Full Home Non-Conference Schedule Announced

[Cooby Snacks]

Reminds me a little bit of the 13-14 schedule, where there were 6 top 50 opponents and 7 from the garbage heap (including 4 sub-300s). Pomeroy non-conference SOS rank ended up at 205.

This is nowhere near the self-inflicted kneecapping of 15-16, but still not totally great.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

This isn't how SOS works. Scheduling #353 (which Southern has a good chance of being) does as much damage to your SOS as scheduling #1 does to help it. You can't just look at the top teams on the schedule and ignore the bottom ones. It SHOULD be the way you are describing but that's not how RPI and SOS work. Also, most Big 6 teams will play between 4-7 "loseable/winnable" games. I don't know of any Big 6 teams that will only play 1 or 2 loseable non-conference games and don't think there will be more than a couple who only play 3.

I fully know how it works.  And u clearly over estimate the number of top games other conferences teams play.  Last year our 3rd and 4th toughest non con games were vermont n georgia. And we also played some 335 type teams yet our sos ended up as 25th hardest in the country.  Once again picking the fly S#it out of the pepper.  Same complaints and hand weinging last year and we had #25.  Schedule is much harder this year and people still complain.  Schedule is very good.  SOS is the least of this teams concerns.  One could easily argue they didnt need to make it this hard.  Many coaches would look at it and be glad its not theirs

[GoldenWarrior11]

Looks like we really got affected by that 4th NIT game that couldn't get scheduled.  Anyone have any info on that?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I fully know how it works.  And u clearly over estimate the number of top games other conferences teams play.

Show me. Show me what Big 6 programs scheduled 1 or 2 losable games last season as you claim. I can think of Georgetown and that's it. From the Big East last year:

Butler: 6 tough, 2 sub-300
Creighton: 5 tough, 3 sub-300
DePaul: 5 tough, 3 sub-300
Georgetown: 1 tough, 5 sub-300
Seton Hall: 7 tough, 0 sub-300
Providence: 7 tough, 2 sub-300
St. John's: 7 tough, 1 sub-300
Villanova: 5 tough, 2 sub-300
Xavier: 8 tough, 0 sub-300

Guess who had the toughest non-conference SOS? Villanova, Their non-conference SOS was #12, despite having less tough games than anyone else in conference (besides Georgetown's embarrassment of a schedule). How did they do it? Strategically scheduling a whole bunch of middle of the pack teams to make their computer numbers stronger.

Last year our 3rd and 4th toughest non con games were vermont n georgia. And we also played some 335 type teams yet our sos ended up as 25th hardest in the country.  Once again picking the fly S#it out of the pepper.  Same complaints and hand weinging last year and we had #25.  Schedule is much harder this year and people still complain.  Schedule is very good.  SOS is the least of this teams concerns.  One could easily argue they didnt need to make it this hard.  Many coaches would look at it and be glad its not theirs

Marquette did not end up with the #25 SOS last season, it was #30. It was also #105 in non-conference SOS. It also ended with an RPI of 60 which is the much more important number. And we scheduled 7 losable games (Purdue, VCU, Wichita State, LSU, Georgia, Vermont, and @Wisconsin). Now the 6 this year are significantly better than 7 last year, but last year we only had two bad opponents dragging us down (Chicago State and American). This year we could have 4 sub 300 opponents (BC, UTEP, Presbyterian, and Southern). Last year's schedule was better from an RPI perspective. We have a much better team this year so hopefully it doesn't matter. As long as we go 10-3 or better in the non-conference it should be a non-issue.

[79Warrior]

Show me. Show me what Big 6 programs scheduled 1 or 2 losable games last season as you claim. I can think of Georgetown and that's it. From the Big East last year:

Butler: 6 tough, 2 sub-300
Creighton: 5 tough, 3 sub-300
DePaul: 5 tough, 3 sub-300
Georgetown: 1 tough, 5 sub-300
Seton Hall: 7 tough, 0 sub-300
Providence: 7 tough, 2 sub-300
St. John's: 7 tough, 1 sub-300
Villanova: 5 tough, 2 sub-300
Xavier: 8 tough, 0 sub-300

Guess who had the toughest non-conference SOS? Villanova, Their non-conference SOS was #12, despite having less tough games than anyone else in conference (besides Georgetown's embarrassment of a schedule). How did they do it? Strategically scheduling a whole bunch of middle of the pack teams to make their computer numbers stronger.

