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Author Topic: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!  (Read 7175 times)

mikekinsellaMVP

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #25 on: February 19, 2019, 11:06:52 AM »
Journalists....they’re so good with data

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwidxbayoMjgAhVSFzQIHR_1Aa4QzPwBegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bizjournals.com%2Fnewyork%2Fnews%2F2018%2F05%2F25%2Fnew-york-ranks-no-1-in-losing-residents-to-other.html&psig=AOvVaw0emecT6har3K0tLHulptT7&ust=1550681368767153

And what should be said about people who don't take the time to see if their source is more or less current than what they're refuting?  The first two lines of your article:

Quote
In 2015, New York had a population of 19.5 million. By only 2016 (the latest year available), it shrank to about 19.3 million, resulting in a net drop of 186,000 people.

It's like you're deliberately not trying anymore.

muwarrior69

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #26 on: February 19, 2019, 11:11:40 AM »
Young people and opportunities for some of the the southern states.   Where is the economic opportunity in WV?   In Wyoming?   In Alaska?      As far as leaving Illinois and New York, I wonder how many of those leaving are retirees who have had enough winters.    I always laughed at 'snowbirds'.   Until the polar vortex of 2014.     I retire in 4 years, my wife in 13.    But for the first time, we discuss whether we would rather spend a summer being way too hot in exchange for not having to shovel.    The virtue of having a single wide near the gulf coast for 3 months out of the year.    And all because her circulation is getting worse and the cold affects her more than it used to.    Aging.       
   So, extrapolating, how many of those leaving Illinois and New York are just tired of being cold and are choosing not shoveling?

I'm 72 and live in New Jersey. I happen to like winter and for the most part our weather is pretty moderate. Sandy was one of the worst hurricanes to hit the state which happens every 50 years or so. Our worst blizzard was back in '96. Tornados are rare, no forrest fires , mud slides, sink holes or earthquakes of any real consequence. For the most part New Jersey is not a bad place to live as we are within a few hours driving distance to DC or Boston and just a train ride to Philly or NYC, not to mention the Jersey Shore.

D'Lo Brown

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2019, 11:26:52 AM »
I'm not sure what your point here is. I'm not going to sign up for a website to read the full article you linked, but its headline seems to agree with the Census Bureau.
Sorry, you had bad data and can't spin this the way you want.
The real data just validates what I said earlier, there are numerous and complicated factors that go into population growth and decline. But as the data shows, we have blue states and red states. Warm climates and cold. East Coast and Midwest and Deep South and even off continent.
Surely frustating to those who wish to simplify something complex to make a political point.

If we stopped replying to him, he'd eventually go away. Banning isn't a workable solution for him as he has multiple accounts going and knows about VPNs.

I've heard that one should resolve to stop feeding trolls... I know it is framed as an intelligent-sounding argument backed by logic and numbers, but it just boils down to trolling... Plain and simple.

muwarrior69

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2019, 12:04:06 PM »
Well... Illinois does have the cheapest beer in the Country! So maybe folks will start moving back.

https://dailycaller.com/2019/02/19/illinois-cheapest-beer-alaska-most-expensive/

Jon

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2019, 12:28:44 PM »
Chicago. Home of "The Big One"


<a href="https://www.youtube.com/e/9Tw4iensEpE?s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/e/9Tw4iensEpE?s</a>
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 12:37:35 PM by Jon »

dgies9156

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #30 on: February 19, 2019, 12:54:08 PM »
Illinois likely will lose two seats in the House after the 2020 census because the country is growing and the state is shrinking. Illinois' seats will either end up in Florida or Texas, or maybe Brother MU's North Carolina.

The cost of living and especially the cost of government is a key factor in Illinois' population decline. Nobody in their right mind says, "I'm moving to Florida because of the corruption." It's because the cost of living in Illinois, because of government, is reaching the stratosphere. Folks see the spending plan of the current governor and legislature atop the pension problem and say, "oh my Lord!"

Many people who leave Illinois undoubtedly look at it and its $155 billion state public pension shortfall and ask, "how am I going to be asked to fix that?" This is occurring even through your own retirement is totally self-funded and your salary and benefits likely do not match that of government workers in Illinois.

One can live in Nashville, for example, and be a little warmer in the summer and winter (and have much nicer springs) and pay a fraction of the property tax one would pay in Illinois. And pay no income tax. And be in a dynamic, growing market. Ditto for Charlotte and Brother MU's hometown.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you watch what's growing in Illinois, it's commerce where the plug can be pulled on a dime. Technology, for example, doesn't manufacture in Illinois. Caterpillar and Boeing moved their headquarters to Deerfield and Chicago, respectively, but did not bring a single capital-intensive employee to the area.

