Is next season's schedule too advanced for our talent?

[PorkysButthole]

With expectations through the roof next season and consensus that it's a make or break year for WOJO, I'm curious if anyone out there shares Porky's concerns that the non con schedule is getting ahead of our talent and might be too ambitious.  SOS is obviously very important but only to the extent that you can win at least 40% of those games. SOS without W's is useless and Porky is not buying that this roster is as talented as we all want it to be and on the precipice of consistently being a Top 25 program.  The coaching staff as it's currently configured doesn't give Porky much confidence either but is hoping talent will overcome the staff's deficiencies.  Nothing would make Porky happier than to be dead wrong about this come next March but recent history does not provide much comfort.  Thoughts?

[muwarrior69]

Our defense will determine what kind of season we will have; not the schedule.

[tower912]

No.    Finally, there is size, scoring, and experience.     Wojo clearly thinks that the 2018-19 team has a high ceiling.    He has scheduled accordingly. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Too advanced? No.

The way the non-con schedule is looking, there will be six games of consequence: @Indiana, Kansas/Tennessee/Louisville, Kansas/Tennessee/Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, and Buffalo.

Assuming we win all of our other non-conference games, I think we need to go 3-3 or better in order to meet most scoopers' season expectations. 2-4 could be salvagable with a top 3 finish in the Big East.

Looking at the games, I think we will be favored in 3 and dogs in 3:

Tennessee/Kansas (significant dogs)
at Indiana (slight dogs)
Kansas State (slight dogs)
Buffalo (significant favorites)
Wisconsin (significant favorites)
Louisville (significant favorites)

I am assuming that we will either be matched with Louisville....or that both us and Louisville will lose in the opening round.

If we win the three we are supposed to win and lose the three we are supposed to lose, we will be just fine. If we can find a way to win one of Indiana/Kansas State than I think we are in really good shape. If we beat Tennesse or Kansas....I will be very excited about the rest of the season.

[GooooMarquette]

Does Porky tweet in the third person too?

[Galway Eagle]

Nope. If we hadn't added JC then yes.

[NCMUFan]

We are supposed to be a big time program, so heck no! 

[Lennys Tap]

Too advanced? No.

The way the non-con schedule is looking, there will be six games of consequence: @Indiana, Kansas/Tennessee/Louisville, Kansas/Tennessee/Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, and Buffalo.

Assuming we win all of our other non-conference games, I think we need to go 3-3 or better in order to meet most scoopers' season expectations. 2-4 could be salvagable with a top 3 finish in the Big East.

Looking at the games, I think we will be favored in 3 and dogs in 3:

Tennessee/Kansas (significant dogs)
at Indiana (slight dogs)
Kansas State (slight dogs)
Buffalo (significant favorites)
Wisconsin (significant favorites)
Louisville (significant favorites)

I am assuming that we will either be matched with Louisville....or that both us and Louisville will lose in the opening round.

If we win the three we are supposed to win and lose the three we are supposed to lose, we will be just fine. If we can find a way to win one of Indiana/Kansas State than I think we are in really good shape. If we beat Tennesse or Kansas....I will be very excited about the rest of the season.

In a 6 game stretch where we are "significant favorites" 3x, "significant dogs 1x and "slight dogs" 2x, the most likely outcome (expected) is 4-2. 5-1 is great, 3-3 below expectation though not disastrous. 6-0 would be awesome, 2-4 (or worse) would range from really bad to really, really bad.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

You also schedule based on how strong you think your conference will be.  With a number of Big East schools appearing to take a step back, the non-conference SOS needed to be increased.

[Jay Bee]

You also schedule based on how strong you think your conference will be.  With a number of Big East schools appearing to take a step back, the non-conference SOS needed to be increased.

Need to see the rest of the schedule. They still could schedule some SOS-punishing teams and muck it up.

I do worry about 4 OOC losses. We’ll be fine - just don’t like the optics.

[Goose]

We should know a lot about the squad early on. I have no idea if too advanced, but very happy on an improved NC schedule. Another hats off to Wojo for improving the schedule.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

In a 6 game stretch where we are "significant favorites" 3x, "significant dogs 1x and "slight dogs" 2x, the most likely outcome (expected) is 4-2. 5-1 is great, 3-3 below expectation though not disastrous. 6-0 would be awesome, 2-4 (or worse) would range from really bad to really, really bad.

