Projected Big East Standings / BET Scenarios

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 11-2         HALL, NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (4-1)
Villanova 10-2     @PC, @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (6-0)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Providence 7-5     NOVA, @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-5)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-6      @X, DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-2)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-9           SJU, @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (1-5)
St. John's 2-11     @DEP, @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-5)

Villanova 16-2
Xavier 15-3
Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
Creighton 10-8
Marquette 9-9
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 6-12
Depaul 4-14
St. John's 2-16

If things go chalk (per T-RANK), which obviously they won't, I think things set up pretty great for MU.  They get the 6 seed in the BEt and avoid SJU in the Garden.  Match up with Seton Hall in the 3v.6 game, which obviously is a team we've matched up well with.  Seton Hall finishes 3rd in conference and we own a sweep over them. PC falls to 8-10, which is good, because they own the H2H tiebreaker over MU. 

T-Rank projects SJU to go 0-5 down the stretch, which I doubt will happen.  But if they go 1-4 and beat Depaul tonight, which I expect them to do, they'd get the 9 seed and Depaul the 10.

I don't see a 4-2 finish to league play for Hall.  If they end up 9-9, we win all H2H tie breakers with them.  If PC, Hall and Marquette all finish 9-9, MU wins the mini-conference. We'd likely finish with the 5 seed in this scenario and matchup with Butler or Creighton. That said, Hall finishing stong is a good thing for MU because we want our 2 wins over them to be in Quad 1.

Obviously a lot of basketball left to play, but I think at this point MU should be rooting for Providence to lose, SJU to finish ahead of Depaul, and Georgetown to stop winning games because that does no one any good. And of course Marquette to go 4-1 or 5-0!

[79Warrior]

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 11-2         HALL, NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (4-1)
Villanova 10-2     @PC, @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (6-0)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Providence 7-5     NOVA, @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-5)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-6      @X, DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-2)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-9           SJU, @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (1-5)
St. John's 2-11     @DEP, @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-5)

Villanova 16-2
Xavier 15-3
Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
Creighton 10-8
Marquette 9-9
Providence 8-10
Georgetown 6-12
Depaul 4-14
St. John's 2-16

If things go chalk (per T-RANK), which obviously they won't, I think things set up pretty great for MU.  They get the 6 seed in the BEt and avoid SJU in the Garden.  Match up with Seton Hall in the 3v.6 game, which obviously is a team we've matched up well with.  Seton Hall finishes 3rd in conference and we own a sweep over them. PC falls to 8-10, which is good, because they own the H2H tiebreaker over MU. 

T-Rank projects SJU to go 0-5 down the stretch, which I doubt will happen.  But if they go 1-4 and beat Depaul tonight, which I expect them to do, they'd get the 9 seed and Depaul the 10.

I don't see a 4-2 finish to league play for Hall.  If they end up 9-9, we win all H2H tie breakers with them.  If PC, Hall and Marquette all finish 9-9, MU wins the mini-conference. We'd likely finish with the 5 seed in this scenario and matchup with Butler or Creighton. That said, Hall finishing stong is a good thing for MU because we want our 2 wins over them to be in Quad 1.

Obviously a lot of basketball left to play, but I think at this point MU should be rooting for Providence to lose, SJU to finish ahead of Depaul, and Georgetown to stop winning games because that does no one any good. And of course Marquette to go 4-1 or 5-0!

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

[Newsdreams]

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

Still time left but yes looks like upset time

[Newsdreams]

Down goes Nova

[injuryBug]

PC just messed up your plan

[BM1090]

Seton Hall down 20 at X. I really think they end up 9-9. If we can win some games i do think we'll avoid the first day in the BET.

[burger]

We are declining just like Seton Hall.....

7th or 8th in the league......

Could be 9th if St. John's gets hot......

The most disappointing year in a long time.....

Enough talent to be top 4/5.....

It is what it is.....

Conference RPI is down to 5 Beast teams....maybe 6......

We are so so done......

[Newsdreams]

.......

[79Warrior]

We are declining just like Seton Hall.....

7th or 8th in the league......

Could be 9th if St. John's gets hot......

The most disappointing year in a long time.....

Enough talent to be top 4/5.....

It is what it is.....

Conference RPI is down to 5 Beast teams....maybe 6......

We are so so done......

There is not enough talent to compete in the top half of this conference. Not sure what you have been watching.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

How about Marquette just win some games. Easier than reading hypotheticals. Looks like Providence will beat Nova tonight btw.

