Nice MUBB Preview

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/marquette-basketball-preview-2019

Of all the previews that I have read so far, I think this was one of the most well done. They had one nice tidbit that I think got at the heart of why many are convinced that the defense the past two years has mostly been a personnel issue, not a scheme issue.

Aside from the steals, though, the benefit of plugging in his 6'3 size in place of 5'10 meatball Andrew Rowsey is a massive upgrade in itself. When Markus Howard played without Rowsey last year, Marquette's defense was Actually, Legitimately Good, but when they played together, hellfire rained down:

Howard on, Rowsey off: 472 total defensive possessions, 0.95 dPPP
Rowsey on, Howard off: 522 total defensive possessions, 1.05 dPPP
Rowsey + Howard together: 1,439 total defensive possessions. 1.17 dPPP
Neither: 59 total defensive possessions. 1.32 dPPP

I truly believe replacing an abysmal defender (Rowsey) with a very good defender (JC) is going to result in a much steeper improvement to the defense than many realize.

[Its DJOver]

Surprised that "neither" defense was as bad as it was. Combination of small sample size and the fact that if neither were in, it was likely garbage time maybe?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Surprised that "neither" defense was as bad as it was. Combination of small sample size and the fact that if neither were in, it was likely garbage time maybe?

I think you hit the nail on the head. Those 59 possessions with neither on the floor represented around 2% of all our defensive possessions. That's not even a single games worth of defensive possessions. I'd be willing to bet that over 75% of those came in garbage time.

[Nukem2]

Seriously doubt Wojo is on the hot seat entering this upcoming season.  Otherwise, a good summmary.

[mileskishnish72]

Yeah, Rowsey was a “meatball” on D. At the other end he was chateaubriand.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Seriously doubt Wojo is on the hot seat entering this upcoming season.  Otherwise, a good summmary.

Have you read Scoop?

[brewcity77]

Good article, thanks for sharing.

Surprised that "neither" defense was as bad as it was. Combination of small sample size and the fact that if neither were in, it was likely garbage time maybe?

I thought that too. Neither when guys like Marotta and Lelito are out there definitely isn't lockdown.

[tower912]

I am glad they threw that statistic in there.  I remember seeing  it last year and it is one of the reasons I believe the defense will be markedly improved.  Chartouny for Rowsey by itself will improve the defense.   Morrow by himself is another.  Having a long, deep, experienced team is a third.  People are going to complain because people like to complain, but the defense will be better.

[mu03eng]

Been noddling on this for a while and am finally ready to commit....at a minimum we will have a top 50 defense this coming season. Considering we're 125+ coming into the season that's a huge leap and with a top 10 offense that should be plenty to have a very good year

[GGGG]

I am glad they threw that statistic in there.  I remember seeing  it last year and it is one of the reasons I believe the defense will be markedly improved.  Chartouny for Rowsey by itself will improve the defense.   Morrow by himself is another.  Having a long, deep, experienced team is a third.  People are going to complain because people like to complain, but the defense will be better.

I think the defense will be better, but the offense will be slightly worse.  There's margin for error there resulting in a net gain.

[muwarrior69]

Does anyone think having us #26 out of his top 40 is optimistic?

[mu03eng]

Does anyone think having us #26 out of his top 40 is optimistic?

I think it's actually appropriate for preseason but pessimistic for where I think this team actually finishes. I'm anticipating they will be flirting with a top 15 ranking through conference season.

[BossplayaOtto]

I think it's actually appropriate for preseason but pessimistic for where I think this team actually finishes. I'm anticipating they will be flirting with a top 15 ranking through conference season.

 I hope you are right!

[tower912]

Exactly.  I am not worried about preseason rankings.  If this team is what we think it is, AND they start out hot, the rankings will take care of themselves. 

[We R Final Four]

I think the defense will be better, but the offense will be slightly worse.  There's margin for error there resulting in a net gain.

Yes. Huge jump in defense....would be shocked if we have a top 10 offense to go along with that.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think the defense will be better, but the offense will be slightly worse.  There's margin for error there resulting in a net gain.

Agreed but I think we will still have one of the best offenses in the country,  top 20ish.  I'm not sure if I'm ready to say we will have a top 50 defense like Eng,  but I think top 75 is reasonable.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yes. Huge jump in defense....would be shocked if we have a top 10 offense to go along with that.

