphone in someone's face and ask, "how does it feel?"

Under these circumstances, of course they're going to get it wrong.

I think the problem goes well beyond Channel 5.

[Benny B]

Domestically, the Max 8/9 groundings affect only:

4% of SWA flights
1% of UAL
1% of AAL

CNBC also reporting that at LGA this morning, ticket agents are consistently being asked by passengers what plane they are booked on, which in and of itself is unusual, with some passengers booked on 737NG's - or any Boeing airplane for that matter - even asking to be rebooked on other metal.

The media isn't doing any favors to anyone; nevertheless, if anyone needs yet another example of just how dumb Americans can be, look no further than those aforementioned asking to be re-booked (assuming CNBC's reports are accurate, of course).

--------------

That being said, I'm getting on a plane with my daughter next week; we won't know where until Sunday evening, but it's a pretty safe bet it's going to be a 737NG variant.  The reason I know this is because I always check what metal I'm on (not for safety reasons, but to identify seat configuration ala SeatGuru), and AAL flies a bunch of 737NG's out of ORD.  Assuming so, my AAL reservation might say "738" which is shorthand for the 737-800 (most popular)... I'm curious as to how many people are seeing "738" this morning and misinterpreting as the Max 8 (which is abbreviated as "7M8"). 

Whatever the case may be, she and I are getting on whatever metal we're booked on, whether it starts with a 7, A, M, E or C. 

If it's a DH3, different story.

[jsglow]

Good stuff Benny.  I always check my SWA metal because a 700 has 143 seats and an 800 has 175.  That way I know if my B-48 boarding position is 'fine'.

I admit to being an airline geek guy.  When I was a little boy, my mom would take me out to Mitchell where I would watch the planes from the old outdoor observation deck.

[dgies9156]

I think the problem goes well beyond Channel 5.

Concur but I'll admit they're an easy target.

The days of Bill and Walter at Channel 2 or Dan Miller and Carol Marin at Channel 4 in Nashville are so far in the rear view mirror that they're barely visible.

[dgies9156]

Domestically, the Max 8/9 groundings affect only:

4% of SWA flights
1% of UAL
1% of AAL

Brother Benny, in the case of United, the 737 Max affects a very small number of flights operated from Houston, Orlando and Los Angeles. I'm a 1K on United and I've had exactly one flight on a Max, from LA to Orlando. As somebody else suggested for Southwest, my guess is that fleet planning called Marana (Arizona) or Victorville (CA) and checked to see what's sitting in the desert and available on the short term.

There's probably a few 737s rolling into Orlando, Lake City or elsewhere for maintenance whose visit to the hanger may be delayed.

United's fleet has migrated in recent years toward the 737-800 and 737-900, neither of which is covered by the grounding.

[Benny B]

Brother Benny, in the case of United, the 737 Max affects a very small number of flights operated from Houston, Orlando and Los Angeles. I'm a 1K on United and I've had exactly one flight on a Max, from LA to Orlando. As somebody else suggested for Southwest, my guess is that fleet planning called Marana (Arizona) or Victorville (CA) and checked to see what's sitting in the desert and available on the short term.

There's probably a few 737s rolling into Orlando, Lake City or elsewhere for maintenance whose visit to the hanger may be delayed.

United's fleet has migrated in recent years toward the 737-800 and 737-900, neither of which is covered by the grounding.

I doubt there are any mothballed 737's, let alone any mid-hauls, at Pinal... mostly 747's, maybe a few DC-10's, neither for which I think the economics would be favorable (not to mention the irony of dusting off the DC-10 because of a potential design flaw in another plane).  When any narrow bodies end up at the boneyards, I think they're pretty much salvage, not storage, jobs.

UAL and AAL have enough of a fleet to cover short-term disruption, as well as their regionals who can pick up the slack... maybe even their partners (Star, OneWorld) on a one-off basis. 

SWA is a different story... they only fly variants of the 737, so they can't simply augment with other equipment because they don't have the mechanics, let alone the pilots, to service them.

As long as the grounding order doesn't last more than a few weeks, everyone will be find.

[jsglow]

Brother Benny, in the case of United, the 737 Max affects a very small number of flights operated from Houston, Orlando and Los Angeles. I'm a 1K on United and I've had exactly one flight on a Max, from LA to Orlando. As somebody else suggested for Southwest, my guess is that fleet planning called Marana (Arizona) or Victorville (CA) and checked to see what's sitting in the desert and available on the short term.

There's probably a few 737s rolling into Orlando, Lake City or elsewhere for maintenance whose visit to the hanger may be delayed.

