G-League to offer $125K to top high school players

[nyg]

1. Great idea. LaVar Ball already came up with it, I wonder if he will demand royalties. I’m sure the G League, with its connection to the NBA, will attract more HS players than the JBA.

2. I thought the NBA was going to end 1-and-done by allowing player to again be eligible for the draft right out of HS.

I thought the same, sort of makes this new initiative somewhat obscure.  Have to wait and see.

[Pakuni]

To clarify why I think it will cost them in long-term earning potential.  The huge benefit of going to a blue-blood is exposure and generation of brand.

That is where the value is for the endorsement deals, is investing in an established brand.  The G-league is never going to generate that exposure and brand-building opportunities.  Instead it is more likely that the big apparel companies hold off on major endorsements deals, because essentially they are betting on the player making it big, with little exposure or benefit in the short-intermediate term.

20-25 years ago this would be a great point. But I think not so much today. Between YouTube, social media, numerous websites hyping high school kids, hundreds of fan message boards talking about prospects, ESPN and other networks showing high school games, etc., the top kids already are known quantities among sports fans long before they ever step foot on a college court.
Zion Williamson has 150K+ Twitter followers. RJ Barrett has more than 35K. These kids don't need Duke to establish their brand. They're establishing their own brand before stepping on campus, and will likely be able to do so even more extensively without fear or violating "amateurism" rules.
And I think you may be underestimating the power of the NBA hype machine. You don't think ESPN and the NBA's other partners will be showing Windy City Bulls highlights of these kids?

Look at HE as an example.  If he had gone this route, he would have never gotten drafted in the lottery and turned it into a big first contract.  He would have been paid $125k, gotten likely little or no endorsement money, and turned it into a career in the G-league making likely near the minimum for the remainder of his career.

Henry wasn't drafted in the lottery and I fail to see how one year of the G-League would have ruined his chances of getting drafted vs one year at Marquette.

[Pakuni]

I thought the same, sort of makes this new initiative somewhat obscure.  Have to wait and see.

As part of this, the NBA is leaving one-and-done in place until at least 2022.

[nyg]

As part of this, the NBA is leaving one-and-done in place until at least 2022.

OK, there you go.  Gives the 125K initiative a three year trial period. 

[Marcus92]

Total attendance for G League games during the 2017-18 season was 1.6 million. With 27 teams and a 50-game schedule, that's an average attendance of less than 2,400 fans per game.

Total attendance for NCAA Division I basketball games during the 2017-18 regular season was 24.5 million. With 351 teams and a total of 5,324 home games (not including the NCAA tournament), that's an average attendance of 4,607 fans per game.

Only 41 G League games (out of 675 total home games, or about 6%) were broadcast nationally. By comparison, around 1,000 regular season Division I basketball games are broadcast nationally each year.

The G League may offer players money. But it doesn't come close to matching the exposure of NCAA Division I basketball -- especially at the major conference level. The difference is magnified even further during the NCAA tournament. Total viewership during March Madness (from the First Four to the Final Four) was more than 97 million.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-sets-records-across-board-historic-17th-season/

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/2019/Attendance.pdf

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2015/03/college-basketball-ratings-viewership-every-game-2014-2015-regular-season-espn-cbs-fox-fs1-nbcsn/

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-04-13/2018-ncaa-tournament-and-final-four-viewership-attendance

[Marcus92]

Without that kind of exposure, there's no way Donte Divincenzo becomes the 17th overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.

[Marcus92]

Then again, he might not be the type of player the G League would be reaching out to. I'll be interested to see how this works.

[GGGG]

Without that kind of exposure, there's no way Donte Divincenzo becomes the 17th overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.

But Donte Divincenzo, as the 124th rated prospect in his class, wouldn't be a target for the G-League anyway.

[RJax55]

But Donte Divincenzo, as the 124th rated prospect in his class, wouldn't be a target for the G-League anyway.

Exactly. I don't think the additional exposure the NCAA can provide will make much of a difference to the pool of players this proposal is targeting.

