R-E-L-A-X

[Cheeks]

Poor bet? Duke will almost assuredly be a #1 seed this year. To make the S16 they wink have to beat a 16 seed and an 8/9 seed winner. They'll be a massive favorite in game 1 (99%) and a very solid favorite in game 2 (75-85%) so the odds of them winning both are between .99x.75 and .99x.85 or approximately 74% and 84%.

IOW, not a poor bet, but one you make every time.

100% agree it isn't a poor bet, and yes it is one you make every time, or close to it.  Historically 86.03% of the time a #1 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16.  Damn good bet.

[Floorslapper]

I remember this kind of talk in the 90's with UNLV....a virtual guarantee to win it all.....but they didn't.

So they got beat in the National Championship game.  (Not exactly the same as bowing out of the tournament in the Round of 32 - as would be the case if Duke doesn't make Sweet 16 this year.)

UVA was a lock for Sweet 16 last year according to everybody not named UMBC

I'll take my chances that the 1/16 upset that had never happened in roughly 140 games, won't repeat itself this year.

You want in on the action Cheeks?  Same offer to you? $100.  I've got Duke in Sweet 16, you don't. 

[wadesworld]

100% agree it isn't a poor bet, and yes it is one you make every time, or close to it.  Historically 86.03% of the time a #1 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16.  Damn good bet.

Are we sure Duke is going to be a 1 seed?

Zags could be undefeated with a win over Duke. Nevada could be undefeated. Both would be 1 seeds if that's the case.

Does Duke win the ACC over UVA? Does Kansas get a 1 seed when they win the Big 12?

[Floorslapper]

No thanks

Fair enough.  Please feel free to kindly edit your post suggesting my offered bet was "dumb."   

I respect your decision.  It is HIGHLY likely Duke makes the Sweet 16 this year.

[jesmu84]

Fair enough.  Please feel free to kindly edit your post suggesting my offered bet was "dumb."   

I respect your decision.  It is HIGHLY likely Duke makes the Sweet 16 this year.

In saying "dumb", I'm referring to you needing people to state whether they think Marquette will make the S16 as a barometer for their confidence in the team.

[Floorslapper]

In saying "dumb", I'm referring to you needing people to state whether they think Marquette will make the S16 as a barometer for their confidence in the team.

That's one way of looking at it. Another?  If a person isn't willing to put any cash on it, they ultimately aren't very confident.

Going into this Magic Power Point, Year 5, when all things will be revealed, there sure was a lot of bullish optimism and now it seems those most bullish, are backing off those projections - and once again putting caveats in place - "it's a crapshoot," "matchups," etc.  At some point this coach needs to perform and get the job done.  Simple as that.  Show us you can do it Wojo (and that's when my criticism will stop.)

[Cheeks]

So they got beat in the National Championship game.  (Not exactly the same as bowing out of the tournament in the Round of 32 - as would be the case if Duke doesn't make Sweet 16 this year.)

I'll take my chances that the 1/16 upset that had never happened in roughly 140 games, won't repeat itself this year.

You want in on the action Cheeks?  Same offer to you? $100.  I've got Duke in Sweet 16, you don't.

I would take Duke in the Sweet 16 assuming they stay healthy.  For almost any other team, except Michigan maybe, I would not.....that includes Marquette. Way too early to know, plus I need to know who they are playing, where they are playing.  Duke is one of the few teams that on talent alone should get there.

[jesmu84]

That's one way of looking at it. Another?  If a person isn't willing to put any cash on it, they ultimately aren't very confident.

Going into this Magic Power Point, Year 5, when all things will be revealed, there sure was a lot of bullish optimism and now it seems those most bullish, are backing off those projections - and once again putting caveats in place - "it's a crapshoot," "matchups," etc.  At some point this coach needs to perform and get the job done.  Simple as that.  Show us you can do it Wojo (and that's when my criticism will stop.)

I don't deny your premise. But you keep asking about the S16. Why not total wins? Or conference wins? Or NCAA seed?

Picking the results of a one and done tourney as your measuring stick for people's confidence is automatically a disqualifier (at least for me) and leads me to believe you're playing an intentionally disingenuous game.

[GGGG]

That's one way of looking at it. Another?  If a person isn't willing to put any cash on it, they ultimately aren't very confident.