Sorry to bother you.  If you don't like it, don't read it.  I will get off your lawn now.

PC just messed up your plan

Wasn’t a plan.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated with last night's results.

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 12-2         NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (3-1)
Villanova 10-3     @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (5-0)
Providence 8-5     @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-4)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-7      DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-1)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-10          @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (0-5)
St. John's 3-11     @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-4)


1. Villanova 15-3
2. Xavier 15-3
3. Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
4. Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
5. Creighton 10-8
6. Providence 9-9 (beats Marquette in tie breaker due to Nova win)
7. Marquette 9-9
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. Johns 3-15 (beats Depaul in tie breaker due to Nova win)
10. Depaul 3-15

[slack00]

If we don't go 4-1 over the next five games, I hope people don't say the projection wasn't correct.  Given those individual probabilities it's only 20% likely that MU goes 4-1 or better.  It's basically three coin flips at the end of the regular season.

5 wins:  3.06%
4 wins: 17.28%
3 wins: 34.09%
2 wins: 30.74%
1 win:  12.85%
0 wins:  1.99%

[BM1090]

Updated with last night's results.

Current standings with remaining schedule and projected remaining W-L (per T-RANK):

Xavier 12-2         NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP (3-1)
Villanova 10-3     @X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN (5-0)
Providence 8-5     @BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU (1-4)
Creighton 8-5      MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ (2-3)
Butler 7-7            PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL (3-1)
Seton Hall 6-7      DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT (4-1)
Marquette 5-8      @CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE (4-1)
Georgetown 5-9    X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA (1-3)
Depaul 3-10          @HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X (0-5)
St. John's 3-11     @MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC (0-4)


1. Villanova 15-3
2. Xavier 15-3
3. Seton Hall 10-8 (wins three way tie breaker)
4. Butler 10-8 (beats Creighton in tie breaker due to Nova win)
5. Creighton 10-8
6. Providence 9-9 (beats Marquette in tie breaker due to Nova win)
7. Marquette 9-9
8. Georgetown 6-12
9. St. Johns 3-15 (beats Depaul in tie breaker due to Nova win)
10. Depaul 3-15

I don't see SHU only losing 1 of 5 games to finish 10-8 there. Would assume a win over DePaul and 2-2 vs PC/SJ/NOVA/Butler.

If MU can win some games we could end up with a real cluster between 3-7 just like last year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I don't see SHU only losing 1 of 5 games to finish 10-8 there. Would assume a win over DePaul and 2-2 vs PC/SJ/NOVA/Butler.

If MU can win some games we could end up with a real cluster between 3-7 just like last year.

Agreed.  Just using TRANKs win %s to be consistent.   

A 3 way tie between Hall, PC and Marquette is ideal for us, because we'll win that mini-conference.

[StillAWarrior]

Just for the hell of it, I'm going to rank these based upon how likely I think the team is to achieve at least the "projected" record (with 1 being the most likely):


1 SJU (@MARQ, HALL, BUT, @PC) (0-4) (Obviously, they'll at least achieve this, but I think SJU will win at least one of these)

2 DePaul (@HALL, @NOVA, MARQ, @CRE, X) (0-5) (Obviously, at least achieve, but won't be surprised if they don't exceed it)

3 X (NOVA, @GTOWN, PC, @DEP) (3-1) (Wouldn't be surprised to see X run the table, but 3-1 seems pretty safe)

4 PC (@BUT, HALL, @GTOWN, @X, SJU) (1-4) (I think they'll get at least two wins here)

5 Creighton (MARQ, @BUT, NOVA, DEP, @MARQ) (2-3) (I figure they get at least two, but quite possibly more)

6 GU (X, PC, MARQ, @NOVA) (1-3) (Only because I think they'll pick up one game -- but that's probably it)

7 Butler (PC, CRE, @SJU, @HALL) (3-1) (would expect 2-2 or 3-1; this was probably the toughest one for me)

8 'Nova (@X, DEP, @CRE, @HALL, GTOWN) (5-0) (It's tough to go 5-0, and I think there's a decent chance they'll lose @X)

9 Marquette (@CRE, SJU, @DEP, @GTOWN, CRE) (4-1) (I hate to say it, but I'd be surprised if MU went 4-1; 3-2 or even 2-3 are more likely)

10 SHU (DEP, @PC, @SJU, NOVA, BUT) (4-1) (I'd be very surprised to see SHU go 4-1 down the stretch)

[The Equalizer]

I think St. Johns poses an interesting situation.

