[Cracked Sidewalks] Attacking the Poll Attacker

[brewcity77]

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/12/attacking-poll-attacker.html

When Gary Parrish of CBS Sports put Marquette at 26 in his most recent Top 25 And 1 column, my first thought was "yeah, that's wrong." After listening to his comments on the CBS Sports Eye on College Basketball podcast, I decided I needed to explain why. First of all, I do generally really enjoy Parrish's work. I listen to the pod all year long, I read both the Top 25 And 1 & Poll Attacks, & follow him on Twitter. I think Parrish does a good job & is entertaining to follow on various platforms.

But in the most recent CBS Sports Eye on College Basketball podcast, Parrish defended his placement of Marquette using what could only be described as pretzel logic. So in the spirit of Poll Attacks, I decided to break down his defense. Here's the bulk of what Parrish had to say:

"This is the most common thing I hear from Marquette fans: How can you have us so low when we've got three top-15 wins? No you don't. You have one, over Wisconsin, at home, in overtime. You beat Kansas State when they were in the top-15 of the AP poll but they're unranked now, 28th at Kenpom. You beat Buffalo when they were in the top-15 of the AP poll but they're 21st now & 31st at Kenpom. My point being, you've got to stop it. You can't keep claiming you've got three top-15 wins...if you want to say I've got Marquette too low & give some reasons why you think I do, that's fine...They're 30th at Kenpom. It's not like they're 11th at Kenpom & I've got them 25th or 26th or whatever...In other words, think of it this way, on Selection Sunday, the Committee is going to base everything off of where teams are on Selection Sunday. You beat somebody in November or December when that school was ranked in the top-15, now they're no longer in the top-40, it won't register like a top-15 win."

Parrish is right about top-15 wins, but he's wrong about resume quality, which is what I talked about when I made my own comments on Twitter. In the Indiana capsule at #25, Parrish talks about how the Hoosiers have 5 top-50 wins at Kenpom. Let's use that as a guide. Let's look at top-50 wins both in terms of quantity & quality, & all losses. This image will be our guide. The darker green the win, the better it is. The darker red the loss, the worse it is. If a loss is listed in black, it means it's a sub-50 loss, so really bad.

Also, the defense of "look at their Pomeroy ranking", which Parrish used above when he referenced Marquette being ranked 30th at Kenpom, is not a valid defense when you have Kenpom #14 Nebraska at 24 & #44 Kenpom Arizona State 8 spots higher at 16. Also, head-to-head will not be a tiebreaker. It is effectively using the transitive property of basketball. Because not everyone plays each other, we simply have to compare resumes using ranks. So when comparing Wisconsin & Marquette, it's a loss at #30 and a win against #12.

Here's the spreadsheet showing top-50 wins and all losses:

So here we go. Marquette will only be used as a reference point. Let's compare resumes by breaking resumes into three categories.

Clearly Inferior to Marquette (14)

