Of Lines and Men

[Da 'Lanche]

So...there have been a few topics and comments about early lines, betting trends, etc.   Just a few insights, for what they are worth, from someone who is connected to very knowledgeable folks in the industry and has had a lot of success in the...um...gaming industry...as a complimentary hobby to his real career.

1.  College basketball, especially early in the season, is the best and most lucrative opportunity for sports betting out of all sports, pro or college.  The reasons?   First, there are almost 300 teams that can get line action and there are only so many teams that handicappers can study in depth.   It is easy to put a line on KU vs. Michigan State, for instance, but, far less is known about 100-200 teams or so (if not more) early on beyond what happened last season and reputation.   So, you see some absolutely wild lines based on history and not reality of current roster, team performance, etc.   You could see a team in week one, that, in week 10 would be favored but is actually a large (6-10 point) underdog on the road...or, a home dog of 20+ that would be a single digit dog in reality.   So much value.  After December, this value goes way down as teams trend.   Georgetown as a huge dog tonight, for example, was just too delicious to pass up.

2.   Only in college basketball can 1 player truly make a change in the potential covering of a spread.   Take a mid major...or a really shitty major team...toss in a dominant player with a great mismatch....give me points all day!  CFB has some similar trends...if you have an NFL quality QB, no matter the team, with a big spread against...bet the dog.

3.  The ref crews make an absolute huge difference in the over/unders...both in the NBA and especially in NCAAB.    Good ft shooting team....tight calling ref crew...take the over...every frickin time.  Watch their stats in terms of ft attempts in games they call....this is also true in MLB....strike zone trends in calls make a huge difference in the over/unders.

4.  People think they get screwed on back door covers...that is because it is too close to the spread (although...sometimes back door covers happen with a miracle shot and rip your heart out)...bet confidence levels on beating the spread...if you get beat, you get beat but don't gamble on a spread you feel will be you will be rooting for in the final minute.


5.   Early line movement, IMO, means squat.   The smart money always comes in at the end. Watch number of bets vs. volume of bets....Vegas/Books set a line to try to attract equal action on both sides as they make the money on the juice..but, let's face it....like anything...they will give up the money to thefew smarts to take more money from the public...who will continue to sucker in to non-smart bets.   If the early line looks too tempting...probably is...unless you are in early on a game when the line is just plain wrong...which happens...see point 1.   On big, big games...Vegas know everything...from weather trends (for football), to travel trends, home court trends, injuries, scheme trends, etc.    Bet knowing that facts...sometimes you (and I) put it all together and know more, but, lines in and of themselves are not as intuitive as you would think.   


6.  IMO, in NCABB, matchups are huge.  Interior presence vs. interior defense....3 point shooting vs. perimeter defense...ft shooting (maybe not as meaningful in w vs. L) is huge in covers, experience team vs. highly recruited 1 or 2 stars (especially with experienced mid major teams),  and rivalry games matter.


7.  Only bet what you can afford and for pure recreational fun...but, think of it as a slow term investment and bet mainly the same amount per game and take your wins and losses as such.....chasing losses with higher bets is exactly the strategy that builds new casinos.


8.   Blindly and always bet MU...no matter the spread!   Actually, I never bet MU because i love our program and want to just purely be a fan with no other incentive or emotion tied to the game.


9.  Bet small amounts against those you hate....just because that does feel sweeter when they lose...


Enjoy the season!

[skianth16]

This is my new favorite Scoop post of all time. Love the insights!

I've always felt like the early weeks of both college football and basketball offered some really advantageous lines; glad to get confirmation from someone with some inside knowledge.

If you ever felt compelled to call out a few of these bad lines for fellow Scoopers to take look at, that could make for a fun thread.

[mileskishnish72]

But some folks think free throws no matta.

[Dish]

My advice...if you are too emotionally invested in your own team and always want to bet them, try to buy the win instead.

[fjm]

Great insight, after reading your post it does ring true that early college basketball does bring in a fairly good returns. I hit the under for both of the first to Marquette games and made a solid amount of money. Not sure what I will do tonight, however I don't see both teams going for 75 points with other defenses have looked really the season.

[MU82]

Most SEC football teams are playing OOC cupcakes this weekend, and the lines are staggering.

