thanks for updates on Value Add

[auburnmarquette]

Sorry to see the discussion and great updates for me on www.valueaddbasketball.com was shut down due to an unrelated back-and-forth, so just want to thank and assure I will be making updates. In particularly Ohio State drops out of the tournament with that update - I put the news by their team ranking at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4:

10.66 lost, 2.35 replacement for losing Keita Bates-Diop to agent drops to 33.14 - just out of tournament puts Clemson in

[auburnmarquette]

couple of Seton Hall updates.

Taurean Thompson's located (thanks) and based on 2017 should project to a very solid 3.40.


on Quincy McKnight - of course he could be better, but 0.13 and 0.02 2 years due to 8th best offensive rating on a very bad team (92.5). Just really weak efficiency against very poor competition so have no numbers to base a higher rating on. That being said a guy who draws fouls, gets steals and dishes assists like he does and is recognized as all conf could be much better - I just need numbers to base a change on.
He was doing this again the NEC, which only had 8 top 1000 players this year. I hope he rises to the level of competition and is awesome, but my adjustments are based on running thousands of four year players who stayed at one school (to avoid distortions) through the typical progression and generally until a player cracks a 1.0 in Value Add he doesn't get to that next level.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Spotted two more for ya, Zhaire Smith has signed with an agent so that likely drops Texas Tech out of the tourney. Elijah Bryant signed as well so BYU who was barely in the tourney is likely way out.

[real chili 83]

Bummer how Hermie derailed your other thread. I’m guessing he got smacked with the banhammer yesterday

John, thanks for all you do for Scoop.

[auburnmarquette]

Spotted two more for ya, Zhaire Smith has signed with an agent so that likely drops Texas Tech out of the tourney. Elijah Bryant signed as well so BYU who was barely in the tourney is likely way out.

Thank you so much this is awesome. This is why I always try to float this stuff on the scoop before I put it out elsewhere because there's so many great spots like this. I will keep updating the Google sheet and then just every several days actually update value-add database.

[auburnmarquette]

Bummer how Hermie derailed your other thread. I’m guessing he got smacked with the banhammer yesterday

John, thanks for all you do for Scoop.

I know I was all excited when I got back from traveling and saw the responses and then start trying to respond and realize it been locked. At first I was worried I done something. I've been known to fire off response to quickly before 2 but I really do always forget who I've responded to and don't let it build up in future threads. I often don't compliment someone and not even notice it someone that I complained about a month earlier. Oh well appreciate all the input

[Silkk the Shaka]

This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you

[Marquette4life]

Anyone know what we would be if mcewen could play this year? Just curious

[auburnmarquette]

This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you

Thank you! Just updated 100+ based on feedback and other things I saw, so here is the opening of the new Cracked Sidewalks update:

100+ Value Add Updated Projections Yield 7-seed Marquette vs. 10-seed Alabama in Opening Round
Marquette's rounding out of the roster with the great pickup in Koby McEwen to red shirt for a year is one of 117 updates to the www.valueaddbasketball.com that leaves Marquette as the projected top 7-seed to face 10-seed Alabama in the opening round game. We updated based on all the notes left in Column A of the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 google sheet so those comments are now cleared out and you can add new notes next to players.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/100-value-add-updated-projections-yield.html

[auburnmarquette]

Anyone know what we would be if mcewen could play this year? Just curious

Yes! Basically the players who will be on the court next year combine for 39.17 in Value Add for the 25th best total, and if we could add McEwen's 2.36 it would move us up to 19th at 41.53.

39.17   25th ranked
2.36   if McEwen could play this year
41.53   would rank 19th

Of course, this is where the system cannot really reflect reality because you can't play all 13 players - so a team that theoretically had 13 players all with 3.0 Value Adds would add up to 39.0 as well, but obviously would not really all end up with the same rankings. However, what I have found is that when you have a team very balanced the odds are some emerge and some fall back, so even if you had a team like that you might end up with a couple of 5.0, a couple of 4.0 etc and still average out to the 3.0.

[Floorslapper]

This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you

I agree.  Value Add is a great addition to the Advanced Stats world of College Basketball - on par with Ken Pomeroy.

