Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[wadesworld]

I honestly just don't see is getting a 2 even winning out. But I mean maybe Houston drops @cinci and MSU sweeps mich or the other way around.

There is 0 chance that a 30-4 Big East team that went 19-2 between the BE regular season and BET and is 27-2 since Thanksgiving is anything less than a 2 seed, especially with non-con wins over KState (maybe the B12 champ), Wisconsin (very outside shot at a share of a B1G championship), Buffalo (MAC champ), and Louisville.  Maybe even a 1 seed.

[IrwinFletcher]

I like how both of those sites still have Villanova bolded and not Marquette.

[Galway Eagle]

There is 0 chance that a 30-4 Big East team that went 19-2 between the BE regular season and BET and is 27-2 since Thanksgiving is anything less than a 2 seed, especially with non-con wins over KState (maybe the B12 champ), Wisconsin (very outside shot at a share of a B1G championship), Buffalo (MAC champ), and Louisville.  Maybe even a 1 seed.

That's a one dimensional look. You have to compare that against the teams ahead of us. If Unc sweeps duke then duke maybe falls to the two and unc steps up. Same with UT and UK. If the michigan schools split neither is falling below us. If Houston wins out they aren't falling below us. Same with KU.

[fjm]

We will be a 3 seed. I think we still lose 3 more games this season sadly.

BET game.
Nova
And then either providence away or Creighton at home.

[MU82]

We will be a 3 seed. I think we still lose 3 more games this season sadly.

BET game.
Nova
And then either providence away or Creighton at home.

A month ago, 2 months ago, how many games did you think we would lose?

I'm not being snarky, just curious about your track record for MU predictions this season.

[wadesworld]

That's a one dimensional look. You have to compare that against the teams ahead of us. If Unc sweeps duke then duke maybe falls to the two and unc steps up. Same with UT and UK. If the michigan schools split neither is falling below us. If Houston wins out they aren't falling below us. Same with KU.

There are a lot of losses out there.  It's one dimensional in that I don't know who specifically is going to lose what games, but too many of the top teams still play each other to not lose some games.  Duke/UVA/UNC all will play each other plus the Louisvilles and VTs of the ACC, including ACC Tournament games.  Michigan and Michigan State play twice plus a potential B1G Tournament game, plus loseable games against the Wisconsins of the B1G.  Kentucky and Tennessee plus the LSUs and the SEC Tournament.

There are just too many losses out there.  Somebody has to lose some of those games they're playing against each other.

And if we win out we pass Houston without question if you ask me, regardless of whether Houston wins out or not.

[fjm]

A month ago, 2 months ago, how many games did you think we would lose?

I'm not being snarky, just curious about your track record for MU predictions this season.

I hear ya.

Someone made a post a few weeks back. I said we would finish the season 6-3.

One loss with StJ's.

I think we are playing great. But I just see a bubble team or Creighton getting hot against us.

I really hope I'm wrong.

[IrwinFletcher]

At nova, providence and SHU is not easy. Winning 2/3 would be fantastic

[1SE]

There is 0 chance that a 30-4 Big East team that went 19-2 between the BE regular season and BET and is 27-2 since Thanksgiving is anything less than a 2 seed, especially with non-con wins over KState (maybe the B12 champ), Wisconsin (very outside shot at a share of a B1G championship), Buffalo (MAC champ), and Louisville.  Maybe even a 1 seed.

I'd say the only way we don't land a 2 seed if we win out is if KU also wins out and none of the 3 ACC teams collapses.

Either Michigan or Michigan State have three guaranteed Ls between them, plus UM still has @Maryland. One of those will fall to a 3 (whichever takes 2 or more of the guaranteed Ls).

Even if Houston wins out, we'll easily pass them if we do the same as that would include a minimum of a win @nova and probably a win against nova in the BET.

[MU82]

I hear ya.

Someone made a post a few weeks back. I said we would finish the season 6-3.

One loss with StJ's.

I think we are playing great. But I just see a bubble team or Creighton getting hot against us.