More on topic ...

I can't bet MU games. Too many emotions.

[Da 'Lanche]

This is my new favorite Scoop post of all time. Love the insights!

I've always felt like the early weeks of both college football and basketball offered some really advantageous lines; glad to get confirmation from someone with some inside knowledge.

If you ever felt compelled to call out a few of these bad lines for fellow Scoopers to take look at, that could make for a fun thread.

You are absolutely right on target.    And, all of this is just to try to get any advantage possible to achieve a greater than 55% win percentage...it is still gambling and the performance of 18-21 year old kids.   Even with the greatest of insights, you still lose, in a good season, 40% of your bets...that is why it is a long term strategy throughout the season.   So, even when "experts" (which I am not one...just have good friends in the business who share with me) share picks, they tend to lose quite a few of them.   It is supposed to be fun, and add some entertainment on top of the entertainment.

That being said, I thought the line on St. Francis vs Richmond this morning was enticing at Richmond -13.5....after looking at the comparable rosters, and early performance this year, I would take St. Francis in that game for some of the reasons I stated above.   Now watch Richmond blow them out by 40 (doubt it).     I would think that spread should be around 7-8.    Not that in a million years I would think about analyzing and betting on Richmond vs. St. Francis...but when you see some of the numbers, it is sort of fun to look deeper and see how it pans out.

Maybe we should start a scoop thread on best bet of the week or something.    Once sports gambling is legalized in all states, it will be fairly interesting to see how it is embraced by sports and leagues...I think the NBA will revolutionize in-game betting at arenas and the NCAA will stay far far away.   who knows?

[Floorslapper]

For those gamblers, might want to look at NBA Futures and go in on the Bucks.  I did pre-season at 100-1 to win NBA championship, and to win the East at 15-1

Bucks have the best strength of schedule in the league thus far, and clearly a superior record to those near them. Also there Points For and Points Against spread is 2nd best in league (despite playing the league's toughest schedule.)

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Some great value on Portland too:

65 to 1 to Win West and 125 to 1 to Win Championship.  Strong record and SOS thus far too.

[wadesworld]

For those gamblers, might want to look at NBA Futures and go in on the Bucks.  I did pre-season at 100-1 to win NBA championship, and to win the East at 15-1

Bucks have the best strength of schedule in the league thus far, and clearly a superior record to those near them. Also there Points For and Points Against spread is 2nd best in league (despite playing the league's toughest schedule.)

https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Some great value on Portland too:

65 to 1 to Win West and 125 to 1 to Win Championship.  Strong record and SOS thus far too.

I do not think record when looking at who to put money on is a good strategy for the NBA.

I did put money in the Bucks to come out of the East, though. I still don't think they will, but good enough money to make a small bet for fun.

I wouldn't put any money on anybody but the Warriors to come out of the West or to win the title. And frankly I wouldn't put money on the Warriors because the return isn't good enough.

[Floorslapper]

I do not think record when looking at who to put money on is a good strategy for the NBA.

I did put money in the Bucks to come out of the East, though. I still don't think they will, but good enough money to make a small bet for fun.

I wouldn't put any money on anybody but the Warriors to come out of the West or to win the title. And frankly I wouldn't put money on the Warriors because the return isn't good enough.

Yep - Wouldn't touch Warriors at their future odds.  Yet, I don't think they are quite* as formidable as they have been in past.  The chemistry issues between Green and Durant could bubble/cause diminished performance.

The site I use does allow one to use a Cash Out feature - they offer you more to cash out, as things look worse for them.  I could double my money already on the Bucks wagers I made. That is part of my strategy in doing the deal on Portland right now.  I think Portland will be a 3 seed in the West, and have a chance to advance a couple of rounds, which will further inflate they cash out payout.

I do believe Bucks have a legit shot to come out of the East.  It's really a 3-team race:  Toronto, Celtics, Bucks

[Babybluejeans]

Yep - Wouldn't touch Warriors at their future odds.  Yet, I don't think they are quite* as formidable as they have been in past.  The chemistry issues between Green and Durant could bubble/cause diminished performance.