Let's say they pull off three more wins--certainly not out of the question based on the opposition (MU, SHU, Butler & Providence).

I said the win is against MU. In that case, they wind up with an RPI of 54, and an SOS of 5
They would probably still wind up 8th or 9th place with a record of 6-12.

As many here are fond of saying, there is no way a team with an RPI of 54 and and SOS of 5 from the Big East could be left out of the tournament.  Could they?

But look at their body of work (wins over Villanova and DePaul).  Could they steal a bid from a  9-9 team with a similar RPI/SOS but nothing impressive in the win column (cough cough MU)?

Or do the bad losses to Georgetown and DePaul coupled with the poor conference record override the marquee wins?

[BM1090]

I think St. Johns poses an interesting situation.

Let's say they pull off three more wins--certainly not out of the question based on the opposition (MU, SHU, Butler & Providence).

I said the win is against MU. In that case, they wind up with an RPI of 54, and an SOS of 5
They would probably still wind up 8th or 9th place with a record of 6-12.

As many here are fond of saying, there is no way a team with an RPI of 54 and and SOS of 5 from the Big East could be left out of the tournament.  Could they?

But look at their body of work (wins over Villanova and DePaul).  Could they steal a bid from a  9-9 team with a similar RPI/SOS but nothing impressive in the win column (cough cough MU)?

Or do the bad losses to Georgetown and DePaul coupled with the poor conference record override the marquee wins?

I think the 3 bad losses are too much to overcome. If they win out and avoid a bad loss in the BET, they are an interesting case.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

St. John's is playing itself back onto bubble. If they go 3-1 I think they make it. If they go 4-0 they will definitely make it.

Definitely did not see that coming.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

St. John's is playing itself back onto bubble. If they go 3-1 I think they make it. If they go 4-0 they will definitely make it.

Definitely did not see that coming.

At 6-12!? I don't see it.  I think they have to win out, and do serious damage in the BET (like make it to the championship game) to have a real shot. 

[BM1090]

At 6-12!? I don't see it.  I think they have to win out, and do serious damage in the BET (like make it to the championship game) to have a real shot.

If they win out T rank puts them as the 3rd team out.

[MerrittsMustache]

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on MU going 1-4 before I'd pick 4-1.

It pains me to say it, but this team just isn't all that good. They can shoot the lights out but there's not much beyond that aspect of the game that they do well.

[BM1090]

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on MU going 1-4 before I'd pick 4-1.

It pains me to say it, but this team just isn't all that good. They can shoot the lights out but there's not much beyond that aspect of the game that they do well.

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

This is about where I am.  Win on Saturday and I will be much more confident.

[MerrittsMustache]

Strongly disagree with 1-4 over 4-1. But I don't think 4-1 is particularly likely. I think 3-2 is more likely than 2-3.

For the record, I'd think that 2 or 3 wins is much more likely but if given only the choices of 1-4 or 4-1, I'd go with 1-4.

(Keep in mind that I'm typically pretty horrible at predictions)

[Its DJOver]

LoVett officially leaving St. John's, doubt the full story will ever come out.

[brewcity77]

Not surprised to see him leave. The only surprising aspect is how long it took.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 12-3 (@Gtown, vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 11-3 (vs. DEP, @CRE, @HALL, vs. Gtown)
Creighton 8-6 (@BUT, vs. NOVA, vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Providence 8-6 (@HALL, @Gtown, @X, vs. SJU)
Butler 8-7 (vs. CRE, @SJU, @HALL)
Seton Hall 7-7 (@PC, @SJU, vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Marquette 6-8 (vs. SJU, @DEP, @Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-9 (vs. X, vs. PC vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
St. Johns 3-11 (@MARQ, vs. HALL, vs. BUT, @PC)
Depaul 3-11 (@NOVA, vs. MARQ, @CRE, v. X)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK.  Obviously this will not play out exactly like this, it is simply looking at whoever is favored in each individual game.  For instance, Marquette is favored in 4/4 remaining games, but T-RANK has 3 of the 4 games as just slightly higher than 50% win probability (I personally find that Depaul win probability a little low).   

