Projected Big East Standings / BET Scenarios

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 11-2         HALL, NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (4-1)
Villanova 10-2     @PC, @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (6-0)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Providence 7-5     NOVA, @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-5)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-6      @X, DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-2)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-9           SJU, @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (1-5)
St. John's 2-11     @DEP, @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-5)

Villanova 16-2
Xavier 15-3
Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
Creighton 10-8
Marquette 9-9
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 6-12
Depaul 4-14
St. John's 2-16

If things go chalk (per T-RANK), which obviously they won't, I think things set up pretty great for MU.  They get the 6 seed in the BEt and avoid SJU in the Garden.  Match up with Seton Hall in the 3v.6 game, which obviously is a team we've matched up well with.  Seton Hall finishes 3rd in conference and we own a sweep over them. PC falls to 8-10, which is good, because they own the H2H tiebreaker over MU. 

T-Rank projects SJU to go 0-5 down the stretch, which I doubt will happen.  But if they go 1-4 and beat Depaul tonight, which I expect them to do, they'd get the 9 seed and Depaul the 10.

I don't see a 4-2 finish to league play for Hall.  If they end up 9-9, we win all H2H tie breakers with them.  If PC, Hall and Marquette all finish 9-9, MU wins the mini-conference. We'd likely finish with the 5 seed in this scenario and matchup with Butler or Creighton. That said, Hall finishing stong is a good thing for MU because we want our 2 wins over them to be in Quad 1.

Obviously a lot of basketball left to play, but I think at this point MU should be rooting for Providence to lose, SJU to finish ahead of Depaul, and Georgetown to stop winning games because that does no one any good. And of course Marquette to go 4-1 or 5-0!

[79Warrior]

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 11-2         HALL, NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (4-1)
Villanova 10-2     @PC, @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (6-0)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Providence 7-5     NOVA, @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-5)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-6      @X, DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-2)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-9           SJU, @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (1-5)
St. John's 2-11     @DEP, @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-5)

Villanova 16-2
Xavier 15-3
Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
Creighton 10-8
Marquette 9-9
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 6-12
Depaul 4-14
St. John's 2-16

If things go chalk (per T-RANK), which obviously they won't, I think things set up pretty great for MU.  They get the 6 seed in the BEt and avoid SJU in the Garden.  Match up with Seton Hall in the 3v.6 game, which obviously is a team we've matched up well with.  Seton Hall finishes 3rd in conference and we own a sweep over them. PC falls to 8-10, which is good, because they own the H2H tiebreaker over MU. 

T-Rank projects SJU to go 0-5 down the stretch, which I doubt will happen.  But if they go 1-4 and beat Depaul tonight, which I expect them to do, they'd get the 9 seed and Depaul the 10.

I don't see a 4-2 finish to league play for Hall.  If they end up 9-9, we win all H2H tie breakers with them.  If PC, Hall and Marquette all finish 9-9, MU wins the mini-conference. We'd likely finish with the 5 seed in this scenario and matchup with Butler or Creighton. That said, Hall finishing stong is a good thing for MU because we want our 2 wins over them to be in Quad 1.

Obviously a lot of basketball left to play, but I think at this point MU should be rooting for Providence to lose, SJU to finish ahead of Depaul, and Georgetown to stop winning games because that does no one any good. And of course Marquette to go 4-1 or 5-0!

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

[Newsdreams]

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

Still time left but yes looks like upset time

[Newsdreams]

Down goes Nova

[injuryBug]

PC just messed up your plan

[BM1090]

Seton Hall down 20 at X. I really think they end up 9-9. If we can win some games i do think we'll avoid the first day in the BET.

[burger]

We are declining just like Seton Hall.....

7th or 8th in the league......

Could be 9th if St. John's gets hot......

The most disappointing year in a long time.....

Enough talent to be top 4/5.....

It is what it is.....

Conference RPI is down to 5 Beast teams....maybe 6......

We are so so done......

[Newsdreams]

.......

[79Warrior]

We are declining just like Seton Hall.....

7th or 8th in the league......

Could be 9th if St. John's gets hot......

The most disappointing year in a long time.....

Enough talent to be top 4/5.....

It is what it is.....

Conference RPI is down to 5 Beast teams....maybe 6......

We are so so done......

There is not enough talent to compete in the top half of this conference. Not sure what you have been watching.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

Sorry to bother you.  If you don't like it, don't read it.  I will get off your lawn now.

PC just messed up your plan

Wasn’t a plan.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated with last night's results.

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 12-2         NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (3-1)
Villanova 10-3     @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (5-0)
Providence 8-5     @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-4)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-7      DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-1)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-10          @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (0-5)
St. John's 3-11     @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-4)


1. Villanova 15-3
2. Xavier 15-3
3. Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
4. Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
5. Creighton 10-8
6. Providence 9-9 (beats Marquette in tie breaker due to Nova win)
7. Marquette 9-9
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. Johns 3-15 (beats Depaul in tie breaker due to Nova win)
10. Depaul 3-15

[slack00]

If we don't go 4-1 over the next five games, I hope people don't say the projection wasn't correct.  Given those individual probabilities it's only 20% likely that MU goes 4-1 or better.  It's basically three coin flips at the end of the regular season.

5 wins:  3.06%
4 wins: 17.28%
3 wins: 34.09%
2 wins: 30.74%
1 win:  12.85%
0 wins:  1.99%

[BM1090]

Updated with last night's results.