Depending on what happens in the legislature, these jobs and opportunities can go "poof" as fast they materialized.

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #31 on: February 19, 2019, 01:15:33 PM »
And what should be said about people who don't take the time to see if their source is more or less current than what they're refuting?  The first two lines of your article:

It's like you're deliberately not trying anymore.

I went further down the story to this paragraph

“According to recent data, New York state tops the charts in terms of outmigration from the state, and is followed by Illinois, California, New Jersey and Connecticut. All five of these states have negative net migration rates.”

Article was written in 2018, I assume the journalist was citing “recent data” as the journalist said they were.  The journalist specifically said 2015 and 2016 in the beginning, but then said recent data.  Poorly written?  Or was it, in fact, recent data presumably from 2018 when the article was written?

I’m trying just fine, I went to the first source I found and that’s what the journalist provided.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Benny B

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #32 on: February 19, 2019, 01:32:24 PM »
And what should be said about people who don't take the time to see if their source is more or less current than what they're refuting?  The first two lines of your article:

It's like you're deliberately not trying anymore.

Pakuni was posting a chart on population declines.  Chicos is talking about outmigration.  Similar metrics, but different; for example, the latter ignores births and deaths, the former does not.

It may be apples to apples, but it's red delicious to honeycrisp.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2019, 01:42:01 PM »
Pakuni was posting a chart on population declines.  Chicos is talking about outmigration.  Similar metrics, but different; for example, the latter ignores births and deaths, the former does not.

It may be apples to apples, but it's red delicious to honeycrisp.

Excellent point.


Can’t wait for the reversal comments from a few....nevermind, won’t be happening.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

forgetful

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #34 on: February 19, 2019, 01:50:13 PM »
Excellent point.


Can’t wait for the reversal comments from a few....nevermind, won’t be happening.

You are still wrong though. Metrics on people moving do not list those states as the top 5.

Looking at outmigration and in-migration, one thing does stand out. The states with higher in-migration are popular retiree destinations. Indicating much of the movement is based on recent retirees.

Not A Serious Person

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #35 on: February 19, 2019, 02:01:13 PM »
You are still wrong though. Metrics on people moving do not list those states as the top 5.

Looking at outmigration and in-migration, one thing does stand out. The states with higher in-migration are popular retiree destinations. Indicating much of the movement is based on recent retirees.

Illinois should slap a pension tax on all Government retirees that live outside of Illinois (which is about 40%).

This is why Florida's finances are so much better than Illinois.  Illinois mails it money to Florida.
Western Progressives have one worldview, the correct one.

cheebs09

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #36 on: February 19, 2019, 02:05:52 PM »
Machado saw this thread.

mikekinsellaMVP

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #37 on: February 19, 2019, 02:22:47 PM »
Pakuni was posting a chart on population declines.  Chicos is talking about outmigration.  Similar metrics, but different; for example, the latter ignores births and deaths, the former does not.

It may be apples to apples, but it's red delicious to honeycrisp.

D'oh!

From Census data, 2018 top five domestic migration losers by total are New York, California, Illinois, New Jersey, And Louisiana.  Per capita, it's Alaska, New York, Illinois, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

This is why I generally stick to lurking.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 02:30:29 PM by mikekinsellaMVP »

Pakuni

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #38 on: February 19, 2019, 02:30:08 PM »
D'oh!

From Census data, 2018 top five domestic migration losers by total are New York, Illinois, California, Louisiana, and Kansas.  Per capita, it's Alaska, New York, Illinois, Hawaii, and Wyoming.

This is why I generally stick to lurking.

Fair point, but the general point is valid. You have states with varying locations, climates and politics at the top of the list, so Cheeks' efforts to say "Ha, it's cause of the libs" remains invalid.

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #39 on: February 19, 2019, 02:30:59 PM »
You are still wrong though. Metrics on people moving do not list those states as the top 5.

Looking at outmigration and in-migration, one thing does stand out. The states with higher in-migration are popular retiree destinations. Indicating much of the movement is based on recent retirees.

According to that article I posted they do....out migration states.  The question remains how recent the data is, but when a 2018 article is written in a few days before June and the journalist says recent data...well I assume it is recent data.

And the same article says gainers are Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.  They also have a few things in common.

