Bubble Watch 2018

[forgetful]

In the eyes of the committee, that's true, but they're still typically a pretty reliable gauge for understanding how good a team is. Right now, 3 of the projected 1 seeds are in the top 4 in the rankings, for example. Generally speaking, if a team is ranked in the top 25, they're considered a lock for the tournament. For a team to be ranked #20 in the AP or coaches' poll at year end and not make the tournament would be pretty shocking. Further, for a team to be a top 25 in KenPom and not make the tournament would have to be a historic snub.

2004 Utah State:  22 in rankings, 25-3 record.  Missed the NCAAs
2014 SMU: 23 in rankings, 23-8 record.  Missed the NCAAs

If Saint Mary's losses to BYU, they won't be ranked in the top 25 anymore.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

It means 65 people who follow college basketball for a living think, on average, St. Mary's is one of the best 20 teams in the country. But you're right, the results of a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living doesn't illuminate anything about the upcoming decisions to be made by...a committee of people who follow college basketball for a living.

Certainly wouldn't be the first time a team ranked didn't get a bid. And being a sportswriter that covers 1 team doesn't qualify a large number of those guys to rank teams. I think (at least certainly hope) the committee is a little better at it than Joe Smith the sports page guy from the Starksville Herald.

[LoudMouth]

They also have Loyola as the 29th best team in the nation. I would find it hard to believe they get an at-large had they not won their tournament

[skianth16]

They also have Loyola as the 29th best team in the nation. I would find it hard to believe they get an at-large had they not won their tournament

'

They had a shot. They're 26 in RPI and 42 in KenPom. That's a reasonable team to give an at-large to.

[PGsHeroes32]

'

They had a shot. They're 26 in RPI and 42 in KenPom. That's a reasonable team to give an at-large to.

I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary's team

That's said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids

[skianth16]

I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary's team

That's said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids

Haha, how do you really feel? BYU is giving them all they can handle right now, up 9 with 8 minutes to play.

As bad as St. Mary's SOS is, every other metric would say they're probably in. Even if they drop this game, I still think there's a decent argument in their favor. I think our resume is way better, to be sure, but I think St. Mary's has a realistic chance.

[BM1090]

I want BYU to win to see if the committee has the balls to leave out this clearly undeserving St Mary's team

That's said, also runs the risk of BYU shocking Gonzaga and this garbage conference getting 3 bids

Yeah. Gonzaga over BYU is the dream result for us. But BYU over Gonzaga could be a nightmare. BYU up 12 with 6 mins left. SM in a ton if trouble.

[skianth16]

I don't remember anyone linking or referencing Warren Nolan's site when talking through stats and projections, but I've found it to be a helpful source in the last few days. I think the team scorecards are a pretty good summary that are more helpful than some of the more popular sites like ESPN or CBS Sports.

I thought some fellow Scoopers might find it useful in the days leading up to Selection Sunday.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2018/rpi-live

[Litehouse]

BYU over St. Mary's, so Go Zags tonight!

[wisblue]

SMC will be an interesting test of how the Committee values the computer metrics because that is about the only thing in its favor. Their wins in Q1 and Q2 games are very weak, as is their SOS, both OOC and overall.

Personally, I would leave them out, and it wouldn't be close. All they've done is pile up wins against crappy teams without being tested by many good ones. It doesn't look like they even try to schedule decent teams for their OOC games.

[muguru]

Lunardi says they'd still be in...

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970902354907234304

And says he doesn't think MU gets in going 1-1

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970903112629268480

[cheebs09]

We are huge Gonzaga fans tonight.

I keep going back to Lunardi dropping us after we went 3-1 with Creighton and Seton Hall road wins I believe. If one win against Gonzaga on the road is enough for SMC, those two wins should be enough for MU. It just seems like these bracket guys aren't being consistent and are kind of taking some stabs in the dark and coming up with some interesting logic.

[DUNKS45]

We are huge Gonzaga fans tonight.

