Author Topic: Early Line MU +8 (Read 11629 times)

BM1090 · « **Reply #25 on:** November 13, 2018, 07:08:11 PM »

I've bordered on cautiously optimistic/pessimistic the last two years. I know this is a game we could lose, but I'm all in with this team. F it. We're winning tomorrow.

tower912 · « **Reply #26 on:** November 13, 2018, 07:29:39 PM »

80-68 IU. First road game for MU. Assembly Hall is notoriously difficult to play in. I thought IU looked quicker against their cupcakes than MU did.

Mutaman · « **Reply #27 on:** November 13, 2018, 07:39:28 PM »

It hit 8.5 for awhile.

In life follow these two rules although sometimes as here, they conflict:

1. Your bookmaker knows more than you do.

2. Always bet the underlay and you will come out ahead.

Warriors at +8.5 is a pretty big underlay I think.

Herman Cain · « **Reply #28 on:** November 13, 2018, 08:08:53 PM »

My approach for college basketball is to take the differential in true plus factor players times 4. So add up the plus factor pogo sticks , quality necks and skills guys for each team .

Right now spread is telling us Indiana has between 1-2 more plus factor players.

BM1090 · « **Reply #29 on:** November 13, 2018, 08:31:50 PM »

Quote from: Herman Cain on November 13, 2018, 08:08:53 PM

My approach for college basketball is to take the differential in true plus factor players times 4. So add up the plus factor pogo sticks , quality necks and skills guys for each team .

Right now spread is telling us Indiana has between 1-2 more plus factor players.

Crazy that's the same formula that Vegas uses.

Herman Cain · « **Reply #30 on:** November 13, 2018, 08:34:47 PM »

Quote from: MUeagle1090 on November 13, 2018, 08:31:50 PM

Crazy that's the same formula that Vegas uses.

Funny how that works out.

Benny B · « **Reply #31 on:** November 13, 2018, 11:45:39 PM »

Quote from: MU82 on November 13, 2018, 07:06:09 PM

Agreed.

But gun at my head -- and given the environment in the U.S. that could happen any time -- I'd bet on the Warrior Eagles.

MU82 · « **Reply #32 on:** November 14, 2018, 08:27:14 AM »

Quote from: Benny B on November 13, 2018, 11:45:39 PM

Thanks, Benny! (Deep bow, acknowledging the thunderous approval)

Floorslapper · « **Reply #33 on:** November 14, 2018, 08:40:58 AM »

Line is at MU +5.5 right now on sportsbook.ag

Eye · « **Reply #34 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:07:02 AM »

Opened at 5 1/2 and has stayed at 5 1/2 were I do my shopping.

WarriorDad · « **Reply #35 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:15:40 AM »

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on November 13, 2018, 05:06:50 PM

Indiana by 4 or 5 makes sense to me. 8 seems crazy. Despite thinking Indiana should be favored, I have a good feeling. Head says Indiana at home, heart says MU on the road. Hoping heart wins out.

I wouldn't say crazy. The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot. Not that big a stretch.

Benny B · « **Reply #36 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:23:43 AM »

Here's a suggestion:

Next time you're in Nevada, go into a Wm. Hill book and register for an online account. Then you just download their app, and presto, wherever you are in the world, you can get the official Vegas line whether you have $1,000,000.00 or $0.00 in your account.

All this overseas, bovada, dimes, etc. lines are simply garbage. Sometimes you find a whole pizza that someone threw out, but most of the time its just the crusts.

Mr. Nielsen · « **Reply #37 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:34:31 AM »

https://www.docsports.com/college-basketball-lines.html

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #38 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:41:33 AM »

Marquette +3 on Bovada this am. No thanks.

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #39 on:** November 14, 2018, 09:53:52 AM »

Quote from: WarriorDad on November 14, 2018, 09:15:40 AM

I wouldn't say crazy. The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot. Not that big a stretch.

In terms of a betting line? It's a huge stretch

79Warrior · « **Reply #40 on:** November 14, 2018, 10:41:21 AM »

Quote from: WarriorDad on November 14, 2018, 09:15:40 AM

I wouldn't say crazy. The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot. Not that big a stretch.

If you are a gambler a 3 points difference is a big deal.

Babybluejeans · « **Reply #41 on:** November 14, 2018, 10:50:36 AM »

I'm seeing +5.5 at my book.

I assume most of you know this but just to be clear: the lines are NOT designed to be a prediction, but are designed to get the betting dollars 50% on one side and 50% on the other. That means Vegas takes zero risk on the outcome and collects the ~5% juice. That's what Vegas aims to do EVERY SINGLE TIME.

So here, if the line moves to +8, it's not that they're "undervaluing" Marquette, it's simply that dumb IU fans are betting heavy. Meaning Vegas is forced to move the line so the betting evens out. Otherwise they're exposed to IU covering and then they lose lots of money.