MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: auburnmarquette on April 23, 2018, 01:00:09 AM
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Sorry to see the discussion and great updates for me on www.valueaddbasketball.com was shut down due to an unrelated back-and-forth, so just want to thank and assure I will be making updates. In particularly Ohio State drops out of the tournament with that update - I put the news by their team ranking at https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4:
10.66 lost, 2.35 replacement for losing Keita Bates-Diop to agent drops to 33.14 - just out of tournament puts Clemson in
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couple of Seton Hall updates.
Taurean Thompson's located (thanks) and based on 2017 should project to a very solid 3.40.
on Quincy McKnight - of course he could be better, but 0.13 and 0.02 2 years due to 8th best offensive rating on a very bad team (92.5). Just really weak efficiency against very poor competition so have no numbers to base a higher rating on. That being said a guy who draws fouls, gets steals and dishes assists like he does and is recognized as all conf could be much better - I just need numbers to base a change on.
He was doing this again the NEC, which only had 8 top 1000 players this year. I hope he rises to the level of competition and is awesome, but my adjustments are based on running thousands of four year players who stayed at one school (to avoid distortions) through the typical progression and generally until a player cracks a 1.0 in Value Add he doesn't get to that next level.
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Spotted two more for ya, Zhaire Smith has signed with an agent so that likely drops Texas Tech out of the tourney. Elijah Bryant signed as well so BYU who was barely in the tourney is likely way out.
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Bummer how Hermie derailed your other thread. I’m guessing he got smacked with the banhammer yesterday
John, thanks for all you do for Scoop.
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Spotted two more for ya, Zhaire Smith has signed with an agent so that likely drops Texas Tech out of the tourney. Elijah Bryant signed as well so BYU who was barely in the tourney is likely way out.
Thank you so much this is awesome. This is why I always try to float this stuff on the scoop before I put it out elsewhere because there's so many great spots like this. I will keep updating the Google sheet and then just every several days actually update value-add database.
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Bummer how Hermie derailed your other thread. I’m guessing he got smacked with the banhammer yesterday
John, thanks for all you do for Scoop.
I know I was all excited when I got back from traveling and saw the responses and then start trying to respond and realize it been locked. At first I was worried I done something. I've been known to fire off response to quickly before 2 but I really do always forget who I've responded to and don't let it build up in future threads. I often don't compliment someone and not even notice it someone that I complained about a month earlier. Oh well appreciate all the input
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This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you
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Anyone know what we would be if mcewen could play this year? Just curious
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This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you
Thank you! Just updated 100+ based on feedback and other things I saw, so here is the opening of the new Cracked Sidewalks update:
100+ Value Add Updated Projections Yield 7-seed Marquette vs. 10-seed Alabama in Opening Round
Marquette's rounding out of the roster with the great pickup in Koby McEwen to red shirt for a year is one of 117 updates to the www.valueaddbasketball.com that leaves Marquette as the projected top 7-seed to face 10-seed Alabama in the opening round game. We updated based on all the notes left in Column A of the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 google sheet so those comments are now cleared out and you can add new notes next to players.
http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/04/100-value-add-updated-projections-yield.html
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Anyone know what we would be if mcewen could play this year? Just curious
Yes! Basically the players who will be on the court next year combine for 39.17 in Value Add for the 25th best total, and if we could add McEwen's 2.36 it would move us up to 19th at 41.53.
39.17 25th ranked
2.36 if McEwen could play this year
41.53 would rank 19th
Of course, this is where the system cannot really reflect reality because you can't play all 13 players - so a team that theoretically had 13 players all with 3.0 Value Adds would add up to 39.0 as well, but obviously would not really all end up with the same rankings. However, what I have found is that when you have a team very balanced the odds are some emerge and some fall back, so even if you had a team like that you might end up with a couple of 5.0, a couple of 4.0 etc and still average out to the 3.0.
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This has to be one of the best contributions to MU fandom (& college hoops fandom as a whole). Thank you
I agree. Value Add is a great addition to the Advanced Stats world of College Basketball - on par with Ken Pomeroy.
Thanks for all the effort to create and perfect this model Auburn..