Xavier 15-3         [W (68%); W (82%); W (71%)]
Villanova 15-3     [W (95%); W (67%); W (70%); W (94%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (69%); W (59%); L (55%)]
Providence 10-8   [W (53%); L (55%); L (82%); W (66%)]
Marquette 10-8    [W (73%); W (57%); W (53%); W (57%)]
Creighton 9-9       [L (69%); L (67%); W (84%); L (57%)]
Seton Hall 8-10    [L (53%); L (51%); L (70%); W (55%)]
Georgetown 6-12  [L (68%); W (55%); L (53%); L (94%)]
St. Johns 4-14      [L (73%); W (51%); L (59%); L (66%)]
Depaul 3-15         [L (95%); L (57%); L (84%); L (71%)] 

In this scenario, MU would match up with PC in the 4/5 game. 

Even if Marquette were to lose to Creighton, and Seton Hall were to beat SJU (T-rank has that game basically as a coin flip), Hall and Marquette would both be 9-9, MU wins the tie breaker, and claims the 6 seed. If Butler beats Creighton as expected tonight, the 3 team tie for 3rd place would go 3) PC, 4) Butler, 5) Creighton, and MU would match up with PC in the first round in the 3/6 game.

A lot can still change, obviously. But still a lot of scenarios that work out favorably for Marquette if they can get to 9-9 or 10-8.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

One thing that is sort of interesting is that we definitely want Seton Hall to win games so that our home win over them stays a Q1 W.  But we also want to finish tied with them or ahead of them in the standings for BET placement purposes.  We're going be beat Hall in all H2H tie breakers, and likely in most mini-conference tie breakers.  Sort of an interesting dilemma that we'll need to keep an eye as things play out.

[Its DJOver]

That percentage for the St. John's game seem awfully high.  That game worries me more than any other remaining on our schedule.

[BM1090]

That percentage for the St. John's game seem awfully high.  That game worries me more than any other remaining on our schedule.

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

[Its DJOver]

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

While we're certainly capable of winning out, we've already won the reverse fixtures for our last three games.  Plus if we're not good enough to get a clean sweep of Georgetown and DePaul, even without Markus, we're in trouble.  If we win tomorrow I would feel fairly confident saying that we'll have a four game winning streak going into Senior day.

[KampusFoods]

Would not be surprised with 0-4 or 4-0, or anything in between.

[brewcity77]

Every game worries me. But we're perfectly capable of winning all of them too. I've stressed about it enough so I'm just going to watch and enjoy. Should be an interesting one tomorrow.

At this point, nothing would surprise me. Not even losing to DePaul. Every game left on the schedule is the second most important game of the season (after the evergreen VCU game).

[muguru]

Georgetown is the one that worries me the most...one day off after DePaul, early start in DC, they have been playing MUCH better.

[BM1090]

Georgetown is the one that worries me the most...one day off after DePaul, early start in DC, they have been playing MUCH better.

Tomorrow worries me. I think we'll win, but it worries me. DePaul worries me because this team hasn't shown it can sustain a conference win streak. Georgetown worries me for the reasons you stated.

Oddly enough, if we win those 3 then Creighton doesn't worry me as much. I think if we get to 9-8 we'll finish it off on Senior Day.

[MUBigDance]

Cliche among athletes and coaches..."the next one is the biggest one". But it really is true with St. Johns.

We should beat STJ but:
* I think about those back-2-back home losses...was sure we would win 1 and thought both...damaged my confidence.
* STJ has won a big road game...so they can.
* MU is a rollercoaster team this year...can we really win 5 in-a-row?  (we've had 4 I think?)

If we win WED then confidence goes way up for 9-9.

[brewcity77]

If we win tomorrow and Saturday, it will be Wojo's first three-game conference winning streak at Marquette.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Another thing to keep in mind is that SJU's RPI is 70.  They are currently a Q1 road loss and Q2 home (result TBD). 

If fall below 75 in RPI, our road loss to them is Q2 and tonight's would be a Q3 game.  SJU beating Butler and PC to end the season would be good.

[MUBigDance]

Obviously every Thursday and Sunday morning things are a lot clearer in the BE but here’s an easy prediction to make: 5 BE teams with 9 or 10 wins and they all get in the tourney.

Sure PV could go 3-1 being favored at home vs SH or BT 2-0 beating SH away.
Or MU losing 2. But hoping not.

Unless there’s an unspoken quota. All 5 would deserve it.

[Newsdreams]

Obviously every Thursday and Sunday morning things are a lot clearer in the BE but here’s an easy prediction to make: 5 BE teams with 9 or 10 wins and they all get in the tourney.