It’s ok to just say what they are.  Lower taxes, lower cost of living, better weather. 
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

mu_hilltopper

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #40 on: February 19, 2019, 02:31:21 PM »
« Last Edit: February 19, 2019, 02:33:43 PM by mu_hilltopper »

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #41 on: February 19, 2019, 02:33:17 PM »
Fair point, but the general point is valid. You have states with varying locations, climates and politics at the top of the list, so Cheeks' efforts to say "Ha, it's cause of the libs" remains invalid.

I'm sorry, please show me where I said this? I didn't.  This just in, there are some states that are blue and don't have oppressive taxes, terrible pensions, etc.  The ones where people are bailing, do.  Just as there are some red states that have high taxes and poor policy choices.  I didn't say anything broad based as your QUOTES imply.  I specifically isolated THOSE STATES ONLY!
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #42 on: February 19, 2019, 02:38:14 PM »


People move around for all sorts of reasons.   But most people stay exactly where they were born, and moving is trending down.

  Most "movers" are in their 20s, and in their 60s, and they have a variety of reasons, jobs, weather, and family are top 3.  And Arby's density.  Top 4.

Agreed, and family is definitely a high reason. That is one reason we are bailing before our kids start having kids, so we don't get sucked into that emotional decision.  In our journey the last few years that was a common theme of people that had regrets of wishing they had moved, but didn't and now feel trapped to some extent. They are very happy that their kids and grand kids are there, but their own lives put on hold again just when they had a chance to do something while they still are healthy and able.  As I told my wife, you can always fly to see the kids, or have them come to us.  You want to spend 2 months there, have at it.  We will see them plenty, but I don't want to get locked into this state until I drop dead because of that decision.  If anything, it will encourage the kids to know this country has a lot to offer outside of their little bubble.  Glad one of them left and is already seeing that.  Will see what the youngest decides.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Pakuni

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #43 on: February 19, 2019, 02:40:48 PM »
I'm sorry, please show me where I said this? I didn't.

We've seen this movie before, Cheeks

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #44 on: February 19, 2019, 02:43:14 PM »
We've seen this movie before, Cheeks

Yup, you make something up, no backup and then when called out on it, you have no defensible response.  Agreed, we have seen this before.
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire

Benny B

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #45 on: February 19, 2019, 02:49:11 PM »
Uh oh.... here comes the whole imply vs. infer contest.

IIRC, imply leads the overall series against infer 489 to 473.  So infer has got to be due.
Wow, I'm very concerned for Benny.  Being able to mimic Myron Medcalf's writing so closely implies an oncoming case of dementia.

Jockey

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #46 on: February 19, 2019, 02:52:12 PM »
If we stopped replying to him, he'd eventually go away. Banning isn't a workable solution for him as he has multiple accounts going and knows about VPNs.

I've heard that one should resolve to stop feeding trolls... I know it is framed as an intelligent-sounding argument backed by logic and numbers, but it just boils down to trolling... Plain and simple.

+100,000,000,000!

Let's all try it.

forgetful

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #47 on: February 19, 2019, 02:53:55 PM »
According to that article I posted they do....out migration states.  The question remains how recent the data is, but when a 2018 article is written in a few days before June and the journalist says recent data...well I assume it is recent data.

And the same article says gainers are Florida, Texas, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.  They also have a few things in common.

It’s ok to just say what they are.  Lower taxes, lower cost of living, better weather.

Did you know that most things on the internet are not actually fact, and determining the validity of a topic requires more than just finding an internet site that agrees with you?

Jockey

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #48 on: February 19, 2019, 02:55:53 PM »
+100,000,000,000!

Let's all try it.

And the same for Heisy.

Goes to get data from Fox News for the sole reason of starting an argument.

Anyone dumb enough to go there should be prohibited from an adult discussion.

Cheeks

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Re: Congrats to Chicago and Illinois!
« Reply #49 on: February 19, 2019, 03:38:20 PM »
And the same for Heisy.

Goes to get data from Fox News for the sole reason of starting an argument.

Anyone dumb enough to go there should be prohibited from an adult discussion.

LOL.  Yes, because the other networks are always right....how's their stories on Empire actor of late when they were all in not alledging, but convicting.  Yup, very sound response Brandx, it's always the other side that has the problem.  Very sound.  LOL 
"I hate everything about this job except the games, Everything. I don't even get affected anymore by the winning, by the ratings, those things. The trouble is, it will sound like an excuse because we've never won the national championship, but winning just isn't all that important to me.” Al McGuire