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I agree. Value Add is a great addition to the Advanced Stats world of College Basketball - on par with Ken Pomeroy.
Thanks for all the effort to create and perfect this model Auburn..
Thank you! Just added a couple of followup angles on Cracked Sidewalks and pasted below:
S. Hauser and Howard 2 of top 4 Big East Players Definitely Staying
After more than 100 updates to www.valueaddbasketball.com and the google sheet, Sam Hauser now projects as the 37th best player in the nation and all four Big East players ahead of him (Khyri Thomas, Omari Spellman, Jessie Govan and Donte DiVincenzo) put their names into the NBA draft. If all four are successful, Hauser would move up to the preseason Big East Player of the Year.
At www.valueaddbasketball.com we do not actually list Govan as potentially leaving, because if a player entered his name without an agent but is not appearing in mock drafts, we assume he will return - so it is likely at least he is back and any of the other three could be as well. However, the other three could all go in the first round which is tough to turn down due to the guaranteed money over three years.
If you take out all Big East players trying to go pro this year, then your leader board becomes; 1) S. Hauser, 2, Justin Simon of St. John's, 3, Eric Paschall of Villanova, and 4, Markus Howard. Here are the top 25 including those who plan to stay and 2020 players.
My gut is that not only is Joseph Chartouny going to excel well beyond his expectations going from perhaps the worst three-point shooting team in the country to perhaps the best - but I believe Howard will shoot up as well playing opposite the best defensive guard in the nation to not get physically worn down on one end to free him up to go score on the other end consistently
Season Rank Player Team Value Add
25 Khyri Thomas #2/could go NBA Creighton 8.03
29 Omari Spellman #14/could go NBA Villanova 8.01
33 Jessie Govan #15 (long shot NBA) Georgetown 7.95
35 Donte DiVincenzo #10/could go NBA Villanova 7.84
37 Sam Hauser #10 Marquette 7.81
38 Shamorie Ponds #2/could go NBA St. John's 7.81
67 Omer Yurtseven #14/2020 Georgetown 7.04
97 Justin Simon #5 St. John's 6.62
101 Eric Paschall #4 Villanova 6.59
111 Max Strus #31/ could go nba DePaul 6.5
113 Markus Howard #0 Marquette 6.5
115 Myles Powell #13 Seton Hall 6.48
134 Kamar Baldwin #3 Butler 6.34
196 Alpha Diallo #11 Providence 5.54
211 Jahvon Quinerly Villanova 5.4
229 Paul Jorgensen #5 Butler 5.28
246 Martin Krampelj #15 Creighton 5.18
278 Marvin Clark #13 St. John's 4.93
294 Sean McDermott #22 Butler 4.85
305 Phil Booth #5 Villanova 4.74
316 Ryan Welage #32 Xavier 4.66
329 Tyrique Jones #0 Xavier 4.58
363 Mikey Dixon 3 St. John's 4.38
374 Naji Marshall #13 Xavier 4.32
403 Nate Fowler #51 Butler 4.18
I did post the updated team rankings in the previous post, however it did also occur to me that if you click on the team rankings at www.valueaddbasketball.com and then put 2019 in the search field, it takes on the values of the Top 8 players on the team to get a slightly different list. Marquette comes out the same at 26th - though it shows up at 27th since the top 8 "available" players would add up to the second team. Nevada has so much of their value tied up in players that could go NBA or could transfer that they could stay near the top or could plummet - but if you go with Top 8 right now they are actually ahead of even the big teams.
Rnk Team Top 8
1 Nevada 51.02
2 Available 48.92
3 Duke 48.73
4 Kansas 47.46
5 Kentucky 47.21
6 Villanova 44.13
7 North Carolina 41.68
8 Oregon 41.52
9 Auburn 40.84
10 Maryland 40.43
11 Tennessee 40.08
12 Mississippi St. 40.05
13 Syracuse 39.33
14 Gonzaga 38.62
15 Louisiana St. 37.1
16 Virginia 36.2
17 Virginia Tech 34.37
18 Texas 34.28
19 UCLA 34.26
20 Kansas St. 34.16
21 North Carolina St. 34.12
22 St. John's 33.76
23 Michigan St. 33.63
24 Boston College 33.55
25 Miami FL 33.25
26 Montana 33.21
27 Marquette 33.13
28 Florida 32.73
29 Iowa 32.49
30 Arizona St. 32.1
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"Available University" is rockin' it. That just shows the power of these transfers in the "New One and Done Age".
