Does St. John’s only play well against Marquette?

[cheese ball chaser]

St. John's is currently sitting at 5-5 in conference, 47 KenPom, 39 NET and 48 in T-rank. I haven't watched much St. John's basketball this year but it seems like they play REALLY well against us less so against other teams.

T-Rank provides a game-by-game rating called G-Score (http://adamcwisports.blogspot.com/2015/11/introducing-g-score.html). For those not familiar, it goes from 0 (bad) to 100 (perfect) and essentially indicates how well a team played in a given game given offensive and defensive efficiencies.

Looking at St. John's G-Score trend, they have played 8 games with a G-Score over 90: http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=St.+John%27s. 3 of those games are against bad/average opponents: Loyola MD (141 KenPom), Rutgers (95 KenPom) and St. Francis (NY) (245 KenPom), and they won all three.

• The remaining 5 are against Marquette (W,W), Creighton (W,W) and Nova (L).
• Excluding the bad/average opponents, their two best games of the season are at home against Marquette (98 G-score) and @ Creighton (98 G-score)
• Their next best two games are @ Marquette (96 G-score) and at home against Creighton (94 G-score)

Obviously there's some noise here and G-score isn't a perfect metric, but we can see that St. John's is also capable of playing well against other opponents given the sweep of Creighton and playing well @ Nova (even though they lost).

Marquette played their worst game of the season at Indiana (19 G-Score) but their next two worse losses are against St. John's. Both are their only other 2 sub-60 G-score losses. St. John's is such a strange team. How do you lose to DePaul and home and sweep MU and Creighton? 

[fjm]

Hausers went 3-14 from 3.

Make one more, and we win.

3-14.

Howard went 1-9 from two point range.

Make one more and we win.

losses Happen. Sadly though SJU has our number. But I don't see us having a ton of 1-9 from 2 for Howard it many more 21% shooting from 3 combined from the Hauser brothers.

[BrewCity83]

Matchups.  Their tall/long, quick guards and wings cause matchup headaches for MU (and apparently Creighton).  It's why matchups in the NCAA tourney are more important than seeds.

[JakeBarnes]

Hausers went 3-14 from 3.

Make one more, and we win.

3-14.

Howard went 1-9 from two point range.

Make one more and we win.

losses Happen. Sadly though SJU has our number. But I don't see us having a ton of 1-9 from 2 for Howard it many more 21% shooting from 3 combined from the Hauser brothers.

Most of those Hauser shots wede uncontested too. Sometimes it just doesn't drop

[GooooMarquette]

Most of those Hauser shots wede uncontested too. Sometimes it just doesn't drop

Yep. We missed a ton of wide open looks. It wasn't about SJU playing so well - it was a great shooting team having a really off night. It happens.

[muguru]

Matchups.  Their tall/long, quick guards and wings cause matchup headaches for MU (and apparently Creighton).  It's why matchups in the NCAA tourney are more important than seeds.

I somewhat agree with this...however, since SJU is ONLY 5-5 in the BE, with 4 of those wins coming vs MU and Creighton..The fact that they have tall/long, quick guards and wings", hasn't bothered the other teams...which one could IMPLY that that means they also have tall/long, quick wings etc to match up with SJU there. However, if that is the case...MU hasn't had a problem against anyone else's long/tall quick wings(and presumably they have the long/tall quick wings to match SJU). It's really weird. I honestly think that some of it with MU is mental...SJU is in their heads now.

[Johnny B]

Of course Duke smokes those clowns by 30. I get its Duke but still. Where were st johns "tall quick guys"

[Golden Avalanche]

Of course Duke smokes those clowns by 30. I get its Duke but still. Where were st johns "tall quick guys"

They were dealing with taller and quicker Blue Devils.

[GooooMarquette]

Of course Duke smokes those clowns by 30. I get its Duke but still. Where were st johns "tall quick guys"

Duke was lucky - they caught SJU looking ahead to us.

[Jockey]

SJU is more athletic at all 5 positions - hence MU has to hit a decent percentage on 3-pointers to win.

They will beat us when we don't shoot well.

[bilsu]

My belief is that Ponds knows he is better and Howard when he wants to be.
He comes in with a chip on his shoulder, because Howard gets so much press.
The last three matchups he has out played Howard.

Same thing worries me about Villanova. They may be tired about hearing announcers say MU is the better team. They are going to be very motivated tomorrow.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Everyone likes to focus on offense and I guess thats fine.  We also had one of our worst defensive halfs of the entite season in the first half.  We came out soft and got buried by a good team.  Toughened up in the second half and out pkayed them, unfirtunately the hole was too deep.  Offense fluctuates, defense shouldnt.  I said it before we played 2017 defense in the first half

[jesmu84]

My belief is that Ponds knows he is better and Howard when he wants to be.
He comes in with a chip on his shoulder, because Howard gets so much press.
The last three matchups he has out played Howard.

Same thing worries me about Villanova. They may be tired about hearing announcers say MU is the better team. They are going to be very motivated tomorrow.

