[Paint Touches] Plus/minus leaderboard

[PaintTouches]

I've had a lot of people ask for the plus/minus on court splits for Marquette players, but had 0 luck trying to automate the process. So here's the manual version for Big East play. I'll try to have the updated results of each game up within a day or two. 

Without looking, can anyone guess who has the best +/- through 2 games? (Then feel free to look.)

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Surprised by Cain's numbers.

[mu03eng]

I've had a lot of people ask for the plus/minus on court splits for Marquette players, but had 0 luck trying to automate the process. So here's the manual version for Big East play. I'll try to have the updated results of each game up within a day or two. 

Without looking, can anyone guess who has the best +/- through 2 games? (Then feel free to look.)

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

Without looking, I'd guess that Sam has the best +/-

[PaintTouches]

Updated through the Nova game. Some interesting trends starting to show up.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

For example, Heldt's played 23+ minutes in MU's wins, sub 13 minutes in the losses. That doesn't mean play Heldt more, as he was bad (in a +/- sense) against both X and Nova, but that the team may be at it's best with him on the floor a majority of the time. 

Also, the past 2 games Rowsey is -15 in just under 57 minutes while Elliott is +5 in 59 minutes. Granted, they were Rowsey's worst games in a while, but I do think we will start seeing fewer Howard/Rowsey combos for long stretches going forward. Putting Elliott on the ball makes this a completely different team defensively.

As always, individual +/- stats are stupid and only tell you so much.

[Dr. Blackheart]

At 143.8, Heldter Skeldter is the #1 offensively efficient player in the USA, per Pomeroy.  Brunson is breathing his dust at #2.  Say what you will about his abilities, but when in the game, Matty doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

Of course, his usage is almost nil, but this shows his hustle can be valued.

[Galway Eagle]

At 143.8, Heldter Skeldter is the #1 offensively efficient player in the USA, per Pomeroy.  Brunson is breathing his dust at #2.  Say what you will about his abilities, but when in the game, Matty doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

Of course, his usage is almost nil, but this shows his hustle can be valued.

M2N was actually about Heldt

[PaintTouches]

Update bump with a new leader atop the board. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

[Bocephys]

Update bump with a new leader atop the board. You'll be pleasantly surprised.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

Did I miss the first, "Actually Markus' scoring run is bad for the team" take or is someone still searching for the ALL CAPS key to post it?

[jesmu84]

Did I miss the first, "Actually Markus' scoring run is bad for the team" take or is someone still searching for the ALL CAPS key to post it?

Here you go...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55306.msg978301#msg978301

[Bocephys]

Here you go...

https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55306.msg978301#msg978301

Thanks!  I knew I'd missed it.  Not quite as scorching hot as I like my takes, but it'll do.

[PaintTouches]

Update bump. Two observations:

1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.

2) Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/Elliott are +22 in 57 minutes. Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/not Elliott are -13 in 65 minutes. I think we see Elliott in the starting lineup before the end of the season.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

[#UnleashSean]

Update bump. Two observations:

1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.

2) Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/Elliott are +22 in 57 minutes. Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/not Elliott are -13 in 65 minutes. I think we see Elliott in the starting lineup before the end of the season.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

Wojo has shown to not change the starting lineup unless he is super desperate (Which is why we saw so much of Fischer starting and barley any of Rowsey last year)

[tower912]

Wojo has shown to not change the starting lineup unless he is super desperate (Which is why we saw so much of Fischer starting and barley any of Rowsey last year)

Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest.    Next game, Heldt took over for Fischer and JjJ never got off the bench.    Three counterarguments would be (1) he wants the players to know their roles, (2) he will ride the hot hand and starting doesn't matter that much, and (3) how often has he truly had viable alternatives?

[MattyWarrior]

Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do

[GGGG]

Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do

I doubt it's his competitiveness.  He just isn't as good a player.

[GGGG]

Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest.    Next game, Heldt took over for Fischer and JjJ never got off the bench.    Three counterarguments would be (1) he wants the players to know their roles, (2) he will ride the hot hand and starting doesn't matter that much, and (3) how often has he truly had viable alternatives?

Which means they may look at changes after Monday.  Good time to implement them.

[mug644]

Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do

I think it is because we play different opponents. His game doesn't vary much, and so it is inconsistently successful, depending on who we play. He plays hard every game, but the results are sporadic.

[Herman Cain]

Greg Elliott is my favorite player on the team.  He is a game changer. These stats further that notion.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Update bump. Two observations:

1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

Simple.  When Heldt stays home on defense (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Wisconsin double downs), MU has its best defensive games. When he is pulled out 10-15 feet above the circle on high hedges, the vortex of this defense opens wide up.  For example, SJU stayed home on defense last night with three in the paint and limited Nova to 18 PIP and took them to the wire.

If Wojo stays with his high pressure defense, play Heldt/Froling more with teams with bigs. Go small with Elliott and Cain against teams like Butler.  I thought the short line up with Sam at center got MU back in the game versus Nova.

[jsglow]

Simple.  When Heldt stays home on defense (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Wisconsin double downs), MU has its best defensive games. When he is pulled out 10-15 feet above the circle on high hedges, the vortex of this defense opens wide up.  For example, SJU stayed home on defense last night with three in the paint and limited Nova to 18 PIP and took them to the wire.

If Wojo stays with his high pressure defense, play Heldt/Froling more with teams with bigs. Go small with Elliott and Cain against teams like Butler.  I thought the short line up with Sam at center got MU back in the game versus Nova.

I agree.

[Hards Alumni]

Greg Elliott is my favorite player on the team.  He is a game changer. These stats further that notion.

Careful, if you make that sort of claim people will jump up your ass.   

[#UnleashSean]

Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest.   

That was the desperation I was talking about.

Wojo has definitely has viable options. Rowsey should have been starting day 1 last year, Fischer and JJJ should have been taken off the starting rotation when it became apparent they were hurting the team early in games.

This year its very apparent that John >>>>> Heldt in most games.

Starting does matta. playing with an inferior lineup for the first 4 minutes of each game is not a smart thing to do.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

That was the desperation I was talking about.

Wojo has definitely has viable options. Rowsey should have been starting day 1 last year, Fischer and JJJ should have been taken off the starting rotation when it became apparent they were hurting the team early in games.

This year its very apparent that John >>>>> Heldt in most games.

Starting does matta. playing with an inferior lineup for the first 4 minutes of each game is not a smart thing to do.

Starting mattas in the same way FTs matta, sure on some microscopic level they do but really doesn't impact the game. The first four minutes are not more important than any other four minute stretch.

But John has not been better than Matt most of the season. Matt's offense is much more efficient, their rebounding is similar, but Matt schools John in defense at this point. In 92 defensive possessions Matt has allowed 80 points for a very average .870 dPPP. In 39 defensive possessions, Theo has allowed 37 points for a very poor .949 dPPP, mostly due to his high foul rate. Theo gets the highlight blocks but Matt is the much better defender at this point.

Harry is the one that I think should be losing minutes to Theo at this point. Unless his shot starts going down, his defense is even worse than John's and while his rebounding is better, it's not better enough to justify his time.

[PaintTouches]

Update bump:

https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/

[Its DJOver]

Does Cam not get a plus minus for the DePaul game?