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Cremo's Visit to Nova Could Insure Nova top BE Spot of Marquette in Updated Value Add Projections
Joe Cremo's visit to Villanova could be good for the conference if not for Marquette's chances to win a Big East title. While the defending National Champions have an 18-point lead in projected Value Add over Marquette for the top spot in the Big East, that could be cut to less than four points if both Omari Spellman (8.01) and Donte DiVincenzo (7.84) leave for the NBA. Adding Cremo's 7.06 (65th best-projected player) widens the gap. (www.valueaddbasketball.com will be updated in a week, but for now the updates on the bottom of this post are only in the google sheet).
As much as I'd love the best shot possible to win the Big East one of these years, the fact that Villanova lets the Big East claim two of the last three national championships seems more import for the overall resume, Value Add projects five NCAA bids with St. John's the third team out and Butler the sixth team out.
Georgetown's signing of Omer Yurtseven (7.04 rating after transferring from NC State) would make the Hoya's a tournament team if he did not need to sit out a year. The other big pickups calculated in the 2020 column below are St. John's David Caraher (3.32) and Eli Wright (2.5), DePaul's Darious Hall (2.08) and of course Koby McEwen (2.36).
The tables are available at http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/05/cremos-visit-to-nova-could-insure-nova.html
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I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.
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I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.
Nova could be interesting, both DiVincenzo and Spellman were invited to the Combine.
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I'd rather Cremo go to Nova rather than the possibility of Creighton. I'm pretty sure Nova will finish ahead of us no mata what.....but I don't want Creighton to be able to catch us.
Agreed! Our streak vs Creighton is amazing after the way the destroyed us the first few times after joining the big east.
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Nova could be interesting, both DiVincenzo and Spellman were invited to the Combine.
Even if both went....I think they still probably finish ahead of us. Though it would be close.
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Even if both went....I think they still probably finish ahead of us. Though it would be close.
Maybe, but while Paschall and Booth are very good, are they "lead a bunch of inexperienced kids to a Big East title" good? I'm not sure. I feel like with every other team the past few years, Wright has had a first team All American caliber guy ready to emerge. Hart, Brunson, Bridges, but if Spellman and DD go, I just don't see that guy.
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I think Paschall is legit and ready for that next step up should the team require it. Maybe not AA, but would be one of the best players in conference imo.
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I think even if they both go and cremo comes back for argument's sake they are still the clear favorite the Big East. But I do think it knocks them out of likely final four category. I'll look at the Silver Lining either way. If it were losing both and not get cream oh I think we have a legit chance to be Big East champions which would be very nice. If they keep them it'll be great to have a big East team once again potentially contending for the national title. Not to mention helping all of her RPI ratings along the way
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I think Paschall is legit and ready for that next step up should the team require it. Maybe not AA, but would be one of the best players in conference imo.
And that's why I think they'd fall off significantly. Because the past few years, they've had guys that were clearly among the best in the country, not the conference. DD or Spellman could be that. I don't think so for the rest of their roster.
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Since our lack of experience seemed such an issue this year, I ran the average class (Senior = 4, Freshman= 1) off the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 spreadsheet and was a little surprised that with our 3 freshmen, 3 sophomores, 4 juniors and 2 seniors we will still rank as only the 266th most experienced team next year based on current rosters. I suppose some that still need to fill a number of spots are more likely to get freshman and perhaps drop behind us, but guess that points out how incredibly young we were last year.