One thing that would make this proposal better is if players taking the G-league route were eligible for the draft right away. Teams could draft these guys and send them to their affiliate. That way, teams would have an extreme interest in getting them to develop the most during their one G-league year.

[JWags85]

Honestly I don't know. Is there any precedent for AHL or AAA players getting signed with brands?

Does it work that well for MLB minor league ball players?

The casual fan doesn't pay attention to the NHL or MLB drafts.  Of the top 10 picks in the 2017 NHL draft, 3 are currently on NHL rosters.  The stud prospects are usually given more time to develop in the minors or Europe.

MLB is even less.  Even the studs like Harper and Vlad Guerrero Jr spend a few years in the minors.

As for the NBA, the top couple recruiting prospects are household names for basketball fans and almost all of those top 10 picks are right into the league and marketing begins.  If you're talking a kid who is a top 10 pick in next years draft, you absolutely start marketing him as a sports related brand if possible.

[MU82]

Outstanding players who simply do not want to go to college (Brandon Jennings) and outstanding players who cannot make the grade to get into college would benefit from this, especially if they didn't want to go to Europe as Jennings did.

If the 1-and-done rule is eliminated, however, it would be interesting to see how this would work.

[Nukem2]

Outstanding players who simply do not want to go to college (Brandon Jennings) and outstanding players who cannot make the grade to get into college would benefit from this, especially if they didn't want to go to Europe as Jennings did.

If the 1-and-done rule is eliminated, however, it would be interesting to see how this would work.

Suspect that this is just a bridge to 2022 when the NBA lowers its draft age limit. 

[Pakuni]

Without that kind of exposure, there's no way Donte Divincenzo becomes the 17th overall pick of the 2018 NBA Draft.

Are you saying that Divincenzo was the 17th pick because a lot of basketball fans saw him on TV and in arenas?
That's wholly irrelevant.
How many fans saw Luka Doncic in person or on TV? How many saw Frank Ntilikina or Kristaps Porzingis or Emmanuel Mudiay or Giannis Antetokounmpo?
NBA scouts are going to find players wherever they are. They're sure as heck going to find them in an NBA-owned league.

[forgetful]

20-25 years ago this would be a great point. But I think not so much today. Between YouTube, social media, numerous websites hyping high school kids, hundreds of fan message boards talking about prospects, ESPN and other networks showing high school games, etc., the top kids already are known quantities among sports fans long before they ever step foot on a college court.
Zion Williamson has 150K+ Twitter followers. RJ Barrett has more than 35K. These kids don't need Duke to establish their brand. They're establishing their own brand before stepping on campus, and will likely be able to do so even more extensively without fear or violating "amateurism" rules.
And I think you may be underestimating the power of the NBA hype machine. You don't think ESPN and the NBA's other partners will be showing Windy City Bulls highlights of these kids?

Henry wasn't drafted in the lottery and I fail to see how one year of the G-League would have ruined his chances of getting drafted vs one year at Marquette.

You very likely may be right.  But the thing is, part of the hype machine, and twitter followers is based on the fact that the players may go to my favorite Blue Blood. 

When they go the the Windy City Bulls, that no one gives a damn about, they vanish into a bit of obscurity.  Showing highlights of the Windy City Bulls isn't going to bring eyeballs to ESPN, but Big State School X, or Blue-Blood Y that has a legion of fans will. 

They then have to play against grown men, who are fighting for a job in the NBA.  Players like HE would be exposed.  The idea of potential goes away considerably, when they can't guard (or score against) a second string G-league player.  The incentive on drafting them top develop them goes away.  HE is not a first round draft pick if based on G-league production.

Now, if you are dominating the G-league, that may be a different story.  Maybe you get some hype from ESPN, but on average, even top 20 players may not be ready to dominate in the G-league.  ESPN will rather focus on the NCAA, where there is a dedicated fan base, that really doesn't care if a G-league player is better than their star.  They want to see their star on the highlights, and ESPN will always cater to the audience.

