Early Line MU +8

[ski44]

NM

[BM1090]

It looks like it opened at +5 and moved to +8 already.

+5 I can understand. +8....not so much. We'll see what it is at tomorrow. IU -4 seems right

[dgies9156]

+8 just means you bet MU all day.

[BM1090]

Will be interested if it changes as more books release their lines. +8 just does not seem right.

I only can find one site that lists a line and that site indicates the line has moved 3 points in 3 hours. Will assume that is inaccurate until I see any known books post a line

[Herman Cain]

Seems reasonable

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'd hammer MU +8. 

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Pound MU at +8 if that's the case. Wonder who bet big on Indiana to move the line that much.

[Windyplayer]

Holy crap. ESPN is showing +8 as well. Wojo has his whiteboard material. Thanks, Vegas!

[wadesworld]

When it seems so obviously wrong you typically end up getting burned.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Can you make bets on Bovada for the next day?  Never been able to figure that out, but I am trying to get in on that +8 before it moves back. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

When it seems so obviously wrong you typically end up getting burned.

Generally, yes. Vegas knows what they're doing.

[🏀]

It's very well likely we have a betting amount descrepancy going on. Looking get the numbers back to even.

[DegenerateDish]

The power ratings I use have MU at -5, so something is way off here. If a book is giving MU points, I’d probably run to the window and take them while you can.

[BM1090]

Holy crap. ESPN is showing +8 as well. Wojo has his whiteboard material. Thanks, Vegas!

ESPN sometimes just uses the first line that comes out, which is sometimes computerized and not one released by the books. As soon as a book releases a line, it will update. Not sure that is the case here but it is possible

[BM1090]

Can you make bets on Bovada for the next day?  Never been able to figure that out, but I am trying to get in on that +8 before it moves back.

Yes. But there is no line on Bovada yet.

[PGsHeroes32]

I got it at -5

[VegasWarrior77]

The consensus Vegas line is -5.5.  I have seen a couple 6s - but nothing higher than that.  Total is 149.

[BM1090]

Indiana -5 or 6 is far more reasonable although I think the true line should be closer to 3.5 or 4. Kenpom also has Indiana by 4.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Indiana by 4 or 5 makes sense to me. 8 seems crazy. Despite thinking Indiana should be favored, I have a good feeling. Head says Indiana at home, heart says MU on the road. Hoping heart wins out.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Yes. But there is no line on Bovada yet.

How? Never been able to figure that out.

[PGsHeroes32]

How? Never been able to figure that out.

Bovada almost always waits til last minute

When it’s saturday and the heart of the season with every team playing, sometimes the lines are not up and ready til like 9 am

[YoungMUFan4]

i'm seeing it as +5.5

[BM1090]

ESPN has updated as the books come out. Line is IU -5.5.

[79Warrior]

Pound MU at +8 if that's the case. Wonder who bet big on Indiana to move the line that much.

Would stay away from this game. Early first true road game in a very hostile environment. Pass

[MU82]

Would stay away from this game. Early first true road game in a very hostile environment. Pass

Agreed.

But gun at my head -- and given the environment in the U.S. that could happen any time -- I'd bet on the Warrior Eagles.

[BM1090]

I've bordered on cautiously optimistic/pessimistic the last two years. I know this is a game we could lose, but I'm all in with this team. F it. We're winning tomorrow.

[tower912]

80-68 IU.     First road game for MU.   Assembly Hall is notoriously difficult to play in.    I thought IU looked quicker against their cupcakes than MU did.   

[Mutaman]

It hit 8.5 for awhile.

In life follow these two rules although sometimes as here, they conflict:

1. Your bookmaker knows more than you do.

2. Always bet the underlay and you will come out ahead.

Warriors at +8.5 is a pretty big underlay I think.

[Herman Cain]

My approach for college basketball is to take the differential in true plus factor players times 4. So add up the plus factor pogo sticks , quality necks and skills guys for each team .

Right now spread is telling us Indiana has between 1-2 more plus factor players.