Wondering why you think this?  Based on Wojo's history I would be shocked in a huge jump in defense and would be shocked, with this roster composition, if we are not Top 10 in offense. I can see an improvement on defense in the rankings, but a huge one would be a shock. I also don't see your shock prognostication on offense where everyone returns but Drew and Harry.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Wondering why you think this?  Based on Wojo's history I would be shocked in a huge jump in defense and would be shocked, with this roster composition, if we are not Top 10 in offense. I can see an improvement on defense in the rankings, but a huge one would be a shock. I also don't see your shock prognostication on offense where everyone returns but Drew and Harry.

1. Read the quote in the first post. No Rowdy = addition by subtraction on defense

2. JC = Addition by addition on defense

3. Wojo had average defenses his first two seasons.  It wasn't until Rowdy and Howard joined up that the defenses tanked.

I think there is strong evidence that this is much more of a personnel issue than a scheme issue.

[barfolomew]

I think it's actually appropriate for preseason but pessimistic for where I think this team actually finishes. I'm anticipating they will be flirting with a top 15 ranking through conference season.

I also think it's about right for the preseason (maybe a tad high), but don't share your optimism for end of season rankings.
If we go 4-2 or better in our "big six" non-con games, we'll be ranked, but 3-3 or worse and we probably won't, and I don't know if there's enough meat in conference this year to move up a lot, sans some Nova upsets.
We definitely have a good chance to end as one of the top 25 teams in that case, just don't know about being ranked in the polls.

[Its DJOver]

Man, I thought that I was optimistic in hoping for a top 150 defense next year.  If we're into double digits as some suggest, a lot of the traditional pessimists may go missing next Spring.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Base case should be in the ballpark of last year's Xavier (#15 overall / #8 O / #57 D) and Wichita St. (#21 overall / #4 O / #111 D). Easily upside into the top 10 overall range (something like a KU #5 O /#47 D from last year). Those teams ended up with a 1 & 4 seed (flamed out eraly but still). If I had to put money on it right now I think 5 seed is the worst we do.

Obviously downside into the 25-30 range if the offesne falls off a bit sans Rowsey and the D fails to improve nearly as much as expected (or rampant injury woes), but I think that scenario is a lot less likely than the upside case. This should be a very exciting season with a ton of wins, especially with the BEast down a bit.

[muwarrior69]

1. Read the quote in the first post. No Rowdy = addition by subtraction on defense

2. JC = Addition by addition on defense

3. Wojo had average defenses his first two seasons.  It wasn't until Rowdy and Howard joined up that the defenses tanked.

I think there is strong evidence that this is much more of a personnel issue than a scheme issue.

I guess the big question is will our guys be able to match the physicality, quickness and athleticism of our Big East brethren. I know my eye test does not mean squat but that is why I think our defense has suffered the last two seasons; our guys could not execute what Wojo expected them to do. Will find out if that has changed this season. At least this team will have some upper classmen leadership this season.

[brewcity77]

FWIW, going by Pomeroy's numbers, 0.95 ppp would've ranked us between 15-28 in the nation (depending on the next decimal) last year and top-50 in any of the past 5 years.

Regardless, a top-50 defense would exceed my personal hopes and along with our offense have us as one of the better teams in the country. Offensively, I don't think there will be that much dropoff despite the loss of Rowsey. Adding a distributor should only help Markus and Sam while the players whose roles should increase -- Cain, Elliott, and Anim -- were still fairly efficient players. I think the offense will be about the same and possibly be even better than last year.

[Silkk the Shaka]

FWIW, going by Pomeroy's numbers, 0.95 ppp would've ranked us between 15-28 in the nation (depending on the next decimal) last year and top-50 in any of the past 5 years.

Regardless, a top-50 defense would exceed my personal hopes and along with our offense have us as one of the better teams in the country. Offensively, I don't think there will be that much dropoff despite the loss of Rowsey. Adding a distributor should only help Markus and Sam while the players whose roles should increase -- Cain, Elliott, and Anim -- were still fairly efficient players. I think the offense will be about the same and possibly be even better than last year.

Agreed, which is a tantalizing prospect

[bilsu]

Does anyone think having us #26 out of his top 40 is optimistic?

I think it is optimistic, if Heldt and Anim are still starting when the Big East season starts. My optimistic view is that neither will be starting and we will be better than 26. I want to believe the newcomers are good enough to change the starting line up.