Thanks for all the effort to create and perfect this model Auburn..

[auburnmarquette]

I agree.  Value Add is a great addition to the Advanced Stats world of College Basketball - on par with Ken Pomeroy.

Thanks for all the effort to create and perfect this model Auburn..

Thank you! Just added a couple of followup angles on Cracked Sidewalks and pasted below:

S. Hauser and Howard 2 of top 4 Big East Players Definitely Staying

After more than 100 updates to www.valueaddbasketball.com and the google sheet, Sam Hauser now projects as the 37th best player in the nation and all four Big East players ahead of him (Khyri Thomas, Omari Spellman, Jessie Govan and Donte DiVincenzo) put their names into the NBA draft. If all four are successful, Hauser would move up to the preseason Big East Player of the Year.

At www.valueaddbasketball.com we do not actually list Govan as potentially leaving, because if a player entered his name without an agent but is not appearing in mock drafts, we assume he will return - so it is likely at least he is back and any of the other three could be as well. However, the other three could all go in the first round which is tough to turn down due to the guaranteed money over three years.

If you take out all Big East players trying to go pro this year, then your leader board becomes; 1) S. Hauser, 2, Justin Simon of St. John's, 3, Eric Paschall of Villanova, and 4, Markus Howard. Here are the top 25 including those who plan to stay and 2020 players.

My gut is that not only is Joseph Chartouny going to excel well beyond his expectations going from perhaps the worst three-point shooting team in the country to perhaps the best - but I believe Howard will shoot up as well playing opposite the best defensive guard in the nation to not get physically worn down on one end to free him up to go score on the other end consistently


Season Rank   Player   Team   Value Add
25   Khyri Thomas #2/could go NBA   Creighton   8.03
29   Omari Spellman #14/could go NBA   Villanova   8.01
33   Jessie Govan #15 (long shot NBA)   Georgetown   7.95
35   Donte DiVincenzo #10/could go NBA   Villanova   7.84
37   Sam Hauser #10   Marquette   7.81
38   Shamorie Ponds #2/could go NBA   St. John's   7.81
67   Omer Yurtseven #14/2020   Georgetown   7.04
97   Justin Simon #5   St. John's   6.62
101   Eric Paschall #4   Villanova   6.59
111   Max Strus #31/ could go nba   DePaul   6.5
113   Markus Howard #0   Marquette   6.5
115   Myles Powell #13   Seton Hall   6.48
134   Kamar Baldwin #3   Butler   6.34
196   Alpha Diallo #11   Providence   5.54
211   Jahvon Quinerly   Villanova   5.4
229   Paul Jorgensen #5   Butler   5.28
246   Martin Krampelj #15   Creighton   5.18
278   Marvin Clark #13   St. John's   4.93
294   Sean McDermott #22   Butler   4.85
305   Phil Booth #5   Villanova   4.74
316   Ryan Welage #32   Xavier   4.66
329   Tyrique Jones #0   Xavier   4.58
363   Mikey Dixon 3   St. John's   4.38
374   Naji Marshall #13   Xavier   4.32
403   Nate Fowler #51   Butler   4.18

I did post the updated team rankings in the previous post, however it did also occur to me that if you click on the team rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com and then put 2019 in the search field, it takes on the values of the Top 8 players on the team to get a slightly different list.  Marquette comes out the same at 26th - though it shows up at 27th since the top 8 "available" players would add up to the second team. Nevada has so much of their value tied up in players that could go NBA or could transfer that they could stay near the top or could plummet - but if you go with Top 8 right now they are actually ahead of even the big teams.

Rnk   Team   Top 8
1   Nevada   51.02
2   Available   48.92
3   Duke   48.73
4   Kansas   47.46
5   Kentucky   47.21
6   Villanova   44.13
7   North Carolina   41.68
8   Oregon   41.52
9   Auburn   40.84
10   Maryland   40.43
11   Tennessee   40.08
12   Mississippi St.   40.05
13   Syracuse   39.33
14   Gonzaga   38.62
15   Louisiana St.   37.1
16   Virginia   36.2
17   Virginia Tech   34.37
18   Texas   34.28
19   UCLA   34.26
20   Kansas St.   34.16
21   North Carolina St.   34.12
22   St. John's   33.76
23   Michigan St.   33.63
24   Boston College   33.55
25   Miami FL   33.25
26   Montana   33.21
27   Marquette   33.13
28   Florida   32.73
29   Iowa   32.49
30   Arizona St.   32.1

[Dr. Blackheart]

"Available University" is rockin' it.  That just shows the power of these transfers in the "New One and Done Age".