Sure PV could go 3-1 being favored at home vs SH or BT 2-0 beating SH away.
Or MU losing 2. But hoping not.

Unless there’s an unspoken quota. All 5 would deserve it.

Nope

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 13-3 (vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 12-4 (@HALL, vs. Gtown)
Seton Hall 9-7 (vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Creighton 9-7 (vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Butler 9-7 (@SJU, @HALL)
Providence 9-7 (@X, vs. SJU)
Marquette 7-9 (@Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-11 (vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
Depaul 4-12 ( @CRE, v. X)
St. Johns 3-13 (vs. BUT, @PC)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK. 

Xavier 15-3         [W (83%); W (72%)]
Villanova 14-4     [W (69%); W (95%)]
Providence 10-8   [L (83%); W (66%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (62%); L (54%)]
Creighton 10-8     [W (84%); L (58%)]
Marquette 9-9      [W (53%); W (58%)]
Seton Hall 9-9      [L (69%); W (54%)]
Georgetown 5-13  [L (53%); L (95%)]
Depaul 4-14         [L (84%); L (72%)] 
St. Johns 3-15      [L (62%); L (66%)]

A couple notes:

-We probably want SJU to knock off Butler or PC this week, preferably PC. If SJU ties with Depaul, they win the tie breaker due to their win over Nova, and then if MU ends up with 7, they play Depaul in the 7/10 game instead of SJU at the Garden.  We prefer SJU beat PC because knocking Butler down into the 9-9 tie breaker would hurt our chances in most tie break situations.

-Even if we go 1-1, there is decent chance we still end up with the 6 seed.  Seton Hall still has to play Nova and Butler, though both are at home. Obviously our at large chances would be shot at 8-10, but we'd have about as good of a draw as possible for the BET. 3 wins needed instead of 4, get PC (current projected 3 seed) in the first round.

[BM1090]

Updated standings through the weekend games with the team's remaining schedules:

Xavier 13-3 (vs. PC, @DEP)
Villanova 12-4 (@HALL, vs. Gtown)
Seton Hall 9-7 (vs. NOVA, vs. BUT)
Creighton 9-7 (vs. DEP, @MARQ)
Butler 9-7 (@SJU, @HALL)
Providence 9-7 (@X, vs. SJU)
Marquette 7-9 (@Gtown, vs. CRE)
Georgetown 5-11 (vs. MARQ, @NOVA)
Depaul 4-12 ( @CRE, v. X)
St. Johns 3-13 (vs. BUT, @PC)

Projected standings reflected below are based solely on individual projected win probabilities per T-RANK. 

Xavier 15-3         [W (83%); W (72%)]
Villanova 14-4     [W (69%); W (95%)]
Providence 10-8   [L (83%); W (66%)]
Butler 10-8          [W (62%); L (54%)]
Creighton 10-8     [W (84%); L (58%)]
Marquette 9-9      [W (53%); W (58%)]
Seton Hall 9-9      [L (69%); W (54%)]
Georgetown 5-13  [L (53%); L (95%)]
Depaul 4-14         [L (84%); L (72%)] 
St. Johns 3-15      [L (62%); L (66%)]

A couple notes:

-We probably want SJU to knock off Butler or PC this week, preferably PC. If SJU ties with Depaul, they win the tie breaker due to their win over Nova, and then if MU ends up with 7, they play Depaul in the 7/10 game instead of SJU at the Garden.  We prefer SJU beat PC because knocking Butler down into the 9-9 tie breaker would hurt our chances in most tie break situations.

-Even if we go 1-1, there is decent chance we still end up with the 6 seed.  Seton Hall still has to play Nova and Butler, though both are at home. Obviously our at large chances would be shot at 8-10, but we'd have about as good of a draw as possible for the BET. 3 wins needed instead of 4, get PC (current projected 3 seed) in the first round.

Thanks for this. One correction regarding the bolded: We cannot go 1-1 and get the 6 seed. Teams 1-6 all have 9 wins or more. We have 7. We need to go 2-0 to have a chance at better than 7th.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Thanks for this. One correction regarding the bolded: We cannot go 1-1 and get the 6 seed. Teams 1-6 all have 9 wins or more. We have 7. We need to go 2-0 to have a chance at better than 7th.

Yes, thanks.  Was thinking Hall was 8-8 when I typed that.