Is MU's tourney resume worse than last season?

[94Warrior]

2016-17: 

Non-conf losses:  Michigan, Pitt, Wisconsin (3)
Non-conf notable wins:  Vanderbilt, Georgia (2) 

In conference (different result):  W vs. Xavier, W @ Xavier, L @ Prov
In conference (same result) wins:  Home vs. Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall
In conference (same result) losses:  @ Villanova, @ Butler 

(9-3) in Non-conf, (5-3) In Conference vs common opponents.


2017-18:

Non-conf losses:  Purdue, Wichita St, Georgia (3)
Non-conf notable wins:  VCU, LSU, Vermont, Wisconsin (4)
In conference (different result):  L vs. Xavier, L @ Xavier, W @ Prov
In conference (same result) wins: Home vs. Georgetown, DePaul, Seton Hall
In conference (same result) losses: @ Villanova, @ Butler 

(9-3) Non-Conf, (4-4) In Conference vs common opponents.

This season's SOS and RPI is better.

Our record to date (when comparing common conference opponents) is one game worse.   

We have two more notable non-conference wins (if we can count UW) this season.

However, we are one game behind our pace last season in conference by beating Prov on the road, but getting swept by Xavier.

Obviously, our signature win last season was our home win vs. Nova, and we have yet to get a signature win this season.  Sunday is vitally important to our tournament resume.

If we lose to Nova, we need to hold serve by sweeping Creighton, DePaul, and winning at home vs SJU.

Games where we need to make up ground.  Last season we lost @ Seton Hall, vs Prov, @ SJU, vs Butler, @ Georgetown.

Clearly, there is some work to be done.

[BM1090]

No.

We don't have the quality wins yet that we had last year. We also don't have any bad losses. Last year we lost to Pitt which turned out to be a bad loss.

The formula is the same as it has been all year. Sweep the remaining 4 against DePaul, Georgetown and SJU. Win 2/3 against Butler, PC and Creighton at home. We're in and probably with a better seed than last year.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Too early to say.  End of season resume is all that matters.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think we're in better shape this year versus last.  Computer numbers are stronger.  You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57). 

Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament. 

We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year.  The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap.  A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it. 

As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins.  Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape.  1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.   

[brewcity77]

I think we're in better shape this year versus last.  Computer numbers are stronger.  You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57).

This is key. Vermont is a significant win and a good bit of scheduling. Better than Fresno State last year.

Another key is the buy games. 6 effective buy games last year & 3 sub-300. This year, 5 effective buy games & 2 sub-300. We effectively replaced a buy game with a high major thanks to three games in Maui.

[fjm]

I think we're in better shape this year versus last.  Computer numbers are stronger.  You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57). 

Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament. 

We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year.  The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap.  A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it. 

As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins.  Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape.  1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.

Someone on twitter hit on this, MU is the only team to have played. Both nova and X 2 times in the first half of big east play.

No other team has played either of them more than once.

So we are still right where we thought we'd be with a loss this weekend.

[We R Final Four]

Both Seton Hall and X are better than last year.

[LAZER]

I think we're in better shape this year versus last.  Computer numbers are stronger.  You are also not counting Vermont which is a quality win (Kenpom: 67; RPI: 57). 

Not sure 9-9 would have gotten us in last year. I think it does this year. Obviously 10-8 would feel much more comfortable going into BE tournament. 

We've also had a more difficult start to conference play than we did last year.  The fact that at the halfway point of conference season we're going to be down with X and Nova is big feather in our cap.  A win on Sunday would obviously be monumentally huge, but I'm not expecting it. 

As MUeagle said, just take care of business against the bottom of the conference and we're at 8 wins.  Find way to steal 2 of the 6 remaining games (4 of which are at home), and we're in great shape.  1/6 and we've got a good chance of making it still.

I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being  PC,  STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.

[mu03eng]

Short answer is no. Long answer is we can't answer it with the data set you've provided. Our conference schedule difficulty was backloaded last year whereas it is front loaded this year. Yes we're one game worse record-wise but it's also against a harder schedule(last year average KenPom ranking was 51.38 versus this season to date being 47.12).

Additionally, all the data sets indicate that we can perform against the middle and low Big East teams, winning more than we lose. The fact that X and Nova will be in the review mirror before we get to February means we have lots of opportunities to get good wins with solid probabilities (as opposed to great wins with low probabilities, see Nova last season).

[94Warrior]

Someone on twitter hit on this, MU is the only team to have played. Both nova and X 2 times in the first half of big east play.

No other team has played either of them more than once.

So we are still right where we thought we'd be with a loss this weekend.

True.  But, last year we went 3-1 vs X and Nova.  This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday.  It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.

[fjm]

True.  But, last year we went 3-1 vs X and Nova.  This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday.  It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.

