Strength of Schedule

[Clam Crowder]

Strength of schedule according to Real Time RPI is 11. RPI sitting at 53 now. A comparison for us from last year is Vanderbilt who made the tourney with a record of 19-15. Last year WE made the tournament at 19-12.....

We have 8 games left-3 of those I am sure many of us feel like will be L's right now.
Hall/Creighton x2

We have 4 that we are probably overconfident about:
Depaul/Gtown/SJU X2

We have 1 at home that is winnable but after last night we are all miserable:
PC

New Season starts Saturday....We have lost 5-7...
2 against Nova
1 against X
2 against Butler

The back end is much weaker but the team has to recover from the ass whoopings and physicality of the last 2 weeks

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

As I've said, and will continue to say, 9-9 is all that is needed to get in.  It may be Dayton (I tend to think it won't), but it'll be in. I'd bet a fair amount of coin on that. 

But that requires winning 5 more games, which seems like a tall task after yesterday.  They need to turn the page and get the W on Saturday, because I think 1-2 in the next three is likely (@SHU, @SJU, @CREIGHTON). That puts them at 6-8 with vs. SJU, @DEPAUL, @GTOWN, VS. CREIGHTON to finish the season.  3-1 there should get it done with a SOS in the 20s and RPI in the 40s.

Saturday is big, though.

[Clam Crowder]

Lunardi updated today and still has as last 4 byes. I hate ESPN but Lunardi is generally pretty accurate. PC is also in the last 4 byes. BIG BIG game Saturday. Crowd will be there, Team should be motivated-PC will also be motivated and won't be minus Bullock or having a hampered Cartwright. Kyron also had his worst game in ages yesterday so he will be extra motivated.

HUGE difference this year is the OOC schedule was not at all weak.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Yep,  as much as we want to chicken little last night's performance,  we are still projected to make the tournament and have a favorable schedule to do so. Last night was brutal but there's no reason to think that that is the team that will show up every night the rest of the way. It could just as easily be the team that crushed Seton Hall or pushed Nova to the brink... 3 days ago

[GGGG]

Yep,  as much as we want to chicken little last night's performance,  we are still projected to make the tournament and have a favorable schedule to do so. Last night was brutal but there's no reason to think that that is the team that will show up every night the rest of the way. It could just as easily be the team that crushed Seton Hall or pushed Nova to the brink... 3 days ago

STOP GIVING ME HOPE!!!!

[Clam Crowder]

STOP GIVING ME HOPE!!!!

When ESPN even has us in there's reason for hope. 19-15 for Vandy last year and they got in.....We have played 10/11 I dont feel like looking it up Q.1 games so far...I think we have 3 more left. If we get out of it with a 19/20 wins then we should get in.

[Its DJOver]

As bad as we played last night, PC possibly played worse.  Losing by almost the same margin albeit on the road against a better team, but two of their best players put up goose eggs.  As bad as last night was, the score Saturday will still start 0-0.  Chance to re-set

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lunardi updated today and still has as last 4 byes.

Yep.  And guess who is still behind MU - Virginia Tech, the team that all the haters are now saying they'd take in a heartbeat. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

Yep,  as much as we want to chicken little last night's performance,  we are still projected to make the tournament and have a favorable schedule to do so. Last night was brutal but there's no reason to think that that is the team that will show up every night the rest of the way. It could just as easily be the team that crushed Seton Hall or pushed Nova to the brink... 3 days ago

If only the FBI would speed up their incestigation.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If only the FBI would speed up their incestigation.

Ha. That could probably bump us to the 5 seed line.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Ran some numbers. To date we have a SOS of 11 as Clammy pointed out.

We got that 11 SOS despite playing winless Chicago State, gawdawful American, and some other blah opponents.

I dropped all of our games that we played so far to see what our SOS would be if we just played the remaining games on our schedule. It ended up at 40.

So despite not having games against cupcakes weighing the SOS down, our last 8 games are 29 points easier in SOS. That's how much easier our schedule is the rest of the way. We can do this.

[SaveOD238]

If only the FBI would speed up their incestigation.

Not what I expected to see the FBI start looking into, that's for sure...

[Tugg Speedman]

We are 4 - 6 (13 - 9) now.

Eight games left.

If we go 5 - 3 to finish 9 - 9 (18 - 12 overall) AND ... the five wins are 2 Depaul, 2 St. Johns, 1 Georgetown (lose 2 to Creighton and Providence)

... are we in the Tourney?

[MarquetteDano]

We are 4 - 6 (13 - 9) now.

Eight games left.

If we go 5 - 3 to finish 9 - 9 (18 - 12 overall) AND ... the five wins are 2 Depaul, 2 St. Johns, 1 Georgetown (lose 2 to Creighton and Providence)

... are we in the Tourney?

We only play DePaul once,  so to go 9-9 we need to either beat Prov, Hall, or Creighton in your scenario.