Why would 4-2 be expected if we are only favored in 3 of the games?

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Why would 4-2 be expected if we are only favored in 3 of the games?

My guess is the expected would work out to be over 3 but less than 4....depending on probabilities for a win of the 3 significant fav and the 1 significant dog

[wadesworld]

We've had teams with 14 losses getting at large bids, teams with 10 losses getting 2 seeds, etc.

You don't have to go 26-4 to get a good seed anymore.  We don't need to be 11-2 heading into the Big East.

[Its DJOver]

I think Wojo has been pretty consistent in his scheduling the last couple of years.  Starting in 15-16 (because that's when the Gavitt games started) we have gone.

15-16
Gavitt (Iowa(L)), Non-conference tourney (Legends Classic(W,W)), Madison(W), high quality mid major (Belmont(L))

16-17
Non-conference tourney (2K classic(L,L)), H+H (Georgia(W)), Madison(L),  high quality mid major (Fresno St(W))

17-18
Gavitt (Purdue(L)), Non-conference tourney (Maui(W,L,W)), H+H (Georgia(L)), Madison(W), high quality mid major (Vermont(W))

18-19
Gavitt (I4), Non-conference tourney (NIT), H+H (K-State), Madison, high quality mid major (Buffalo)

So other than missing a Gavitt game in 16-17, which we couldn't control, and not having a H+H in 15-16 (Was that supposed to be Utah?), we've been consistent in our non-conference.  Obviously some non-conference tourney's are better than others, and K-State is better than Georgia, but that's about it.  Where we could improve IMO is not having as many if any 300+ RPI games.  One should be the max.

*Edit, forgot Vandy in 16-17, makes up for not having a Gavitt game.  We went 3-2 in 15-16, 3-3 in 16-17, and 4-3 in 17-18.  I would be perfectly happy with 4-2 in 18-19

[Silkk the Shaka]

Need to see the rest of the schedule. They still could schedule some SOS-punishing teams and muck it up.

I do worry about 4 OOC losses. We’ll be fine - just don’t like the optics.

Agreed, but barring injuries we should win 12+ conference games, so 4 OOC losses no matta!

[Jay Bee]

Agreed, but barring injuries we should win 12+ conference games, so 4 OOC losses no matta!

Correct. Still a tourney team. We will just have some “fans” panicking and saying stupid crap in December

[Galway Eagle]

I think Wojo has been pretty consistent in his scheduling the last couple of years.  Starting in 15-16 (because that's when the Gavitt games started) we have gone.

15-16
Gavitt (Iowa(L)), Non-conference tourney (Legends Classic(W,W)), Madison(W), high quality mid major (Belmont(L))

16-17
Non-conference tourney (2K classic(L,L)), H+H (Georgia(W)), Madison(L),  high quality mid major (Fresno St(W))

17-18
Gavitt (Purdue(L)), Non-conference tourney (Maui(W,L,W)), H+H (Georgia(L)), Madison(W), high quality mid major (Vermont(W))

18-19
Gavitt (I4), Non-conference tourney (NIT), H+H (K-State), Madison, high quality mid major (Buffalo)

So other than missing a Gavitt game in 16-17, which we couldn't control, and not having a H+H in 15-16 (Was that supposed to be Utah?), we've been consistent in our non-conference.  Obviously some non-conference tourney's are better than others, and K-State is better than Georgia, but that's about it.  Where we could improve IMO is not having as many if any 300+ RPI games.  One should be the max.

