Bubble Watch 2018

[GGGG]

There are objective reasons to include Marquette.  There are objective reasons to exclude Marquette.  We just don't know what the committee will emphasize.  We find out Sunday.

[frozena pizza]

Screw Lunardi.  He's been subtlely trolling the Big East all year.

I don't know if we will be in or not but we have as good a case as all these other bubble teams.  I won't be mad if we don't get in but the annoying part to me is that we were 5-3 against Creighton, Providence, Butler and Seton Hall and they all appear to be safely in the field.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.

The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.

If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.

I agree with you. I just don't trust the committee.

[mu03eng]

I agree with you. I just don't trust the committee.

Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean people aren't out to get you.

[auburnmarquette]

Screw Lunardi.  He's been subtlely trolling the Big East all year.

I don't know if we will be in or not but we have as good a case as all these other bubble teams.  I won't be mad if we don't get in but the annoying part to me is that we were 5-3 against Creighton, Providence, Butler and Seton Hall and they all appear to be safely in the field.

I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.

[brewcity77]

I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.

Possibly St John's if Duke lands on the 1 line. Xavier 3 times, Nova 2 times, Duke 1. Obviously they aren't in the bubble conversation, though.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I also can't believe any other team played 6 no.1 seeds, which could happen with Nova 3 times, Xavier 2 and purdue 1.

I agree with this, 7 of Marquette's losses are to RPI top 14 teams.  6 to RPI top 9. 

But Purdue isn't getting a 1 seed.  I think the last #1 is down to either Duke or Kansas, whoever wins their conference tourney.

[injuryBug]

Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.

The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.

If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.

I have been saying that all we stack up very well.
Do this with comparison with the teams around us and you will see

cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison

[frozena pizza]

I have been saying that all we stack up very well.
Do this with comparison with the teams around us and you will see

cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/team-comparison

That's the hard part.  Comparable to the other bubble teams, definitely yes.  Just not clearly better.

[esotericmindguy]

Yes, they've lost 7 times to top 14 teams. They're also 5-4 vs. tournament teams not in the top 10, or 5-3 vs. teams not in top 15. That's pretty damn good and shows they deserve to be in the play-in game if you ask me. 

[Jay Bee]

FWIW, avg opp RPI of Quad I losses: #mubb 8.5; Louisville 15.2; Alabama 34.0; Oklahoma 35.8.

[Silkk the Shaka]

FWIW, avg opp RPI of Quad I losses: #mubb 8.5; Louisville 15.2; Alabama 34.0; Oklahoma 35.8.

I like it. Does the committee view that way?

[Its DJOver]

URI and Cinci, both up at half, although neither lead looks too comfortable.  We cant afford any bid thiefs

[GoldenDieners32]

MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.

My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska

Via Kerry Miller Twitter

[auburnmarquette]

Thanks TAMU Eagle and wisblue for your posts to help me sort out the 13 potentials vying for 7 spots. The tables are much easier to read with the explanation at the link, but here is the breakdown.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2018/03/waiting-in-auburn-in-mu-jersey-for-noon.html

7 of 13      Palm   Lunardi   Matrix   SOR   Dance   Ave.   Today
Alabama   10   5   9   11   1   7.2   Auburn Noon +6
Arizona State   9   10   6   13   11   9.8   Done
Baylor   12   13   8   4   10   9.4   Done
Louisville   5   7   7   3   9   6.2   Done
Marquette   3   12   10   2   5   6.4   Done
MTSU   8   6   4   6   2   5.2   Done
Notre Dame   11   9   13   10   13   11.2   Done
Oklahoma   4   4   1   1   3   2.6   Done
Oklahoma State   13   8   11   5   12   9.8   Done
Saint Mary's   2   3   5   7   8   5   Done
Syracuse   7   11   12   9   4   8.6   Done
USC   6   1   2   12   6   5.4   Oregon 10:30 pm -3
UCLA   1   2   3   8   7   4.2   Arizona 8 pm +3

Six other games cold matter today, as they three conferences that would "steal" a bid with a surprise champion are the Mountain West, Atlantic 10, and American Athletic. The nightmare scenario would be Oregon winning the Pac-12, someone besides Nevada winning the MW, someone besides St. Bonaventure or Rhode Island winning the A10, and someone besides Cincinnati, Wichita State or Houston winning the AAC. If all four of those things happened, then only three of the 13 teams above would logically make the tournament.

Need to win   Conf   Today
Nevada   MW   SD St 8 pm -4
Rhode Island   A10   VCU 11 am -8
St. Bonaventure   A10   Rich 5 p.m. -9
Cincinnati   AAC   SMU 11 am -8
Wichita State   AAC   Temple 6 pm -9
Houston   AAC   UCF 8 pm -8

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.

My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska

Via Kerry Miller Twitter

I completely agree with this list with 1 exception.  Providence is in.  Oklahoma should be in the list of 14 instead. 

