Brewers and Cubs chances in NL Central and beyond - breakdown

[auburnmarquette]

Alright all - I'm usually down the block Hanging in the Al but wandered down the road to The Superbar. I've been using vacation to break down the hitting, pitching and fielding in the MLB and my breakdown of the NL Central is here if anyone has feedback. Obviously this system isn't as developed as www.valueaddbasketball.com, but does have a little methodology to it.

http://www.pudnersports.com/2018/06/cubs-wish-list-elite-pitcher-to-replace.html

Chicago (15.0 of 20) - While the three elite teams all appear to be in the AL in the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, the Cubs are strong in all four areas that they could contend and match up pretty closely if they make the World Series. If the Cubs can get another top starter or two like Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB), they could truly be a contender.     

Batters (6.9 of 10) - The Cubs stayed pat with a strong line-up.     

Starters (3.6 of 5) - With the loss of Jake Arrieta to the Phillies, the Cubs might need to add Tyson Ross (SD) or Chris Archer (TB) before the trade deadline to truly have the elite rotation to potentially go all the way.  - The gamble assuming Tyler Chatwood would pitch well making the move from the altitude of Colorado to Wrigley, and the rotation is solid but not quite elite. If Yu Darvish comes back strong once off DL it will help as well.             

Relievers (2.0 of 3) - Adding Steve Cishek from Tampa Bay was a big addition to a pen that already included Brandon Morrow and can certainly shut an opponent down for at least a couple of innings.

Fielding (1.8 of 2) - Contender for the best fielders in baseball with Jason Heyward in RF, and Anthony Rizzo (1b), Ben Zobrist (2b) and Addison Russell (ss) all gold glove nominees.

Milwaukee (13.3 of 20) - On paper, the Brewers made substantial moves to improve the line-up, starting pitchers and relievers - and the great defensive improvement in the outfield helps make them a legit playoff contender. 

rest of story ....

http://www.pudnersports.com/2018/06/cubs-wish-list-elite-pitcher-to-replace.html

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

What do you do with a guy like Montgomery who started the season as a reliever but has arguably been the third best starter in the rotation since Darvish went down?

[auburnmarquette]

Good question - to keep myself sane I mainly looked at players who were added last year or so far this year - but as for the overall ratings of the starters and relievers I did base it on how they look now on paper and after qualitating their overall defense (including how much are great fielders helping the pitchers) I do look at how many quality starts were made as a starting point for dividing the overall credit between starters and relievers.

[Benny B]

Help me understand the methodology a bit here... specifically the magnitude of effect (BTW - not looking for exact answers here, "from-the-hip" is sufficient)

1) How much of an impact can one player have on the numbers?  For example, if Mike Trout was traded, how much would the Angels' batters rating drop?  A few points?  A point?  A couple tenths?

2) Give me an idea of the diminishing returns on the add... for example, how much would the Brewers batters rating jump with the addition of Trout vs. how much would the Cubs batters rating jump with the addition of Trout.

3) How is Statis-Pro not an infringement on the Pursue the Pennant card game from the 80's?

[Vander Blue Man Group]

What do you do with a guy like Montgomery who started the season as a reliever but has arguably been the third best starter in the rotation since Darvish went down?

He won't keep up this level of success - some regression is coming.  That being said it would be extremely hard to remove him from the rotation after how he has performed. 

If everyone is healthy, I have no problem going to a 6-man rotation for a while, although maybe that can throw off the routine of some guys. 

I'm not sure if Chatwood has options left.  His control has never been this bad and the quality of his stuff is really, really good so I don't want to give up on him.  If he has an option and is amenable to it I wouldn't mind a quick trip to the minors to work on things.  Of course this assumes Darvish is healthy. 

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. 

Getting both Edwards and Morrow healthy is key right now as well.