Bracketology Thread 2018-19

[MU82]

Again,  I'd rather have a better seed with less fans then a worse seed with more fans

This, this, 1000 times this.

For me to be able to go to games, it would be nice if MU was sent to Columbia or Jax on the first weekend and DC or Louisville in the regionals.

But here's the kind of guy I am: I'd gladly sacrifice those in-person viewing opportunities for MU to get the best path to the Final Four.

Based on every single bracket projection I have seen the last month, I'd LOVE for MU to be the 2 or 3 seed out West.

[BM1090]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology

[HowardsWorld]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology

I understand the Nova is seed 6 because of their bad losses to Penn and Furman but they would run through that bracket to the final 4 line a hot knife through butter.

[MU82]

I understand the Nova is seed 6 because of their bad losses to Penn and Furman but they would run through that bracket to the final 4 line a hot knife through butter.

Maybe. But they couldn't even hold a 19-point lead over a StJ team that some Scoopers say is horrible at a venue where they hadn't lost to StJ in almost 2 decades.

Nova is a good team, but it wouldn't surprise me one iota if they lost in the first round. Wouldn't stun me if they put together a FF run, either.

[BM1090]

I understand the Nova is seed 6 because of their bad losses to Penn and Furman but they would run through that bracket to the final 4 line a hot knife through butter.

Gonna disagree with you there. UNC is better than Nova. I do think they'd get out of the first weekend.

[jsglow]

This, this, 1000 times this.

For me to be able to go to games, it would be nice if MU was sent to Columbia or Jax on the first weekend and DC or Louisville in the regionals.

But here's the kind of guy I am: I'd gladly sacrifice those in-person viewing opportunities for MU to get the best path to the Final Four.

Based on every single bracket projection I have seen the last month, I'd LOVE for MU to be the 2 or 3 seed out West.

What I'm talking about though is the opening weekend pod.  It can literally be anywhere and in any Region.  So Des Moines and West, all good for me!

Plus, the likelihood of a Sweet 16 is enhanced somewhat if MU can get a large contingent to the game in person.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

My questions is at what point does that amount of losses take away from your Q1 wins. Kansas is the prefect example. They have 2 more losses than us, more Q1 wins but are ahead of us in the S curve. Yes they have the head to head but you think 4 losses vs 6 losses would start to lean more Marquette.  Michigan state has 5 losses but would they still be ahead of us with 7 losses?

You can't just look at the totals, you also have to look at who the wins and losses are against.

Kansas has 2 more losses but all but one are Q1 losses. And 4/5 of their Q1 losses are of the Q1A variety, meaning 4 of their losses are to teams that would beat almost anybody in the venue the played in. For comparisons sake, only 1 of Marquette's losses is Q1A (to Kansas) the others are Q1B (x2) and Q2A.

Meanwhile, they also have 9 Q1 wins (most in the country), including 6 Q1A wins (also most in the country). Marquette has 7 Q1 wins only 2 of which are Q1A wins.

And despite Kansas having 2 more Q1 wins, 4 more Q1A wins, and 1 less non-Q1A loss, they are only two spots ahead of us on the S-Curve.

So to answer your question, the 2 extra losses have basically dropped Kansas from a 1 seed all the way to a 3 seed.

[MU82]

What I'm talking about though is the opening weekend pod.  It can literally be anywhere and in any Region.  So Des Moines and West, all good for me!

Plus, the likelihood of a Sweet 16 is enhanced somewhat if MU can get a large contingent to the game in person.

That's fair, and it certainly works for me. I will gladly sacrifice getting to watch MU in person for you to get to go watch us win twice in Des Moines and then for us to advance to the FF.

What a selfless guy I am!

[Benny B]

By looking just at the s-curve of the Early 16 announced by the committee plus geographic proximity (i.e. not taking anything else into consideration yet):

[Note: Gonzaga and Nevada have no impact on the other 14 teams... in every possible scenario, including if both were to drop to 15th and 16th on the s-curve - San Jose and/or SLC are available options when their respective spots comes up.  Those schools can send their thank you cards to the Pac-12.]

1) Columbia is closest for both UVA and Duke.  (If there's one takeaway here, it's to pray MU doesn't drop to an 8/9 seed here, because good luck getting a hotel in Columbia that weekend  )

2) Columbus is the closest site for five teams - UM, UK, MSU, PU, & UL - four of whom are ahead of MU on the s-curve.

3) Of those five, only UM gets placed in Columbus, because Tenn was already bumped to Columbus.

4) Since MSU and UK are bumped from Columbus (and Columbia is full), both end up at the next closest available site: Des Moines.

5) With Columbus and Columbia now off the board, UNC ends up at their third closest: Jacksonville.

6) Tulsa is closest for KU and Houston, and since it's their turn, that's where they be off to.

7) Now it's PU's and MU's turn... for both, closest available is Hartford.

8) UL ends up at their fifth closest, Jacksonville.  Which leaves UW-Madison and LSU to be shipped out west (SLC and SJ, respectively).


So it's pretty clear that Columbus is the longest of long shots for MU, and the most likely way to get to Des Moines is to overtake two of UK, MSU and PU on the s-curve.  Otherwise, Hartford seems like the most probable site for MU at this juncture.

That being said, I'm only looking at geography here.... there are over a dozen other guidelines and principles that could realistically impact MU's placement, so even if the season ended today, there's a distinct possibility that MU would not end up in Hartford; that doesn't mean MU would be placed closer to home, but there's really no easy exercise to ascertain the probabilities until they start building the entire bracket, not just the top 16.  But if I were playing with money, I would comfortably bet against Columbia, Columbus, and San Jose.