I am working on my blind resume test.  Those are my 14 teams for 7 spots (with trading Providence for Oklahoma).  I suppose I could do 15 teams for 8 spots and include PC, but I don't see any way they're left out at this point.

[auburnmarquette]

MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.

My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska

Via Kerry Miller Twitter

Posted at same time, my Cracked Sidewalks post with link in previous just left Nebraska off your list as out and Providence off the list as in. I also have Oklahoma on the bubble as opposed to in.

[muguru]

We have to remember why the quad system was  put in place to begin with. It is meant to emphasize Road wins and neutral Court wins. If you look at teams around MU..like Baylor, UL etc..MU went 9-8 in road/neutral games..some of these other bubble teams have a horrible Road/neutral record..IF thats a tiebreaker so to speak..MU may just have an advantage.

[cheebs09]

MO, there are 14 teams fighting for the final 7 spots in the field.

My ranking of those 14 teams:
Alabama
USC
Oklahoma State
Providence
Arizona State
Marquette
UCLA
----cut line----
MTSU
Saint Mary's
Louisville
Baylor
Syracuse
Notre Dame
Nebraska

Via Kerry Miller Twitter

On that same account he says our LSU, Creighton, and Seton Hall wins don't look as good as they once did.

He also said Louisville is 0-11 against the RPI Top 50.

It's really going to come down to what criteria the committee is using as a tie breaker. I hope it's road/neutral record and SOS. If it's top wins, we are in trouble.

ETA: guru get out of my head. Totally agree on the road/neutral. It seems like every year the interview with the chair highlights a random tie breaking criteria for bubble teams. Hopefully it's a metric we look good in.

[injuryBug]

We have to remember why the quad system was  put in place to begin with. It is meant to emphasize Road wins and neutral Court wins. If you look at teams around MU..like Baylor, UL etc..MU went 9-8 in road/neutral games..some of these other bubble teams have a horrible Road/neutral record..IF thats a tiebreaker so to speak..MU may just have an advantage.

Yes the more i compare the bubble teams the more I like MU

[auburnmarquette]

all three games going our way but only by 4 points each. wait, Auburn up 6 :-)

[BM1090]

Honestly, I find myself agreeing with Palm's view of the cutline more than others. All of the teams he has out should be out, in my opinon

[BM1090]

Bama has the All-American Hair team, that's for sure.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

BLIND RESUME TIME! 16 teams for 9 spots.  Please, if you know who the team is....please keep it to yourself until I reveal the names.  It just ruins it for everyone else if people start telling everyone what team is what.  Just refer to the team #s or the exercise is pointless.  If you want teams, PM me.

Team 1
Q1: 2-9
Q2: 5-2
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric (RPI/POM/SAG/KPI/SOR/BPI): 46
SOS: low 40s

Team 2
Q1: 6-9
Q2: 3-3
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 41
SOS: mid 20s

Team 3
Q1: 3-8
Q2: 2-3
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS:  mid teens

Team 4
Q1: 3-2
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 6-2
Q4: 10-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: high 80s

Team 5
Q1: 4-12
Q2: 3-1
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 44
SOS: high teens

Team 6
Q1: 2-1
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 10-2
Q4: 14-0
Avg Metric: 40
SOS: 160s

Team 7
Q1: 1-6
Q2: 1-3
Q3: 10-1
Q4: 10-0
Avg Metric: 56
SOS: mid 90s

Team 8
Q1: 6-7
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 6-3
Q4: 2-0
Avg Metric: 48
SOS: mid single digits

Team 9
Q1: 4-5
Q2: 5-4
Q3: 7-0
Q4: 6-1
Avg Metric: 43
SOS: Lows 50s

Team 10
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 4-4
Q3: 5-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 20s

Team 11
Q1: 3-3
Q2: 2-1
Q3: 4-2
Q4: 11-1
Avg Metric: 49
SOS: mid 80s

Team 12
Q1: 3-6
Q2: 5-3
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 6-0
Avg Metric: 42
SOS: mid 50s

Team 13
Q1: 3-4
Q2: 4-6
Q3: 8-1
Q4: 5-0
Avg Metric: 52
SOS: low 70s

Team 14
Q1: 4-8
Q2: 5-1
Q3: 7-1
Q4: 4-2
Avg Metric: 51
SOS: low 20s

Team 15
Q1: 3-11
Q2: 2-2
Q3: 8-0
Q4: 7-0
Avg Metric: 37
SOS: mid teens

Team 16
Q1: 5-12
Q2: 4-2
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 8-0
Avg Metric: 57
SOS: high 40s


REMEMBER....9 TEAM DANCING. 7 GOING TO THE NIT.

[GoldenDieners32]

Bama has the All-American Hair team, that's for sure.

Need auburn to win