[BM1090]

My approach for college basketball is to take the differential in true plus factor players times 4. So add up the plus factor pogo sticks , quality necks and skills guys for each team .

Right now spread is telling us Indiana has between 1-2 more plus factor players.

Crazy that's the same formula that Vegas uses.

[Herman Cain]

Crazy that's the same formula that Vegas uses.

Funny how that works out.

[Benny B]

Agreed.

But gun at my head -- and given the environment in the U.S. that could happen any time -- I'd bet on the Warrior Eagles.

[MU82]

Thanks, Benny! (Deep bow, acknowledging the thunderous approval)

[Floorslapper]

Line is at MU +5.5 right now on sportsbook.ag

[Eye]

Opened at 5 1/2 and has stayed at 5 1/2 were I do my shopping.

[WarriorDad]

Indiana by 4 or 5 makes sense to me. 8 seems crazy. Despite thinking Indiana should be favored, I have a good feeling. Head says Indiana at home, heart says MU on the road. Hoping heart wins out.

I wouldn't say crazy.  The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot.   Not that big a stretch.

[Benny B]

Here's a suggestion:

Next time you're in Nevada, go into a Wm. Hill book and register for an online account.  Then you just download their app, and presto, wherever you are in the world, you can get the official Vegas line whether you have $1,000,000.00 or $0.00 in your account.

All this overseas, bovada, dimes, etc. lines are simply garbage.  Sometimes you find a whole pizza that someone threw out, but most of the time its just the crusts.

[Mr. Nielsen]

https://www.docsports.com/college-basketball-lines.html

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Marquette +3 on Bovada this am.  No thanks.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I wouldn't say crazy.  The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot.   Not that big a stretch.

In terms of a betting line? It's a huge stretch

[79Warrior]

I wouldn't say crazy.  The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot.   Not that big a stretch.

If you are a gambler a 3 points difference is a big deal.

[Babybluejeans]

I'm seeing +5.5 at my book.

I assume most of you know this but just to be clear: the lines are NOT designed to be a prediction, but are designed to get the betting dollars 50% on one side and 50% on the other. That means Vegas takes zero risk on the outcome and collects the ~5% juice. That's what Vegas aims to do EVERY SINGLE TIME.

So here, if the line moves to +8, it's not that they're "undervaluing" Marquette, it's simply that dumb IU fans are betting heavy. Meaning Vegas is forced to move the line so the betting evens out. Otherwise they're exposed to IU covering and then they lose lots of money.

[Warrior Code]

In terms of a betting line? It's a huge stretch

If you are a gambler a 3 points difference is a big deal.

This is why I don't gamble.

[Mutaman]

I wouldn't say crazy.  The difference between 5 and 8 is one shot.   Not that big a stretch.

Can I be your bookmaker?

[hdog1017]

I have a feeling that Indiana will get a lot of home cookin'  from the refs. 

[forgetful]

I have a feeling that Indiana will get a lot of home cookin'  from the refs.

I fully expect Howard to have 3 fouls in the first 5-8 minutes.  He will get the Wade in Madison treatment from the refs.

[Newsdreams]

I fully expect Howard to have 3 fouls in the first 5-8 minutes.  He will get the Wade in Madison treatment from the refs.

Wojo will get tossed, hey?

[PGsHeroes32]

Marquette +3 on Bovada this am.  No thanks.

That changed almost immediately to 5.5. Had to of been an error.

The ML has fluctuated between -230 and -250 on Indiana

[Jay Bee]

In for MU +5.5

Let's make dis $

[Slim]

In at 5.5. Let's Go!

[94Warrior]

How did that crazy line work out for everyone? 

I am frustrated enough after a game like this, why would I want to lose money on top of it?  This is why I don't bet.

[Mutaman]

How did that crazy line work out for everyone? 

I am frustrated enough after a game like this, why would I want to lose money on top of it?  This is why I don't bet.

if you think of betting as "losing money" then its good that you don't bet. And if you bet it good not to bet on the team you root for- the heart gets in the way of the head. You have to pick your spots- a line that's too good to be true is usually too good to be true.