Bubble Watch 2018

[MuMark]

Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference.....  didn't even make the NIT.

No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.

Have to earn it every year.

[MarquetteDano]

Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference.....  didn't even make the NIT.

No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.

Have to earn it every year.

Speaking of Buzz,  he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame.  That could take away another bid.  We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.

[GoldenDieners32]

Speaking of Buzz,  he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame.  That could take away another bid.  We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.

Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate

[LoudMouth]

Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate

Hell of a lot better than cheering for their opponent. Somehow Wisconsin will win in the match up between Va Tech and ND

[LoudMouth]

Any fear of BYU being a bid thief has vanished, getting absolutely pummeled. Would be great if St. Mary's was left out and the WCC only got the Zags

[auburnmarquette]

but beating Seton Hall and Creighton twice each was not really in the cards either...just what it is...

Exactly correct Nukem2. Nothing personal muguru, many make your same argument, but this argument of picking two underperformances out of 30 games drives me crazy. This would be like rolling a die 30 times and saying you won every time a 3 through 6 came up, and then being angry that on the 23rd and 28th roll it came up as a loss.

Part of analytics is that you are going to be several points above the prediction and several points below the prediction over the course of a lot of games.

At DePaul, Marquette was an underdog in Vegas. I typed that I understood that spread. On February 7 we were a 6-point underdog at www.kenpom.com and on February 17 we were a 7-point underdog against Creighton and at one point the www.kenpom.com in-game percentage gave Marquette a 3% chance to come back and win the game - so Marquette pulled off bigger upsets than their opponents this season. So to say almost any loss is avoidable is technically correct, you cannot avoid around 6 underperformances and 6 overperformances a year. The great teams are just so much better than most of their opponents that they pull out most games.

For all those who make jokes about not playing the season and just going by the preseason rankings - kenpom ranked Marquette 49th before the season (which I thought was too high at the time) and MU is 50th now and could finish above or below that mark based on the BE tournament.

So based on the preseason rating at kenpom, we would have expected MU to be in the basic position they are now - on the bubble heading into the conference tournament. No looking back - just look ahead and hope we can win.

[HelfaerWarrior]

Where is the like button?  Great post.

[skianth16]

Any fear of BYU being a bid thief has vanished, getting absolutely pummeled. Would be great if St. Mary's was left out and the WCC only got the Zags

They started out playing well and had me worried. Giving up something along the lines of a 25-4 run in the first 10 minutes of the second half made me feel much better.

[rocket surgeon]

Cheering for VATech? Thats just unfortunate

Cue up the dueling banjos😳 and take one for the team, enn'a heyoooo noooooooooo

[Floorslapper]

Exactly correct Nukem2. Nothing personal muguru, many make your same argument, but this argument of picking two underperformances out of 30 games drives me crazy. This would be like rolling a die 30 times and saying you won every time a 3 through 6 came up, and then being angry that on the 23rd and 28th roll it came up as a loss.

Part of analytics is that you are going to be several points above the prediction and several points below the prediction over the course of a lot of games.

At DePaul, Marquette was an underdog in Vegas. I typed that I understood that spread. On February 7 we were a 6-point underdog at www.kenpom.com and on February 17 we were a 7-point underdog against Creighton and at one point the www.kenpom.com in-game percentage gave Marquette a 3% chance to come back and win the game - so Marquette pulled off bigger upsets than their opponents this season. So to say almost any loss is avoidable is technically correct, you cannot avoid around 6 underperformances and 6 overperformances a year. The great teams are just so much better than most of their opponents that they pull out most games.

For all those who make jokes about not playing the season and just going by the preseason rankings - kenpom ranked Marquette 49th before the season (which I thought was too high at the time) and MU is 50th now and could finish above or below that mark based on the BE tournament.

So based on the preseason rating at kenpom, we would have expected MU to be in the basic position they are now - on the bubble heading into the conference tournament. No looking back - just look ahead and hope we can win.

Great post. It is beyond peculiar how predictive Pomeroy has become. Will be interesting to see where we rank next preseason.

[Lennys Tap]

At least they hired a guy with high major experience instead of going with a top assistant.

Yeah, they hired the guy Chico wanted instead of Buzz.

[HelfaerWarrior]

I was never a Buzz hater (actually liked him when he was our guy) but I thought the way he left was ugly.  He and Larry Williams was a toxic combo.

Here's hoping the once-fat-hick-philosopher brings the wood to the domers tomorrow.