Fair point

But last year X was also hit by injuries and therefore not nearly as strong as this year.

[mu03eng]

True.  But, last year we went 3-1 vs X and Nova.  This year we will be 0-4 with a loss on Sunday.  It doesn't help to get them out of the way, if they are all losses.

Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being  PC,  STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.

Meh.  Other teams will lose too.  I'd certainly feel more comfortable at 10-8, but if we sweep PC, we're going to be clearly ahead of them in the pecking order.  I see basically no scenario where the BE gets only 5 bids unless MU and PC both finish under .500 and Gtown turns it on a gets to 9 or 10 wins. 

At the end of the day, they need to fill the field.  In a couple weeks, I will start analyzing the bubble, but I just don't see who is going to sneak ahead of a 9-9 MU team (if MU sweeps PC).   

[fjm]

Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.

Context?
You talking red delicious apples or Honey crisp?

You talking crappy Hershey's dark chocolate or the good Godiva stuff?

[GB Warrior]

Any time you don't have a win over the best team in the country, your resume is going to look worse. I think the consistency of this team (even if it doesn't feel that way) has us under the radar a bit. We have no tremendous wins and we have no (0) BAD losses. We're even steven.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Any time you don't have a win over the best team in the country, your resume is going to look worse. I think the consistency of this team (even if it doesn't feel that way) has us under the radar a bit. We have no tremendous wins and we have no (0) BAD losses. We're even steven.

Seton Hall is a pretty good win.  They are 20 in RPI.  Pundits down on PC right now, but they're one of the best 15-20 teams in the country.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I can see 9-9 being a problem if our remaining wins end up being  PC,  STJ x 2, @ DePaul, @GU.

This scenario would currently net us an RPI of 52 and SOS of 26. I'd be a tad bit nervous but I'd expect to get in provided no disasters in the BET or a crap ton of bracketbusters.

Our resume is a lot stronger this season because our non-conference and the Big East are a lot better than last year.

[skianth16]

Last years X was considerably worse than this years X. They were KenPom ranked 31st team last year, which was built on them being full strength before they almost lost it because of injuries....which is when MU played them. They are 13th this year. Apples and dark chocolate bars.

Lat year we got wins; this year we got losses. 2 losses to a better X team have to be worse for us than 2 wins over a worse X team last year. There's no way a 20 point difference in ranking for teams we lose to can improve SoS/RPI enough to outweigh a win over a lower ranked team is there?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Lat year we got wins; this year we got losses. 2 losses to a better X team have to be worse for us than 2 wins over a worse X team last year. There's no way a 20 point difference in ranking for teams we lose to can improve SoS/RPI enough to outweigh a win over a lower ranked team is there?

X last year is more like PC this year.  X is a legit final 4 contender.  Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time. 

[mu03eng]

X last year is more like PC this year.  X is a legit final 4 contender.  Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time.

This

[skianth16]

X last year is more like PC this year.  X is a legit final 4 contender.  Last year they were a back-end top 25 team that ended up on the bubble and got hot at the right time.

I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.

Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.

[BM1090]

I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.

Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.

Think this is fair but we also have an additional road win over a top 40 team (@PC) that we didn't have last year

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.

Kind of hard to take this stance when we're dealing with an incomplete data set.  I think the answers have been laid out pretty clearly in this thread.  Now the games just need to be played.

[mu03eng]

I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.

Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.

This is correct. Minimum viable results for the schedule after the 9 day break is:
0-2 against @X and Nova (currently 0-1)
2-3 against Creighton, @Creighton, Butler, @Seton Hall, Providence
4-0 against @Georgetown, @St John's, St John's, @DePaul

That gets us to 10-8 with same or more quality wins than last year and no bad losses. Dancing as one of the last teams in. I see no reason why this isn't totally possible with this team.

If we go 3-2 in the middle tier we're 11-7, top 4 in Big East and Dancing with a mid to high seed.

#RespectTheProcess

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I still go back to pointing out that 2 wins over a top 25-ish team is much better for our resume than losing 2 to a final 4 contender. So if we're comparing our tournament credentials from last year to this year, it seems to me like we're in worse shape now.

Even though the SH win this year is probably better than one of our wins over X last year, I still think we'll need to get one more from SH or PC to have a resume similar to last year. Without our win over Nova last year, we may not have made it. So we might be in a similar spot this year if our biggest W of the year is against SH.

It's a lot more simple than you are making it.

If we go 10-8 we are a stone cold lock, impossible to be left out.

If we go 9-9 we are likely in barring a bad loss in the BET and/or a lot of bracketbusters.

If we go 8-10 we are likely out but could sneak in with some wins in the BET and few to none bracketbusters.

At this point, it doesn't matter who the wins and losses come against.