[brewcity77]

By looking just at the s-curve of the Early 16 announced by the committee plus geographic proximity (i.e. not taking anything else into consideration yet):

[Note: Gonzaga and Nevada have no impact on the other 14 teams... in every possible scenario, including if both were to drop to 15th and 16th on the s-curve - San Jose and/or SLC are available options when their respective spots comes up.  Those schools can send their thank you cards to the Pac-12.]

1) Columbia is closest for both UVA and Duke.  (If there's one takeaway here, it's to pray MU doesn't drop to an 8/9 seed here, because good luck getting a hotel in Columbia that weekend  )

2) Columbus is the closest site for five teams - UM, UK, MSU, PU, & UL - four of whom are ahead of MU on the s-curve.

3) Of those five, only UM gets placed in Columbus, because Tenn was already bumped to Columbus.

4) Since MSU and UK are bumped from Columbus (and Columbia is full), both end up at the next closest available site: Des Moines.

5) With Columbus and Columbia now off the board, UNC ends up at their third closest: Jacksonville.

6) Tulsa is closest for KU and Houston, and since it's their turn, that's where they be off to.

7) Now it's PU's and MU's turn... for both, closest available is Hartford.

8) UL ends up at their fifth closest, Jacksonville.  Which leaves UW-Madison and LSU to be shipped out west (SLC and SJ, respectively).


So it's pretty clear that Columbus is the longest of long shots for MU, and the most likely way to get to Des Moines is to overtake two of UK, MSU and PU on the s-curve.  Otherwise, Hartford seems like the most probable site for MU at this juncture.

That being said, I'm only looking at geography here.... there are over a dozen other guidelines and principles that could realistically impact MU's placement, so even if the season ended today, there's a distinct possibility that MU would not end up in Hartford; that doesn't mean MU would be placed closer to home, but there's really no easy exercise to ascertain the probabilities until they start building the entire bracket, not just the top 16.  But if I were playing with money, I would comfortably bet against Columbia, Columbus, and San Jose.

I actually think there's another very plausible scenario. I don't think Tennessee will get Columbus. They will end up on the 2-line behind Kentucky, which will give Columbus to Kentucky and the second closest for Tennessee is Jacksonville, not Des Moines. That could move us up the pecking order. UT's schedule gets significantly more difficult; their easy SEC road has their current SOS as easier than teams like Gonzaga & Houston, who are frequently knocked for their SOS.

[MuMark]

Just don't want to get stuck playing a 2nd round game against Iowa in Des Moines......

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Just don't want to get stuck playing a 2nd round game against Iowa in Des Moines......

Who would?

[Cheeks]

I'm convinced MU to Hartford or San Jose.  Not enough juicy wins left to climb the latter enough. Big East isn't strong enough to propel us, and if we lose against Seton Hall, Nova, etc, we will drop.

[muguru]

Just don't want to get stuck playing a 2nd round game against Iowa in Des Moines......

See, now this should NEVER happen..Iowa, as a lower and unprotected seed should NOT be allowed to play that close to home. Not saying it won't, but that sh*t should NEVER happen.

[CountryRoads]

See, now this should NEVER happen..Iowa, as a lower and unprotected seed should NOT be allowed to play that close to home. Not saying it won't, but that sh*t should NEVER happen.

Seemed like it happened to Duke against South Carolina that year. Another tournament where MU got screwed on location. I wouldn't put it past them.

[MuMark]

Seemed like it happened to Duke against South Carolina that year. Another tournament where MU got screwed on location. I wouldn't put it past them.

Yep it shouldn't happen but it has

[MU82]

Seemed like it happened to Duke against South Carolina that year. Another tournament where MU got screwed on location. I wouldn't put it past them.

Actually, that "pod" was supposed to be played in Greensboro. But the passage of HB2 (the "bathroom bill," which turned North Carolina into an international laughingstock) caused the NCAA to move all championship events out of the state. So it got moved to Greenville.

[Cheeks]

Actually, that "pod" was supposed to be played in Greensboro. But the passage of HB2 (the "bathroom bill," which turned North Carolina into an international laughingstock) caused the NCAA to move all championship events out of the state. So it got moved to Greenville.

Nicely done....good weaving into the post...top notch....

[MU82]

Nicely done....good weaving into the post...top notch....

I know that facts bother you, troll.

[brewcity77]

Actually, that "pod" was supposed to be played in Greensboro. But the passage of HB2 (the "bathroom bill," which turned North Carolina into an international laughingstock) caused the NCAA to move all championship events out of the state. So it got moved to Greenville.

All true, but it was also known well before hand where the games would be. It wasn't a late switch that gave SC home court.

[Benny B]

Yep it shouldn't happen but it has

When?  The protected seeds (top 4) only apply in the first round game, so the Duke matchup is irrelevant and MU was not protected, so vs. SC in Greenville was fair game. 

[MuMark]

When?  The protected seeds (top 4) only apply in the first round game, so the Duke matchup is irrelevant and MU was not protected, so vs. SC in Greenville was fair game.

I don't think protected seeds should have to play a defacto road game in the 2nd round......I understand that it is allowed and therefore could happen.

I just want to avoid that situation as an MU fan......understand now?

[MU82]

All true, but it was also known well before hand where the games would be. It wasn't a late switch that gave SC home court.

True.

[BM1090]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[Galway Eagle]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

I honestly just don't see is getting a 2 even winning out. But I mean maybe Houston drops @cinci and MSU sweeps mich or the other way around.