MLB 2018 Season

[buckchuckler]

Enjoy.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=darviyu01&t=p&year=0&post=1

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Enjoy.


https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=darviyu01&t=p&year=0&post=1

Thanks?

[🏀]

Thanks?

He's pointing out that he's terrible in relief, in the World Series.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

He's pointing out that he's terrible in relief, in the World Series.

Ah. Thanks.

[buckchuckler]

He's pointing out that he's terrible in relief, in the World Series.

Well,  the problem is those outongs weren't relief.  They just looked like it because he couldn't get out of the 2nd inning. 

For contrast

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arrieja01&t=p&year=0&post=1

Not sure how Darvish is an upgrade.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Well,  the problem is those outongs weren't relief.  They just looked like it because he couldn't get out of the 2nd inning. 

For contrast

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=arrieja01&t=p&year=0&post=1

Not sure how Darvish is an upgrade.

You're putting a lot of stock into those two performances?

The industry as a whole considers him an upgrade.

The Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta has hurt his market. Who would know him better?

[MUBurrow]

He's pointing out that he's terrible in relief, in the World Series.

When he was tipping pitches.

[buckchuckler]

You're putting a lot of stock into those two performances?

The industry as a whole considers him an upgrade.

The Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta has hurt his market. Who would know him better?

If I my goal was winning a World Series, I would put some stock in those performances.  In 100% of his appearances in the World Series, he was a BP pitcher. 
I can't lie, I do find the Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta a bit puzzling as he has been their best pitcher in well, maybe ever, certainly in the last 20 years and he doesn't get the respect of Carlos Zambrano from cub fans. 

The who know him better thing is ridiculous.  For 100 different reasons, number 1 probably being Scott Boras.

[buckchuckler]

When he was tipping pitches.

Typically not a good trait in a pitcher.  Especially when he can't correct it.

And it was more than that.   Watch thise outings.  His breaking stuff was completely lacking in depth and break.

[wadesworld]

If I my goal was winning a World Series, I would put some stock in those performances.  In 100% of his appearances in the World Series, he was a BP pitcher. 
I can't lie, I do find the Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta a bit puzzling as he has been their best pitcher in well, maybe ever, certainly in the last 20 years and he doesn't get the respect of Carlos Zambrano from cub fans. 

The who know him better thing is ridiculous.  For 100 different reasons, number 1 probably being Scott Boras.

Number 1 being PEDs. Number 2 being Scott Boras.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

If I my goal was winning a World Series, I would put some stock in those performances.  In 100% of his appearances in the World Series, he was a BP pitcher. 
I can't lie, I do find the Cubs lack of interest in Arrieta a bit puzzling as he has been their best pitcher in well, maybe ever, certainly in the last 20 years and he doesn't get the respect of Carlos Zambrano from cub fans. 

The who know him better thing is ridiculous.  For 100 different reasons, number 1 probably being Scott Boras.

Putting a ton of stock into two outings where he was likely tipping pitches seems, well, dumb.

The "know him better" argument is not close to being ridiculous.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Number 1 being PEDs. Number 2 being Scott Boras.

I haven't heard this from you before. Please, tell me more.

[MU82]

There has been a ton written on how difficult it is to try put a $ value on WAR. But pulling from a great fangraphs article - - it was about $10.5M per 1.0 WAR in 2017.  If you figure Darvish hits some of his incentives and gets the deal to about $130Mish, thats 12-13 WAR over the life of the deal, or about 2.25 per year.  Considering that Darvish was good for 3.5 WAR last year and 2.6 WAR in his recovery shortened 2016, it looks good for the Cubs to recover value from this deal, even if he's a less than 2.0 WAR player in the last two years of the deal.  That combined with the Cubs open window, need for a top 3 starter and ability to eat a big contract if necessary probably makes this a fine deal.  Again, the most likely factor to flip that (after injury) is if the luxury tax depresses free agent deals moving forward.

WAR, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing!
WAR, huh, yeah
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing!
Say it again ...

