MLB 2018 Season

[MUBurrow]

They brought Knebel in during a much higher leverage situation - runner on second with one out and up 2-0.  Jeffress was brought in 4-0 at the beginning of the 9th.

I think this is the way CC is seeing it, and I don't think there will be one guy filling the closer role for the rest of the playoffs. My bet would be that if the Brewers find a way to win six more, Knebel, Jeffress and Hader each throw the last pitch in a win at least once.

And as for when CC pulled Chacin last night, whether we agree or disagree, CC is not going to allow a starter to face a R-L or L-R matchup his third time through the lineup with a man on base the rest of the way. Its the ultimate example of trusting the numbers over feel, and CC feels he has the bullpen option to not break that rule.

[Benny B]

Absolutely not.  The Crew is 2 games away from the pennant and 6 games away from the WS Championship.  You dance with the date you brung.  They ain't doing it without him.  I absolutely LOVED Cous' approach last night.  We're 25 strong.  That's how we roll. (But I'm sure glad it wasn't a 1 run lead!)

This.  In a game where performance is highly mental, bottom of the ninth last night could very well be the inflection point for the remainder of the Brewer's postseason.

[jsglow]

JJ will still log innings, but I wouldn't be opposed to sliding Knebel back to closer, especially if you know you're only going to get 1 ip out of him anyways.  Much better stuff right now, and certainly has experience closing.

Fair statement.  Couns has used him that way recently at times since September 1 return.

[Benny B]

Fair statement.  Couns has used him that way recently at times since September 1 return.

Counsell is playing the metrics.

Why didn't Counsell pull Jeffress after putting runners on 2nd and 3rd?  Look at the matchups:

Bellinger: 0 for 1, 1 IBB
Puig: 0 for 5, 5 K's
Grandal: 2 for 6, 2 K's
Dozier: 3 for 9, 3 K's / Barnes: 0 for 1, 1 K, 1 BB
Taylor: 1 for 3

So runners on 2nd and 3rd... up four runs, the Dodgers - realistically - need at least 2-3 hits (and/or walks) to at least tie the game.

Puig and Grandal are power threats, so either one could tie the game if the prior batter reaches.  Bellinger hasn't faced Jeffress except for an intentional walk earlier in the year, and Puig is 0 for 5 with 5 K's against Jeffress.  Grandal might reach, but he's just as likely to strikeout.  So you roll the dice there knowing that you're going to get to the pitcher's spot with the lead, and neither Dozier nor Barnes is a HR threat.

So even if Bellinger hits a sac fly, if Jeffress can get him out, the Brewers are in great shape with Puig a likely 2nd out but still followed by two batters who are equally likely to hit as they are to strikeout... so even if Grandal or Dozier/Barnes reaches, the odds say the other spot will strike out.

If Bellinger reaches, Counsell most definitely gets somebody up in the pen knowing he can probably let Jeffress face two more batters and still maintain a lead.

As Counsell said, he's not managing to win games, he's managing to win series.  The odds of success with Jeffress in last night's gameplan were still in the Brewers favor, and in executing the plan, it sets them up very nicely for Game 4 having both Hader and Knebel ready to go.  The alternative is taking the "sure" bet with letting Hader pitch the 9th, and now you don't have that weapon at your disposal in Game 4.

The way I look at it, even if pulling Hader and giving the ball to Jeffress in the ninth (in Game 3) decreased the Brewer's odds of winning to 50%, the Brewers are 48-7 in games that Hader pitches and 48-60 in games that he does not.

Even with his October struggles, nobody wants to face Kershaw/Ryu in must-win games... so if winning the series is the goal, having Hader available to pitch Game 4 certainly seems to outweigh the risk of using Jeffress to close out Game 3.

[buckchuckler]

Wow, the Angels are opting out of their ballpark agreement. 

[jsglow]

Counsell is playing the metrics.

Why didn't Counsell pull Jeffress after putting runners on 2nd and 3rd?  Look at the matchups:

Bellinger: 0 for 1, 1 IBB
Puig: 0 for 5, 5 K's
Grandal: 2 for 6, 2 K's
Dozier: 3 for 9, 3 K's / Barnes: 0 for 1, 1 K, 1 BB
Taylor: 1 for 3

So runners on 2nd and 3rd... up four runs, the Dodgers - realistically - need at least 2-3 hits (and/or walks) to at least tie the game.

Puig and Grandal are power threats, so either one could tie the game if the prior batter reaches.  Bellinger hasn't faced Jeffress except for an intentional walk earlier in the year, and Puig is 0 for 5 with 5 K's against Jeffress.  Grandal might reach, but he's just as likely to strikeout.  So you roll the dice there knowing that you're going to get to the pitcher's spot with the lead, and neither Dozier nor Barnes is a HR threat.

So even if Bellinger hits a sac fly, if Jeffress can get him out, the Brewers are in great shape with Puig a likely 2nd out but still followed by two batters who are equally likely to hit as they are to strikeout... so even if Grandal or Dozier/Barnes reaches, the odds say the other spot will strike out.

If Bellinger reaches, Counsell most definitely gets somebody up in the pen knowing he can probably let Jeffress face two more batters and still maintain a lead.