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 12-2         NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (3-1)
Villanova 10-3     @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (5-0)
Providence 8-5     @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-4)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-7      DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-1)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-10          @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (0-5)
St. John's 3-11     @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-4)


1. Villanova 15-3
2. Xavier 15-3
3. Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
4. Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
5. Creighton 10-8
6. Providence 9-9 (beats Marquette in tie breaker due to Nova win)
7. Marquette 9-9
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. Johns 3-15 (beats Depaul in tie breaker due to Nova win)
10. Depaul 3-15

I don't see SHU only losing 1 of 5 games to finish 10-8 there. Would assume a win over DePaul and 2-2 vs PC/SJ/NOVA/Butler.

If MU can win some games we could end up with a real cluster between 3-7 just like last year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't see SHU only losing 1 of 5 games to finish 10-8 there. Would assume a win over DePaul and 2-2 vs PC/SJ/NOVA/Butler.

If MU can win some games we could end up with a real cluster between 3-7 just like last year.

Agreed.  Just using TRANKs win %s to be consistent.   

A 3 way tie between Hall, PC and Marquette is ideal for us, because we'll win that mini-conference.

[StillAWarrior]

Just for the hell of it, I'm going to rank these based upon how likely I think the team is to achieve at least the "projected" record (with 1 being the most likely):


1 SJU (@MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC) (0-4) (Obviously, they'll at least achieve this, but I think SJU will win at least one of these)

2 DePaul (@HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X) (0-5) (Obviously, at least achieve, but won't be surprised if they don't exceed it)

3 X (NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP) (3-1) (Wouldn't be surprised to see X run the table, but 3-1 seems pretty safe)

4 PC (@BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU) (1-4) (I think they'll get at least two wins here)

5 Creighton (MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ) (2-3) (I figure they get at least two, but quite possibly more)

6 GU (X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA) (1-3) (Only because I think they'll pick up one game -- but that's probably it)

7 Butler (PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL) (3-1) (would expect 2-2 or 3-1; this was probably the toughest one for me)

8 'Nova (@X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN) (5-0) (It's tough to go 5-0, and I think there's a decent chance they'll lose @X)

9 Marquette (@CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE) (4-1) (I hate to say it, but I'd be surprised if MU went 4-1; 3-2 or even 2-3 are more likely)

10 SHU (DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT) (4-1) (I'd be very surprised to see SHU go 4-1 down the stretch)

[The Equalizer]

I think St. Johns poses an interesting situation.

Let's say they pull off three more wins--certainly not out of the question based on the opposition (MU, SHU, Butler & Providence).

I said the win is against MU. In that case, they wind up with an RPI of 54, and an SOS of 5
They would probably still wind up 8th or 9th place with a record of 6-12.

As many here are fond of saying, there is no way a team with an RPI of 54 and and SOS of 5 from the Big East could be left out of the tournament.  Could they?

But look at their body of work (wins over Villanova and DePaul).  Could they steal a bid from a  9-9 team with a similar RPI/SOS but nothing impressive in the win column (cough cough MU)?

Or do the bad losses to Georgetown and DePaul coupled with the poor conference record override the marquee wins?

[BM1090]

I think St. Johns poses an interesting situation.

Let's say they pull off three more wins--certainly not out of the question based on the opposition (MU, SHU, Butler & Providence).

I said the win is against MU. In that case, they wind up with an RPI of 54, and an SOS of 5
They would probably still wind up 8th or 9th place with a record of 6-12.

As many here are fond of saying, there is no way a team with an RPI of 54 and and SOS of 5 from the Big East could be left out of the tournament.  Could they?

But look at their body of work (wins over Villanova and DePaul).  Could they steal a bid from a  9-9 team with a similar RPI/SOS but nothing impressive in the win column (cough cough MU)?

Or do the bad losses to Georgetown and DePaul coupled with the poor conference record override the marquee wins?

I think the 3 bad losses are too much to overcome. If they win out and avoid a bad loss in the BET, they are an interesting case.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

St. John's is playing itself back onto bubble. If they go 3-1 I think they make it. If they go 4-0 they will definitely make it.

Definitely did not see that coming.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

St. John's is playing itself back onto bubble. If they go 3-1 I think they make it. If they go 4-0 they will definitely make it.

Definitely did not see that coming.

At 6-12!? I don't see it.  I think they have to win out, and do serious damage in the BET (like make it to the championship game) to have a real shot. 

[BM1090]

At 6-12!? I don't see it.  I think they have to win out, and do serious damage in the BET (like make it to the championship game) to have a real shot.

If they win out T rank puts them as the 3rd team out.

[MerrittsMustache]

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on MU going 1-4 before I'd pick 4-1.

It pains me to say it, but this team just isn't all that good. They can shoot the lights out but there's not much beyond that aspect of the game that they do well.

[BM1090]

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on MU going 1-4 before I'd pick 4-1.

It pains me to say it, but this team just isn't all that good. They can shoot the lights out but there's not much beyond that aspect of the game that they do well.

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

This is about where I am.  Win on Saturday and I will be much more confident.

[MerrittsMustache]

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

For the record, I'd think that 2 or 3 wins is much more likely but if given only the choices of 1-4 or 4-1, I'd go with 1-4.

(Keep in mind that I'm typically pretty horrible at predictions)

[Its DJOver]

LoVett officially leaving St. John's, doubt the full story will ever come out.