The site I use does allow one to use a Cash Out feature - they offer you more to cash out, as things look worse for them.  I could double my money already on the Bucks wagers I made. That is part of my strategy in doing the deal on Portland right now.  I think Portland will be a 3 seed in the West, and have a chance to advance a couple of rounds, which will further inflate they cash out payout.

I do believe Bucks have a legit shot to come out of the East.  It's really a 3-team race:  Toronto, Celtics, Bucks

What service do you use? That Cash Out feature sounds interesting. It sounds somewhat like PredictIt (which I used to make a hefty profit on the recent mid-terms), in that you can buy an outcome at a certain price, and then sell it at a different price later on. I'd love to use that on sports.

[Floorslapper]

What service do you use? That Cash Out feature sounds interesting. It sounds somewhat like PredictIt (which I used to make a hefty profit on the recent mid-terms), in that you can buy an outcome at a certain price, and then sell it at a different price later on. I'd love to use that on sports.

Yea - It is a nice feature to have.  It's basically like owning options that are in the money before expiration...just a matter of when you decide to exit.

I use:  sportsbook.ag

They are legit. I've withdrawn money from my account with them several times.  However, it does take 4-8 weeks to get your money sent to you (at least as of the last time I withdrew a couple of years ago.)

Another nice feature they also frequently incentive you to make deposits into your account, and will award deposit bonuses of up to $1,000 based on up to a 50% bonus.  For example, deposit $100, and they will bonus $50 into your account.  Usually more along the lines of 10-30% deposit bonuses, but...it's essentially "free" money.

[wadesworld]

I have a small wager on Ohio State and Penn State covering tonight.

[Da 'Lanche]

I am looking at Valpo +5.5 at WKU.   Early in the year type game and both teams are figuring out their returning talent, recruits and transfers in. WKU may be overvalued a bit due to their NIT run.   

[skianth16]

Yea - It is a nice feature to have.  It's basically like owning options that are in the money before expiration...just a matter of when you decide to exit.

I use:  sportsbook.ag

They are legit. I've withdrawn money from my account with them several times.  However, it does take 4-8 weeks to get your money sent to you (at least as of the last time I withdrew a couple of years ago.)

Another nice feature they also frequently incentive you to make deposits into your account, and will award deposit bonuses of up to $1,000 based on up to a 50% bonus.  For example, deposit $100, and they will bonus $50 into your account.  Usually more along the lines of 10-30% deposit bonuses, but...it's essentially "free" money.

Don't these "free money" deposit bonuses usually require you to bet that bonus amount several times before being able to cash it out? I know I've seen bonus offers that required the bonus to be bet 12 times before allowing a cash out. With most sports betting odds, you'll likely never get that bonus.

[skianth16]

Maybe we should start a scoop thread on best bet of the week or something.    Once sports gambling is legalized in all states, it will be fairly interesting to see how it is embraced by sports and leagues...I think the NBA will revolutionize in-game betting at arenas and the NCAA will stay far far away.   who knows?

Bet of the week would be a great thread. It may not have quite the legs of the NM thread, but it could be close.

I would agree that there will be some very cool in-game betting changes with pro sports, and I have a feeling we may end up with OTB-esque books popping up all over. Some may even be in the arenas! I would love to see regular sports bars get in on the action too; it could make going to the bar to watch a game that much more entertaining. 

[Floorslapper]

I have a small wager on Ohio State and Penn State covering tonight.

Considering Big East track record so far..good call.  I too liked Penn State -1.5 to DePaul and laid $50 on PSU.

[Floorslapper]

Don't these "free money" deposit bonuses usually require you to bet that bonus amount several times before being able to cash it out? I know I've seen bonus offers that required the bonus to be bet 12 times before allowing a cash out. With most sports betting odds, you'll likely never get that bonus.

Sometimes they will award it as a "bet," where you simply are forced to use the bonus as a one shot bet.  The other bonuses go directly to your account and can be used however.  I cannot tell you about the fine print on the bonuses (you'd think they'd protect themselves and not allow bonus money to be withdrawn), yet I haven't encountered the bet 12 times before being allowed to cash out.

[Da 'Lanche]

At the risk of betting on the year to date disappointing big east, I like providence to cover the 1 to 1.5 over South Carolina.   Diallo is a beast.  Then again, I'm off to about as slow a start as our conference...