[Boozemon Barro]

Speaking of Buzz,  he and his team could do a real screw job with us Wed. night by losing to Notre Dame.  That could take away another bid.  We all have to cheer for Va Tech tomorrow night.

[Dish]

MU was not a dog at DePaul, MU was -3.5 that day.

Accordingly enough, MU is giving 6 at the Garden to the Blue Demons tomorrow.

[MU82]

Big Va Tech fan tomorrow. Easiest one of these supposedly "tough calls" I've had to make all season.

I have absolutely no ill will toward Buzz. I got a great deal of enjoyment from watching his Warriors play. His tenure at MU ended in a shytty way ... which puts him on par with most.

Meanwhile, I hate ND. Always have, always will. Plus, not that I needed ANOTHER reason to hate ND, but they can take a tourney spot from us.

I didn't see the Fraudulent Irish barely get past a horrible Pitt team, but from the sound of it they were hardly worthy of the "let's get them in the tourney because Bonzi is back" push taking place on ESPN and elsewhere.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

So here's something I found interesting about looking at the raw RPI numbers on rpiforecast.com.  There are twenty-one teams with an rpi between 0.5700 and 0.5800.  That is every team ranked 44-64 in RPI within a difference of .01.

For comparison, .01 is also the difference between #1 Virginia and #3 Xavier (0.6715 and 0.6615).  That is how incredibly close things are on the bubble.  Twenty-one teams separated by a very small amount.

[auburnmarquette]

Ouch - can't link from my phone, but lunardi did a post on what each team needed to do and believes we are out unless we beat nova. Sorry I'd this was posted - I just saw it.

[Windyplayer]

I'm going to have to work through this one emotionally with a few gournal entries.

[dgies9156]

Cheering for VATech?

There has to be a better way!

[brewcity77]

There has to be a better way!

I have two better ways:

1: Cheer against Notre Dame.
2: Consider Buzz to still owe Marquette and this is a chance for him to pay that debt.

[MUBigDance]

I always cheer for Buzz. Except against MU, want VAT to win.

[LoudMouth]

So here's something I found interesting about looking at the raw RPI numbers on rpiforecast.com.  There are twenty-one teams with an rpi between 0.5700 and 0.5800.  That is every team ranked 44-64 in RPI within a difference of .01.

For comparison, .01 is also the difference between #1 Virginia and #3 Xavier (0.6715 and 0.6615).  That is how incredibly close things are on the bubble.  Twenty-one teams separated by a very small amount.

Yup it's crazy close. The games that have a "marginal impact" on our RPI can make a world of difference

[muguru]

Buzz's last season we were the preseason top 20 and picked to win the conference.....  didn't even make the NIT.

No such thing as playing for seeding before the season starts.

Have to earn it every year.

Really?? there isn't?? C'mon mark, you're a smart guy, and follow college BB...you honestly can't look at a teams talent coming in a following year and say to yourself "barring something catastrophic, injuries etc), that's easily an NCAA tournament team?? I sure can..You didn't think MU's 2003 Final Four team was an NCAA team before the season started?? I sure did..Or the three amigos teams?? Or some of Buzz's teams?? There is absolutely playing for seeding before the season starts..I can find at least 20 teams every year when the season starts that unless something totally unforeseen happens, are virtual locks to make it in...and are playing for seeding.

[brewcity77]

Really?? there isn't?? C'mon mark, you're a smart guy, and follow college BB...you honestly can't look at a teams talent coming in a following year and say to yourself "barring something catastrophic, injuries etc), that's easily an NCAA tournament team?? I sure can..You didn't think MU's 2003 Final Four team was an NCAA team before the season started?? I sure did..Or the three amigos teams?? Or some of Buzz's teams?? There is absolutely playing for seeding before the season starts..I can find at least 20 teams every year when the season starts that unless something totally unforeseen happens, are virtual locks to make it in...and are playing for seeding.

Your own post contradicts itself. Something unforeseen happens around the country every year. Notre Dame is an example this year. The Kentucky team that went to the NIT. When Coach K missed most of Duke's season. I'm confident if you go through annual preseason top-10 to 15 teams, you'll find at least one team a year that is playing for its postseason life by February.

[MUMonster03]

Your own post contradicts itself. Something unforeseen happens around the country every year. Notre Dame is an example this year. The Kentucky team that went to the NIT. When Coach K missed most of Duke's season. I'm confident if you go through annual preseason top-10 to 15 teams, you'll find at least one team a year that is playing for its postseason life by February.

Doing a quick look just last year Preseason Top 25 not making tourney; Indiana 11/11, UConn 18/16, Syracuse 19/17, and Texas 21/22.