[buckchuckler]

Putting a ton of stock into two outings where he was likely tipping pitches seems, well, dumb.

The "know him better" argument is not close to being ridiculous.

Hmm well then, I wonder what the Dodgers and Rangers know about Darvish. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Hmm well then, I wonder what the Dodgers and Rangers know about Darvish.

Well the Rangers wanted him back but didn't have the money to spend and according to Jon Heyman the Dodgers had a 6 year offer for him contingent of if they could move Kemp. So I guess they know he's a good pitcher.

Anything else?

[buckchuckler]

Well the Rangers wanted him back but didn't have the money to spend and according to Jon Heyman the Dodgers had a 6 year offer for him contingent of if they could move Kemp. So I guess they know he's a good pitcher.

Anything else?

Dodgers offered 6 years at 100. 

Cubs had reportedly gone to 4 - 110 on Arrieta earlier this winter.

[TallTitan34]

Dodgers offered 6 years at 100. 

Cubs had reportedly gone to 4 - 110 on Arrieta earlier this winter.

Dodgers couldn't offer more. To offer more they would have had to move money to avoid the lux tax.  Same situation as the Yankees.

The Cubs got a bargain just because those teams weren't there to drive up the price.

[buckchuckler]

Dodgers couldn't offer more. To offer more they would have had to move money to avoid the lux tax.  Same situation as the Yankees.

The Cubs got a bargain just because those teams weren't there to drive up the price.

The Dodgers have been over the tax threshold 5 straight years.  It is nothing more than a convenient excuse.

And the reported 16.67 AAV would have put them over the top threshold anyways.

[MUBurrow]

The Dodgers have been over the tax threshold 5 straight years.  It is nothing more than a convenient excuse.

And the reported 16.67 AAV would have put them over the top threshold anyways.

With the repeater penalties, its incredibly valuable to get under the tax, even for just one year. And I would imagine that if they signed Darvish on the 16.67 AAV deal, they would've packaged Kemp with the prospects necessary get out from under the two years left at 18 per.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Dodgers offered 6 years at 100. 

Cubs had reportedly gone to 4 - 110 on Arrieta earlier this winter.

But that's the point - they did want him back.

And they absolutely want to remain under the tax this year to reset the penalties. Most of those deals that put them over the tax weren't Friedman's doing.

[buckchuckler]

But that's the point - they did want him back.

And they absolutely want to remain under the tax this year to reset the penalties. Most of those deals that put them over the tax weren't Friedman's doing.

But clearly they didn't want him back badly.  6/100 is a non offer for what he had on the table.  Obviously  they didn't want him back as bad as the Cubs.  Darvish made it clear he wanted to be back with  LA.  They didn't make him a priority.  They must know something. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

But clearly they didn't want him back badly.  6/100 is a non offer for what he had on the table.  Obviously  they didn't want him back as bad as the Cubs.  Darvish made it clear he wanted to be back with  LA.  They didn't make him a priority.  They must know something.

This is all sorts of dumb.

[MU82]

$21M for an above average pitcher whose "similar pitchers" (according to Baseball Reference) are Josh Johnson, Garret Cole, Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran.

Last season: 10-12, 3.86 ERA (26th in MLB), 1.163 WHIP (16th in MLB).

Only had 200 IP once in career. Postseason disaster.

What an incredible bargain!

Plus, my sources tell me he's a big PED guy (of course, my sources are wades).

Having said all that ... sure, if I were Theo, I'd have spent $126 of Ricketts' money to sign him, too.

[buckchuckler]

This is all sorts of dumb.

Yeah.  It really is.  Thank you for proving my point.  The "they know him" logic is completely flawed and ignores many many other factors that play into these decisions.  You guys have brought up some and there are still more.

I'm sure all the stuff the cubs know about Arrieta makes your "all kinds of dumb" claim completely different though.

[🏀]

This is all sorts of dumb.

I think you're forgetting buck likes to play the contranian to the extreme.