[auburnmarquette]

Cremo's Visit to Nova Could Insure Nova top BE Spot of Marquette in Updated Value Add Projections

Joe Cremo's visit to Villanova could be good for the conference if not for Marquette's chances to win a Big East title. While the defending National Champions have an 18-point lead in projected Value Add over Marquette for the top spot in the Big East, that could be cut to less than four points if both Omari Spellman (8.01) and Donte DiVincenzo (7.84) leave for the NBA. Adding Cremo's 7.06 (65th best-projected player) widens the gap. (www.valueaddbasketball.com will be updated in a week, but for now the updates on the bottom of this post are only in the google sheet).

As much as I'd love the best shot possible to win the Big East one of these years, the fact that Villanova lets the Big East claim two of the last three national championships seems more import for the overall resume, Value Add projects five NCAA bids with St. John's the third team out and Butler the sixth team out.

Georgetown's signing of Omer Yurtseven (7.04 rating after transferring from NC State) would make the Hoya's a tournament team if he did not need to sit out a year. The other big pickups calculated in the 2020 column below are St. John's David Caraher (3.32) and Eli Wright (2.5), DePaul's Darious Hall (2.08) and of course Koby McEwen (2.36).

The tables are available at http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/05/cremos-visit-to-nova-could-insure-nova.html

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.

[brewcity77]

I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.

Nova could be interesting, both DiVincenzo and Spellman were invited to the Combine.

[auburnmarquette]

I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.

Agreed! Our streak vs Creighton is amazing after the way the destroyed us the first few times after joining the big east.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Nova could be interesting, both DiVincenzo and Spellman were invited to the Combine.

Even if both went....I think they still probably finish ahead of us. Though it would be close.

[brewcity77]

Even if both went....I think they still probably finish ahead of us. Though it would be close.

Maybe, but while Paschall and Booth are very good, are they "lead a bunch of inexperienced kids to a Big East title" good? I'm not sure. I feel like with every other team the past few years, Wright has had a first team All American caliber guy ready to emerge. Hart, Brunson, Bridges, but if Spellman and DD go, I just don't see that guy.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

I think Paschall is legit and ready for that next step up should the team require it. Maybe not AA, but would be one of the best players in conference imo.

[auburnmarquette]

I think even if they both go and cremo comes back for argument's sake they are still the clear favorite the Big East. But I do think it knocks them out of likely final four category. I'll look at the Silver Lining either way. If it were losing both and not get cream oh I think we have a legit chance to be Big East champions which would be very nice. If they keep them it'll be great to have a big East team once again potentially contending for the national title. Not to mention helping all of her RPI ratings along the way

[brewcity77]

I think Paschall is legit and ready for that next step up should the team require it. Maybe not AA, but would be one of the best players in conference imo.

And that's why I think they'd fall off significantly. Because the past few years, they've had guys that were clearly among the best in the country, not the conference. DD or Spellman could be that. I don't think so for the rest of their roster.

[auburnmarquette]

Since our lack of experience seemed such an issue this year, I ran the average class (Senior = 4, Freshman= 1) off the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4  spreadsheet and was a little surprised that with our 3 freshmen, 3 sophomores, 4 juniors and 2 seniors we will still rank as only the 266th most experienced team next year based on current rosters. I suppose some that still need to fill a number of spots are more likely to get freshman and perhaps drop behind us, but guess that points out how incredibly young we were last year.


