Resume

[Clam Crowder]

Anyone recall where we were last year entering/after 1 game of conference play?
Right now:
RealTime RPI has us as 73
Ken POM has us at 51
Our "best wins" would be: UVM, LSU, VCU, Wisco
RPI for those teams: 85, 118, 112, 130
Ken POM for those teams: 74, 75, 96, 69
SOS per RealTimeRPI at 50

Right now we have 1 top 100 win, 0 top 50 wins and a sub 200 RPI coming into our place on Saturday. Good news however is PC, St Johns, Hall, Nova, Butler all are top 50 RPI right now-Creighton just outside at 55. Ample chances for quality wins in the Big East.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

9 Big East wins will give MU plenty of quality wins, even if 4 of them are against GT and Depaul. 

The resume will take care of itself if MU can get to 9 or more wins.

[mu_hilltopper]

(I like this KenPom free alternative: http://www.barttorvik.com/team.php?team=Marquette&year=2018)

.. Indeed, MU will have plenty of chances for top 50/100 wins. 

It's amazing (and sad) how well the MUScoop community has become at PBA:  Precision Bubble Analysis.   

[Jay Bee]

Anyone recall where we were last year entering/after 1 game of conference play?
Right now:
RealTime RPI has us as 73
Ken POM has us at 51
Our "best wins" would be: UVM, LSU, VCU, Wisco
RPI for those teams: 85, 118, 112, 130
Ken POM for those teams: 74, 75, 96, 69
SOS per RealTimeRPI at 50

Right now we have 1 top 100 win, 0 top 50 wins and a sub 200 RPI coming into our place on Saturday. Good news however is PC, St Johns, Hall, Nova, Butler all are top 50 RPI right now-Creighton just outside at 55. Ample chances for quality wins in the Big East.

Remember, the team sheets have new quadrants that adjust for location of game

[HammerScreen]

Quad 1 wins: 0
Quad 2 wins: 1 (@Wisconsin)
Quad 3 wins: 3 (VCU, LSU, Vermont)
Quad 4 wins: 5 (MSM, Eastern Ill., Chicago St., Northern Ill., American)

[MUfan12]

10 BE wins gets them in fairly comfortably. Top 40 RPI and SOS.

[HammerScreen]

Agree with MUfan12, 10 wins and we're in. We currently have 0 bad losses on our resume, something that almost always differentiates teams on the bubble. Let's go get that W tomorrow

[MerrittsMustache]

10 BE wins gets them in fairly comfortably. Top 40 RPI and SOS.

Likely true...but do you see this team getting 10 BE wins? As much as I want to, I just don't.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

10 BE win and this team will be in the 7-9 seed range. 

[MUfan12]

Likely true...but do you see this team getting 10 BE wins? As much as I want to, I just don't.

I do, particularly as Harry gets his sea legs and the freshman continue to develop.

[BM1090]

Likely true...but do you see this team getting 10 BE wins? As much as I want to, I just don't.

I see 9 as very realistic. So we'll see. 10 is possible.

Georgetown X2
DePaul X2
Providence
Butler
SJU
SHU
Creighton

then just one of @ PC, @ Butler, @ SJU. It's very doable.

[brewcity77]

10 BE win and this team will be in the 7-9 seed range.

Yeah, 10 is a lock. We've discussed this, but 9-9 gives us a good shot provided we don't lose a BET game to Georgetown or DePaul. Depending on how soft the bubble is, it isn't inconceivable that we could get in at 8-10.

[Newsdreams]

Likely true...but do you see this team getting 10 BE wins? As much as I want to, I just don't.

I could see us sweep GT, DePaul, Butler, split St. Johns, Providence, Creighton, Hall, that gives us 10.

[mu_hilltopper]

Yeah, 10 is a lock. We've discussed this, but 9-9 gives us a good shot provided we don't lose a BET game to Georgetown or DePaul. Depending on how soft the bubble is, it isn't inconceivable that we could get in at 8-10.

Curious, Brew .. does it at all matter who those 10 wins are against?  I mean .. if all 10 were against the 5 worst teams in the BE, no problem?

[Newsdreams]

Curious, Brew .. does it at all matter who those 10 wins are against?  I mean .. if all 10 were against the 5 worst teams in the BE, no problem?

