Is MU's tourney resume worse than last season?

[bilsu]

Both Seton Hall and X are better than last year.

Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.

[BM1090]

Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.

Well, this just doesn't make any sense. But I hope you're right because if they finish 7th that means we're pretty solid and top 6.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Seton Hall is not better this year. They have fallen out of the rankings and I predict they will finish 7th in Big East Conference.

I do love that our fanbase seems to always insist that every team we beat is crap and every team we lose to is crap. Or said another way that every team we play is terrible and that there is no excuse for us to ever lose and every team we do beat we should have beat by more.

Seriously though I have heard multiple comments to this effect from multiple posters this season about:
Purdue (currently ranked #3 in the country)
Wichita State (currently ranked #17 in the country)
LSU (bubble team)
Georgia (bubble team)
Vermont (top 75 team in KenPom)
Wisconsin (accurate)
Xavier (currently ranked #8 in the country)
Georgetown (accurate)
Providence (currently receiving votes for top 25)
Butler (currently receiving votes for top 25)
DePaul (accurate)

I didn't hear them specifically about any of the buy games or VCU but I assume that's because we all know they suck without it being spoken. Apparently every team we play but Nova is terrible. And even the Nova game there were a few people who insisted we shouldn't have lost by 10 in Philly.

[tower912]

7 losses.  5 to ranked teams.  The only game Butler has lost at home all year is to Xavier.  The closest thing to a bad loss was to Georgia.    When MU played cupcakes, there was complaints.   This year, MU's SOS is great.  Sometimes, when you play good teams, you lose.   When you play in an elite conference, you play elite teams.  Sometimes you lose.
Marquette is a team with weaknesses.  But it is right where it needs to be for a postseason bid.

[skianth16]

7 losses.  5 to ranked teams.  The only game Butler has lost at home all year is to Xavier.  The closest thing to a bad loss was to Georgia.    When MU played cupcakes, there was complaints.   This year, MU's SOS is great.  Sometimes, when you play good teams, you lose.   When you play in an elite conference, you play elite teams.  Sometimes you lose.
Marquette is a team with weaknesses.  But it is right where it needs to be for a postseason bid.

I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.

Of course we could be in trouble!   If we lose the majority of the games left on our schedule, we're in trouble!!

And disagree about big wins.  Every team in the BE outside Depaul, Gtown and SJU this season is a big win.  A win @SHU is a huge win.  A win @Creighton is a huge win. 

As TAMU said, you're too concerned about individual results.  Get to 10 wins, we'll be a 7-9 seed, maybe better if we do damage in the BET.  Go 9-9, we're likely still in.  8-10, we've got a chance, but wouldn't count on it.  Its that simple.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'll be more confident in March if we have a better leg to stand on than simply not losing bad games. We could be a .500 team this year with no bad losses, so I don't know how strong that argument is. Outside of Sunday, we don't have any more opportunities to get any head-turning wins with the possible exception of playing at Creighton if they can improve some between now and then. Drop one of the games against SJU or Depaul, and we could be in some trouble.

If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.

Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.

If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.

You are overcomplicating it:

10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out

[MerrittsMustache]

Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!

ugh, lol.

[jesmu84]

LOT of whiners in here

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Let's face facts here. The Nova win got MU into the Tourney. If MU loses that game, they finish at 9-9 in the BE and without a signature win. In other words, NIT bound!

Not if you replace the Nova win with another one. I'd have to run the numbers but I think if you change the Nova win to a loss but change any other loss to a win Marquette still makes the tournament.

[mayfairskatingrink]

If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.

Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.

If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.

You are overcomplicating it:

10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out

Beating a team that isn't ranked at home is a head-turning win?

[Newsdreams]

Beating a team that isn't ranked at home is a head-turning win?

Tired of all the crying in the Becky board?

[T-Bone]

IT'S A CRAPSHOOT!

[The Equalizer]

If you're definition of "head turning win" is limited to beating the number 1 team in the country or beating the #8 team in the country on the road....than very few teams have headturning wins.

Beating Seton Hall at home and Providence on the road are both head turning wins.

If we add wins like vs Butler, vs Providence, @Seton Hall, @Creighton, vs Creighton those are also head turning wins.

You are overcomplicating it:

10-8 or better: Stone Cold Lock
9-9: Probably in
8-10: Probably out
7-11 or worse: out

I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.

With our body of work:

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.

[fjm]

Yep.  Love talking about seeding and our resumé.

Having said that, there are a bunch of guys here (Tamu and Jjjjjjjj and Brew) that have done the research, ran the numbers and know that 9-9 likely puts us in. (Maybe first 4 on a Tuesday night in... but in.)

And I'm inclined to trust those guys because they were dead right last year.

Then there are people who keep bringing up the same arguemebts that the SHU win wasn't good enough and the PC game away wasn't good enough.

It's amazing but some here must feel we will only ever make the tourney if we beat the #1 or #8 teams. Can't wait to see how bad our resume is after Sunday if we lose (which we won't cause we got this shiz)

[mu03eng]

I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.

With our body of work:

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.

No, the numbers are right. We know enough that if MU finished in the Big East at 10-8 and was not in the tournament it would be a historic, unprecedented snub by the committee. We would be in the top 48 in every category that counts for tournament appearance, there is no way to not be in.

9-9 requires some help, but would not be unprecedented.

8-10 I tend to agree that it's definitely out because we either only beat Georgetown/St John's/DePaul down the stretch OR we lose at least one of those games which would actually be more negative than winning one against the mid-tier teams.