I really hope I'm wrong.

Thanks for accepting my inquiry in the manner in which I made it.

I wouldn't be stunned if you were right. Look around college basketball. Teams that "shouldn't lose" lose every night. I also hope you're wrong, of course!

[1SE]

That's a one dimensional look. You have to compare that against the teams ahead of us. If Unc sweeps duke then duke maybe falls to the two and unc steps up. Same with UT and UK. If the michigan schools split neither is falling below us. If Houston wins out they aren't falling below us. Same with KU.

One of those schools is guaranteed 2 more losses by the end of championship week. We'll pass that one if we win out.

[fjm]

A month ago, 2 months ago, how many games did you think we would lose?

I'm not being snarky, just curious about your track record for MU predictions this season.

82, I went back n checked. I thought/posted we would go 6-4 over our last 10 and end up at 13-5.

So gladly I have been far wrong.

Im always very optimistic. But just trying to keep cautious. Really hoping for only 1-2 more losses max.

[fjm]

Thanks for accepting my inquiry in the manner in which I made it.

I wouldn't be stunned if you were right. Look around college basketball. Teams that "shouldn't lose" lose every night. I also hope you're wrong, of course!

Yeah last night was a Who's Who of teams that shouldn't have lost.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's a one dimensional look. You have to compare that against the teams ahead of us. If Unc sweeps duke then duke maybe falls to the two and unc steps up. Same with UT and UK. If the michigan schools split neither is falling below us. If Houston wins out they aren't falling below us. Same with KU.

You're not wrong, but probability is that there will be enough losses out there that we would get a 2 seed. If somehow every team ahead of us defies the odds and we still end up with a 3 seed after winning out we would have the best 3 seed resume in the history of the NCAA.

All that being said, its all probably academic at this point. Us winning the next 8 games is also way against probabilities.

[1SE]

Thanks for accepting my inquiry in the manner in which I made it.

I wouldn't be stunned if you were right. Look around college basketball. Teams that "shouldn't lose" lose every night. I also hope you're wrong, of course!

Someone can run the game by game numbers, but even if we assume a 70% win prob in ALL our remaining games, it's about 5% that we win out. That said, I sure hope we do!

[MU82]

Us winning the next 8 games is also way against probabilities.

Blasphemer!

[Galway Eagle]

You're not wrong, but probability is that there will be enough losses out there that we would get a 2 seed. If somehow every team ahead of us defies the odds and we still end up with a 3 seed after winning out we would have the best 3 seed resume in the history of the NCAA.

All that being said, its all probably academic at this point. Us winning the next 8 games is also way against probabilities.

One of those schools is guaranteed 2 more losses by the end of championship week. We'll pass that one if we win out.

There are a lot of losses out there.  It's one dimensional in that I don't know who specifically is going to lose what games, but too many of the top teams still play each other to not lose some games.  Duke/UVA/UNC all will play each other plus the Louisvilles and VTs of the ACC, including ACC Tournament games.  Michigan and Michigan State play twice plus a potential B1G Tournament game, plus loseable games against the Wisconsins of the B1G.  Kentucky and Tennessee plus the LSUs and the SEC Tournament.

There are just too many losses out there.  Somebody has to lose some of those games they're playing against each other.

And if we win out we pass Houston without question if you ask me, regardless of whether Houston wins out or not.

Just going to combine this response and say I forgot about conference tournaments and was only going win out regular season relative to what the teams ahead of us do. With three ACC teams ahead, two SEC team and two B1G teams it makes more sense how you guys are looking at it.

My bad.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I know we are all frustrated that we can't seem to move up on the seed line, but some good news at least is that the team's right behind us have lost.

