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Author Topic: Net Ranking  (Read 6568 times)

HowardsWorld

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #50 on: February 11, 2019, 07:28:12 AM »
Kenpom had Indiana beating OSU today 67-65. This is a perfect example...I would ask why?? Ohio State is a better team. IDC where Indiana is playing them. Is OSU much better?? Probably not, but still better and for me, if it's close like that I will always go wit hthe better team.  Tomorrow night he has TCU beating Kansas 75-74 @ TCU. Kansas wins that game..period. Anyone think Kansas isn't better then TCU even with all their issues right now?? That's two examples of why I have issues with "predictive" models.

You mean that TCU team that just annialted Iowa state at their home court? That Iowa state team that came out as the # 13 overall in the top 4 seed selection?  I mean no chance TCU could ever win this game tonight.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #51 on: February 11, 2019, 07:52:40 AM »
Maybe..but not necessarily because of the anomolies i spoke of..what if the tean that lost by 40 was down 3 starters for whatever reason and had to play walk ons significant minutes? As I said there are so many things that can affect an outcome..I just hate "rewarding" a team for only losing by 1 as opposed to 40..because thats basically saying "good job you tried your best". But that kind of fits the world we live in now, whereas we reward teams/individuals for their great effort(a participation trophy/ribbon) even if they lost. Different world then I grew up in..i know that much..at the end of the day..a loss is a loss(or should be) and an ugly win should always be worth more than a "pretty" loss.

Maybe? Wouldn't it just be easier (and more accurate) to say that it is probable that if Team A loses to Duke by 1 and Team B loses to Duke by 40 that Team A is the better team? Now it is just one game, so that is why systems take all the games into account, so if the team that lost by 40 was an anomaly game that will only be one data point in a season of 30-40 data points. Also, aren't you the guy who says that injuries are excuses and teams should still win in spite of them?

As to the bolded, an ugly win is always worth more than a pretty loss. There is never a situation where it is better to lose than it is to win a game.  These systems just reward "pretty" wins more than "ugly" wins and punish "ugly" losses more than "pretty" losses.
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And the wisdom to know the difference.

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MU82

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #52 on: February 11, 2019, 10:12:17 AM »
Maybe? Wouldn't it just be easier (and more accurate) to say that it is probable that if Team A loses to Duke by 1 and Team B loses to Duke by 40 that Team A is the better team? Now it is just one game, so that is why systems take all the games into account, so if the team that lost by 40 was an anomaly game that will only be one data point in a season of 30-40 data points. Also, aren't you the guy who says that injuries are excuses and teams should still win in spite of them?

As to the bolded, an ugly win is always worth more than a pretty loss. There is never a situation where it is better to lose than it is to win a game.  These systems just reward "pretty" wins more than "ugly" wins and punish "ugly" losses more than "pretty" losses.

Careful, TAMU, this is dangerously logical.
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Cheeks

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #53 on: February 11, 2019, 10:08:34 PM »
Kenpom had Indiana beating OSU today 67-65. This is a perfect example...I would ask why?? Ohio State is a better team. IDC where Indiana is playing them. Is OSU much better?? Probably not, but still better and for me, if it's close like that I will always go wit hthe better team.  Tomorrow night he has TCU beating Kansas 75-74 @ TCU. Kansas wins that game..period. Anyone think Kansas isn't better then TCU even with all their issues right now?? That's two examples of why I have issues with "predictive" models.

Predictive model was damn close.  Said TCU by 1.  Game just went to OT, in which case anything can happen, but predictive model was essentially off by 1 point.

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muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #54 on: February 11, 2019, 10:28:03 PM »
So...someone was emphatic that KU would beat TCU even though the god Pomeroy(that everyone here worships) said TCU would win. Hmmm...maybe Guru is a little smarter than most of you think. Folks, watch enough basketball, and if you go with the better team, I can assure you you will be right much more than you will be wrong. That one was like taking candy from a baby...as an added bonus, i give you the next flaw pomeroy has..UW beating MSU. Michigan State wins that game. Period. You're welcome.  :)
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #55 on: February 11, 2019, 10:30:13 PM »
Predictive model was damn close.  Said TCU by 1.  Game just went to OT, in which case anything can happen, but predictive model was essentially off by 1 point.