24. Nebraska: They have great computer numbers, but Marquette has 3 wins better than the Huskers' best win & they have a glaring loss to Minnesota.
23. Cincinnati: Zero top-50 wins. Their loss column looks good, but how about actually beating somebody, anybody, before you get ahead of a Marquette team with 4 wins in the top-40?
21. Houston: Undefeated is great, but they haven't beat a single team as good as Marquette's fourth-best win. I'll take 4-2 against the top-40 over 0-0 every single day.
19. North Carolina: The win over Gonzaga is great, but they've done nothing else of consequence. They've only played 4 top-50 games & lost 3 of them. One game does not a resume make.
18. Kentucky: If North Carolina doesn't quality, the Wildcats' case is even weaker. Win over UNC, sure, but only 2 top-50 games & a loss outside the top-50 should disqualify them from the rankings altogether. They're only ranked because Parrish had them #1 preseason. That's it.
17. Mississippi State: 3 top-50 wins to Marquette's 4, each win they have is of lesser quality, & a worse loss than any that Marquette has taken.
16. Arizona State: Their two best wins are better than Marquette's two best, but MU wins in terms of quantity & that loss at Vanderbilt is really glaring. It's amazing that everyone was ready to drop ASU like a bad habit after Vandy, then suddenly everyone forgets that when they beat Kansas. That was a really bad loss to take. It is the single worst loss of any team in the Top 25 And 1.
15. Auburn: No team in the nation right now says "confirmation bias" like Auburn. Zero top-50 wins. Zero. Sure, their losses are good losses, but like Cincinnati, beat somebody, anybody, please.
14. NC State: What has NC State done to deserve this spot? Beat Auburn, who doesn't belong here in the first place. Ignoring that fact, NC State has padded their resume with cupcakes & has half Marquette's top-50 wins & of lesser quality.
12. Ohio State: Only 2 top-50 wins, wins are of inferior quality, & a loss worse than any loss Marquette has suffered.
11. Virginia Tech: They are being propped up by a win over Purdue that loses luster by the minute, have a worse loss than any Marquette has, & nothing else of substance. Another case of confirmation bias with zero substance to back it up.
9. Texas Tech: We already deconstructed Nebraska, which is the only top-50 win on TTU's resume. Are they really in the top-10 because of 1 decent win & 9 against sub-90 Kenpom opponents? Or is it because they played Duke tough for 35 minutes? Sorry, but if results matter, this ranking is a joke.I think Chris Beard is a great coach, but their eFG% is propped up against the #337 ranked schedule in the country. If TTU belongs here, why isn't St. John's right next to them?
8. Michigan State: I know, it seems like sacrilege to mention Sparty. The computers love them. But they don't own a single top-25 win. Their worst loss is worse than Marquette's worst loss. Maybe if they played the same schedule MU wouldn't be as good, but based on the schedule each team has played, Marquette owns the better resume.
3. Nevada: Houston, we have a problem. It's that Houston has two wins better than Nevada's only top-50 win & is ranked 18 spots behind them. And if Marquette should clearly be ahead of Houston, they should also clearly be ahead of Nevada. Nevada might be great, might be deep, might have won all their games, but Marquette is 4-2 against the top-40 & Nevada is 0-0.  Get back to me when you actually play someone. So March 21, 2019.

Comparable to Marquette (6)

25. Indiana: The Hoosiers don't quite have the quality of Marquette's wins, but they edge them in quantity & have a road win. The loss to Arkansas is bad, but since the 5 top-50 Kenpom wins is the root of the discussion, I'll consider them on par with us.
22. Oklahoma: Matt Norlander likes to talk about their Quadrant 1&2 wins, but Parrish used Kenpom top-50, so that's the measuring stick. Marquette wins in terms of quantity & quality of wins, the Sooners win in quantity & quality of losses, we'll call it a wash.
20. Iowa: Marquette wins in terms of quantity & quality of wins, Iowa wins quality of losses. Iowa having half the total top-50 wins is a problem, but no losses outside the top-12 is really impressive.
13. Wisconsin: Best win goes to Marquette, second best win goes to Wisconsin, best loss goes to Wisconsin, second best loss goes to Marquette. Flip the coin between these two.
10. Florida State: Marquette has the better win, FSU the better loss (and one less loss). These teams should be close together.
7. Gonzaga: Yes, I'm going there. The Duke win is awesome. Really impressive. But what else have they done? The Creighton win is nice, but Marquette has four wins between Duke & Creighton. The Zags have two losses as well. Better losses than Marquette, but 4 wins better than Gonzaga's second best win is a lot to overcome. I'm not saying Marquette should be ahead of Gonzaga. I wouldn't rank them there. But in terms of resume, Marquette's is right there next to Gonzaga.

Clearly Better Than Marquette (5)

6. Kansas, 5. Michigan, 4. Virginia, 2. Duke, 1. Tennessee: These are the ones I'm not going to go into. Though that Arizona State loss is ugly for Kansas, Marquette simply doesn't match the quality of victories these teams have & every other loss is better than our best loss.

So what does this all mean? If you're going to cite resumes as the reason for your ranking using Kenpom top-50 as the basis, Marquette should be no worse than 12th. And if you are going to make part of your profession attacking other people's work, be willing to accept the criticism when someone justifiably attacks your own, especially when you invite them to do so on your podcast.