Marquette did not end up with the #25 SOS last season, it was #30. It was also #105 in non-conference SOS. It also ended with an RPI of 60 which is the much more important number. And we scheduled 7 losable games (Purdue, VCU, Wichita State, LSU, Georgia, Vermont, and @Wisconsin). Now the 6 this year are significantly better than 7 last year, but last year we only had two bad opponents dragging us down (Chicago State and American). This year we could have 4 sub 300 opponents (BC, UTEP, Presbyterian, and Southern). Last year's schedule was better from an RPI perspective. We have a much better team this year so hopefully it doesn't matter. As long as we go 10-3 or better in the non-conference it should be a non-issue.

You are 100% correct TAMU.

[Its DJOver]

Since its come up.  2017 SOS from CBS and TR

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/sos

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Question: How can the two services have discrepancies as large as they do?  MU from 31 to 25 isn't huge but Butler from 8 to 20 or Providence from 29 to 7?   

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

You are 100% correct TAMU.

As usual. Great info, TAMU.

MU has the making of a fantastic schedule, but the last handful of games announced today are pretty disappointing. 

This team should be good enough that computer numbers aren't going to matter.  But if we get off to a slower start than we we'd like 4-5 non-con losses, and end up 9-9 or 10-8 in the Big East, we're going to be kicking ourselves again for playing a handful of terrible teams that will undoubtedly hurt our numbers.

[jsglow]

You guys worry too much. We're fine.

[Cooby Snacks]

Since its come up.  2017 SOS from CBS and TR

https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/rankings/sos

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other

Question: How can the two services have discrepancies as large as they do?  MU from 31 to 25 isn't huge but Butler from 8 to 20 or Providence from 29 to 7?

Different metrics. RPI is based more on opponents’ win/loss records and while I’m not certain what Team Rankings is about, I’d guess theirs is derived from team efficiency stats.

Also, in PC’s case, even though it’s a 22-spot gap between the two, overall that’s only a 6% difference considering there are ~350 D1 teams.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

You guys worry too much. We're fine.

Exactly what i said

[Herman Cain]

Every year I track the Big East None Conference games closely . I like to see as many Big East teams as possible with double digit non conference victories . That sets everyone up for success.

If the rest of the conference does well, I feel if we can get double digit in Non conference and double digit conference wins we are in good position.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Exactly what i said

Glow said it better

[Jay Bee]

Guess who had the toughest non-conference SOS? Villanova, Their non-conference SOS was #12, despite having less tough games than anyone else in conference (besides Georgetown's embarrassment of a schedule). How did they do it? Strategically scheduling a whole bunch of middle of the pack teams to make their computer numbers stronger.

Errr... for Selection Sunday NonConf SOS I had Nova at #46... which was not the "best" of BEast teams.

(Their overall SOS was #12).

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Errr... for Selection Sunday NonConf SOS I had Nova at #46... which was not the "best" of BEast teams.

(Their overall SOS was #12).

I use Warren Nolan which I have found to usually be accurate. According to that site Nova's overall SOS was #5 and non-conference was #12. Now what I'm not sure and may have missed was if Warren Nolan factors the postseason into those numbers.

[Jay Bee]

I use Warren Nolan which I have found to usually be accurate. According to that site Nova's overall SOS was #5 and non-conference was #12. Now what I'm not sure and may have missed was if Warren Nolan factors the postseason into those numbers.

Those weren’t their postseason #’s either. But, closer. Obviously using postseason wouldn’t make sense in the context of this thread’s discussion.