Going into this Magic Power Point, Year 5, when all things will be revealed, there sure was a lot of bullish optimism and now it seems those most bullish, are backing off those projections - and once again putting caveats in place - "it's a crapshoot," "matchups," etc.  At some point this coach needs to perform and get the job done.  Simple as that.  Show us you can do it Wojo (and that's when my criticism will stop.)

No it won't. You never stop.

[dgies9156]

Back in Al's day the talent was horded by less teams with more scholarships.  Today the talent is spread out and available to many schools due to less scholarships and the ease by which families, etc can watch junior play.  The elite teams back in Al's day May have been better than today, at least among their peer set.   

In Coach Al's days, particularly before the mid-1970s, comparatively few teams recruited African-American basketball players. John Wooden did. Al did. Dean Smith did. Guess who was 1-2-3 in the 1970s?

Today, thankfully, the prejudice that confronted our teams in the 1960s and early 1970s is largely gone. An African American basketball player has the same opportunity has a caucasian basketball player. As a consequence, the edge Al had in cracked sidewalk neighborhoods has largely been diluted. It's harder to build a dynasty today, but easierr to find one or two great players who can turn a team around in a minute.

Coach Wojo has discovered that while he has a great sale in Marquette, the players he pursues also are being pursued by some very high powered programs. Coach Wojo only wil win those battles if he wins on the court and assures his best ends up in the NBA.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That's one way of looking at it. Another?  If a person isn't willing to put any cash on it, they ultimately aren't very confident.

Going into this Magic Power Point, Year 5, when all things will be revealed, there sure was a lot of bullish optimism and now it seems those most bullish, are backing off those projections - and once again putting caveats in place - "it's a crapshoot," "matchups," etc.  At some point this coach needs to perform and get the job done.  Simple as that.  Show us you can do it Wojo (and that's when my criticism will stop.)

I'm not backing off anything. Sweet 16 was never a part of the equation. All about seeding in the tourney. If we get a 1 seed and lose to the 16 seed it will be a gut punch but I will still say that it was an overly successful season. If we play in Dayton but go on a magical run to the Sweet 16 I will enjoy it immensely but will say it was a season that we underachieved.

[Floorslapper]

I'm not backing off anything. Sweet 16 was never a part of the equation. All about seeding in the tourney. If we get a 1 seed and lose to the 16 seed it will be a gut punch but I will still say that it was an overly successful season. If we play in Dayton but go on a magical run to the Sweet 16 I will enjoy it immensely but will say it was a season that we underachieved.

What was promised/part of the equation in Year 5 of the Magic Power Point?  I'd have to imagine there was more than just making the NCAA tournament, no?

Curious:  If we finish 20-11, Finish 3rd or 4th in Big East, make the tourney as an 8 seed and get bounced in the first round - successful season?

[BM1090]

What was promised/part of the equation in Year 5 of the Magic Power Point?  I'd have to imagine there was more than just making the NCAA tournament, no?

Curious:  If we finish 20-11, Finish 3rd or 4th in Big East, make the tourney as an 8 seed and get bounced in the first round - successful season?

For me, no. Decent season. Short of expectations. 8 and winning a game I'd be okay with. 6 seed or better and I could live with a first round loss

[Marcus92]

Finishing in the top 3 or 4 in the Big East this season and earning an 8 seed in the tournament would be the team's best finish under Wojo. It would also be the 2nd NCAA appearance in 3 years.

That's clear progress. Can this team do better? With the talent and depth on the roster, I could still see us competing for a Top 25 ranking and a 5 or 6 seed. It will likely depend on how the new players (JC, Ed, Joey and Brendan) gel and develop over the next few months -- and whether the upperclassmen (Markus, Sam, Sacar) step up as leaders.

The picture should be clearer in about a month, once the conference schedule starts. Let's see how we do against Kansas State and Wisconsin.

[Johnny B]

Finishing in the top 3 or 4 in the Big East this season and earning an 8 seed in the tournament would be the team's best finish under Wojo. It would also be the 2nd NCAA appearance in 3 years.