Rnk Experience (4.0 = all seniors)
1 Southern Illinois 3.67
2 Southeastern Louisiana 3.60
3 Tennessee Martin 3.60
4 Portland St. 3.57
5 Bethune Cookman 3.56
6 McNeese St. 3.50
7 Mississippi Valley St. 3.50
8 South Dakota St. 3.50
9 Southern 3.50
10 Jacksonville St. 3.45
11 Grambling St. 3.44
12 Hartford 3.44
13 Southern Miss 3.44
14 Hampton 3.42
15 Abilene Christian 3.40
16 Montana St. 3.40
17 Coastal Carolina 3.38
18 Elon 3.38
19 Maine 3.38
20 North Dakota 3.38
21 Utah Valley 3.38
22 Florida A&M 3.36
23 Alabama St. 3.33
24 Georgia Southern 3.33
25 Morgan St. 3.33
26 Norfolk St. 3.33
27 North Carolina A&T 3.33
28 Northern Arizona 3.33
29 Sam Houston St. 3.33
30 San Diego 3.33
31 Stephen F. Austin 3.33
32 UT Arlington 3.33
33 Iona 3.30
34 Jackson St. 3.30
35 Colorado St. 3.29
36 Missouri St. 3.29
37 Ohio 3.29
38 Presbyterian 3.29
39 FIU 3.27
40 NJIT 3.27
41 Montana 3.25
42 Radford 3.25
43 Savannah St. 3.25
44 Western Illinois 3.25
45 Central Michigan 3.22
46 Coppin St. 3.22
47 Eastern Washington 3.22
48 Longwood 3.22
49 Sacramento St. 3.22
50 Saint Peter's 3.22
51 Winthrop 3.22
52 Alabama A&M 3.20
53 Florida Atlantic 3.20
54 Hawaii 3.20
55 Marist 3.20
56 SIU Edwardsville 3.20
57 St. Francis PA 3.20
58 UC Davis 3.20
59 Cal St. Northridge 3.18
60 Central Connecticut 3.18
61 UC Irvine 3.18
62 Eastern Illinois 3.17
63 Fairleigh Dickinson 3.17
64 High Point 3.17
65 IUPUI 3.17
66 Louisiana Monroe 3.17
67 North Carolina Central 3.17
68 Auburn 3.14
69 Prairie View A&M 3.14
70 Wright St. 3.14
71 Colgate 3.13
72 Hofstra 3.13
73 Kennesaw St. 3.13
74 Miami FL 3.13
75 Niagara 3.13
76 Texas St. 3.13
77 Western Michigan 3.13
78 Alcorn St. 3.11
79 Bradley 3.11
80 New Mexico St. 3.11
81 Tulsa 3.11
82 Kent St. 3.10
83 South Dakota 3.10
84 Southern Utah 3.10
85 Tennessee St. 3.10
86 BYU 3.09
87 Oklahoma 3.08
88 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.08
89 San Francisco 3.08
90 Air Force 3.00
91 Arkansas Pine Bluff 3.00
92 Army 3.00
93 Binghamton 3.00
94 Brown 3.00
95 Canisius 3.00
96 Drexel 3.00
97 Eastern Michigan 3.00
98 Evansville 3.00
99 Fresno St. 3.00
100 Furman 3.00
101 Houston Baptist 3.00
102 Idaho St. 3.00
103 Lipscomb 3.00
104 Little Rock 3.00
105 Louisiana Lafayette 3.00
106 Nebraska Omaha 3.00
107 Northeastern 3.00
108 Oakland 3.00
109 Rider 3.00
110 Saint Mary's 3.00
111 South Carolina St. 3.00
112 Southeast Missouri St. 3.00
113 Texas Southern 3.00
114 UCF 3.00
115 USC UpSt. 3.00
116 Wagner 3.00
117 Western Carolina 3.00
118 Buffalo 2.92
119 Northwestern St. 2.92
120 Appalachian St. 2.92
121 Denver 2.92
122 Washington St. 2.92
123 Wofford 2.92
124 Chicago St. 2.91
125 Delaware St. 2.91
126 Howard 2.91
127 Morehead St. 2.91
128 UC Riverside 2.91
129 Columbia 2.90
130 Fordham 2.90
131 Incarnate Word 2.90
132 Middle Tennessee 2.90
133 North Texas 2.90
134 Northern Illinois 2.90
135 UMass Lowell 2.90
136 Austin Peay 2.89
137 Saint Joseph's 2.89
138 St. Francis NY 2.89
139 Tennessee Tech 2.89
140 Bowling Green 2.88
141 Cal Poly 2.88
142 Lamar 2.88
143 Navy 2.88
144 Northern Kentucky 2.88