(My source: NCAA.com reports — which, btw I have found errors on before and had them fix.. but in this case, perhaps your source is measuring something other than RPI NC SOS)

[brewcity77]

Bethune Cookman isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. They might be sub-300, but look at their conference opponents. T-Rank projects them with a winning conference record and the 5th best team in their conference. Is it what I wanted from the NIT Tip-Off? Definitely not, but they project to be a plus for RPI if the other teams in their league are worse than they are.

We go through this every year, but it bears repeating. Opponent RPI rank has nothing to do with your own RPI rank. Low rank teams with winning records can be better than higher rank teams with losing records.

Presbyterian is a disappointment. No question about it, especially because the PNIT did a lot better for the other teams in there.

Southern has won double digit games in conference 7 years running, North Dakota, Charleston Southern, and UTEP should be okay. Not as good as it could be, but also not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Southern has won double digit games in conference 7 years running, North Dakota, Charleston Southern, and UTEP should be okay. Not as good as it could be, but also not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.

Gotta look at what those teams have coming back. Southern went through a coaching change and lost their entire starting lineup and most of their recruiting class. Despite being in the SWAC they will likely finish at the bottom of their conference. UTEP also went through a coaching change and lost their entire recruiting class and will likely finish at the bottom of CUSA. North Dakota is moving up from the Big Sky to the Summit this season and looks like they will finish at the bottom of their new conference.

[Mr. Sand-Knit]

Bethune Cookman isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. They might be sub-300, but look at their conference opponents. T-Rank projects them with a winning conference record and the 5th best team in their conference. Is it what I wanted from the NIT Tip-Off? Definitely not, but they project to be a plus for RPI if the other teams in their league are worse than they are.

We go through this every year, but it bears repeating. Opponent RPI rank has nothing to do with your own RPI rank. Low rank teams with winning records can be better than higher rank teams with losing records.

Presbyterian is a disappointment. No question about it, especially because the PNIT did a lot better for the other teams in there.

Southern has won double digit games in conference 7 years running, North Dakota, Charleston Southern, and UTEP should be okay. Not as good as it could be, but also not nearly as bad as some are making it out to be.

Brew you know nothing that you are talking about. TAMU is the academic that is smarter than everyone else, if you dont believe me just ask him. 
You are correct our schedule is more than fine.  We will again have one of the better SOS in the country when its all said and done.  TAMU making a mountain out of a molehill, win 21 total games n 10 in BE n SOS no matter

[brewcity77]

Gotta look at what those teams have coming back. Southern went through a coaching change and lost their entire starting lineup and most of their recruiting class. Despite being in the SWAC they will likely finish at the bottom of their conference. UTEP also went through a coaching change and lost their entire recruiting class and will likely finish at the bottom of CUSA. North Dakota is moving up from the Big Sky to the Summit this season and looks like they will finish at the bottom of their new conference.

I do that every year, every time a new opponent is announced. Southern went the JUCO route because of those losses. I mentioned that weeks ago and think they have a couple additions that will contribute immediately.

I like Rodney Terry as a coach and he kept the four most important players at UTEP that didn't graduate. Admittedly, they will be much better in 2019-20 once their transfers are eligible. This year will largely come down to how they adjust to the new system and how well they schedule in non-conference. It won't all be Arizona and Marquette.

North Dakota projects as a middle of the league team in the Summit. Crandall is a big loss but they still return 3 starters and 2 reserves that played close to starter minutes.

I don't think it's as bad as you make it out to be. Presbyterian is a gut punch, but this doesn't look like the days of 5-6 sub-300 opponents. More like 2-3 with another few in the 200-275 range. It's not ideal, but it's not a disaster either.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Brew you know nothing that you are talking about. TAMU is the academic that is smarter than everyone else, if you dont believe me just ask him. 
You are correct our schedule is more than fine.  We will again have one of the better SOS in the country when its all said and done.  TAMU making a mountain out of a molehill, win 21 total games n 10 in BE n SOS no matter

The only mountain anyone has made is how big of a deal you made someone disagreeing with you out to be.

