MLB 2018 Season

[GGGG]

I find Illinois drivers way better than Wisconsin drivers.  They know how to stick with the pace.

[buckchuckler]

I find Illinois drivers way better than Wisconsin drivers.  They know how to stick with the pace.

Wisconsin drivers are slower than this offseason!  Ok well... that's not true.

[cheebs09]

So is Darvish waiting for a better offer? Or trying to play up the collusion angle for the Union by not signing? I have to think once he signs, the dominoes will fall.

[4everwarriors]

Darvish likely waitin' on Cousins and Rodgers signin' furst, hey?

[wadesworld]

If wades wants to have a narrow, parochial view, he can, but it says more about him than drivers from Illinois.  Exceeding 55 can be quite scary for some.

Most speed limits in Wiscosnin are 70 so I have no issue going over 55.

[jesmu84]

Yu to Cubs. 126/6. Up to 150 with incentives

Dodgers and Brewers offered 6 too

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Yu to Cubs. 126/6. Up to 150 with incentives

Dodgers and Brewers offered 6 too

One more year than I thought he'd get but really like the AAV in regards to the luxury tax. Got some reading to do.

[DegenerateDish]

That Darvish contract is certainly going to come back to haunt the Cubs on the back end, yuck.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

That Darvish contract is certainly going to come back to haunt the Cubs on the back end, yuck.

Like most long-term pitching contracts.

You take that contract all day, everyday for $21 million a year.

[DegenerateDish]

Like most long-term pitching contracts.

You take that contract all day, everyday for $21 million a year.

Wrong side of 30.
No trade clause.
Six Years.
History of injuries.
Clubhouse issues.

You can have that deal any day of the week and twice on Sunday. There's no other way to describe it, 6 years is wayyyy too long for Darvish. That's going to be a Heyward type deal for the Cubs again.

[MUBurrow]

For what its worth, traderumors had suggested 160/6 earlier this winter, so its not bad relative to the projection. Until the effect of the luxury tax really kicks in, and the way this offseason has gone, its so so hard to judge this year's deals. Is this offseason the start of a trend? If so, this is a bad deal, maybe historically so. If not, then its probably fine for a big market team like the Cubs.

Will be interesting to see how this impacts the rest of the market, too. Puts a nine figure deal for Arrieta in real doubt. He'd absolutely have to extract a 5th year to get it now.

[wadesworld]

Just glad it wasn’t the Brewers giving him this deal.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Wrong side of 30.
No trade clause.
Six Years.
History of injuries.
Clubhouse issues.

You can have that deal any day of the week and twice on Sunday. There's no other way to describe it, 6 years is wayyyy too long for Darvish. That's going to be a Heyward type deal for the Cubs again.

The Cubs are right in their window. It makes all the sense in the world.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Just glad it wasn’t the Brewers giving him this deal.

Looking forward to the Brewers signing Arrieta for 5 years.

[wadesworld]

Looking forward to the Brewers signing Arrieta for 5 years.

As long as he continues his PED use I’m all in on that. Hopefully he brings enough to share with Braun to get some production out of him again.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

 Darvish has 19.0 fWAR in 832.1 IP since debut in 2012.  In that span, Darvish’s 3.7 WAR per 162 innings is seventh best in MLB behind Kershaw, Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Strasburg and Price.

He made 31 starts last year, was healthy and worth 4 WAR. No signs of diminished velocity and will be in the NL.

This also improves the Cubs bullpen and starting pitching depth as Montgomery is not needed in the rotation.

[GGGG]

As long as he continues his PED use I’m all in on that. Hopefully he brings enough to share with Braun to get some production out of him again.

[DegenerateDish]

The Cubs are right in their window. It makes all the sense in the world.

Let's talk again in 4 years on this deal.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Let's talk again in 4 years on this deal.

Every long-term deal for a pitcher is inherently risky. I'd prefer 5 years, but again, the AAV is very good in terms of what the team needed.

[#UnleashSean]

If wades wants to have a narrow, parochial view, he can, but it says more about him than drivers from Illinois.  Exceeding 55 can be quite scary for some.

As someone who has lived in Wisconsin and Illinois and drives between the two very frequently. Illinois drivers are by far better then Wisconsin. Most wisconsinites have yet to figure out left is pass not camp and zipper merging.

[#UnleashSean]

As long as he continues his PED use I’m all in on that. Hopefully he brings enough to share with Braun to get some production out of him again.

[MU82]

The Cubs are right in their window. It makes all the sense in the world.

And that's really the deal, isn't it?

If Darvish helps the Cubs win one championship but the other 5 years end up being garbage, it will have been worth to the Cubs.

Epstein is a smart guy. I'm sure he is well aware that this contract is unlikely to be a good one for the Cubs down the line.

[Jockey]

As someone who has lived in Wisconsin and Illinois and drives between the two very frequently. Illinois drivers are by far better then Wisconsin. Most wisconsinites have yet to figure out left is pass not camp and zipper merging.

As a lifelong Wisconsinite, I totally agree.

It is hard to find a time day or night when there is not a car camped in the center lane at 55 mph, because they are scared of people merging onto the highway.

When I am in the middle lane on the tollway where the speed limit is 55, I am the slow guy going 78.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

And that's really the deal, isn't it?

If Darvish helps the Cubs win one championship but the other 5 years end up being garbage, it will have been worth to the Cubs.

Epstein is a smart guy. I'm sure he is well aware that this contract is unlikely to be a good one for the Cubs down the line.

When it comes down to it, absolutely.

Epstein made the decision to not trade any of the young core to bring in a starter, which I think was the right decision.

Most of the offensive core is under contract through 2021. In terms of the rotation, all four starters except for Darvish are under contract through 2020. That gives the organization time to develop cheap starting pitching, which has been their biggest failure.

These guys understand risk and know what they're doing. Darvish wasn't a consideration until they determined his market was suppressed and teams like LA and NY we're going to stay under the luxury tax. He's risky but can be dominant.

[MUBurrow]

There has been a ton written on how difficult it is to try put a $ value on WAR. But pulling from a great fangraphs article - - it was about $10.5M per 1.0 WAR in 2017.  If you figure Darvish hits some of his incentives and gets the deal to about $130Mish, thats 12-13 WAR over the life of the deal, or about 2.25 per year.  Considering that Darvish was good for 3.5 WAR last year and 2.6 WAR in his recovery shortened 2016, it looks good for the Cubs to recover value from this deal, even if he's a less than 2.0 WAR player in the last two years of the deal.  That combined with the Cubs open window, need for a top 3 starter and ability to eat a big contract if necessary probably makes this a fine deal.  Again, the most likely factor to flip that (after injury) is if the luxury tax depresses free agent deals moving forward.