Rnk   Experience   (4.0 = all seniors)
1   Southern Illinois   3.67
2   Southeastern Louisiana   3.60
3   Tennessee Martin   3.60
4   Portland St.   3.57
5   Bethune Cookman   3.56
6   McNeese St.   3.50
7   Mississippi Valley St.   3.50
8   South Dakota St.   3.50
9   Southern   3.50
10   Jacksonville St.   3.45
11   Grambling St.   3.44
12   Hartford   3.44
13   Southern Miss   3.44
14   Hampton   3.42
15   Abilene Christian   3.40
16   Montana St.   3.40
17   Coastal Carolina   3.38
18   Elon   3.38
19   Maine   3.38
20   North Dakota   3.38
21   Utah Valley   3.38
22   Florida A&M   3.36
23   Alabama St.   3.33
24   Georgia Southern   3.33
25   Morgan St.   3.33
26   Norfolk St.   3.33
27   North Carolina A&T   3.33
28   Northern Arizona   3.33
29   Sam Houston St.   3.33
30   San Diego   3.33
31   Stephen F. Austin   3.33
32   UT Arlington   3.33
33   Iona   3.30
34   Jackson St.   3.30
35   Colorado St.   3.29
36   Missouri St.   3.29
37   Ohio   3.29
38   Presbyterian   3.29
39   FIU   3.27
40   NJIT   3.27
41   Montana   3.25
42   Radford   3.25
43   Savannah St.   3.25
44   Western Illinois   3.25
45   Central Michigan   3.22
46   Coppin St.   3.22
47   Eastern Washington   3.22
48   Longwood   3.22
49   Sacramento St.   3.22
50   Saint Peter's   3.22
51   Winthrop   3.22
52   Alabama A&M   3.20
53   Florida Atlantic   3.20
54   Hawaii   3.20
55   Marist   3.20
56   SIU Edwardsville   3.20
57   St. Francis PA   3.20
58   UC Davis   3.20
59   Cal St. Northridge   3.18
60   Central Connecticut   3.18
61   UC Irvine   3.18
62   Eastern Illinois   3.17
63   Fairleigh Dickinson   3.17
64   High Point   3.17
65   IUPUI   3.17
66   Louisiana Monroe   3.17
67   North Carolina Central   3.17
68   Auburn   3.14
69   Prairie View A&M   3.14
70   Wright St.   3.14
71   Colgate   3.13
72   Hofstra   3.13
73   Kennesaw St.   3.13
74   Miami FL   3.13
75   Niagara   3.13
76   Texas St.   3.13
77   Western Michigan   3.13
78   Alcorn St.   3.11
79   Bradley   3.11
80   New Mexico St.   3.11
81   Tulsa   3.11
82   Kent St.   3.10
83   South Dakota   3.10
84   Southern Utah   3.10
85   Tennessee St.   3.10
86   BYU   3.09
87   Oklahoma   3.08
88   UT Rio Grande Valley   3.08
89   San Francisco   3.08
90   Air Force   3.00
91   Arkansas Pine Bluff   3.00
92   Army   3.00
93   Binghamton   3.00
94   Brown   3.00
95   Canisius   3.00
96   Drexel   3.00
97   Eastern Michigan   3.00
98   Evansville   3.00
99   Fresno St.   3.00
100   Furman   3.00
101   Houston Baptist   3.00
102   Idaho St.   3.00
103   Lipscomb   3.00
104   Little Rock   3.00
105   Louisiana Lafayette   3.00
106   Nebraska Omaha   3.00
107   Northeastern   3.00
108   Oakland   3.00
109   Rider   3.00
110   Saint Mary's   3.00
111   South Carolina St.   3.00
112   Southeast Missouri St.   3.00
113   Texas Southern   3.00
114   UCF   3.00
115   USC UpSt.   3.00
116   Wagner   3.00
117   Western Carolina   3.00
118   Buffalo   2.92
119   Northwestern St.   2.92
120   Appalachian St.   2.92
121   Denver   2.92
122   Washington St.   2.92
123   Wofford   2.92
124   Chicago St.   2.91
125   Delaware St.   2.91
126   Howard   2.91
127   Morehead St.   2.91
128   UC Riverside   2.91
129   Columbia   2.90
130   Fordham   2.90
131   Incarnate Word   2.90
132   Middle Tennessee   2.90
133   North Texas   2.90
134   Northern Illinois   2.90
135   UMass Lowell   2.90
136   Austin Peay   2.89
137   Saint Joseph's   2.89
138   St. Francis NY   2.89
139   Tennessee Tech   2.89
140   Bowling Green   2.88
141   Cal Poly   2.88
142   Lamar   2.88
143   Navy   2.88
144   Northern Kentucky   2.88
145   St. Bonaventure   2.88
146   East Tennessee St.   2.86
147   Long Beach St.   2.86
148   New Hampshire   2.86
149   Weber St.   2.86
150   Albany   2.83
151   Bucknell   2.83
152   Campbell   2.83
153   Gardner Webb   2.83
154   South Alabama   2.83
155   Cornell   2.82
156   Holy Cross   2.82
157   New Orleans   2.82
158   Penn   2.82
159   The Citadel   2.82
160   UMBC   2.82
161   Detroit   2.80
162   Florida St.   2.80
163   Quinnipiac   2.80
164   UNC Asheville   2.80
165   Illinois St.   2.79
166   Liberty   2.78
167   New Mexico   2.78
168   Northern Iowa   2.78
169   Richmond   2.78
170   Connecticut   2.77
171   Memphis   2.77
