Which Big East draw gives us the best chance at an NCAA bid?

[auburnmarquette]

Hope I've figured out the seeding correctly.

I believe I'm playing through the tie-breakers correctly and see these 3 most likely scenarios for the Big East tournament. Assuming for the moment we beat Creighton, pick which of these 3 brackets would give us the best chance to make the tournament. There are two aspects - the first scenario is how many you believe we could win in each scenario, and the second is how many wins you believe it would take in each scenario to get a bid. I give the RPI and SOS in each scenario assuming a 20-13 record, which I still believe gets us in:

1. If all teams win as seeded at www.kenpom.com (including Marquette over Creighton) then Butler drops to a tie with us and knocks us down to a 7-seed whether or not Providence also ties with us because of the sweep by Butler. Then it is:

Marquette (7) vs DePaul (10) - really don't want St. John's to drop to 10 and play on their court, but that's only if they lose and DePaul wins.

Marquette (7) vs Villanova (2) - pull that big upset and I believe we are in even losing in the semifinal to Creighton.

At 20-13 in this scenario RPI Forecast says our RPI is 50 and SOS is 22.

2. www.kenpom.com correct except Butler beats Seton Hall

Marquette (6) vs. Providence (3) - I believe with Providence-Butler-Creighton in a miniconference they all split with each other so Providence gets the 3-seed due to wins over Xavier and Nova then Butler gets the 4 seed by going all the way down to them beating us as the 6-seed.

Marquette (6) vs. Villanova (2)

At 20-13 in this scenario, a 43 RPI and 18 SOS.

3. www.kenpom.com correct except Butler beats Seton Hall and St. John's beats Providence

Marquette (5) vs Creighton (4) - Believe Butler claims the 3-seed over Creighton by going all the way down to beating Marquette as the 5-seed.

Marquette (5) vs. Xavier (1)

At 20-13 in this scenario, a 37 RPI and 9 SOS.

Tell me if I have the scenarios wrong! (there are a few other scenarios, but hopefully I have tiebreakers right on these)

[BM1090]

Scenari0 2, but doubt we'd need to beat Nova. Beating Creighton and PC would be enough. Beating Creighton and DePaul could maybe even be enough.

[auburnmarquette]

sure, and I'm trying (awkwardly) to make that part of the question. If you think it only takes that one tournament win in that scenario then that is definitely the one to pick.

Agreed beating sweeping Creighton with them beating Nova in between should be a huge boost.

[#UnleashSean]

If we beat Creighton and don't lose in round 1 I believe were in.

[MUMonster03]

This all assumes we win Saturday, otherwise we probably have to win Big East Tourney.

Beat Providence, probably in.
Beat DePaul and Lose, probably need help
Get two wins in Big East Tourney likely in.

I like our chances a lot better as the 6 and playing Providence then I do if we go as the 7 and then have to play Nova or Xavier in the 2nd round.

[wisblue]

Without wracking my brain too much over tiebreaker scenarios I came up with the same results you did.

My first choice would be MU getting the 6 seed and playing Providence. I think getting wins over 2 NCAA bound teams (Creighton and one other) would put MU in great shape, and that first round game would just provide a chance for a damaging loss and tire the team for the second round if they win. And obviously Providence is a less imposing matchup than Villanova.

Playing Creighton for the second time in less than a week and having to beat them for the third time in three weeks is less appealing.

[SaveOD238]

Any scenario that involves us beating Xavier or Villanova gets us in, especially if by beating one we get to play the other.

Right now, we just want to avoid DePaul, because all of the other potential first games are Q1 matchups.  I'm not convinced that we need to off X or Nova if we can get Q1 wins at home vs. Creighton and on a neutral court vs whoever we draw.

[Its DJOver]

I went with 5 seed beating Creighton.  A win over BEast champs X would just be icing.  Don't see a scenario where we get left out with our resume, if our resume includes beating Creighton 3 times.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I didn't vote.  MU is in the tournament under any of those scenarios.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

With last night's results, I think the easiest path to an at large is beating Creighton, getting the 3 seed and winning the 3/6 game, or getting the 5 seed and winning the 4/5 game.

I think we'd have a prayer but it'd be Dayton at best if we beat Depaul and then lose to Nova.  Likewise if we lose the 3/6 game or 4/5 game. 

Any scenario with 2 BET wins I believe is safely in the field.

[muguru]

With last night's results, I think the easiest path to an at large is beating Creighton, getting the 3 seed and winning the 3/6 game, or getting the 5 seed and winning the 4/5 game.

I think we'd have a prayer but it'd be Dayton at best if we beat Depaul and then lose to Nova.  Likewise if we lose the 3/6 game or 4/5 game. 

Any scenario with 2 BET wins I believe is safely in the field.

I agree with you, that two BET wins, and they are in(of course assuming a Creighton win). How about this ideal scenario...MU gets the three seed, gets Providence...beats them, then 7th seeded Seton hall, beats #2 Nova...MU gets Hall in the Semis. Not totally unrealistic either.