United's fleet has migrated in recent years toward the 737-800 and 737-900, neither of which is covered by the grounding.

Less so for the 34 SWA planes now parked but for the next batch of orders.  I'm assuming Boeing is still making (or can easily make) 800s and 900s.  I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some of those roll off the line in the next year as 're-engineering' takes place on the Max.  Boeing may need some time and distance on this little PR problem (at a minimum).  If any of you know, is there an inventory out there on the interwebs where we can all see the 'recently retired' fleet?

Edit:  Thanks for the update Benny.

[Benny B]

If any of you know, is there an inventory out there on the interwebs where we can all see the 'recently retired' fleet?

Nothing up-to-date AFAIK.  Some of the data aggregators (e.g. FlightAware) might be able to put together a custom list of what planes have landed at the boneyards (but not taken off), but that's not going to be free.  Otherwise, best I could come up with is the last 80 landings at the boneyards (turns out there is at least one 737-700 that landed at Pinal last week - looks like it might be an old Icelandair plane).

[dgies9156]

Nothing up-to-date AFAIK.  Some of the data aggregators (e.g. FlightAware) might be able to put together a custom list of what planes have landed at the boneyards (but not taken off), but that's not going to be free.  Otherwise, best I could come up with is the last 80 landings at the boneyards (turns out there is at least one 737-700 that landed at Pinal last week - looks like it might be an old Icelandair plane).

Not sure this makes a heck of a lot of sense. If you are American, United or SWA, you have to recondition and repaint the planes and get crews up to speed. That's going to take some time and I think we're all hopeful the grounding of the Max planes are very short-term.

If I was United or American, I'd be looking to see how many of my 757s are immediately airworthy. I have the crews and the capability to fly this airplane now.

[jsglow]

Nothing up-to-date AFAIK.  Some of the data aggregators (e.g. FlightAware) might be able to put together a custom list of what planes have landed at the boneyards (but not taken off), but that's not going to be free.  Otherwise, best I could come up with is the last 80 landings at the boneyards (turns out there is at least one 737-700 that landed at Pinal last week - looks like it might be an old Icelandair plane).

That's great.  What's the boneyard airport code?

[Jockey]

Looks like they may have ignored some complaints: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/new-software-in-boeing-737-max-planes-under-scrutinty-after-second-crash/2019/03/13/06716fda-45c7-11e9-90f0-0ccfeec87a61_story.html?utm_term=.53c0ae357332

Fodder for lawsuits? As I wrote earlier, there were at least 8 anonymous complaints by pilots in the US who had experienced the same problem, but were able to deal with it. So, this was a problem Boeing was well aware of.


But the main point of this post is to ask some of the experts here why Ethiopian Airlines refused to let US experts analyze the black Box - instead sending it to Europe for analysis. According to reports I have read, it is a matter of distrust. But really just looking for opinions from some in the know.

[mudeltaforcegurl]

Sorry for the delay glow.

The only thing I've heard is it's more then likely a "computer" issue. 

All newer jets now are "fly by wire" meaning there is no actual pulley and crank systems, but all operated by sensors and actuators.  I know the Boeing 777 is fly by wire but also has manual backup controls

It will be very Interesting to see what was discovered. 

It could also be faulty information given to the pilots. I recall before the lion air crash, the pilots were saying the AOA gauge (angle of attack) was faulty.  If this happens, the plane would automatically try to correct itself because the computer is telling it (hey dummy, the plane is about to stall). So the plane will then try to trim the nose down so the aircraft will gain airspeed.  The autopilot could also automatically disconnect because the airplane is thinking it's about to stall, so it gives all control inputs to the pilot at that point.  (I'm not sure how the 737 works, but most aircraft are like that).  The problem with eronious information is the plane is thinking it's stalling, trims the nose down, automatically disengages the autopilot, and the pilots maybe caught off guard by the event that's taking place

Those are really my only thoughts, I've never flown a 737 and I'm not sure on the systems on that plane.  If I hear anything from some friends who do fly them, I'll let you know

I don't want to Monday morning quarterback the pilots, Boeing, etc. the engineers at Boeing are much smarter then I could ever dream to be.  I do think American pilots are the most knowledgeable, and best trained you can get in the world though.  (Not at all including myself in that statement)

Aren't you a private jet pilot? I recall you flew Dwayne Wade to Milwaukee a few weeks ago.

[jsglow]

Okay, this is weird.  I just did a search on Flightaware and there's Max-8s in the air.  Could this be a mislabeling thing?