That's clear progress. Can this team do better? With the talent and depth on the roster, I could still see us competing for a Top 25 ranking and a 5 or 6 seed. It will likely depend on how the new players (JC, Ed, Joey and Brendan) gel and develop over the next few months -- and whether the upperclassmen (Markus, Sam, Sacar) step up as leaders.

The picture should be clearer in about a month, once the conference schedule starts. Let's see how we do against Kansas State and Wisconsin.

8 seed is the goal lmao? douche

[JakeBarnes]

8 seed is the goal lmao? douche

douchebaga are hygenic products so I take that as a compliment.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

What was promised/part of the equation in Year 5 of the Magic Power Point?  I'd have to imagine there was more than just making the NCAA tournament, no?

Curious:  If we finish 20-11, Finish 3rd or 4th in Big East, make the tourney as an 8 seed and get bounced in the first round - successful season?

I don't think many successful leaders would judge success based on one game which would amount to 3% (or less) of the season.

As for your scenario, no,  I would not consider that a success. It would fall just short of expectations. Bump it to a 7 seed or make the round of 32 and it would meet expectations.

Though if you follow KenPom,  he projected this roster as an 8 seed preseason, so as a dedicated disciple I would imagine you would think an 8 seed was a success.

[Marcus92]

8 seed is the goal lmao? douche

Maybe I shouldn't bother replying to someone with so little respect for other posters, or so little interest in actually reading other posts.

Nowhere did I say an 8 seed should be the goal for the Marquette program. I said it would be progress. Progress from 3 straight years missing the tournament (starting with the last season Buzz was here). Progress toward competing for Big East championships.

Based on what we've seen so far, an 8 seed is a realistic expectation for this team. Expectations aren't the same as goals. I didn't say that an 8 seed was my expectation, either. if you managed to read a few sentences further, you would have seen that I think this team can do better. Next season, even more so.

And if you disagree with me, I won't respond with an insult worthy of a 14-year-old.

[WarriorDad]

100% agree it isn't a poor bet, and yes it is one you make every time, or close to it.  Historically 86.03% of the time a #1 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16.  Damn good bet.

Where is that 86.03% stat coming from?  I found this, http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml , but my math would suggest 84% success rate based on the 8/9 records.  Though this data may not be up to date.

Still the right bet to make.

[Stretchdeltsig]

Talent on da currant roster is over-raided, hey?

You may be right.  What really gets me, is watching the varmints win game after game with mediocre talent, while Marquette has much higher ranked recruits struggle to win.  It seems that Bo and Gard do a much better job than Wojo coaching up players and preparing them to win.  I wish it weren't so, but year after year it seems true.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Guys,  WarriorDad disagreed with Cheeks. We were obviously wrong

[Jay Bee]

That's one way of looking at it. Another?  If a person isn't willing to put any cash on it, they ultimately aren't very confident.

Your boi Traci is really struggling. Must be a shocker to you. Lol, La Salle will fall to 0-8 when they lose again today. Ouch.

[Floorslapper]

Your boi Traci is really struggling. Must be a shocker to you. Lol, La Salle will fall to 0-8 when they lose again today. Ouch.

Yep.  Definitely surprised Traci hasn't performed better.  First time head coach.  Hasn't played in 1.5 years.  Lots of room for improvement. 

Still got that Top 15 finish for MU this year JayBee?  Know you were all in on this squad pre-season.

[Floorslapper]

I don't think many successful leaders would judge success based on one game which would amount to 3% (or less) of the season.

As for your scenario, no,  I would not consider that a success. It would fall just short of expectations. Bump it to a 7 seed or make the round of 32 and it would meet expectations.

Though if you follow KenPom,  he projected this roster as an 8 seed preseason, so as a dedicated disciple I would imagine you would think an 8 seed was a success.

We are talking about Year 5 of the 5 year plan TAMU.  This isn't the case of judging "one game."  Is it too much to ask that Wojo win ONE NCAA tourney game in 5-years?

Did the Power Point specify projected seed in Year 5?  A mediocre 8 seed?  Personally would hope the expectations would be slightly higher than an 8 seed in Year 5 of the regime, with an expectation of a coin flip 1st round defeat in NCAA.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Where is that 86.03% stat coming from?  I found this, http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml , but my math would suggest 84% success rate based on the 8/9 records.  Though this data may not be up to date.

Still the right bet to make.

JFC