It also means that Marquette isn't the only team that has reason to gripe. Gonzaga, Florida State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oklahoma, & Indiana should all be moving way up.

[warriorchick]

Um, isn't the only reason Buffalo is no longer in the top 15 is because we beat them?

What would they have been ranked if they won?

[94Warrior]

Game, set, match Brew! 

Chick also had the same thought I did.  MU clearly played a part in knocking Buffalo and KSU out of the Top 15.

[MuMark]

Good stuff Alan.

Nicely done

[VegasWarrior77]

Brew - Based on your analysis I think we should be #7...

[Galway Eagle]

Anybody tweet this to him?

[brewcity77]

Anybody tweet this to him?

I may have 

But the more the merrier 

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

So he defends his Marquette ranking because of KenPom.  Let's look at some other KenPom rankings.

30. Marquette
33. Iowa
35. Houston
44. Arizona State

Hmm...

[Dish]

Parrish is an a hole and scumbag. Don't get me started on him and his "reporting" on the recruiting of Malik Newman.

[CountryRoads]

Nice work. I have no problem where MU is ranked, but it is annoying when analysts, such as Parrish, have such strong opinions about certain things without really doing much research on their own.

[brewcity77]

So he defends his Marquette ranking because of KenPom.  Let's look at some other KenPom rankings.

44. Arizona State

That's the worst one by far. Completely ignored the Vandy loss just a couple days before. Has them 28 spots ahead of their kenpom ranking while using kenpom to justify his Marquette ranking.

Nice work. I have no problem where MU is ranked, but it is annoying when analysts, such as Parrish, have such strong opinions about certain things without really doing much research on their own.

I thought about this all weekend but decided yesterday not to write it. Then I heard Parrish's defense on the podcast today coupled with the "give some reasons" response and I couldn't resist.

[muguru]

That's the worst one by far. Completely ignored the Vandy loss just a couple days before. Has them 28 spots ahead of their kenpom ranking while using kenpom to justify his Marquette ranking.

I thought about this all weekend but decided yesterday not to write it. Then I heard Parrish's defense on the podcast today coupled with the "give some reasons" response and I couldn't resist.

I mean what makes him choose to use Kenpom anyway?? Why not use NET rankings then if you are going to use some sort of ranking. Exactly right Brew...you can't use Kenpom to justify(in his mind), one ranking while completely ignoring it in other cases.

[withoutbias]

please tell me we aren't going to be THAT fanbase. there are many different ways for someone to rank the top 25 college basketball teams. many would include MU which is why we're ranked 18. some go based largely on kenpom which ranks us 30 (aka not a top 26 team).

nobody likes "those" fans. its the little brothers of the world. the nc states of the world who never get any attention because duke and unc take all of it away from them. lets not be that. a single tweet to the guy saying "yo whats MU gotta do to get ranked in the top 20?" would be plenty. an entire article breaking down every top 25 team is spending way too much time on the opinion of a single human who doesnt even have a vote in the actual polls. there are much more important things than gary parrish's Top 25 and 1.

people don't have the time to put that much thought or effort into these things. the preseason polls are based largely on last season and who returns. after that it takes a slow climb as teams start to lose and you keep winning. if you beat a top 5 team you'll get a big jump, but otherwise you aren't jumping from unranked to top 10 in 3 weeks based on 3 top 50 home wins. just not how it works.

[brewcity77]

I mean what makes him choose to use Kenpom anyway?? Why not use NET rankings then if you are going to use some sort of ranking. Exactly right Brew...you can't use Kenpom to justify(in his mind), one ranking while completely ignoring it in other cases.

I originally started by putting the NET side by side. If you use the NET, Marquette's wins go to 4/17/23/32 & losses go to 12/16. In addition, Marquette is ranked 13th in that system. Every metric improves for MU in the NET.

[Cheeks]

Is Gary Parrish even an AP voter?  I don't think he is.