172   Cal St. Fullerton   2.75
173   Georgia St.   2.75
174   Monmouth   2.75
175   Murray St.   2.75
176   Pacific   2.75
177   San Jose St.   2.75
178   Siena   2.75
179   TCU   2.75
180   Nevada   2.73
181   Maryland Eastern Shore   2.73
182   Pepperdine   2.73
183   UNC Wilmington   2.73
184   Illinois Chicago   2.71
185   Mercer   2.71
186   Northern Colorado   2.71
187   Wyoming   2.71
188   Butler   2.70
189   College of Charleston   2.70
190   Delaware   2.70
191   Loyola Marymount   2.70
192   UC Santa Barbara   2.70
193   UTSA   2.70
194   Valparaiso   2.70
195   Akron   2.69
196   Florida Gulf Coast   2.69
197   Kansas St.   2.69
198   Cal St. Bakersfield   2.67
199   Eastern Kentucky   2.67
200   Fort Wayne   2.67
201   Grand Canyon   2.67
202   Houston   2.67
203   James Madison   2.67
204   Lehigh   2.67
205   Nicholls St.   2.67
206   Robert Morris   2.67
207   Texas A&M   2.67
208   Texas Tech   2.67
209   Toledo   2.67
210   Utah   2.67
211   Yale   2.67
212   American   2.64
213   Green Bay   2.64
214   Indiana St.   2.64
215   Manhattan   2.64
216   Nebraska   2.64
217   North Dakota St.   2.64
218   Temple   2.64
219   Vermont   2.64
220   Jacksonville   2.63
221   Youngstown St.   2.63
222   Utah St.   2.62
223   Belmont   2.60
224   Bryant   2.60
225   Lafayette   2.60
226   Louisiana Tech   2.60
227   Troy   2.60
228   UNC Greensboro   2.60
229   VMI   2.60
230   Charlotte   2.58
231   Georgia   2.58
232   Northwestern   2.58
233   Tennessee   2.58
234   Idaho   2.57
235   La Salle   2.57
236   Wisconsin   2.56
237   LIU Brooklyn   2.56
238   Louisville   2.56
239   Loyola Chicago   2.56
240   Marshall   2.56
241   Ball St.   2.55
242   Missouri   2.55
243   Xavier   2.55
244   Loyola MD   2.54
245   Massachusetts   2.53
246   Boise St.   2.50
247   Boston College   2.50
248   Davidson   2.50
249   Dayton   2.50
250   Minnesota   2.50
251   Oregon St.   2.50
252   Princeton   2.50
253   Sacred Heart   2.50
254   UMKC   2.50
255   Iowa   2.46
256   East Carolina   2.45
257   North Florida   2.45
258   Texas A&M Corpus Chris   2.45
259   Virginia Tech   2.45
260   Samford   2.44
261   Towson   2.44
262   Harvard   2.44
263   Chattanooga   2.42
264   Cincinnati   2.42
265   George Mason   2.42
266   Marquette   2.42
267   Rutgers   2.42
268   Tulane   2.42
269   Arizona   2.40
270   Central Arkansas   2.40
271   Fairfield   2.40
272   San Diego St.   2.40
273   Pittsburgh   2.38
274   Portland   2.38
275   Clemson   2.36
276   Creighton   2.36
277   Dartmouth   2.36
278   Penn St.   2.36
279   USC   2.36
280   Florida   2.33
281   Milwaukee   2.33
282   Oral Roberts   2.33
283   UNLV   2.33
284   VCU   2.33
285   Mississippi St.   2.31
286   Arkansas St.   2.30
287   Boston University   2.30
288   Oklahoma St.   2.30
289   Rhode Island   2.30
290   Seattle   2.30
291   Stony Brook   2.29
292   DePaul   2.27
293   Gonzaga   2.27
294   North Carolina   2.27
295   Baylor   2.25
296   Mississippi   2.25
297   Ohio St.   2.25
298   Western Kentucky   2.25
299   Alabama   2.23
300   LSU   2.23
301   SMU   2.23
302   Washington   2.23
303   West Virginia   2.23
304   Purdue   2.22
305   Santa Clara   2.22
306   Virginia   2.22
307   William & Mary   2.22
308   Miami OH   2.20
309   Rice   2.20
310   Duke   2.18
311   Georgetown   2.18
312   Notre Dame   2.18
313   Saint Louis   2.18
314   Villanova   2.18
315   Charleston Southern   2.17
316   Georgia Tech   2.15
317   Michigan St.   2.15
318   Seton Hall   2.15
319   South Carolina   2.15
320   Stanford   2.15
321   Wichita St.   2.15
322   Cleveland St.   2.14
323   Illinois   2.13
324   Stetson   2.13
325   UTEP   2.13
326   St. John's   2.11
327   Old Dominion   2.10
328   Providence   2.10
329   Vanderbilt   2.10
330   Colorado   2.09
331   North Carolina St.   2.09
332   George Washington   2.08
333   Iowa St.   2.08
334   Duquesne   2.08
335   Indiana   2.08
336   Arizona St.   2.00
337   Drake   2.00
338   Maryland   2.00
339   South Florida   2.00
340   UAB   2.00
341   California   1.92
342   Texas   1.92
343   Michigan   1.92
344   Syracuse   1.92
345   Wake Forest   1.92
346   Mount St. Mary's   1.86
347   Kansas   1.83
348   Oregon   1.82
349   Arkansas   1.55
350   UCLA   1.45
351   Kentucky   1.30