Since the bracket preview, here's what the teams right behind us have done:

#12 Marquette 3-0 (big win vs. Nova)
#13 Iowa State 1-2 (big win at K-State, home losses to TCU and Baylor)
#14 Nevada 2-1 (no good wins, bad loss at San Diego State)
#15 Louisville 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at Syracuse)
#16 Wisconsin 1-2 (no good wins or bad losses)
#17 Villanova 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at SJU, bad loss at Georgetown)
#18-20 LSU 3-1 (big win at Kentucky, bad loss vs Florida)
#18-20 Texas Tech 3-0 (goodish win at Oklahoma)
#18-20 Virginia Tech 2-2 (no good wins, badish loss at Clemson)

I'd say the gap between a 3 and 4 seed is pretty sizable at the moment. Gives us some nice wiggle room in case we drop a game.

[Silkk the Shaka]

You're not wrong, but probability is that there will be enough losses out there that we would get a 2 seed. If somehow every team ahead of us defies the odds and we still end up with a 3 seed after winning out we would have the best 3 seed resume in the history of the NCAA.

All that being said, its all probably academic at this point. Us winning the next 8 games is also way against probabilities.

Based on kenpom probabilities (if I'm doing this right), we have ~8% chance to win out the regular season, then if you figure 75% game 1 / 60% game 2 / 50% game 3 (assuming Nova), that brings the probability down to ~2% to get to 30-4 heading into the tournament. Not bad!

[fjm]

I know we are all frustrated that we can't seem to move up on the seed line, but some good news at least is that the team's right behind us have lost.

Since the bracket preview, here's what the teams right behind us have done:

#12 Marquette 3-0 (big win vs. Nova)
#13 Iowa State 1-2 (big win at K-State, home losses to TCU and Baylor)
#14 Nevada 2-1 (no good wins, bad loss at San Diego State)
#15 Louisville 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at Syracuse)
#16 Wisconsin 1-2 (no good wins or bad losses)
#17 Villanova 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at SJU, bad loss at Georgetown)
#18-20 LSU 3-1 (big win at Kentucky, bad loss vs Florida)
#18-20 Texas Tech 3-0 (goodish win at Oklahoma)
#18-20 Virginia Tech 2-2 (no good wins, badish loss at Clemson)

I'd say the gap between a 3 and 4 seed is pretty sizable at the moment. Gives us some nice wiggle room in case we drop a game.

Ooooh. I like this. This is the content we need! More of this!

[jsglow]

I know we are all frustrated that we can't seem to move up on the seed line, but some good news at least is that the team's right behind us have lost.

Since the bracket preview, here's what the teams right behind us have done:

#12 Marquette 3-0 (big win vs. Nova)
#13 Iowa State 1-2 (big win at K-State, home losses to TCU and Baylor)
#14 Nevada 2-1 (no good wins, bad loss at San Diego State)
#15 Louisville 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at Syracuse)
#16 Wisconsin 1-2 (no good wins or bad losses)
#17 Villanova 1-3 (no good wins, badish loss at SJU, bad loss at Georgetown)
#18-20 LSU 3-1 (big win at Kentucky, bad loss vs Florida)
#18-20 Texas Tech 3-0 (goodish win at Oklahoma)
#18-20 Virginia Tech 2-2 (no good wins, badish loss at Clemson)

I'd say the gap between a 3 and 4 seed is pretty sizable at the moment. Gives us some nice wiggle room in case we drop a game.

Spot on TAMU.  The gap back to the #4 (and beyond) line is growing materially.

[UWW2MU]

Villanova is edging towards no longer being a Q1 win at home.   They better step it  up going forward (except against MU)!   #27 NET right now.

[robmufan]

Villanova is edging towards no longer being a Q1 win at home.   They better step it  up going forward (except against MU)!   #27 NET right now.

At the same time though, Georgetown is now a Q1 win. So it was a fair trade off last night.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

Louisville as a 6 seed in the second round? No thank you...

[MU82]

Based on kenpom probabilities (if I'm doing this right), we have ~8% chance to win out the regular season, then if you figure 75% game 1 / 60% game 2 / 50% game 3 (assuming Nova), that brings the probability down to ~2% to get to 30-4 heading into the tournament. Not bad!

According to my calculations, we have a 100% chance of winning out.