If that happened I would feel a lot more comfortable if we won a game in MSG.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

We are 4 - 6 (13 - 9) now.

Eight games left.

If we go 5 - 3 to finish 9 - 9 (18 - 12 overall) AND ... the five wins are 2 Depaul, 2 St. Johns, 1 Georgetown (lose 2 to Creighton and Providence)

... are we in the Tourney?

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out, theoretically possible with run in BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

[skianth16]

I dropped all of our games that we played so far to see what our SOS would be if we just played the remaining games on our schedule. It ended up at 40.

I'm surprised it's that high, honestly. I'm guessing Creighton really beefs that number up since they make up 25% of the remaining games. An SoS of 40 is much easier than 11, but it's no cakewalk.

[Tugg Speedman]

We only play DePaul once,  so to go 9-9 we need to either beat Prov, Hall, or Creighton in your scenario.

If that happened I would feel a lot more comfortable if we won a game in MSG.

Thanks for the correction

So, if 4 wins are 2 St. Johns, 1 DePaul and 1 Georgetown ...

We have to win at least one against Prov, Hall or 1 of 2 against Creighton.

Then we are a bubble team, correct?

Otherwise, we have to beat these (or similarly) rated teams in the BET.  ... and we are a bubble team.

So either way, we have to beat at least one more upper half BE team, two would be even better.

Agree with this?

[forgetful]

6-2: Lock
5-3: Should be in
4-4: Almost certainly out, theoretically possible with run in BET
3-5: Need to win the BET

I think we get 6-2 the rest of the way.  5-3 should be our floor. 

We should win:  @Depaul, @Georgetown, St. Johns, and @St. Johns.  I think we win home against Creighton and Providence. 

@Creighton and @Seton Hall are both winnable.  I actually figure we lose one of the above (@St. Johns or Georgetown), but win one of @Creighton and @Seton Hall. 

Our floor should hopefully be losing one of (@St. Johns or Georgetown) and losing both @Creighton and @Seton Hall.

[goldeneagle91114]

Thanks for the correction

So, if 4 wins are 2 St. Johns, 1 DePaul and 1 Georgetown ...

We have to win at least one against Prov, Hall or 1 of 2 against Creighton.

Then we are a bubble team, correct?

Otherwise, we have to beat these (or similarly) rated teams in the BET.  ... and we are a bubble team.

So either way, we have to beat at least one more upper half BE team, two would be even better.

Agree with this?

@ St. Johns will be a very tough test for this young team. I can easily see it as our first "bad" loss of the season...Then again after last night's performance, I don't think it will matter. This is not an NCAA Tourney team.

[BM1090]

@ St. Johns will be a very tough test for this young team. I can easily see it as our first "bad" loss of the season...Then again after last night's performance, I don't think it will matter. This is not an NCAA Tourney team.

It was our worst performance of the season, no doubt. Are we a tournament team? Idk. But just like I didn't get too high after we beat down SHU, I'm not gonna get too low after that performance last night

[Silkk the Shaka]

Thanks for the correction

So, if 4 wins are 2 St. Johns, 1 DePaul and 1 Georgetown ...

We have to win at least one against Prov, Hall or 1 of 2 against Creighton.

Then we are a bubble team, correct?

Otherwise, we have to beat these (or similarly) rated teams in the BET.  ... and we are a bubble team.

So either way, we have to beat at least one more upper half BE team, two would be even better.

Agree with this?

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Marquette&year=2018

Tugg, I suggest you play around with some remaining game combos here. Would provide a lot more insight than a bunch of us saying "yes we're in" "no chance" etc.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It was our worst performance of the season, no doubt. Are we a tournament team? Idk. But just like I didn't get too high after we beat down SHU, I'm not gonna get too low after that performance last night

Exactly. We are not going to be the team that pounded Seton Hall every night. We are not going to be the team that got eviscerated by Butler every night. Most nights we will be somewhere in between....a bubble team.

[Tugg Speedman]

http://www.barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Marquette&year=2018

Tugg, I suggest you play around with some remaining game combos here. Would provide a lot more insight than a bunch of us saying "yes we're in" "no chance" etc.

Interesting site.  Says we should go 6 -2 and wind up a 11 seed.

I'll take that

(8-0 and we are a 7 seed)

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Interesting site.  Says we should go 6 -2 and wind up a 11 seed.

I'll take that

(8-0 and we are a 7 seed)

10-8 was a 10 seed last year with considerably worse computer numbers. I'd be blown away if 10-8 was an 11 seed, but frankly I'd be fine with it (basically get the seeding of a 6 seed).

[Tugg Speedman]

10-8 was a 10 seed last year with considerably worse computer numbers. I'd be blown away if 10-8 was an 11 seed, but frankly I'd be fine with it (basically get the seeding of a 6 seed).

The site does figure in conference tourney games as they are unknown now.  So that will also change things.