Close enough isn't good enough...I said emphatically without a doubt KU would win..soooo...yup. It's easy...go with them ore talented team, and you will always be right more often then you are wrong. Not sure why any of you fall all over Pomeroy?? His "model" doesn't account for the eyeball test, which as I said, I trust my eyes.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

fjm

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #56 on: February 11, 2019, 10:41:28 PM »
Close enough isn't good enough...I said emphatically without a doubt KU would win..soooo...yup. It's easy...go with them ore talented team, and you will always be right more often then you are wrong. Not sure why any of you fall all over Pomeroy?? His "model" doesn't account for the eyeball test, which as I said, I trust my eyes.

I would take pomeroy over your eye test about 100% of the time if I was betting. Just saying.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #57 on: February 11, 2019, 10:51:44 PM »
I would take pomeroy over your eye test about 100% of the time if I was betting. Just saying.

That's your prerogative..I'm trying to point out to alot of you that worship Pomeroy..his model isnt the be all end all. I can predict or use #'s for almost anything..but you can make #'s say anything you want them to say.

Earlier this year in the Georgetown game thread everyone figured mu was doomed because Markus was out.. I emphatically stated that this was a game they should still win because they were simply still more talented than Georgetown. And that Sam would take the game over. Well, how'd that end up? People seem to think #'s and model's outweigh talent. They don't and never will. If you are able to judge talent(which I have a unique ability to do), then you will be further ahead of any predictive model there is.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

Cheeks

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #58 on: February 11, 2019, 11:08:08 PM »
So...someone was emphatic that KU would beat TCU even though the god Pomeroy(that everyone here worships) said TCU would win. Hmmm...maybe Guru is a little smarter than most of you think. Folks, watch enough basketball, and if you go with the better team, I can assure you you will be right much more than you will be wrong. That one was like taking candy from a baby...as an added bonus, i give you the next flaw pomeroy has..UW beating MSU. Michigan State wins that game. Period. You're welcome.  :)

Your eye test had them needing OT to win a game you said they would win....period?

Uhm, ok. 
"The tournament is a crapshoot. It shouldn't be everything. It's such a shallow thing to pin everything on."
Gonzaga Head Coach Mark Few

LoudMouth

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #59 on: February 11, 2019, 11:11:13 PM »
Weren’t you the one that said St Johns stinks. What happened to your eye test when we lost to them twice?
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TAMU Eagle

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #60 on: February 11, 2019, 11:21:17 PM »
So let me get this straight. The model predicted that at the end of 40 minutes, the margin of victory would be 1. At the end of the game it was 0. So it was off by 1. And that's an example of why the model doesn't work?

That's your prerogative..I'm trying to point out to alot of you that worship Pomeroy..his model isnt the be all end all. I can predict or use #'s for almost anything..but you can make #'s say anything you want them to say.

No one has said KenPom is the end all, be all. It is one system with flaws. And no you can't make #s say anything you want to. KenPom has published his methodology for all to see. He doesn't manipulate the numbers to say certain things. The numbers cannot lie, they can only tell you what they are programmed to tell you. You just have to be able to understand what they are telling you.

People seem to think #'s and model's outweigh talent. They don't and never will. 

Numbers don't outweigh talent. Talent is measured by numbers.

If you are able to judge talent(which I have a unique ability to do), then you will be further ahead of any predictive model there is.

Prove it. Make your own predictions and compare them to other predictive models. If your unique ability is as good as you say it is, you will make a lot of money. I'd guess that a lot of MLB managers thought the same thing before all that moneyball nonsense.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #61 on: February 11, 2019, 11:23:28 PM »
Weren’t you the one that said St Johns stinks. What happened to your eye test when we lost to them twice?

They do stink and why those losses still piss me off..look.. even the most talented teams don't win every single time but I can tell you this much if you're able to judge talent and you always assume regardless of anything else that the more talented team will win you will be way ahead of any predictive model there is out there.. that's why I don't like them they don't factor in Talent.