Your last sentence is correct. Of course to win 21 total games with 10 in the Big East would required us to go 11-2 in our non-con. I think we can do that but its not a given. If we were to go say 9-4 in non-con, with our best wins coming against a weak Louisville squad and Buffalo.....we would have to do some major damage in conference to make up for it. Damage we wouldn't have to do if we had better cupcakes on the schedule.

Again, no one saying this is an awful schedule or that we won't make the tournament because of it. Just pointing out that it presents some potential challenges to computer numbers.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I do that every year, every time a new opponent is announced. Southern went the JUCO route because of those losses. I mentioned that weeks ago and think they have a couple additions that will contribute immediately.

I like Rodney Terry as a coach and he kept the four most important players at UTEP that didn't graduate. Admittedly, they will be much better in 2019-20 once their transfers are eligible. This year will largely come down to how they adjust to the new system and how well they schedule in non-conference. It won't all be Arizona and Marquette.

North Dakota projects as a middle of the league team in the Summit. Crandall is a big loss but they still return 3 starters and 2 reserves that played close to starter minutes.

I don't think it's as bad as you make it out to be. Presbyterian is a gut punch, but this doesn't look like the days of 5-6 sub-300 opponents. More like 2-3 with another few in the 200-275 range. It's not ideal, but it's not a disaster either.

Sorry Brew, check again. Southern lost a bunch of commits due to the coaching change. They are only bringing in two JUCOs, one of whom wasn't even a starter at the JUCO level, a two star freshman, and a grad transfer who averaged 1.3 points a game for Morgan State. T-ranks projects them as the #352 team in the nation...out of 353.

UTEP lost 7/11 of their rotation players from a team that won 10 games and replaces them with a bunch of freshman who aren't ranked by major recruiting services. They literally only have 8 scholarship players available, half of them freshmen. It's going to be a rough year for them.

North Dakota may be okay but they only won 12 games last season against worse competition in the Big Sky. Only two teams in the summit finished below them in KenPom last season (Western Illinois and Omaha) and I think its likely they stay towards the bottom. Less sure on that one though, sometimes losing a high usage player like Crandall can lead to other players stepping up in surprising ways.

[brewcity77]

UTEP lost 4 guys to graduation. No coach was bringing them back. The other three were the back end of that rotation. Gilyard, Thomas, Osborne, and Magee were the four players eligible to return that played the most on last year's team. So while they don't have experienced depth, most of their starting lineup will be returning players that played significant minutes.

And it sounds like glass half empty when you cite T-Rank to justify why Southern will be bad but ignore where T-Rank has North Dakota.

[muguru]

You know how MU can easily improve their RPI, regardless of their schedule?? Win your home games(and don't lose to DePaul)...it's really that simple. That's a big reason their RPI was as low as it was last year, regardless of how tough their Non con schedule ended up being. For RPI purposes, losing at home KILLS you, regardless if it's Nova, or Bethune Cookman...It's time MU regains a true home court advantage, something that has been missing under Wojo.

[GGGG]

North Dakota projects as a middle of the league team in the Summit.

As a side note, I didn't realize until reading this sentence that North Dakota moved from the Big Sky to the Summit.  Makes a lot of sense for them.

[GGGG]

You know how MU can easily improve their RPI, regardless of their schedule?? Win your home games(and don't lose to DePaul)...it's really that simple. That's a big reason their RPI was as low as it was last year, regardless of how tough their Non con schedule ended up being. For RPI purposes, losing at home KILLS you, regardless if it's Nova, or Bethune Cookman...It's time MU regains a true home court advantage, something that has been missing under Wojo.

Ultimately this is correct.  If this season comes down to strength of schedule to determine if they make the tournament, it is ultimately a disappointment.  And yeah I know that it also comes into play with seeding, but I don't think we are talking about huge swings in seeding here.

My expectation is that they go undefeated at home non conference.  A KSU loss would be understandable, but a disappointment.  MU should win the rest.