I keep going back to Lunardi dropping us after we went 3-1 with Creighton and Seton Hall road wins I believe. If one win against Gonzaga on the road is enough for SMC, those two wins should be enough for MU. It just seems like these bracket guys aren't being consistent and are kind of taking some stabs in the dark and coming up with some interesting logic.

I hope you're right, going to be an interesting week. Let's take care of business Wednesday.

[LoudMouth]

Interesting here... In KenPom Notre Dame (sucks) is 27. St Mary's is 29. Penn state is 30. Baylor is 33 and Louisville is 34. IMO none of those teams are tourney teams. Hoping KenPom doesn't play a huge factor this year

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If the committee values what they always trumpet as their key criteria, St. Mary's should be out. Outside of @Gonzaga, which is a very nice win, their top wins are BYU(2x), New Mexico State, Harvard and UNC Asheville. At it gets really ugly really fast.

They didn't play anybody. Didn't play outside of Cali in noncon. Lost to both high majors they played, one decent team and one bad team. Their resume just isn't good at all. That said, if I had to bet, I say they're still in.

[brewcity77]

Yeah. Gonzaga over BYU is the dream result for us. But BYU over Gonzaga could be a nightmare. BYU up 12 with 6 mins left. SM in a ton if trouble.

St Mary's resume is incredibly weak. It was rather ironic that by losing to BYU, it improved BYU's RPI enough so that SMC's previous road win at BYU is now a second Q1 win for them.

Even still, 2 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins, 24 combined Q3/4 wins (15 in Q4!). And not only that, they turned down chances to play quality mid and high majors, so the lack of heft is their own fault.

[skianth16]

St Mary's resume is incredibly weak. It was rather ironic that by losing to BYU, it improved BYU's RPI enough so that SMC's previous road win at BYU is now a second Q1 win for them.

Even still, 2 Q1 wins, 2 Q2 wins, 24 combined Q3/4 wins (15 in Q4!). And not only that, they turned down chances to play quality mid and high majors, so the lack of heft is their own fault.

Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

[GGGG]

Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

A lot of mid-majors pass on buy games on principal.  I can't find the article, but one talked about how the Missouri Valley is trying to get its members to not accept those types of arrangements and how it may have cost Illinois State an at-large last year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Do you know what games they turned down? I feel like we always hear mid-majors complain about how hard scheduling can be, so if they're passing on games, they deserve to be on the outside looking in.

They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.

Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.

[Galway Eagle]

They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.

Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.

Then they don't deserve to make the tournament

[brewcity77]

They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.

Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.

Those were the ones I was thinking of. The proposed URI series started as a home and home offer. When SMC balked at that, URI suggested having a two game neutral court set and they still said no. They have no one to blame but themselves for scheduling. I hope they get left out, because I can't find any way to argue their resume ahead of a team like Marquette.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

They bought out a road game at Grand Canyon.

Passed on neutral court 2 game set with Rhode Island and a home and home with Nevada.

With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid.  I hope the committee is aware.

[mu03eng]

With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid.  I hope the committee is aware.

They are, and I'm not going to be even a little shocked if SMC doesn't make it. The committee puts a very strong emphasis on play tough teams, which is why MU's SoS is a very critical piece in our favor. SMC is gonna get Illinios State'd this year.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

With that information there is no way St. Mary's deserves a bid.  I hope the committee is aware.

I would imagine they are.  If not, they're certainly aware that their 3rd best win is New Mexico State, and 4th best win UNC Ashville, and 5th best win is Harvard, and 6th best win is UC Irvine, and 7th best win is ABD, and 15 of their wins are of the quad 4 variety. 

You get the point. St. Mary's should be in the NIT.  But I'll believe it when I see it.

[goldeneagle91114]

Lunardi says they'd still be in...

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970902354907234304

And says he doesn't think MU gets in going 1-1

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/970903112629268480

Not what we wanted to hear, but can't say i disagree with him. As much as i would enjoy making the NCAA this year, I also wonder if the NIT would be a better option for this young/inconsistent team.