An easy way to look at this is like this.. and it really couldn't be any easier and should be the basis for why people shouldn't fall all over these predictive models and think they're the be-all end-all..but..the general consensus is Duke is the favorite to win it all..and thats NOT because some #'s say they should..it's simply because they are the most talented team in the country..period. Talent trumps everything else..period. To think otherwise is foolish and naive
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #62 on: February 11, 2019, 11:28:45 PM »
So let me get this straight. The model predicted that at the end of 40 minutes, the margin of victory would be 1. ample of why the model doesn't work?[/b]

His model said TCU would win..his model was wrong. I said Kansas would win(which btw many ppl scoffed at because of how bad Kansas was on the road..yadda yadda yadda). Talent rises to the top. Kansas is a more talented team than TCU..I will take the more talented team every time regardless of where its played

No one has said KenPom is the end all, be all. It is one system with flaws. And no you can't make #s say anything you want to. KenPom has published his methodology for all to see. He doesn't manipulate the numbers to say certain things. The numbers cannot lie, they can only tell you what they are programmed to tell you. You just have to be able to understand what they are telling you.

Numbers don't outweigh talent. Talent is measured by numbers.

Prove it. Make your own predictions and compare them to other predictive models. If your unique ability is as good as you say it is, you will make a lot of money. I'd guess that a lot of MLB managers thought the same thing before all that moneyball nonsense.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #63 on: February 11, 2019, 11:30:38 PM »
the general consensus is Duke is the favorite to win it all..and thats NOT because some #'s say they should..it's simply because they are the most talented team in the country..period. Talent trumps everything else..period. To think otherwise is foolish and naive

And the numbers say the should because they are the most talented team in the country. These numbers that you keep going on about are just one way of measuring talent.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

TAMU Eagle

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #64 on: February 11, 2019, 11:34:55 PM »
His model said TCU would win..his model was wrong.

Sigh. No it didn't. The model said TCU had a 51% of winning. Which is basically a coin flip. KenPom doesn't pick winners of games, it gives probabilities on game.
God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
The courage to change the things I can,
And the wisdom to know the difference.

~Prayer of the Scooper

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #65 on: February 11, 2019, 11:35:53 PM »
What mystifies me more than anything is almost no one(I did) even thought this MU team would be this good.. I honestly think that's because people have a hard time judging Talent that's not a knock on anyone it's definitely a unique skill I saw how talented this team was..so it doesnt surprise me at all they are a top 10 team. It took almost the entire fanbase..over half a season to finally see it..and a lot still don't believe it. I told many people privately long before the season started that they were going to be talented enough to be a top-10 team at some point..lo and behold..here we are.

So while it's fun and trendy for all of you to be excited because this team is "exceeding" expectations.. that's simply because you didn't realize how talented they were before the season started so for me I'm not the least bit surprised this is where I thought they would be at some point this year.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #66 on: February 11, 2019, 11:39:16 PM »
Your eye test had them needing OT to win a game you said they would win....period?

Uhm, ok.

Who won the game? I emphatically said KU would win the game..and they did. Yet you want to credit Pomeroy because his predictive model was one point off whoop-dee-doo he didn't pick the right team to win and that's what matters.

Like last week Creighton took Nova to overtime.. did anyone honestly believe that  Nova wasn't going to win that game of course they were going to they are better than Creighton.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #67 on: February 11, 2019, 11:47:11 PM »
Sigh. No it didn't. The model said TCU had a 51% of winning. Which is basically a coin flip. KenPom doesn't pick winners of games, it gives probabilities on game.

K whatever..his MODEL gave TCU a better chance of winning that game than Kansas..his model was WRONG. There should never be a model that gives the Lesser talented team regardless of venue a better chance of winning then the more talented team ever that's what I'm saying. Numbers don't judge talent..case in point..Houston..there #'s are all pretty good..now maybe some of you are guillable enough to believe that "well the #'s say they are the 10th most talented team in the country..so they must be". All you have to do is watch them play and you will see that yes they are a good basketball team are they as talented as their numbers make them out to be hell no!

“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

LoudMouth

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #68 on: February 11, 2019, 11:47:52 PM »
Who won the game? I emphatically said KU would win the game..and they did. Yet you want to credit Pomeroy because his predictive model was one point off whoop-dee-doo he didn't pick the right team to win and that's what matters.

Like last week Creighton took Nova to overtime.. did anyone honestly believe that  Nova wasn't going to win that game of course they were going to they are better than Creighton.

You must be very very rich from betting all of these games. KenPom numbers often come very close, if not identical to Vegas numbers. What do you do with all of your winnings? Only assuming you bet the farm on every game you know is a lock like tonight
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JakeBarnes

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #69 on: February 11, 2019, 11:52:00 PM »
Maybe? Wouldn't it just be easier (and more accurate) to say that it is probable that if Team A loses to Duke by 1 and Team B loses to Duke by 40 that Team A is the better team? Now it is just one game, so that is why systems take all the games into account, so if the team that lost by 40 was an anomaly game that will only be one data point in a season of 30-40 data points. Also, aren't you the guy who says that injuries are excuses and teams should still win in spite of them?