[skianth16]

No, the numbers are right. We know enough that if MU finished in the Big East at 10-8 and was not in the tournament it would be a historic, unprecedented snub by the committee. We would be in the top 48 in every category that counts for tournament appearance, there is no way to not be in.

Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.

[MUBigDance]

LOT of whiners in here

- - - - - - thought 1
Lot of Whiners
Lot of Whiners about Whiners
Lot of Whiners about Whiners about Whiners - I think I fit here 

- - - - - - thought 2
I Have always looked to "Making the Tourney" as my definition of MU success...its a legit way of thinking but I'm getting dissatisfied with the approach. Lets Beat Nova for the sheer glory of it. like Katin last year (was lower bowl...wow).

So trying to wait on tourney speculation until we hit 9 wins.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.

With our body of work:

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.

This is wrong. The world doesn't exist in a vacuum.

Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.

There are predictive models. If MU goes 10-8, they're gonna be top 50 in RPI with a top 30 SOS, no horrific loses (perhaps no bad losses); and they'll be top 50 in kenpom, Sagrin or any other meaningful analytics ranking you want refer. Finish with a winning record in a top 3 (at minimum) conference top to bottom with a true round robin schedule. There is no way that team gets left out. Look around the game. What conferences are racking up these bids that a 10-8 BE with a legit non con slate gets left out?

It would be purely unprecedented and it's not going to happen.

[mu03eng]

Is there a simple way to explain how you can know that we'd be in the top 48 in relevant categories? It seems to me like there are too many teams and too many variables that can move around in the next 6 weeks to have that kind of certainty.

Simple explanation is math(statistics and probabilities to be fair). There are no combinations in which we finish 10-8 AND things like our SoS and RPI can fall below the necessarily level. Anything more than that is a long explanation

[mu03eng]

This is wrong. The world doesn't exist in a vacuum.

This is untrue, our world literally exists within a vacuum #SpaceJoke

[Herman Cain]

Overall I would say our resume this year is roughly the same as last year. My projection is we will continue to play well, benefit from the order of teams played on the schedule , finish 3rd in the Big East. Do well in the Big East tournament and Make the NCAA tournament.

I think we are going to be on of those teams that no one wants to face in the tournament.  The Big 3 are perfect tournament players. There is little prep time in the tournament and we have seen when opponents focus on one of the Big 3 the others still do well. When they  all get hot, the other team will be demoralized. The rest of our line up will play its role well. All of our freshman will be Big East battle tested by the time the tournament rolls around.

I see us peaking at the right time and getting to the second weekend of the tournament.

[Newsdreams]

I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.

With our body of work:

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.

A 10-8 BE team will not be left out of the dance this year. It has been already established that tournament results do little to influence selection committee unless team is borderline and needs a win or make a run to the finals. If we are 10-8 we'll be in, a loss in tournament might affect our seeding and that is about it.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I think you're one game too optimistic at each record.

With our body of work:

10-8 is only probably in. Its possible that 10-8 could be a 4 or 5 way tie for 3rd or 4th place. If we wind up with the 7th place seed in that group, and lose our first round game (against the 10 seed), we're not in, period.  And even if we don't have the 7 seed, a 6 seed with a first round loss would make for a very uncertain situation.  Its not a lock.

9-9 is probably out--especially with a first round BET loss.  Our RPI won't be good enough.  Contrary to popular believe, losing to Georgia hurt us a lot more that losing to Wichita State could make up.

8-10 is definitely out, barring winning the automatic bid.

10-8 with a loss to the 10th place team (likely St. John's) would currently put us at 19-12 with 49 RPI and 29 SOS. If you find me a high major team that was left out with that resume than I will believe you.

9-9 before the BET currently gives us an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26. As I said in my post, a first round BET loss could put this in jeopardy but you're insisting that our resume wouldn't be good before the BET. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 51 and an SOS of 26 and I will believe you.

8-10 would likely get us the 7th seed in the BET. A win against the 10th seed (likely St. John's), would lead to a matchup with the 2 seed (likely Xavier), a win their would result in a matchup with the 3/6 seed, assuming the 3 seed advances (likely Seton Hall) and we lose that would currently put our RPI at 53 and SOS at 19. Again, find me a high major team that has gotten left out with an RPI of 53 and an SOS of 19 and I will believe you. And this doesn't even include the possibility that we could beat the 3 seed and then lose in the championship (RPI 44, SOS 12 assuming Villanova makes the championship).

The Big East is very strong this season. Our non-conference schedule was very strong this season and that is a huge boost to our computer numbers.

Oh, and regarding the bolded. Our current RPI is 51 and SOS is 34. Since you are so insistent that beating Georgia was more important than beating VCU I decided to test your theory. I switched Georgia to a win, VCU to a loss, dropped the Wichita State/LSU games and substituted in a win against Cal and a loss against Michigan. Our numbers changed to RPI 57 SOS 53. Even if we beat Michigan our numbers would be RPI 44 SOS 53, a worse resume. If we had played LSU that team that was "supposed" to be in the 5th place game the numbers are even worse. It wasn't about getting to lose to Wichita State. It was about not losing to a resume killer like VCU and having to play an even bigger resume killer in Cal.

[Ws against VCU/LSU with Ls against WSU/UGA] is a better outcome than [Ws against UGA/CAL with Ls against VCU/MICH]