I haven't heard anyone say this

[Johnny B]

Literally every single game there are people saying the opponent has a chip on their shoulder to beat a top ten team. It's a must win for the opponent so there gonna play harder. The teams tired of hearing about Marquette so they will be focused and motivated. Oh they just lost so now there gonna be extra tough against marquette. Literally every game. Does it ever play in our favor jesus.. how about Marquette just lost so now they will have more motivation to beat nova so it will be harder for nova? Not that I really buy this kind of crap anyways. Tired of hearing this stuff

[4everwarriors]

MU should bee da teem comin' out tomarra reddy ta kick major ass, hey?

[Billy Hoyle]

I somewhat agree with this...however, since SJU is ONLY 5-5 in the BE, with 4 of those wins coming vs MU and Creighton..The fact that they have tall/long, quick guards and wings", hasn't bothered the other teams...which one could IMPLY that that means they also have tall/long, quick wings etc to match up with SJU there. However, if that is the case...MU hasn't had a problem against anyone else's long/tall quick wings(and presumably they have the long/tall quick wings to match SJU). It's really weird. I honestly think that some of it with MU is mental...SJU is in their heads now.

"only" 5-5, but one of those losses was due to an egregious officiating error that the conference admitted to (Seton Hall) and one without Ponds.  They also played pretty damn well at G-town. Maybe they're just a pretty good team.

[cheese ball chaser]

"only" 5-5, but one of those losses was due to an egregious officiating error that the conference admitted to (Seton Hall) and one without Ponds.  They also played pretty damn well at G-town. Maybe they're just a pretty good team.

I agree with this. Everybody likes to make fun of Mullin but I've always felt they've been pretty solid (despite the really shitty non-con)

[burger]

We need to go small vs. St. John's at least at some point.....

Hauser....Hauser.....Bailey......Howard.....Anim.....

Let them try match us at the 5.....

We can cover the 5 at the 3 point line.....

First off the bench is Chartonney.......

This is where we miss Cain and Elliott.....

[D'Lo Brown]

Prior to this game, we were 6-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points. We've had good luck in close games. Eventually, we were going to lose one of them.

SJU is a really good team. Shamorie Ponds is one of the 20 or so best players in college basketball. SJU can beat anyone. I think this conversation only exists under the assumption that we are way better than them. Their numerical ratings make them look worse than they are because they played a bad OOC schedule and the Big East is sort of down this year. They are a dangerous team.

This most recent game against them was pretty close to a coin flip going in, and it came down to a single point. We're not going to win every game like that... We have had our fair share of incredible fortune thus far.

[muguru]

Prior to this game, we were 6-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer points. We've had good luck in close games. Eventually, we were going to lose one of them.

SJU is a really good team. Shamorie Ponds is one of the 20 or so best players in college basketball. SJU can beat anyone. I think this conversation only exists under the assumption that we are way better than them. Their numerical ratings make them look worse than they are because they played a bad OOC schedule and the Big East is sort of down this year. They are a dangerous team.

This most recent game against them was pretty close to a coin flip going in, and it came down to a single point. We're not going to win every game like that... We have had our fair share of incredible fortune thus far.

How good are they...really?? This is the same SJU team that lost AT home to DePaul...stop and think about that for a minute..Yes it was without Ponds, but if they were THAT good, that is still a game they should have won(It was DePaul!). I mean...MU won AT Georgetown without Markus, right??

As far as the close games..You are right, so how about actually stepping on a teams throat early and taking all the wind out of their sails, instead of constantly starting slow like this MU team has done?? ...That's why they fond themselves in all these close games.

[D'Lo Brown]

How good are they...really?? This is the same SJU team that lost AT home to DePaul...stop and think about that for a minute..Yes it was without Ponds, but if they were THAT good, that is still a game they should have won(It was DePaul!). I mean...MU won AT Georgetown without Markus, right??

As far as the close games..You are right, so how about actually stepping on a teams throat early and taking all the wind out of their sails, instead of constantly starting slow like this MU team has done?? ...That's why they fond themselves in all these close games.

Most people can see the logical fallacy in making generalizations based on the extremes. You answered your own question with this post.

[bilsu]

I haven't heard anyone say this

I watch most of the Big East games on TV. When they discuss the conference standings at least one of the commentators says he thinks MU is better than Villanova.

[Johnny B]

I watch most of the Big East games on TV. When they discuss the conference standings at least one of the commentators says he thinks MU is better than Villanova.

Does that have an impact on the outcome of the game somehow. Please ..

[Norm]

My belief is that Ponds knows he is better and Howard when he wants to be.
He comes in with a chip on his shoulder, because Howard gets so much press.
The last three matchups he has out played Howard.

Same thing worries me about Villanova. They may be tired about hearing announcers say MU is the better team. They are going to be very motivated tomorrow.

Ponds has scored 98 points against MU in the last 3 games we've played them. He has 149 in all 6 games he's played us. The guy is a legit MU killer.

[NickelDimer]

Embarrassing

Embarrassing is this psycho tirade you're on. Man someone is in your head baaaaad