As to the bolded, an ugly win is always worth more than a pretty loss. There is never a situation where it is better to lose than it is to win a game.  These systems just reward "pretty" wins more than "ugly" wins and punish "ugly" losses more than "pretty" losses.

This is far too cohesive for this board. No mentions of Crean, ND sucking, 5 year plans, nor any personal attacks. If anything this belongs in "NM" for being off-topic.
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LoudMouth

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #70 on: February 11, 2019, 11:53:26 PM »
K whatever..his MODEL gave TCU a better chance of winning that game than Kansas..his model was WRONG. There should never be a model that gives the Lesser talented team regardless of venue a better chance of winning then the more talented team ever that's what I'm saying. Numbers don't judge talent..case in point..Houston..there #'s are all pretty good..now maybe some of you are guillable enough to believe that "well the #'s say they are the 10th most talented team in the country..so they must be". All you have to do is watch them play and you will see that yes they are a good basketball team are they as talented as their numbers make them out to be hell no!

Who do you think is more talented, Marquette or Villanova?

If Villanova then what happened on Saturday?

If Marquette then I am assuming you will be taking a loan out from the bank to bet on us when we play in Philly since location doesn’t matter.  Please confirm. You will get a great return as we will undoubtably be underdogs
Down 5 with 1 second left, doable

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #71 on: February 12, 2019, 12:07:40 AM »
And the numbers say the should because they are the most talented team in the country. These numbers that you keep going on about are just one way of measuring talent.

I think you are confusing being talented..and simply being a good TEAM. His model as well as others may tell you who the best teams are..but NOT necessarily who the most TALENTED teams are..there's a distinct difference. You can be a really good team and be efficient(which is what most of these #'s are based on) but that does NOT necessarily make you a TALENTED team. You just have a system and 5 players that are good enough to overcome their talent shortcomings, to play really well as a team.

We hear it all the time..teams playing above their talent level etc. You can be really talented..and not be a great team because of many different reasons.. conversely you can also be a really good team and not be particularly talented. Models tell us who the good teams are..they do NOT tell us who the most talented teams are necessarily.

Here's a great example..Virginia..they are typically really good because of the system they run..not because they have incredibly talented players. It works for them. However as we see..once you get into the tournament..that only takes you so far..last year notwithstanding..they have typically lost sooner than a lot thought they would..simply because they run into a team that has more talent then they do. At the end of the day.. if my five players have more Talent than your five players do a vast majority of the time if you say roll the ball out and go play I will beat you far more than I will lose to you.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

muguru

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #72 on: February 12, 2019, 12:13:55 AM »
Who do you think is more talented, Marquette or Villanova?

If Villanova then what happened on Saturday?

If Marquette then I am assuming you will be taking a loan out from the bank to bet on us when we play in Philly since location doesn’t matter.  Please confirm. You will get a great return as we will undoubtably be underdogs

MU is more talented..but I dont bet on games..its just not my thing..although i will tell you..i did bet on one two years ago..because it was simply the easiest money i(or anyone) could have ever made. That was last year's Marquette Wisconsin game for whatever reason the betting sites had Wisconsin as a fairly handy favorite I took Marquette and the money line at + 225. I had absolutely ZERO doubt I was going to win that one. Honestly to this day i still feel a little guilty..like i stole $$..but then if they are going to make it that easy..im not going to say no either.
“Being realistic is the most common path to mediocrity.” Will Smith

We live in a society that rewards mediocrity , I detest mediocrity - David Goggi

I want this quote to serve as a reminder to the vast majority of scoop posters in regards to the MU BB program.

brewcity77

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #73 on: February 12, 2019, 04:49:48 AM »
Who won the game? I emphatically said KU would win the game..and they did.

They certainly didn't win emphatically. When you make a case as strongly as you did and the game is decided in overtime, you come out looking really bad. Like it or not, Pomeroy's model was far more accurate than your own prediction.

lawdog77

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Re: Net Ranking
« Reply #74 on: February 12, 2019, 06:16:08 AM »