[Silkk the Shaka]

Since our lack of experience seemed such an issue this year, I ran the average class (Senior = 4, Freshman= 1) off the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4  spreadsheet and was a little surprised that with our 3 freshmen, 3 sophomores, 4 juniors and 2 seniors we will still rank as only the 266th most experienced team next year based on current rosters. I suppose some that still need to fill a number of spots are more likely to get freshman and perhaps drop behind us, but guess that points out how incredibly young we were last year.

Interesting.. wonder how the picture might change if you only took a team's top 8 expected value add (if really changes at all)

Added: changes a bit in a vacuum if you just look at my presumed 5 best players (Howard, Hauser, Morrow, Chartouny, Joey) =2.8/#161

But that's without doing the same with every other team

Compared to our 5 best last year though (Howard, Hauser, Rowsey, Anim? Heldt?) at 2.6, it's a slight upgrade. The real upgrade comes from height & overall talent level.

[auburnmarquette]

Interesting.. wonder how the picture might change if you only took a team's top 8 expected value add (if really changes at all)

Added: changes a bit in a vacuum if you just look at my presumed 5 best players (Howard, Hauser, Morrow, Chartouny, Joey) =2.8/#161

But that's without doing the same with every other team

Compared to our 5 best last year though (Howard, Hauser, Rowsey, Anim? Heldt?) at 2.6, it's a slight upgrade. The real upgrade comes from height & overall talent level.

You intuition is probably correct. The biggest eye opener for me when I first developed the system is how few freshman are really valuable, so I'd assume ethe average of the top 8 or top 5 is more experienced than the overall roster in the huge majority of cases.

There is a reason the Fab Five were a story - pretty rare, but I guess the only 1.0 top five spots to ever get to that level.