[Marcus92]

Are you saying that Divincenzo was the 17th pick because a lot of basketball fans saw him on TV and in arenas?

Not saying that. Divincenzo performed at his absolute best on the biggest stage. It's true that NBA scouts find great talent around the world. But the exposure of the NCAA tournament can help players gain attention across the league they might not otherwise have gotten.

[Marcus92]

Another example that comes to mind is Derrick Williams of Arizona in 2011. Even before the tournament, he was already recognized as a great player (Pac-10 Player of the Year, 2nd team AP All-American). But Williams took his game to another level in March. After scoring 32 points against Duke, his draft stock skyrocketed and he ended up being the 2nd overall pick.

[DegenerateDish]

And yet kids who are at best fringe draft candidates (like Newman, Rawle Alkins, Cliff Alexander, the Harrisons, Isaiah Briscoe, etc.) leave bluebloods early every year.

You're right on, no argument here. I think it really comes down to the kid and his situation, the advice he's getting, and the pros/cons of college vs the G-League.

I say this as a 40 year old guy with a job, but Kansas's travel was premium first class. Their set up in Lawrence is out of this world nice. The school work is obviously the burden for someone, if you're going to Kansas/Duke, you clearly have NBA aspirations. At some point, and in this scenario it's going to have to be early, one will have to weigh the impact of playing against older guys, some who have been in the league, all trying to get to the league, versus the college developmental experience and all that comes with it. Does the allure of the $125k make a bigger difference and grinding it out in Sioux Falls against a guy who's been up/down in the league seem appealing? Money is money, and $1 today versus $1 a year from now is always worth more, I totally get it.

I think it's a specific player type that would take this, Mudiay pops up in my mind. I think a kid would have to really self scout themselves, and weigh the options here in this proposal. The elephant in the room is that the shoe companies have every incentive to still get these kids to college (into a school with their brand).

[Pakuni]

You're right on, no argument here. I think it really comes down to the kid and his situation, the advice he's getting, and the pros/cons of college vs the G-League.

Completely agree it's going to be a case-by-case situation. Some top-rated prospects - the aforementioned Willamson, for example, or maybe an Andre Drummond, would not be stunted by developing in the G.
On the other hand, a kid like Jon Scheyer or Justin Jackson would get murdered down there.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

20-25 years ago this would be a great point. But I think not so much today. Between YouTube, social media, numerous websites hyping high school kids, hundreds of fan message boards talking about prospects, ESPN and other networks showing high school games, etc., the top kids already are known quantities among sports fans long before they ever step foot on a college court.
Zion Williamson has 150K+ Twitter followers. RJ Barrett has more than 35K. These kids don't need Duke to establish their brand. They're establishing their own brand before stepping on campus, and will likely be able to do so even more extensively without fear or violating "amateurism" rules.
And I think you may be underestimating the power of the NBA hype machine. You don't think ESPN and the NBA's other partners will be showing Windy City Bulls highlights of these kids?

Henry wasn't drafted in the lottery and I fail to see how one year of the G-League would have ruined his chances of getting drafted vs one year at Marquette.

Not an apples to apples comparison, but Darius Bazely, 5-star SF who decided to go to the G-League this season has less than 5K twitter followers. Now, he doesn't have the transcendent talent that Barrett and Williamson do, but I think it's fair to say that Duke helped those two in the follower department.

I also now feel silly for looking up how many twitter followers some 17 year olds have.

[DegenerateDish]

I think there's a lot of intended and unintended consequences with this idea as well.

You could wind up with the G League as a competitive recruiter against your school. I don't know if they would actively recruit, their criteria for who the "select" players would be to get these contract offers is still a little unclear. Either way, they'll be passively always recruiting against whoever those select players are going to be. It's a really interesting dynamic.