The guy to get crazy about is Damien-Sordelett

St. John's 16th?  Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo ranked.....MU not ranked at all. That guy should be stripped of his voting rights or a poll tax applied for his stupidity.

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll-voter/damien-sordelett

[brewcity77]

Is Gary Parrish even an AP voter?  I don't think he is.

The guy to get crazy about is Damien-Sordelett

St. John's 16th?  Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo ranked.....MU not ranked at all. That guy should be stripped of his voting rights or a poll tax applied for his stupidity.

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll-voter/damien-sordelett

Parrish is not, which means while his vote isn't counted, the people that do read his column or listen to his podcast will likely place more faith in his single, undiluted voice as his Top 25 & 1 is usually updated on a daily basis.

[1SE]

Is Gary Parrish even an AP voter?  I don't think he is.

The guy to get crazy about is Damien-Sordelett

St. John's 16th?  Kansas State, Wisconsin, Buffalo ranked.....MU not ranked at all. That guy should be stripped of his voting rights or a poll tax applied for his stupidity.

https://collegebasketball.ap.org/poll-voter/damien-sordelett

Complete non-sequitur - there are 50,000 students at Liberty - that's crazy!

[warriorchick]

Complete non-sequitur - there are 50,000 students at Liberty - that's crazy!

The overwhelming majority of them are online only.

[1SE]

The overwhelming majority of them are online only.

Hhmm - probably explains some things about their beat writer.

[tower912]

Interesting in all of this kerfluffle is that Parrish chose MU to win the Big East.   

[TheGym]

please tell me we aren't going to be THAT fanbase. there are many different ways for someone to rank the top 25 college basketball teams. many would include MU which is why we're ranked 18. some go based largely on kenpom which ranks us 30 (aka not a top 26 team).

nobody likes "those" fans. its the little brothers of the world. the nc states of the world who never get any attention because duke and unc take all of it away from them. lets not be that. a single tweet to the guy saying "yo whats MU gotta do to get ranked in the top 20?" would be plenty. an entire article breaking down every top 25 team is spending way too much time on the opinion of a single human who doesnt even have a vote in the actual polls. there are much more important things than gary parrish's Top 25 and 1.

people don't have the time to put that much thought or effort into these things. the preseason polls are based largely on last season and who returns. after that it takes a slow climb as teams start to lose and you keep winning. if you beat a top 5 team you'll get a big jump, but otherwise you aren't jumping from unranked to top 10 in 3 weeks based on 3 top 50 home wins. just not how it works.

I am fine with being that fan base.  A fan base who calls out hypocrisy and inconsistency in individual who claim to be very analytical in their positions. 

A better analogy would be the brother who is sits quietly at X-Mas with the family listening to all the drunken relatives and then mocks them with quick retorts for their ignorant statements.

[brewcity77]

Interesting in all of this kerfluffle is that Parrish chose MU to win the Big East.

And was the only CBS writer to do so, though Marquette is also the only Big East team in the top-25 & 1, so it makes sense. The point of more his defense of resumes and kenpom rankings for some schools, but completely dismisses them for others.

[MUBigDance]

A KEY point (and not really mentioned in this thread so far I think)....is that we won those two games in OVERTIME.

And (unfair I know), people think we should have lost those two.
Excuse for Louisville - they had those shots at the end of regulation. Louisville has a darling factor. MU got lucky.
Excuse for Wisconsin - Again darling factor. "Everyone else thinks Wisconsin is better". Marquette at home. MU got lucky.

In peoples lazy minds (not on Paper like Brew's masterful work) - Marquette lost those two and Kansas State/Buffalo "are probably not good anyway".  Its all assumptions, feeling, prejudices......and for Parrish, not analysis but a deadline to put out a story he won't be held accountable for.

[MUBigDance]

Further, I believe the critical eye on MU will continue thru to the tourney. The SC might get our seed right because hopefully they will use some objective metrics.....but I'll bet MU will be the chic upset choice.

[chip firmly planted on shoulder]

[Cheeks]

The overwhelming majority of them are online only.

Yup, 15K on campus, 94K online for a total of about 110K overall.