*Edit, forgot Vandy in 16-17, makes up for not having a Gavitt game.  We went 3-2 in 15-16, 3-3 in 16-17, and 4-3 in 17-18.  I would be perfectly happy with 4-2 in 18-19

We lost to Belmont in 15-16... if we'd beaten them we may have at least had an nit berth

[LoudMouth]

I am sure this was talked about at some point buuuut if we were to pick, which 2 out of the 3 teams would we want to play for the NIT tip off? I am assuming Kansas and Tennessee for SOS purposes and quality win opportunity (I think Louisville is the USC of last year) or would we want the game we have a better chance of winning knowing our SOS will be solid no matter what? Plus beating Mack one more time

[Its DJOver]

I am sure this was talked about at some point buuuut if we were to pick, which 2 out of the 3 teams would we want to play for the NIT tip off? I am assuming Kansas and Tennessee for SOS purposes and quality win opportunity (I think Louisville is the USC of last year) or would we want the game we have a better chance of winning knowing our SOS will be solid no matter what? Plus beating Mack one more time

Personally I'd like to get Louisville.  Our games are always entertaining, plus I think that would guarantee at least 1-1 in Brooklyn, and if we go 1-1 in Brooklyn and beat I4, I think there's a very good chance that we're ranked when K-State comes to town.

[willie warrior]

With expectations through the roof next season and consensus that it's a make or break year for WOJO, I'm curious if anyone out there shares Porky's concerns that the non con schedule is getting ahead of our talent and might be too ambitious.  SOS is obviously very important but only to the extent that you can win at least 40% of those games. SOS without W's is useless and Porky is not buying that this roster is as talented as we all want it to be and on the precipice of consistently being a Top 25 program.  The coacIhing staff as it's currently configured doesn't give Porky much confidence either but is hoping talent will overcome the staff's deficiencies.  Nothing would make Porky happier than to be dead wrong about this come next March but recent history does not provide much comfort.  Thoughts?

Preliminary excuse.

[jsglow]

Some people are never happy.

[Lennys Tap]

Why would 4-2 be expected if we are only favored in 3 of the games?

If we're 90% likely to win the 3 games where we are big chalks and 10% likely to win the game we are a big dog, that translates into a win expectation of 2.8 (.9+.9+.9+.1).

If we're 40% likely to win the games where we are small dogs, that translates into a win expectation of .8 (.4+.4)

2.8 + .8 = a total win expectation of 3.6 - IOW, closer to 4 than 3. This is not exact, of course, and won't be until we know what the actual odds are in each game, but simple math informs us that not all "expected wins" and "expected losses" are equal. If we open, for example with a pure cupcake our win expectation might be .999. If in the next 2 games we are a 1 point dog our win expectation might be .485 and .485. So even though we were technically dogs in 2 of the three games our win expectation would be 1.969 (.999 + .485 + .485), nowhere near the 1 win your logic would assign us.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we're 90% likely to win the 3 games where we are big chalks and 10% likely to win the game we are a big dog, that translates into a win expectation of 2.8 (.9+.9+.9+.1).

If we're 40% likely to win the games where we are small dogs, that translates into a win expectation of .8 (.4+.4)

2.8 + .8 = a total win expectation of 3.6 - IOW, closer to 4 than 3. This is not exact, of course, and won't be until we know what the actual odds are in each game, but simple math informs us that not all "expected wins" and "expected losses" are equal. If we open, for example with a pure cupcake our win expectation might be .999. If in the next 2 games we are a 1 point dog our win expectation might be .485 and .485. So even though we were technically dogs in 2 of the three games our win expectation would be 1.969 (.999 + .485 + .485), nowhere near the 1 win your logic would assign us.

I wouldn't put any of those games at 90% likely to win (or 90% to lose). I would put it more around 70% which would equal .7+.7+.7+.3+.4+.4 = 3.2. Meaning 3 wins should be expected. Of course both of us are just making up numbers at this point.

Let me rephrase. If we play to expectations in each individual game, we will go 3-3.

[dgies9156]

Big schools play schools.

Mid-majors play mid-majors.

Nobodies play nobodies.

If we're ready for Prime Time, we'll know it by Christmas. If we're not, we'll be looking for Santa to leave us a new coach under the tree.

Candidly, I admire Wojo and the scheduling folks. Short of scheduling Duke, Kentucky and Carolina in back-to-back-to-back games, this is about as tough a challenge as we can expect for the pre-conference season. We look good in the early season and we'll be contending for the conference championship.

If Marquette wants to go uptown, we have to play with the big boys. Pure and simple.