The biggest benefit to the NBA and teams is getting as much data (physical/mental/emotional) on a kid as early as possible. The how/where players are assigned would really be very interesting. For hypothetical purposes, we'll use Collin Sexton as an example. As a potential lottery pick, whichever G League team gets him would know everything about his makeup for a season. Let's say Sexton plays great in the G League, and the NBA team who's affiliate he played for, then passes on him in the 7th spot of the lottery. Logically, other NBA teams would probably react as "WTF, Cleveland had him in the G League, and is passing on him now?". His stock (one would think) would plummet. Obviously other teams would do their due diligence, but the greater point being, the information collected by the NBA franchise would be of tremendous value.

I'm sure I'm missing some other obvious questions, but this will be interesting to say the least.

[brewcity77]

To clarify why I think it will cost them in long-term earning potential.  The huge benefit of going to a blue-blood is exposure and generation of brand.

That is where the value is for the endorsement deals, is investing in an established brand.

This is exactly right. It isn't just about these guys wearing shoe brands as pros, it's about marketing the school as well. Nike wants Duke to thrive, Adidas wants Kansas to thrive, Under Armour wants Maryland to thrive because that's great brand exposure to huge fanbases. None of those shoe companies give a rat's ass about the Fort Wayne Mad Ants.

My guess is most of these guys will continue to go the college route because that's where the money is and that's where you can viably start to build a brand. The most likely change is this will lead to open payment of players in college basketball.

[martyconlonontherun]

I thought the same, sort of makes this new initiative somewhat obscure.  Have to wait and see.

The one and done thing isn't for like 4 years. This will be immediate next year.

[martyconlonontherun]

Total attendance for G League games during the 2017-18 season was 1.6 million. With 27 teams and a 50-game schedule, that's an average attendance of less than 2,400 fans per game.

Total attendance for NCAA Division I basketball games during the 2017-18 regular season was 24.5 million. With 351 teams and a total of 5,324 home games (not including the NCAA tournament), that's an average attendance of 4,607 fans per game.

Only 41 G League games (out of 675 total home games, or about 6%) were broadcast nationally. By comparison, around 1,000 regular season Division I basketball games are broadcast nationally each year.

The G League may offer players money. But it doesn't come close to matching the exposure of NCAA Division I basketball -- especially at the major conference level. The difference is magnified even further during the NCAA tournament. Total viewership during March Madness (from the First Four to the Final Four) was more than 97 million.

https://gleague.nba.com/news/nba-g-league-sets-records-across-board-historic-17th-season/

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/m_basketball_RB/2019/Attendance.pdf

http://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2015/03/college-basketball-ratings-viewership-every-game-2014-2015-regular-season-espn-cbs-fox-fs1-nbcsn/

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-04-13/2018-ncaa-tournament-and-final-four-viewership-attendance

That is in the past though. If you shift the top 10 prospects from college to the G-League the numbers will change a little. The NBA also introduced 2-ways last years (where the rules need a little tweaking) and there is potential for expanding rosters to have a true minor league system (Aka more long-term control of players).

The real fundamental shift will be if they do steal away the top prospects, college is no longer a breeding ground for future stars. In the past, guys like Wade who you routed for in college became the next generation of NBA stars. If this strategy works, fans like me will stop watching college basketball. Only the Alumni pissing contest fans will be entertained when the talent is so watered down without the high-end talent.

[brewcity77]

That is in the past though. If you shift the top 10 prospects from college to the G-League the numbers will change a little.

I doubt it. A few junkies will tune in, but the college following comes from years of fan loyalty. It'll take a long time, decades if ever, before anyone cares about the G League.

For comparison, look at the baseball minors. How many people tuned in for Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant when they were in the minors?

[Newsdreams]

I think the problem is that the biggest risk will be on the HS kid. For the NBA team a $125k rental is pennies of an investment for a potential diamond while the kid might miss on a couple of millions if he doesn't deliver as expected in G-League and I don't think endorsements will bring big bucks at G-League level and I sure as hell hope the NBA team includes insurance for them (I have not read so maybe yes?) in case of career ending injury.