145 St. Bonaventure 2.88
146 East Tennessee St. 2.86
147 Long Beach St. 2.86
148 New Hampshire 2.86
149 Weber St. 2.86
150 Albany 2.83
151 Bucknell 2.83
152 Campbell 2.83
153 Gardner Webb 2.83
154 South Alabama 2.83
155 Cornell 2.82
156 Holy Cross 2.82
157 New Orleans 2.82
158 Penn 2.82
159 The Citadel 2.82
160 UMBC 2.82
161 Detroit 2.80
162 Florida St. 2.80
163 Quinnipiac 2.80
164 UNC Asheville 2.80
165 Illinois St. 2.79
166 Liberty 2.78
167 New Mexico 2.78
168 Northern Iowa 2.78
169 Richmond 2.78
170 Connecticut 2.77
171 Memphis 2.77
172 Cal St. Fullerton 2.75
173 Georgia St. 2.75
174 Monmouth 2.75
175 Murray St. 2.75
176 Pacific 2.75
177 San Jose St. 2.75
178 Siena 2.75
179 TCU 2.75
180 Nevada 2.73
181 Maryland Eastern Shore 2.73
182 Pepperdine 2.73
183 UNC Wilmington 2.73
184 Illinois Chicago 2.71
185 Mercer 2.71
186 Northern Colorado 2.71
187 Wyoming 2.71
188 Butler 2.70
189 College of Charleston 2.70
190 Delaware 2.70
191 Loyola Marymount 2.70
192 UC Santa Barbara 2.70
193 UTSA 2.70
194 Valparaiso 2.70
195 Akron 2.69
196 Florida Gulf Coast 2.69
197 Kansas St. 2.69
198 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.67
199 Eastern Kentucky 2.67
200 Fort Wayne 2.67
201 Grand Canyon 2.67
202 Houston 2.67
203 James Madison 2.67
204 Lehigh 2.67
205 Nicholls St. 2.67
206 Robert Morris 2.67
207 Texas A&M 2.67
208 Texas Tech 2.67
209 Toledo 2.67
210 Utah 2.67
211 Yale 2.67
212 American 2.64
213 Green Bay 2.64
214 Indiana St. 2.64
215 Manhattan 2.64
216 Nebraska 2.64
217 North Dakota St. 2.64
218 Temple 2.64
219 Vermont 2.64
220 Jacksonville 2.63
221 Youngstown St. 2.63
222 Utah St. 2.62
223 Belmont 2.60
224 Bryant 2.60
225 Lafayette 2.60
226 Louisiana Tech 2.60
227 Troy 2.60
228 UNC Greensboro 2.60
229 VMI 2.60
230 Charlotte 2.58
231 Georgia 2.58
232 Northwestern 2.58
233 Tennessee 2.58
234 Idaho 2.57
235 La Salle 2.57
236 Wisconsin 2.56
237 LIU Brooklyn 2.56
238 Louisville 2.56
239 Loyola Chicago 2.56
240 Marshall 2.56
241 Ball St. 2.55
242 Missouri 2.55
243 Xavier 2.55
244 Loyola MD 2.54
245 Massachusetts 2.53
246 Boise St. 2.50
247 Boston College 2.50
248 Davidson 2.50
249 Dayton 2.50
250 Minnesota 2.50
251 Oregon St. 2.50
252 Princeton 2.50
253 Sacred Heart 2.50
254 UMKC 2.50
255 Iowa 2.46
256 East Carolina 2.45
257 North Florida 2.45
258 Texas A&M Corpus Chris 2.45
259 Virginia Tech 2.45
260 Samford 2.44
261 Towson 2.44
262 Harvard 2.44
263 Chattanooga 2.42
264 Cincinnati 2.42
265 George Mason 2.42
266 Marquette 2.42
267 Rutgers 2.42
268 Tulane 2.42
269 Arizona 2.40
270 Central Arkansas 2.40
271 Fairfield 2.40
272 San Diego St. 2.40
273 Pittsburgh 2.38
274 Portland 2.38
275 Clemson 2.36
276 Creighton 2.36
277 Dartmouth 2.36
278 Penn St. 2.36
279 USC 2.36
280 Florida 2.33
281 Milwaukee 2.33
282 Oral Roberts 2.33
283 UNLV 2.33
284 VCU 2.33
285 Mississippi St. 2.31
286 Arkansas St. 2.30
287 Boston University 2.30
288 Oklahoma St. 2.30
289 Rhode Island 2.30
290 Seattle 2.30
291 Stony Brook 2.29
292 DePaul 2.27
293 Gonzaga 2.27
294 North Carolina 2.27
295 Baylor 2.25
296 Mississippi 2.25