As Counsell said, he's not managing to win games, he's managing to win series.  The odds of success with Jeffress in last night's gameplan were still in the Brewers favor, and in executing the plan, it sets them up very nicely for Game 4 having both Hader and Knebel ready to go.  The alternative is taking the "sure" bet with letting Hader pitch the 9th, and now you don't have that weapon at your disposal in Game 4.

The way I look at it, even if pulling Hader and giving the ball to Jeffress in the ninth (in Game 3) decreased the Brewer's odds of winning to 50%, the Brewers are 48-7 in games that Hader pitches and 48-60 in games that he does not.

Even with his October struggles, nobody wants to face Kershaw/Ryu in must-win games... so if winning the series is the goal, having Hader available to pitch Game 4 certainly seems to outweigh the risk of using Jeffress to close out Game 3.

I think I followed that.  And I texted my son when they brought Hader in that he was getting 2 outs and departing for Jeffress.

[Benny B]

Wow, the Angels are opting out of their ballpark agreement.

Can't believe it took this long... I'd have thought they would have opted-out as soon for safety reasons many years ago after having two fans fall from the upper deck (one into the crowd, one onto the promenade) during the same game.

[MU82]

Hader threw 8 pitches.  He's fine for both these games if the proper situation presents itself.

You're probably right, but they were 8 pressure pitches and he also had to warm up. So who knows with today's pitchers?

This is how the Brewers have won all year.  No need to change that up now.

Managers make strategic changes all the time during the postseason. A 7-game series against a great team with a pennant on the line is a lot different than a three-game May series against the Reds.

[jsglow]

You're probably right, but they were 8 pressure pitches and he also had to warm up. So who knows with today's pitchers?

Managers make strategic changes all the time during the postseason. A 7-game series against a great team with a pennant on the line is a lot different than a three-game May series against the Reds.

82, you're not really suggesting you know more about this than the guy that was just named Manager of the Year by Sporting News?

[Benny B]

You're probably right, but they were 8 pressure pitches and he also had to warm up. So who knows with today's pitchers?

"With today's pitchers?"  Next thing you'll be opining on how Clayton Kershaw is a 23-skidoo next to Walter Johnson or Kid Nichols.

[MU82]

82, you're not really suggesting you know more about this than the guy that was just named Manager of the Year by Sporting News?

No sir. Just exercising my right as a fan to second-guess!

"With today's pitchers?"  Next thing you'll be opining on how Clayton Kershaw is a 23-skidoo next to Walter Johnson or Kid Nichols.

Kershaw is an iron man today because he usually lasts 7 whole innings.

[buckchuckler]

82, you're not really suggesting you know more about this than the guy that was just named Manager of the Year by Sporting News?

Why does that mean he is above questioning?  Jefferss has been terrible.  Hader has been unhittable.  It was a questionable move that worked out because he ran into hitters that are struggling as well.  Not necessarily because it was a good move.

[buckchuckler]

"With today's pitchers?"  Next thing you'll be opining on how Clayton Kershaw is a 23-skidoo next to Walter Johnson or Kid Nichols.

That seems like a completely justifiable criticism of today's game to me. I gotta go, got some clouds to yell at.

[jsglow]

Why does that mean he is above questioning?  Jefferss has been terrible.  Hader has been unhittable.  It was a questionable move that worked out because he ran into hitters that are struggling as well.  Not necessarily because it was a good move.

He's not.  And armchairing is always fun.  But too many armchairs (not point at 82 at all) think they actually know better.  Heck, we see it on scoop all the time!

[MU82]

Well, coaches and/or managers are human and they make mistakes quite often. Some even admit to it occasionally. Sometimes, educated fans do get a situation right that coaches/managers don't.

For example, I would never say I know more about football than Dick Jauron did, but he and his Bears staff made a LOT of mistakes.

Gotta run to umpire a youth baseball game now. I'll probably be told about all the mistakes I allegedly make ... and I know a hell of a lot more about baseball rules than all the parents who'll be yelling at me!

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

As nervous as Jeffress made me, I was glad the move was made. Jeffress needs to get his groove back, and while loading the bases in the 9th isn't the way to do that....maybe working out of that jam without surrendering a run is.

[MUfan12]

As nervous as Jeffress made me, I was glad the move was made. Jeffress needs to get his groove back, and while loading the bases in the 9th isn't the way to do that....maybe working out of that jam without surrendering a run is.

I missed this completely as I paced around the room. Wonder if Yazzy poked the bear.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1839170262866838&id=57166781694

[buckchuckler]

I missed this completely as I paced around the room. Wonder if Yazzy poked the bear.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1839170262866838&id=57166781694

I think it was more Grandal being in a complete and total slump.  His AB was just plain terrible.

[MU82]

Grandal looks like a low Single-A player right now. Embarrassingly bad both at the plate and in the field.

[CreightonWarrior]

Schoop was a major bust.

[GB Warrior]

Not sure why School is on this roster let alone this lineup. But happy effing birthday I guess

[buckchuckler]

Schoop was a major bust.

That was just a terrible AB.  I seem to be thinking that quite a lot.

[CreightonWarrior]

Cain has been terrible and I think it’s holding Yelich bat. Another awful at bat right there for him.

[wadesworld]

Machado (and Puig) is such a dirty douche (to put it nicely).

[GB Warrior]

Is this what purgatory feels like