We would have to at least beat Creighton, Hall, Providence to get to 10 wins and those project to be pretty good wins (Providence could under perform depending on injury issues)

[dw3dw3dw3]

10 wins with Froling seems like it should be a minimum expectation.  Enough skill and versatility now to play through some foul trouble and compete against bigger lineups.  A little too much pressure on Rowsey and Howard to defend at a high level but emergence of Harry and Cain as potential shooters will hopefully negate having one of them on the bench. 

[MuMark]

Anyone recall where we were last year entering/after 1 game of conference play?
Right now:
RealTime RPI has us as 73
Ken POM has us at 51
Our "best wins" would be: UVM, LSU, VCU, Wisco
RPI for those teams: 85, 118, 112, 130
Ken POM for those teams: 74, 75, 96, 69
SOS per RealTimeRPI at 50

Right now we have 1 top 100 win, 0 top 50 wins and a sub 200 RPI coming into our place on Saturday.

Good news however is PC, St Johns, Hall, Nova, Butler all are top 50 RPI right now-Creighton just outside
at 55. Ample chances for quality wins in the Big East.



At the end of week 8 last year our RPI was 106......our projected RPI was 181. Our RPI finished at 67. Non conference SOS was 168.....as of now our non conference SOS is 78. Week 8 ends after the Georgetown game.

[brewcity77]

Curious, Brew .. does it at all matter who those 10 wins are against?  I mean .. if all 10 were against the 5 worst teams in the BE, no problem?

I really don't think it matters at all. Especially with the new NCAA win valuation guidelines. The NCAA now breaks it down into Quadrant wins. Here are the Quadrants:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus

So currently we stand at the following using RPI Forecast, with the number of remaining games in each quadrant in parentheses:

Quadrant 1: 0-3 (10)
Quadrant 2: 2-0 (3)
Quadrant 3: 2-1 (3)
Quadrant 4: 5-0 (1)

The 4 remaining games in Quadrants 3-4 are all against Georgetown or DePaul. To get to 10 wins, we are assuming all wins in Quadrants 2-4 as well as picking up 3 wins in Quadrant 1. Say we drop any of those games in the bottom three quadrants, even DePaul at home, to reach our magic number of 10 we would have to add a Quadrant 1 win. I'm confident that would more than offset any loss we have in the lower quadrants.

For the quick breakdown, the "most likely win assumption is the following:

Georgetown x2
DePaul x2
St. John's x2
Butler (home)
Providence (home)
Seton Hall (home)
Creighton (home)

Any permutation of that wouldn't significantly hurt us. Losing to DPU or GT would suck, but to get to 10 wins it either means adding a Quadrant 1 road win (Butler, Providence, SHU, or Creighton) or a win over XU or 'Nova. Any of those would offset that loss. If we lose more than one Quadrant 2-4 game but still reach the magic number of 10, it means more Quadrant 1 wins that offset the loss.

[mu_hilltopper]

Great analysis.  Not sure why we even play the games.

[warriorchick]

Great analysis.  Not sure why we even play the games.

Playing the actual games is kind of a waste of time if you actually think about it.

[Jay Bee]

I'm not convinced the committee is reasonable enough to weigh such things, but they are free to use this type of perspective.. if MU gets hot late in the year with Harry, early losses such as UGA can be somewhat forgiven.

#WeIn

[vogue65]

Reading Scoop is a waste of time, just a bad habit.

What is our game plan for tonight?

What is G's game plan, do they even have one?

Oh, what was X's game plan?  To shut down Markus and let Rowsey beat you? 

What is the book (not the bookies book) on us?

Enough with the metric analysis, what's the strategy?

[real chili 83]

Reading Scoop is a waste of time, just a bad habit.

What is our game plan for tonight?

What is G's game plan, do they even have one?

Oh, what was X's game plan?  To shut down Marcus and let Rosey beat you? 

What is the book (not the bookies book) on us?

Enough with the metric analysis, what's the strategy?

We score more than them.

[🏀]

Reading Scoop is a waste of time, just a bad habit.

What is our game plan for tonight?

What is G's game plan, do they even have one?

Oh, what was X's game plan?  To shut down Marcus and let Rosey beat you? 

What is the book (not the bookies book) on us?

Enough with the metric analysis, what's the strategy?

Posting after too much drinky is a bad habit.

[vogue65]

1:41 Wisconsin time, 7:41 AM my time, time for a nap, tonights game starts at 2230 my time.
Good to have TUNEIN.