297 Ohio St. 2.25
298 Western Kentucky 2.25
299 Alabama 2.23
300 LSU 2.23
301 SMU 2.23
302 Washington 2.23
303 West Virginia 2.23
304 Purdue 2.22
305 Santa Clara 2.22
306 Virginia 2.22
307 William & Mary 2.22
308 Miami OH 2.20
309 Rice 2.20
310 Duke 2.18
311 Georgetown 2.18
312 Notre Dame 2.18
313 Saint Louis 2.18
314 Villanova 2.18
315 Charleston Southern 2.17
316 Georgia Tech 2.15
317 Michigan St. 2.15
318 Seton Hall 2.15
319 South Carolina 2.15
320 Stanford 2.15
321 Wichita St. 2.15
322 Cleveland St. 2.14
323 Illinois 2.13
324 Stetson 2.13
325 UTEP 2.13
326 St. John's 2.11
327 Old Dominion 2.10
328 Providence 2.10
329 Vanderbilt 2.10
330 Colorado 2.09
331 North Carolina St. 2.09
332 George Washington 2.08
333 Iowa St. 2.08
334 Duquesne 2.08
335 Indiana 2.08
336 Arizona St. 2.00
337 Drake 2.00
338 Maryland 2.00
339 South Florida 2.00
340 UAB 2.00
341 California 1.92
342 Texas 1.92
343 Michigan 1.92
344 Syracuse 1.92
345 Wake Forest 1.92
346 Mount St. Mary's 1.86
347 Kansas 1.83
348 Oregon 1.82
349 Arkansas 1.55
350 UCLA 1.45
351 Kentucky 1.30
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Since our lack of experience seemed such an issue this year, I ran the average class (Senior = 4, Freshman= 1) off the https://tinyurl.com/y9mr9uu4 spreadsheet and was a little surprised that with our 3 freshmen, 3 sophomores, 4 juniors and 2 seniors we will still rank as only the 266th most experienced team next year based on current rosters. I suppose some that still need to fill a number of spots are more likely to get freshman and perhaps drop behind us, but guess that points out how incredibly young we were last year.
Interesting.. wonder how the picture might change if you only took a team's top 8 expected value add (if really changes at all)
Added: changes a bit in a vacuum if you just look at my presumed 5 best players (Howard, Hauser, Morrow, Chartouny, Joey) =2.8/#161
But that's without doing the same with every other team
Compared to our 5 best last year though (Howard, Hauser, Rowsey, Anim? Heldt?) at 2.6, it's a slight upgrade. The real upgrade comes from height & overall talent level.
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Interesting.. wonder how the picture might change if you only took a team's top 8 expected value add (if really changes at all)
Added: changes a bit in a vacuum if you just look at my presumed 5 best players (Howard, Hauser, Morrow, Chartouny, Joey) =2.8/#161
But that's without doing the same with every other team
Compared to our 5 best last year though (Howard, Hauser, Rowsey, Anim? Heldt?) at 2.6, it's a slight upgrade. The real upgrade comes from height & overall talent level.
You intuition is probably correct. The biggest eye opener for me when I first developed the system is how few freshman are really valuable, so I'd assume ethe average of the top 8 or top 5 is more experienced than the overall roster in the huge majority of cases.
There is a reason the Fab Five were a story - pretty rare, but I guess the only 1.0 top five spots to ever get to that level.