[Herman Cain]

With last night's results, I think the easiest path to an at large is beating Creighton, getting the 3 seed and winning the 3/6 game, or getting the 5 seed and winning the 4/5 game.

I think we'd have a prayer but it'd be Dayton at best if we beat Depaul and then lose to Nova.  Likewise if we lose the 3/6 game or 4/5 game. 

Any scenario with 2 BET wins I believe is safely in the field.

I agree with you, that two BET wins, and they are in(of course assuming a Creighton win). How about this ideal scenario...MU gets the three seed, gets Providence...beats them, then 7th seeded Seton hall, beats #2 Nova...MU gets Hall in the Semis. Not totally unrealistic either.

How do we get the 3 seed above, when Creighton already has 10 wins.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How do we get the 3 seed above, when Creighton already has 10 wins.

I meant 6 seed, and playing 3 seed.

[WindyCityGoldenEagle]

I'll say we're toast if we get the 7 seed. Highly unlikely we beat x or nova and the Creighton and DePaul wins wouldn't be enough imo.

[WayOfTheWarrior]

I didn't vote.  MU is in the tournament under any of those scenarios.

I agree but I still voted for 7 seed option. A win Saturday + first round is good enough IMO.

[Babybluejeans]

I'll say we're toast if we get the 7 seed. Highly unlikely we beat x or nova and the Creighton and DePaul wins wouldn't be enough imo.

I too would rather not sweat out the Creighton-DePaul-X/Nova loss scenario. So after the obvious need to beat Creighton Saturday afternoon, we need to be rooting hard for Butler Saturday night.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I too would rather not sweat out the Creighton-DePaul-X/Nova loss scenario. So after the obvious need to beat Creighton Saturday afternoon, we need to be rooting hard for Butler Saturday night.

I think we're in pretty equivalent situations with a Creighton W, Depaul W in 7/10 game, Nova L as we are with a Creighton W, PC L in 3/6 game.  I'd probably take Depaul W then Nova L if I had to chose between the two.  But I do think that that 3 v 6 game versus PC would basically be playing for our tourney lives...we win that we're almost certainly in.  We'd need to beat Depaul and then Nova to feel that confident in the other scenario. 

Creighton W, Depaul W, Nova L: 19-13; RPI: 60, SOS: 25

Creighton W, Providence L: 18-13; RPI: 63, SOS: 26

Creighton W, Providence W, Xavier L: 19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 18

[muguru]

I think we're in pretty equivalent situations with a Creighton W, Depaul W in 7/10 game, Nova L as we are with a Creighton W, PC L in 3/6 game.  I'd probably take Depaul W then Nova L if I had to chose between the two.  But I do think that that 3 v 6 game versus PC would basically be playing for our tourney lives...we win that we're almost certainly in.  We'd need to beat Depaul and then Nova to feel that confident in the other scenario. 

Creighton W, Depaul W, Nova L: 19-13; RPI: 60, SOS: 25

Creighton W, Providence L: 18-13; RPI: 63, SOS: 26

Creighton W, Providence W, Xavier L: 19-13; RPI: 50, SOS: 18

This is why I want the 6 seed so badly now. I agree with the above..I'm not confident a win over DePaul in the 7-10 game does anything for MU as it would likely require beating Nova/X to get in. No thanks. Where as, with the 6 seed, I can't help but think that winning that gets MU in regardless of their next game. Basically, to me, it seems the "shorter" route to an at large.

[auburnmarquette]

Any scenario with 2 BET wins I believe is safely in the field.

Got it, and that is why I believe the 7-seed is a legitimate choice (even though only 3 picket it). If we knew 2 big east wins get us in then it would be easier to get one against DePaul. I don't want St John's to fall to 10 though - that would be a nightmare 7 v 10 for us on their home court.

[MuMark]

I didn't vote.  MU is in the tournament under any of those scenarios.

This

[MUBigDance]

I didn't vote.  MU is in the tournament under any of those scenarios.

Sure all three get them in...but voted anyway. I like polls.
Would have been good to have a 5th choice:  [ ] - they all work.

Note: Poll allows for a lot of options....if you keep it logical, can have a bunch.
I think a poll after Creighton game for BET/Tourney options...for example 1,2,3,4 wins X in/out of tourney...depending on seed of course.

[auburnmarquette]

Yeah, I probably worded a bit off. Was trying to ask which road gave us the best chance to get in. So if you thought we had a better chance to win two games as either a 5- or a 6-seed and either would get them in, then pick the matchups we'd be more likely to get the two wins.

Thanks for participating even if my pollster questions weren't quite clear.

[Silkk the Shaka]

My ideal scenario is DePaul round 1 (win), Nova round 2. I think we need a marquee win to feel safe, and Nova has been vulnerable since Booth went down. I don't think a win against another upper-mid BEast team as the 5th/6th seed moves the needle enough, especially with bid stealer potential.

Creighton -> DePaul -> Nova is our most likely path to the tourney IMHO.

[brewcity77]

Any draw that ends in a win Saturday night is the best chance at a bid.

[Spotcheck Billy]

Paschal left the Nova-SH game the other night, is he going to be back?